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19-11-2019, 23:35   #181
Gaoth Laidir
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Tropical Storm Sebastian has formed today northeast of the Leeward Islands but will curve northwards and become extratropical before dissipating in a couple of days. Currentl max winds 40 knots.
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01-12-2019, 13:05   #182
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The 2019 hurricane season has officially come to an end.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/a...n-comes-to-end

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November 26, 2019 — The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on November 30, was marked by tropical activity that churned busily from mid-August through October.

The season produced 18 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three were “major” (Category 3, 4 or 5). NOAA’s outlook called for 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes, and accurately predicted the overall activity of the season.

“During each and every hurricane season, thousands of workers across the federal government coordinate with NOAA to safeguard Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “From advanced warnings to business aid, the Department of Commerce stands ready to help Americans from a storm’s formation to long after its dissipation.”

This year marks the fourth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The only other period on record that produced four consecutive above-normal seasons was 1998-2001. Also this year, five tropical cyclones formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which ties a record with 2003 and 1957 for the most storms to form in that region. Of those, three — Barry, Imelda and Nestor — made landfall in the U.S.

“NOAA provided around-the-clock support to communities before, during and after each tropical weather threat,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “The expertise of our forecasters, coupled with upgrades like those to the Global Forecast System model and our next-generation environmental satellites, helped NOAA and its partners save lives and protect property all season long.”

A graphic listing 2019 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.The 18 named storms that formed are designated with a red slash through their name. They are listed in alphabetical order: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah and Sebastien.

The three major hurricanes this season were Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo. Hurricane Dorian is tied with three other hurricanes — the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert and 2005’s Hurricane Wilma — as the second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin in terms of wind (185 mph). In all, four storms made landfall in the U.S. during the 2019 season: Barry, Dorian, Imelda and Nestor.

“This season’s activity ramped up in mid-August during the normal peak of the season, as we predicted,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The above-normal activity is consistent with the ongoing high-activity era, driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which entered a warm phase in 1995. Conditions that favored more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms this year included a stronger West African monsoon, warmer Atlantic waters, and weak vertical wind shear across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.”
An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Hurricane response by the numbers
During the 2019 season, NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft and crews flew 57 missions over 430 hours, which along with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve, provided critical data that aided in storm forecasting and research.

In addition, NOAA’s King Air crew collected more than 26,939 aerial images covering more than 4,300 square miles of areas affected by Hurricane Dorian, including shoreline, ports and impacted inland areas of several Bahamian Islands to aid in emergency response.

NOAA and NOAA-supported researchers from the U.S. and Caribbean deployed 30 autonomous ocean glider missions in the Atlantic this season, which provided more than 75,000 observations of ocean temperature and salinity to operational hurricane forecast models. Ocean temperature and salinity data provide important clues about hurricane intensification.
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01-12-2019, 19:43   #183
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https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1...522060288?s=20
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03-12-2019, 19:27   #184
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Some data emerging that contradicts that, could possibly be one more hurricane.
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03-12-2019, 20:19   #185
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Originally Posted by Adrift View Post
Some data emerging that contradicts that, could possibly be one more hurricane.
Any link to that info?
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03-12-2019, 21:51   #186
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I don't see anything in the current tropical weather discussion or on the 16-day GFS output that would suggest another storm, but in theory anything getting a name this month would be included in the 2019 season. Anything that formed after New Years (as in 1955) would go to the next season. For a season with 18 named storms, this only produced one memorable storm (Dorian) and had a higher ratio of tropical storms to hurricanes than almost all the rest (the count is 18/6/3). When I have time, I will look into how many others got past 15 and had this high a ratio of tropical storms. It's partly due to the enhanced ability to find the weaker named storms with full satellite coverage, some previous seasons might have had a few that went undetected. They are also not shy about naming the marginal ones in recent years.
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06-12-2019, 10:09   #187
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I had some time to look into the numbers. Of all previous seasons with 16 or more named storms, the lowest number of hurricanes previously was seven in a number of different years (including 1936, 1949, 1954, 2003 and 2011). So I guess 2019 is just a slightly less prolific year, and also some of those had very memorable canes (like Hazel 1954). The 2013 season was a horrendous flop at 14/2/0.

1932 had 15 storms with 6 becoming hurricanes, 4 that became major. That's one similar season count to 2019. There was also a cat-5 in the Bahamas that year. The winter of 1932-33 was dominated by unusually strong mid-Atlantic high pressure areas. Another similar count was 15/6/2 in 2007.
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16-01-2020, 00:32   #188
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The NHC have reanalysed the 1961-65 hurricane seasons and come up some significant ammendments to the stats, not least of all their official acknowledgment that Debbie in 1961 became extratropical at 43 N and therefore did not hit Ireland as a hurricane, something that's been obvious for years.

This is a general point that gets lost on people sometimes. Nine new storms in just this 5-year period. How many others were there undetected in years before satellites?

Here are their main findings.

Quote:
Some of the highlights of the revisions made to the database
include:
Quote:

• Nine new tropical storms and hurricanes during these five years were
discovered and added to the database



• No Atlantic tropical storms were removed (though one Northeast Pacific
tropical storm was removed – Simone, 1961)

• Hurricane Debbie, 1961, was analyzed to have become extratropical near 43 N (instead of striking Ireland as a hurricane at 55 N) • Six hurricanes were identified as impacting the United States, one less
than originally identified (Cindy, 1963 now considered a tropical storm)



• The hurricane with the worst impact on the United States during these five seasons was Betsy in 1965. It killed 75 people in Florida and Louisiana and was the first ever billion dollar hurricane for U.S. damage. Betsy was upgraded to a Category 4 from a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at landfall in Louisiana, as it is reassessed that it had maximum sustained surface winds of 115 kt (130 mph) and a central pressure of 946 mb.



Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 17-01-2020 at 10:26.
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