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Epsom Derby 2019

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    They're trying to get a better price on Sir Dragonet so the stable lads and lasses can get on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Andrew00 wrote: »
    They're trying to get a better price on Sir Dragonet so the stable lads and lasses can get on

    Scutter


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    The only scenario I see Sir Dragonet not running at Epsom would be if the ground was too firm. Telecaster looks like he is a top of the ground horse, they could be worried about him outstaying Sir Dragonet on firm ground.

    I don't think Aidan O'Brien is too concerned about the stable staff getting on either. They will have plenty of opportunities this summer to get a nice price horse over the line without having to worry about winning the Epsom Derby.


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭WicklowBrave


    Makes sense tbh. Having to shell out 20k or whatever it is when they already have Broome, AvD and others. I know 20k is pocket change to the lads but it’s ridiculous they have to pay it nonetheless. Those trials should be win and you’re in. Likely to get soft ground at Chantilly aswell whereas probably come up like a road at Epsom. Having a Prix Du Jockey Club on his CV instead of ‘the’ Derby won’t do his prospective stallion career any harm either the way the Derby is going. A G1 over 10f be a bonus if anything as long as he can back it up for the rest of the season in the Irish Derby, ICS, Arc etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭WicklowBrave


    Actually only clocked he probably has to be supplemented for the French Derby aswell although I don’t know what the cost is? So yeah who knows lmao.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    I think the supplementary fee is 85k not 20k which doesn't make sense as u say when they have enough firepower anyway to win it


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭WicklowBrave


    Andrew00 wrote: »
    I think the supplementary fee is 85k not 20k which doesn't make sense as u say when they have eniugh firepower anyway to win it

    Is it 85k?? Jesus. Dunno where I got the 20k from, think that’s for the Champion Hurdle haha.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    The other really telling item re Sir Dragonet is that neither Paddy Power or Boyles will price him up for the Arc.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-2019/winner

    I usually don't get too involved with Antepost betting, but he won't be 20/1 with Ladbrokes for the Arc after either Derby. No way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    It will be interesting to see if Madhmoon and Line of Duty will be declared for the Irish Guineas tomorrow or held back for Epsom


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    I think the French Derby would be a good race for Madhmoon to go for. 10f right up his street but looks like they'll go to Epsom.

    He's a proper good horse and I think he'll win a group race of some sort this year


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    I've laid Sir Dragonet (3.6/1) and Too Darn Hot (4.63/1) for the English Derby, and anything else that comes into a ridiculously short price will get the same treatment. :)
    :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Aidan O'Brien has 25 horses in the English Derby of the 97 entries.
    John Gosden has 14 horses in the English Derby.

    The chances of them supplementing horses must be slim.
    My guess is Tadcaster will not be supplemented.


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭WicklowBrave


    Madhmoon goes to Epsom according to KP and he has a huge chance. He will stay the trip on his head I’m convinced of that. He will prob find one the Ballydoyle nags too good on the day though.

    Anthony van Dyck only turned 3 today I noticed. He is still very much the one for me. His performances in those 2yo 7f races were outstanding when you consider he was only in those races because Ballydoyle had nothing else. 1.25l defeat to Quorto is outstanding form when he really needed a mile as a 2yo. Will improve a stone from his Lingfield run. He’s a superior horse to Broome as is Madhmoon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,055 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Is it 85k?? Jesus. Dunno where I got the 20k from, think that’s for the Champion Hurdle haha.


    I believe it is and always has been 10% of the winners purse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Of course the Derby picture is still as clear as mud with the big trials out of the way.

    I'd prefer Sir Dragonet's chances around the bends of 12f at Epsom to his chances against Persian King in the 10 1/2f Jockey Club.

    Maybe Coolmore have another Epsom winner ready as far as they are concerned, maybe it'll rain and Sir Dragonet will head to Epsom. Maybe Telecaster will run or he won't run, Gosden could even change his mind about running Too Darn Hot like he did last year with Roaring Lion in last year's 2,000 Guineas.

    It's a game of darts this year... and the Oaks picture isn't any clearer.:confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    Bangkok could be a great feel good story considering the connections to the Leicester City tragedy last year. De Sousa on board too, he is due a Classic win.
    The horse himself has beaten Telecaster too, so the form is there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Days between previous race and English Derby win
    Year Winner Days
    1988 Kahyasi 25
    1989 Nashwan 32
    1990 Quest for Fame 29
    1991 Generous 32
    1992 Dr Devious 32
    1993 Commander in Chief 20
    1994 Erhaab 20
    1995 Lammtarra 302
    1996 Shaamit 217
    1997 Benny the Dip 24
    1998 High-Rise 28
    1999 Oath 30
    2000 Sinndar 27
    2001 Galileo 27
    2002 High Chaparral 27
    2003 Kris Kin 30
    2004 North Light 24
    2005 Motivator 23
    2006 Sir Percy 28
    2007 Authorized 16
    2008 New Approach 14
    2009 Sea the Stars 35
    2010 Workforce 23
    2011 Pour Moi 28
    2012 Camelot 28
    2013 Ruler of the World 23
    2014 Australia 35
    2015 Golden Horn 23
    2016 Harzand 55
    2017 Wings of Eagles 23
    2018 Masar 28

    Average 42 (27)
    Median 28 (27)
    (if you remove the two at 217 and 302 days)

    How do the 2019 entries stack up?
    Win Days Derby 2019
    1 14 Western Australia
    1 16 Japan; Humanitarian; Line Of Duty; Logician
    2 20 Anthony Van Dyck (21); Broome; Pablo Escobar; South Pacific (21); Sovereign
    5 23 Circus Maximus; Mohawk
    2 24 Norway
    1 25
    3 27
    5 28 King Of Change; Madhmoon
    1 29
    2 30
    3 32
    2 35 Bangkok (36)
    1 55 Kasaman (44); Sydney Opera House
    1 217 Mount Everest (244)
    1 302

    Just in case he runs I put €14.87 at odds of 401.06 on King Of Change.
    He stayed on well for second at 66/1 in the English 2000 Guineas.
    He is by Farhh who had Dee Ex Bee 2nd in the 2018 Derby.
    The dam of King Of Change was a 6f horse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    It looks like Sir Dragonet will be supplemented for the English derby.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Norway = Wings of Eagles Part 2.

    Not as obvious as Wings, but not out of the question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    Lads stop worrying yer minds. AVD wins this. He was all the rage in the antepost last year and has only enhanced his claims since then. Throw out the Breeders cup run.
    He should be favourite and id nearly say he will go off favourite.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    
    
    aidankkk wrote: »
    Norway = Wings of Eagles Part 2.

    Not as obvious as Wings, but not out of the question.

    He's a place prospect for sure, there was a lot to like about how he ran on in the Vase and O'Brien has been careful to point out that his horses have deliberately not been trained hard for their trials this year, so most of them could come on in leaps and bounds.

    I don't think Norway has the physique at this stage of his career to win a big race like the Derby, his brother Ruler Of The World was physically impressive looking at this stage of his career and Wings Of Eagles always had a quality physique. Norway already looked lean in the Vase, if he's going to blossom into a world beater it should take more than a few weeks for the transformation.

    In the Vase Sir Dragonet was bigger, stronger, faster and showed that he had the kind of X-factor that wins Derbies. I'd like to think there was a non O'Brien trained horse with that kind of potential as a value alternative to the O'Brien dart-fest. When O'Brien goes mob handed it's usually not a great sign of confidence from Coolmore. If there is going to be a Derby winner outside of the O'Brien stable it ain't jumping out of the field, yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Lads this sir dragonet is the biggest talking horse in ages.

    For my money van dycke is Moore’s mount and no 1 hope


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭WicklowBrave


    Hon the Dycke.

    APOB said today he has 8 for the race but I fear Anthony might be the one they bring to Chantilly. They might be happy to leave Sir Dragonet at Epsom to beat his stablemates. They were running AvD over 7 as a 2yo and they might fancy going to France where he would get a lot of kudos if he went over and beat Persian King. Also, APOB has never won the PdJC so it would make sense for them tbh. We’ll see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Bit crazy to think they could run all 8.

    How many are currently in the race, 20+ I assume? Could be messy coming round tattenham corner, I'd be avoiding whatever Moore is on :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    I'll be sticking with Japan, even though he's now same price as I took ap. Still think he has a massive chance, though would not like very fast ground for him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    It looks like there are 19 still in the race, or expected to be.
    Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
    Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster

    I got out an old Nick Mordin book in which he lists characteristics of previous English Derby winners.

    Rule 1: All but one of the last 24 Derby winners who made their debuts before the last week of July of their two-year-old season went on to reach the first four in a Group race at two.
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
    Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Pablo Escobarr
    (I gave a pass to horses where this did not apply i.e. they did not race before the end of July as a 2yo)

    Rule 2: If raced at two won over 7f+
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Bangkok; Hiroshima; Private Secretary

    Rule 3 After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Pablo Escobarr;

    Rule 4 UK Debut after June at Newbury or Newmarket (obviously this does not apply to Irish horses (n/a)
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Line Of Duty; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Surfman;


    That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
    I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
    Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
    Rule 6: won a Group race

    Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

    Rule 6: won a Group race
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sovereign; Surfman

    That leaves four horses who pass all six tests (or the tests did not apply e.g. they did not run as 2yos)
    Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster

    Another test is did they win 50+% of their races
    Anthony Van Dyck 4/8
    Broome 3/7
    Sir Dragonet 2/2
    Telecaster 2/3

    Doubts about the four
    Anthony van Dyck:
    He beat Pablo Escobar in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
    Pablo Escobar failed 5 of the 6 tests for a Derby winner above.
    Before that Anthony van Dyck was beaten in his three previous races.
    Broome:
    He won his two races in 2019 well.
    A little concern is he beat the same horses twice (Sovereign; Pythion; Guaranteed) and he appears better with give in the ground.
    Sir Dragonet:
    He is very hard to assess.
    He has won his two races easily, but both were on soft.
    His pedigree says the Derby should suit.
    Bangkok beat Telecaster 1 1/4 l in March 2019 and beat Technician 1 1/4 l in April.
    Sir Dragonet beat Technician 14 1/2 l in May.
    Technician had won over 12f in April.
    Telecaster:
    He had a hard race in the Dante Stakes which is only 16 days before the Derby. He was beaten by Bangkok in a 10f maiden in 2019.
    Bangkok had failed to win in three races as a 2yo, 7f, 7f, 8f.
    Telecaster is not entered in the Derby.

    My guess is
    1. Sir Dragonet
    2. Broome


  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭famagusta


    What odds Aidan to train the first five home?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭akelly02


    It looks like there are 19 still in the race, or expected to be.
    Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
    Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster

    I got out an old Nick Mordin book in which he lists characteristics of previous English Derby winners.

    Rule 1: All but one of the last 24 Derby winners who made their debuts before the last week of July of their two-year-old season went on to reach the first four in a Group race at two.
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan;
    Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Pablo Escobarr
    (I gave a pass to horses where this did not apply i.e. they did not race before the end of July as a 2yo)

    Rule 2: If raced at two won over 7f+
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Bangkok; Hiroshima; Private Secretary

    Rule 3 After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level
    Pass: Alfaatik; Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Pablo Escobarr;

    Rule 4 UK Debut after June at Newbury or Newmarket (obviously this does not apply to Irish horses (n/a)
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Japan; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Sir Dragonet; Sovereign; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Line Of Duty; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Surfman;


    That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
    I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
    Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
    Rule 6: won a Group race

    Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

    Rule 6: won a Group race
    Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster
    Fail: Alfaatik; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Private Secretary; Sovereign; Surfman

    That leaves four horses who pass all six tests (or the tests did not apply e.g. they did not run as 2yos)
    Anthony Van Dyck; Broome; Sir Dragonet; Telecaster

    Another test is did they win 50+% of their races
    Anthony Van Dyck 4/8
    Broome 3/7
    Sir Dragonet 2/2
    Telecaster 2/3

    Doubts about the four
    Anthony van Dyck:
    He beat Pablo Escobar in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
    Pablo Escobar failed 5 of the 6 tests for a Derby winner above.
    Before that Anthony van Dyck was beaten in his three previous races.
    Broome:
    He won his two races in 2019 well.
    A little concern is he beat the same horses twice (Sovereign; Pythion; Guaranteed) and he appears better with give in the ground.
    Sir Dragonet:
    He is very hard to assess.
    He has won his two races easily, but both were on soft.
    His pedigree says the Derby should suit.
    Bangkok beat Telecaster 1 1/4 l in March 2019 and beat Technician 1 1/4 l in April.
    Sir Dragonet beat Technician 14 1/2 l in May.
    Technician had won over 12f in April.
    Telecaster:
    He had a hard race in the Dante Stakes which is only 16 days before the Derby. He was beaten by Bangkok in a 10f maiden in 2019.
    Bangkok had failed to win in three races as a 2yo, 7f, 7f, 8f.
    Telecaster is not entered in the Derby.

    My guess is
    1. Sir Dragonet
    2. Broome




    Van dycke didn’t win at 10f + as a 2 yr old ?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    famagusta wrote: »
    What odds Aidan to train the first five home?

    I would wait until the final decs and then do a trifecta or quad pick etc. This will give a better return than any bookie will. I doubt they will run five anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I would wait until the final decs and then do a trifecta or quad pick etc. This will give a better return than any bookie will. I doubt they will run five anyway.

    I seen somewhere it may have been PP but it was 10/1 for AOB 1-2-3 or 11/4 for 1-2.

    Thought it was plenty short enough on the 1-2-3 anyway.


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