Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy · 19-04-2018 11:21pm #1

Hi guys

Just speaking to Del today and we got talking about how many on here follow. Del said, he didn't think there was more than 10 people now, what with the bad run I have just being going through. I would just like to let whoever is interested know that I will be sending an email to Del each night before 8.00pm and another before 11.15am the next morning.
I have given Del permission to post both emails on this thread.

Del has also said, one reason why people would not follow this thread is they do not envisage it being run (A) MUCH LONGER or (B) no reasoning for selections.

So to get us all on the one page (so to speak) I have decided to post the emails I send the english guys up here and secondly

I will give the selections to Del to post up here until 20th April 2019
That's one whole year so if you want to follow us for a fiver a point you are welcome.

The cynics among you, will be asking, whats behind all this,

Answer: nothing really just a bit of craic.

So let the fun or misery begin.

4.45 Baby ticker €40 e/w 22/1
Baby ticker's last race was over 18f at Haydock on heavy ground. She was pushed along early by her jockey in that race and I thought although the step up in distance is questionable, the slower pace they will go over the 3m may help her relax during the race.
If anyone can watch the Haydock race back on the internet, she was on the inside rail, glued to it really until the last two furlongs were the jockey pulled her out and she ran on well to finish 5th.

Regarding the trainer, in 2013/14 season his best ever he trained 8 winners from 60 runners with a £1 stake returning £22.25.
This season he is 8 winners from 43 runners with a £1 stake returning a nice £36.50 profit.
So we can take two things from the above info

1. the trainer has found a way he did not know before of getting his horses fitter at home
2. he has also found away of getting winners at big prices, ie hiding the horses ability from handicapper and bookmaker.

Therefore he is just the trainer we are looking for.
(regardless of what happens Baby ticker today as there will be other big priced winners from this yard now they know what they are doing is improving the horses chances of winning.

Hope if you join in, you enjoy yourself.

Jerry.

BTW, I am not a professional so FEEL FREE to point out any flaws you see in my selections however there is a condition

It must be before the race. No AFTER TIMING.

143 bets
19 winners

-€435

hobie21 · 20-04-2018 8:46am

Great idea with reasoning behind selections. Good luck.

razorhead · 20-04-2018 9:44am

del roy wrote: »

Hi guys

Just speaking to Del today and we got talking about how many on here follow. Del said, he didn't think there was more than 10 people now, what with the bad run I have just being going through.

Jerry, i'd say you'll find there are more than 10!!!!
Best of luck with the year coming and thanks for sharing with Del

del roy · 20-04-2018 10:04am

Razor
I would say it has more to do with the guys in the U.K. I understand from Jerry the number of people he is dealing with is 45 if all 45 pass it on to one other person, that's 90.
That would be fine if only Jerry fancied it but if the connections fancy it and are having a go as well it will end up like yesterdays horse, King Lud..66/1 into 14s.

Some of the long time lads will remember this one back in 2014 when Jerry was going through a purple patch

Monday 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1

5/1>>>>2/1>>>>>won 6/4fav. (no non runners or rule 4).

I can only assume a lot of lads where following him back then.

I am lucky as I get the bets after Jerry and his group get on. I would recommend if anyone on here is following for even a fiver a point, that they use the notification facility on this thread as with the amount of people following Jerry if he gives three or four decent price winners there will be a lot of restricted account holders on here.

Anyway lets hope we have a bit of craic and more importantly win some money.

Btw I will get the email from Jerry 40 minutes after he gives it to his lads. He has told them them what he is doing as some of them read this thread. They don't mind as they all get on asap when he sends the bets.

del roy · 20-04-2018 11:06am

3.45 Romain de senam 2 pts win €40 win 7/2

Paul Nichols was very sweet on this one for Cheltenham until the weather destroyed any chance he had of winning. Here is what he thought before the weather changed..
There is a good prize in Romain De Senam who will be suited by drying ground and needs to go left handed. He started the season very well and is in good form at home after a mid winter break.
Only last October on good ground Romain de senam beat Double Shuffle by 7L with Ultra gold back in 3rd. That’s really good form going into the Ayr race today
I see there is quite a bit of money for it this.

[Deleted User] · 20-04-2018 2:54pm

Gone out to 4s, if anyone is interested

clevtrev · 20-04-2018 3:45pm

11-2 now - seems to have thrown a wobbler at the start

del roy · 20-04-2018 5:03pm

well that wasn't a great start however we will rock on and see what happens, I thought Baby ticker was coming to join the leaders but clearly the 3m today was too far.

145 bets
19 winners

-€515

Widdensushi · 20-04-2018 5:59pm

del roy wrote: »

well that wasn't a great start however we will rock on and see what happens, I thought Baby ticker was coming to join the leaders but clearly the 3m today was too far.

145 bets
19 winners

-€515

If you are starting again would you be as well to go from 0

del roy · 20-04-2018 7:09pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

If you are starting again would you be as well to go from 0

I didn't want to wipe the slate clean as that's what I am down from following this session, if people think we should start a fresh from today

give a thank you to this and I will go by it.

Ayr 2.55 I'm a game changer 2pt e/w 12/1

email to follow

del roy · 21-04-2018 10:06am

Ayr 2.55 I'm a game changer 2pt e/w 12/1
(ALL BETS WILL BE POINTS ONLY) I am following to €20 per point but each to their own.

A 33/1 shot when the weights first came out for this race I'm a game changer is a fresh horse and this race was suggested by the trainer to the owners last year. The horse is two from two at Ludlow, a course which differs somewhat from Ayr however here are my thoughts

I'm a game changer seems to travel quite easily working his way thru fields, although this is his toughest test so far I am looking at the angle that this field will travel faster (pace increase) which will hopefully suit I'm a game changer.
The 3rd horse in the Ludlow race was 3 from 3 at Ludlow so the form is solid.
The Hobbs yard have had a quite year, operating on a lowly 13% this season however since the 8th April Hobbs has had
33 runners which 6 where fav, the 6 fav's finished
7/4f 2nd
11/4j 1st
9/4f 1st
11/4f 6th
9/4f 1st
2/1f 2nd
we can take from the above that the horses he expects to run well, DO.
It is a step up in class however the faster pace, the horse is fresher than most and the fact that we know this race was this horses target since last year plus the 12/1 price are some stats that we have on our side.
Also I do think Jockey's are the worst tipster's, I always pick my selections first based on form/course form/trainer form and other things I do like to check out what the jockeys opinion is, here's what Richard Johnson thinks

My next ride is I’m A Game Changer in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (14.55).

Philip [Hobbs] and the owners have been very patient with him and kept him back before he won well at Ludlow earlier in the month.

This is a bit of a step up in class, but he’s well in on official ratings and I’d be pretty hopeful of him getting involved at the finish.

I’m expecting him to go well and I think he could easily outrun his odds.

Lets hope for once this jockey knows what he is talking about.

Jerry

This is the only bet today.

del roy · 21-04-2018 3:45pm

3 bets
-10 pts

del roy · 25-04-2018 11:22am

4.50 lingfield 2nd 7.1
Great shot sam 6/1 2pt e/w

This is info stuff.

4 bets
-9.2pts

the whole year inn · 25-04-2018 5:09pm

del roy wrote: »

4.50 lingfield 2nd 7.1
Great shot sam 6/1 2pt e/w

This is info stuff.

4 bets
-9.2pts

2nd went off at 7s

del roy · 26-04-2018 9:58am

6.05 a great view 15/2 2pts e/w powers 6 places
This horse ran a really good race at Cheltenham, finishing like a train up the hill to finish 6th. He made a bad mistake at the 2nd last and lost momentum but gathered himself together and fairly flew up the hill. With the long run from the second last hurdle to the last hurdle this course should be perfect for A great view
Already a course winner over 2m on heavy going.
He has only raced in four races with 16 runners or more resulting in a
6/23
5/16
2/29
5/17
Obviously the bigger field races are run at a faster pace (most times) which suits A great view, 15/2 6 places is in my view a great e/w bet.

Jerry

del roy · 26-04-2018 10:23am

6.05 a great view 15/2 2pts e/w powers 6 places
This horse ran a really good race at Cheltenham, finishing like a train up the hill to finish 6th. He made a bad mistake at the 2nd last and lost momentum but gathered himself together and fairly flew up the hill. With the long run from the second last hurdle to the last hurdle this course should be perfect for A great view
Already a course winner over 2m on heavy going.
He has only raced in four races with 16 runners or more resulting in a
6/23
5/16
2/29
5/17
Obviously the bigger field races are run at a faster pace (most times) which suits A great view, 15/2 6 places is in my view a great e/w bet.

Jerry

3.55 bobo mac 2pts e/w 9/1

Trainer has two in it and as Del says I have an almost 100% record of getting it wrong. However this horse reverts back to hurdles after falling twice in his last couple of races. The falls were actually in pretty hot races, looking back at his last four chase races, the four winners were

Joe Farrell...scottish national winner
Coo star sivola....2018 festival winner
Terrefort...2018 festival 2nd and 2018 Aintree winner
Red rising...currently rated 142, fell when 2nd to him giving him 3LB.

Cheek pieces on for the first time, top rated horse in the field is 135, BoBo really will not meet anything of the class of horse like the above four.

9/1 seems very fair price.

del roy · 26-04-2018 3:54pm

Trainer has two in it and as Del says I have an almost 100% record of getting it wrong.

second horse getting backed 5 minutes before the off.

bookman2 · 26-04-2018 4:01pm

top bombing!!!!

betfair sp was 37.7!

del roy · 26-04-2018 4:04pm

3.55 bobo mac 2pts e/w 9/1 1st 25/1 returns a massive 62pts

what a drift, 25/1 winner.

this will ensure we have a bit of craic,

nice one Jerry.

daingeanrob · 26-04-2018 4:07pm

fair play. he ran a good race all along. 25/1 wow

razorhead · 26-04-2018 4:12pm

del roy wrote: »

Trainer has two in it and as Del says I have an almost 100% record of getting it wrong.

second horse getting backed 5 minutes before the off.

Nice to break that 100% record Del, fair dues, some drift and to win...

del roy · 26-04-2018 4:29pm

razorhead wrote: »

Nice to break that 100% record Del, fair dues, some drift and to win...

Yes Razor but it had to be said, one thing about this thread, from the start I DON'T sugar coat anything.
I once told Jerry we could have a system when if he picked a horse in a race where the trainer had two runners, plunge on the runner Jerry didn't give.
He did laugh but only slightly as when you put the type of money he puts down, laughing at losers is not funny.

Lady Haywire · 26-04-2018 6:17pm

Fair play!!!:eek::D

racso1975 · 26-04-2018 6:28pm

208/1 double.....can't complain about that.....except I wasn't on it so yes I can complain 😃😃😃

the whole year inn · 26-04-2018 6:31pm

racso1975 wrote: »

208/1 double.....can't complain about that.....except I wasn't on it so yes I can complain 😃😃😃

anyone on the double want to do some aftertiming?

del roy · 26-04-2018 7:33pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

anyone on the double want to do some aftertiming?

Lovely one if you were but a year full of losing doubles and trebles will put a big dint in your profit.

That's assuming there will be something left over, next year.

del roy · 26-04-2018 7:48pm

3.55 bobo mac 2pts e/w 9/1 1st 25/1 returns a massive 62pts
6.05 a great view 15/2 2pts e/w powers 6 places 1st returns 18.75pts

returns for day.....+80.75pts

6 bets
2 winners
+71.5pts

3.35 Khafoo shemani 1pt e/w 16/1
email to follow

del roy · 26-04-2018 9:02pm

3.35 Khafoo shememi 1pt e/w 16/1
Firstly, Addeybb could be anything and a rating of 109 could easily be a slap in the face to the handicapper. However there are 8 runners and Khafoo shememi e/w at 16/1 may just be a better bet. Some stats in our favour, Sandown form reads 113 ok the two wins were only listed races however he is fit having spent some of the winter racing in Maydan, Ryan Moore in the saddle, 16/1 and the trainer is 11 winers from 54 runners the last 14 days 20%, even I am not operating a strike rate that good.

4.20 Bravissimo 1pt e/w 20/1
Bravissimo looks well handicapped to me, looks like Willie has given him two runs around here over the last year with what I presume was a plan to come here at some stage.
Currently rated 126, he seems well in compared to some of the horses he was racing against over the last 12 months. The plus side is Mullins is in red hot form at Punchestown, really low weight which around here over 2m5f will be a big help, tongue tie for the first time, he has raced at the course before. Step up in trip will suit
The negatives are we know nothing about the jockey, Miss Kate Farrell (7). She is however 1 from 2 in chases so that’s something. Too early to say whether Kate will be a plus or a negative but with 10st-3LB and Kate taking 7LB off there will be worst 20/1 shots running tomorrow.

Jerry

P.S
For the newbies following, one winning day does not mean an increase in the stake whatever was a point today should be the same stake tomorrow. We are here for a year and if we stick to the plan we should be able to have a bit of craic with the thread.

Del

ballyhagan · 26-04-2018 10:05pm

del roy wrote: »

3.55 bobo mac 2pts e/w 9/1 1st 25/1 returns a massive 62pts
6.05 a great view 15/2 2pts e/w powers 6 places 1st returns 18.75pts

returns for day.....+80.75pts

6 bets
2 winners
+71.5pts

3.35 Khafoo shemani 1pt e/w 16/1
email to follow

Great day today. Keep it up. Best of luck for the rest of the year.

realdanbreen · 27-04-2018 8:22am

the whole year inn wrote: »

anyone on the double want to do some aftertiming?

Had him in a winning Trixie but took the 9-1 price, still I'm happy as Larry!:D

del roy · 27-04-2018 8:26am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Had him in a winning Trixie but took the 9-1 price, still I'm happy as Larry!:D

Nice one Dan but most would have only got 85/1

on the double as nearly all bookmakers only pay greater odds on singles only.

Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

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