NFL Betting Thread 2018

The real mccoy 91 · 15-10-2019 9:58am

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

2 out of 3 on both last week. But this week is the first time this year I love where the lines are at going in early on these ones.

Rams -3 10/11
San fran are a very false 4-0 they have played average teams in bad spots rams will be there toughest test yet and with the extra rest I'm big on the rams

Eagles +3 10/11
Phillys o line and d line are the winning and losing of this game imo they are strong enough up front to slow cook down and put the game in cousins hands and he can't get it done against decent teams. Was gonna go on the ml but I'll take the 3 while it's there.

Falcons -2.5 10/11
Inconsistent as they are Atlanta have faced a brutal schedule so far Arizona by far the worst team they have played and if they are going to make anything of this year they need to be winning here.

Gone big on the rams and a decent sized double on the other 2. Other leans that I haven't pulled the trigger on yet are

Panthers -2
Texans +5
Lions +4.5
Bengals +12

4-0 on the ones I didn't back 0-3 on the ones that I did... i dunno

thomond2006 · 28-10-2019 12:42pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Suddenly that 9/4 bet by McCoy doesn't look that bad! Long way to go but neither team will be happy after Week 1.

Now it looks like a banker.

Guffy · 28-10-2019 1:03pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Now it looks like a banker.

Its not the selection it's the price. Particularly considering the browns schedule from here in

The real mccoy 91 · 28-10-2019 9:57pm

I didn't put money on it anyway fellas thought 9/4 was a bit of a joke price considering both were favs for their divisions i was looking for 3/1+

the other one of the afc east finishing order is going nicely though. 3/1 on 1.pats 2.bills 3.jets 4.fins

Surely the jets can pick up another couple of wins from somewhere

The real mccoy 91 · 30-12-2019 4:43pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Requested a couple of bets the last few days on the #whatoddspaddy section

Browns and bears both not to make the playoffs 9/4

Afc east exact finishing order 1.pats 2.bills 3.Jets 4. Dolphins 3/1

Packers steelers falcons all over 8.5 wins dolphins and Bengals under 5.5 6/1

Gonna put something down on the finishing order as the top and bottom spot are a bit of a formality so 3/1 on the bills over the jets looks good. Will leave the other 2 alone they look a bit skinny price wise

2 out of 3 here made a few Bob on the finishing order was right about the browns and bears but the value had been sucked from it

L.S.F · 03-01-2020 1:41pm

Kept record of all my NFL accas throughout the season. Finished €250 up

Raiders were the only team I didn't pick, Saints (8) and Ravens (3) were my most successful teams at 100% (had a few at 1 or 2 games at 100% too). Falcons (3) Bears & Redskins (1) were my only 0%'ers

Browns were my most back with 10 but 22% at 2 wins, 7 losses and a push.

Was only €2 four or five folds mainly just to keep the interest in other games each week

eagle eye · 03-01-2020 2:27pm

L.S.F wrote: »

Kept record of all my NFL accas throughout the season. Finished €250 up

Raiders were the only team I didn't pick, Saints (8) and Ravens (3) were my most successful teams at 100% (had a few at 1 or 2 games at 100% too). Falcons (3) Bears & Redskins (1) were my only 0%'ers

Browns were my most back with 10 but 22% at 2 wins, 7 losses and a push.

Was only €2 four or five folds mainly just to keep the interest in other games each week

And when you fully review that you'll come to the conclusion, which I tell everybody, that you just stay away from backing bad teams. Guaranteed to lose money if you do that.

thomond2006 · 03-01-2020 6:31pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Looking at some season bets, I took Tampa Bay under 6.5 wins @ 10/11.

vs SF
@ CAR
vs NYG
@ LAR
@ NO
vs CAR (London)
BYE WEEK
@ TEN
@ SEA
vs ARI
vs NO
@ ATL
@ JAX
vs IND
@ DET
vs HOU
@ ATL

It's hard to see them going better than 2-4 before their bye and hopefully they're in tank mode by Week 8 or 9. They've gone 5-11 in the last two seasons, their division remains very tough (with one home game in London) and they have trips to Seattle and the Rams. They'll do well to get to seven wins in my humble view. Their home opener against the 49ers will be big.

Out by a game, bah.

I also got burned in the last game by Miami, having backed them to win under 4.5 games. This looked like a banker mid-season.

eagle eye · 03-01-2020 7:23pm

thomond2006 wrote:

Out by a game, bah.

Yeah but they lost their two best receivers for their last two games and lost both games.

thomond2006 · 03-01-2020 7:45pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah but they lost their two best receivers for their last two games and lost both games.

You're not making feel any better!

I'll give it to Jameis, he made enough crazy plays throughout the season to stockpile wins. The bet was dead for a few weeks.

Miami on the other hand: Brian Flores should be a COTY contender getting them to five wins from a 0-7 start.

Frisbee · 06-01-2020 5:23pm

Frisbee wrote: »

Dolphins under 5.5 @ 4/9
Colts over 6.5 @ 10/13
Bills over 6.5 @ 2/3
Vikings over 9.5 @ 23/20

Roethlisberger under 4475.5 Passing Yards @ 5/6

Winston under 4435.5 Passing Yards @ 10/11

Bama Outright @ 11/5

5-2 from Pre-season. Those Miami & Colts bets made me sweat a lot more than I thought they would around Week 8 or so.

The real mccoy 91 · 12-01-2020 7:53pm

2 punts for the kansas game

Kansas -9.5 under 49.5 11/4
Shady McCoy anytime td 11/4

thomond2006 · 08-05-2020 6:37pm

Rams under 8.5 wins is very tempting. They look weaker than last year and 85m is their cap hit for Donald, Goff, Ramsey and the residual cap for Gurley. They have a tricky enough start as well and that division is going to be tough. My only concern is with their first rounder next year gone they will never consider tanking.

Stephen A Smith · 12-05-2020 7:02pm

Panthers over 5.5 is a bet I love already. Competent QB in Bridgewater who won’t lose them games, nice core of receivers and if Matt Rhule can get any little bit extra from McCaffrey this year on top of what he did last year, I think they could go 8-8.

eagle eye · 12-05-2020 7:08pm

Stephen A Smith wrote:

Panthers over 5.5 is a bet I love already. Competent QB in Bridgewater who wonâ€™t lose them games, nice core of receivers and if Matt Rhule can get any little bit extra from McCaffrey this year on top of what he did last year, I think they could go 8-8.

Saints twice, Bucs twice is not easy. I think you are looking at the Falcons games as two wins for them to get to 8-8. Away at the Bears and Broncos, home to the Chiefs and Lions.
I can't see it TBH.
5.5 seems about right to me.

adrian522 · 12-05-2020 7:15pm

Win totals for 2020, anything jumping out at you?

Baltimore Ravens 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
New Orleans Saints 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Dallas Cowboys 9.5
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5
Seattle Seahawks 9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.5
Green Bay Packers 9
Minnesota Vikings 9
Buffalo Bills 9
New England Patriots 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 9
Chicago Bears 8.5
Cleveland Browns 8.5
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Los Angeles Rams 8.5
Tennessee Titans 8.5
Houston Texans 8
Atlanta Falcons 7.5
Denver Broncos 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5
Arizona Cardinals 7.0
Detroit Lions 6.5
New York Giants 6.5
New York Jets 6.5
Miami Dolphins 6
Carolina Panthers 5.5
Washington Redskins 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals 5
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5

I like the Colts to go over 8.5, Maybe Vikings under 9

Stephen A Smith · 12-05-2020 7:16pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Saints twice, Bucs twice is not easy. I think you are looking at the Falcons games as two wins for them to get to 8-8. Away at the Bears and Broncos, home to the Chiefs and Lions.
I can't see it TBH.
5.5 seems about right to me.

Was looking at their schedule before I posted.

I have them winning at home v Raiders, Cards, Lions and Bears. Rest of the home games I can see them going 1-3 maybe 2-2 with a bit of luck.

A lock away against the Redskins and you’ll find it hard getting another after that, possible away to the Chargers.

I’d be confident personally taking the over at this moment. Course still a long way away for me to change my mind on that.

Stephen A Smith · 12-05-2020 7:21pm

adrian522 wrote: »

Win totals for 2020, anything jumping out at you?

Baltimore Ravens 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
New Orleans Saints 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Dallas Cowboys 9.5
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5
Seattle Seahawks 9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.5
Green Bay Packers 9
Minnesota Vikings 9
Buffalo Bills 9
New England Patriots 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 9
Chicago Bears 8.5
Cleveland Browns 8.5
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Los Angeles Rams 8.5
Tennessee Titans 8.5
Houston Texans 8
Atlanta Falcons 7.5
Denver Broncos 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5
Arizona Cardinals 7.0
Detroit Lions 6.5
New York Giants 6.5
New York Jets 6.5
Miami Dolphins 6
Carolina Panthers 5.5
Washington Redskins 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals 5
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5

I like the Colts to go over 8.5, Maybe Vikings under 9

I would take the Steelers and Patriots under today. Patriots is a tricky one because if they were to sign a Cam Newton etc then it would make me change my mind.

eagle eye · 12-05-2020 8:48pm

Stephen A Smith wrote:

I would take the Steelers and Patriots under today. Patriots is a tricky one because if they were to sign a Cam Newton etc then it would make me change my mind.

Last time the Patriots were worse than ten wins was 2002.
Over 9:5 for them is by far the best bet statistically.
Don't forget that one of those seasons was without Tom Brady where they went 11-5.

The real mccoy 91 · 12-05-2020 11:55pm

adrian522 wrote: »

Win totals for 2020, anything jumping out at you?

Baltimore Ravens 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
New Orleans Saints 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Dallas Cowboys 9.5
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5
Seattle Seahawks 9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.5
Green Bay Packers 9
Minnesota Vikings 9
Buffalo Bills 9
New England Patriots 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 9
Chicago Bears 8.5
Cleveland Browns 8.5
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Los Angeles Rams 8.5
Tennessee Titans 8.5
Houston Texans 8
Atlanta Falcons 7.5
Denver Broncos 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5
Arizona Cardinals 7.0
Detroit Lions 6.5
New York Giants 6.5
New York Jets 6.5
Miami Dolphins 6
Carolina Panthers 5.5
Washington Redskins 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals 5
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5

I like the Colts to go over 8.5, Maybe Vikings under 9

Straight off the bat without properly studying I like the 9ers under Bills under and Dallas over. Will have a more in depth look through the week

13-05-2020 12:10am

Colts stood out on first viewing and, having just checked their schedule, I think over 8.5 is very hospitable.

The_Honeybadger · 13-05-2020 12:40am

Stephen A Smith wrote: »

I would take the Steelers and Patriots under today. Patriots is a tricky one because if they were to sign a Cam Newton etc then it would make me change my mind.

Don’t see that myself. Pats will undoubtably have some ups and downs with a new QB but their defence should still be excellent, they will figure it out. Steelers got to 8 last year with a complete injury meltdown on offence and some of the most comical QB play you’ll ever see, if Ben can still play at all they’ll be fine.

Only thing that jumps out at me is that I would take the under on Detroit at 6.5 I don’t see how they have gotten significantly better from last years 3-12-1 and Staffords injury issues are always going to be a concern along with a tough Division

Might take the over on the Eagles who might finally get a break from all the injuries they’ve had since that SB win, and the under on Dallas who have a lot of questions with the Dak situation, new coach etc

eagle eye · 13-05-2020 12:50am

The_Honeybadger wrote:

and the under on Dallas who have a lot of questions with the Dak situation, new coach etc

How have they questions when they've signed Dalton as backup?
They appear to have improved in the off-season and will have a bunch of defenders who missed most of last season back.

The_Honeybadger · 13-05-2020 1:22am

eagle eye wrote: »

How have they questions when they've signed Dalton as backup?
They appear to have improved in the off-season and will have a bunch of defenders who missed most of last season back.

Dalton is an insurance policy and probably won’t play very much if at all. Byron Jones was the best player in their secondary and he is gone, their All Pro center also retired. Every team thinks they have improved and won the off season and draft but we won’t know until they start playing.

I think a franchise QB being embroiled in a long running contract saga and a new coach are both variables, or question marks if you will. JMO

The real mccoy 91 · 21-05-2020 10:36pm

Jumping back in to the win totals I think my favourite one that i have picked out as they look undervalued is arizona with the line at 7.0

@49ers
Redskins
Lions
@Panthers
@jets
@cowboys
Bye
Dolphins
Bills

It's not a massive stretch to see them going 6-2 here imo at least 5-3 anyway with the addition of hopkins and the natural progression we should see from murray. There is potential for a bit of a superbowl hangover in san fran and the rams look to be coming apart at the seems, the Seahawks well wilson is gonna carry them to the playoffs against is he? 8/1 on arizona for the division definitely looks a couple of points too big for me.. back to the original point 7 wins looks easily within range even in a tough division

The real mccoy 91 · 21-05-2020 10:43pm

I also dont understand why the line on mayfields passing tds is so low. Last year he was seen as one of the biggest busts and rightly so but he still threw 22tds this year with better coaching an improved o line and a receiver core of hunt Hooper njoku Beckham and landry I was expecting a line of 27ish but they have set the line at 23.5

Guffy · 21-05-2020 11:47pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

I also dont understand why the line on mayfields passing tds is so low. Last year he was seen as one of the biggest busts and rightly so but he still threw 22tds this year with better coaching an improved o line and a receiver core of hunt Hooper njoku Beckham and landry I was expecting a line of 27ish but they have set the line at 23.5

I would imagine they are factoring in a heavier run game. In saying that Cousins had 26 last year.

Problem with Baker is that he got spooked early last year. I hope to **** he can come back from that and fixes his **** in the off season

eagle eye · 22-05-2020 12:00am

The real mccoy 91 wrote:

Jumping back in to the win totals I think my favourite one that i have picked out as they look undervalued is arizona with the line at 7.0

The real mccoy 91 wrote:

@49ers Redskins Lions @Panthers @jets @cowboys Bye Dolphins Bills

I see them losing to the 49ers, Panthers, Jets, Cowboys and Bills out of this games. They might lose to the Dolphins as well if Tua hits the ground running.

The real mccoy 91 · 22-05-2020 9:42am

Guffy wrote: »

I would imagine they are factoring in a heavier run game. In saying that Cousins had 26 last year.

Problem with Baker is that he got spooked early last year. I hope to **** he can come back from that and fixes his **** in the off season

23.5 still seems on the low side with the receiving talent that's there. There just seemed to be a massive disconnect throughout the organisation last year but with a new coaching team there should be more stability. Picking up wills and conklin should give him more time too
24 is definitely in range imo

eagle eye wrote: »

I see them losing to the 49ers, Panthers, Jets, Cowboys and Bills out of this games. They might lose to the Dolphins as well if Tua hits the ground running.

Our perceptions on arizona are very different then for me 5 wins last year with a tougher schedule and rookie qb add in hopkins and natural improvement see them definitely take a step forward. The 9ers and cowboys are tricky games especially with Dallas the end leg of a 3 road game spin but I have them competitive against Carolina the jets bills and dolphins

chancer007 · 17-06-2020 10:33am

"New Orleans Saints 10.5" win total
any opinions how Brees will get on this season considering his recent comments?
I think any chance the opposition get they will try & nail him..

NFL Betting Thread 2018

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