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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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I have made done my summer analogue forecast in April based on Solar,Enso and QBO and got two years that kinda matched - 1996 and 2006, both had higher than average pressure anomalies nearly exactly where our high pressure sits during this warm spell, I have posted that here earlier if you remember. I wonder if that is just pure luck or there is something more to it.
jsryanbruen wrote: »The GFS is known for wanting us to go back into a normal pattern. During the previous warm spell, it was unusually consistent with showing no breakdown in a pattern for a long while. I started giving the GFS more credit than I normally did but as soon as the return of the westerlies started to appear, I figured that the GFS was back in its normal state of chopping and changing a lot. Remember the Friday 15th June deluge it was showing? I bet many of you wish that came true by now.
I remember for a few days that the GFS was also showing us going into a westerly phase by next Saturday, now that looks to have been delayed. The UKMO shows us in a very humid and thundery easterly scenario for next weekend which would make westerlies not likely to return for a while as shown from the previous warm spell which had a few thundery interludes around each of the weekends of the period.
CFSv2 has now significantly re-strengthened the above average heights for July with a large anticyclone just centred to the north of the country drawing in warm easterly winds. It's very similar in ways to July 1955 how this pattern is setup on the model. If you did not know, July 1955 was Ireland's sunniest month on record. Bar weakening the heights for a time to average for July 2018, the CFSv2 has remained consistent on an anticyclonic July (as shown by its precipitation anomalies) throughout.
I had two ways July 2018 could go in my Summer forecast:
1. Deteriorate into a very cool and relatively wet month.
2. Continue the Summer on from a warm and dry June with a huge anticyclonic again over us.
Looks like the latter is continuing to be favoured.
My word of advice would be to focus on the weather up to Friday or Saturday for now because you'll find just too many chopping and changes afterwards.
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Looks to me as if the aforementioned thundery spell may not happen at all now? That low pressure seems to be forecast to fill almost entirely by the time it actually gets to us.
GFS does show a rain band from some high pressure to our northeast for next Wednesday, but I'm unsure as to whether this would involve thunder or not - the rain is coming from an Atlantic system, but the high pressure is persisting over Ireland in this setup - we're essentially sitting on the boundary of the jet stream:
I know ye were saying to stick with the ECM, but unfortunately it doesn't have precicptation charts, at least not on Meteociel. The ECM's nearest forecast window for this period is 168-192 hours, so here's a GIF which flips between the two:
What kind of setup would we get from this, with regard to rain, temperature and/or the possibility of thunderstorms? I was getting kinda excited at the prospect of some decent thunder for the weekend so holding on to the idea that it's not quite dead yet
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Looking promising. Been holding that pattern the last few runs. At the moment looks like the E astern side of the country getting the warmest temps, up into the high 20's. In general a warm week coming and increasing in temperatures towards the weekend. Will be watched closely no doubt
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GFS 12z on board again. Very July 2013-esque.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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sryanbruen wrote: »GFS 12z on board again. Very July 2013-esque.
Livers around Ireland shudderðŸºðŸº0 -
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12z runs continue the saga.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »GFS going all out Spanish plume by day 10
:-o
If their was ever a time for a "Jaysus Ted" Meme, this would be it. :eek:
Anyone?0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »GFS going all out Spanish plume by day 10
:-o
Imagine those pinks over Ireland!0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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