View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 287 43.09%
No impact 145 21.77%
Global warming is here to stay 128 19.22%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 106 15.92%
Voters: 666. You may not vote on this poll

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19-06-2010, 19:48   #211
dolanbaker
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I would say that it is important to retain the original method, just to allow comparison with historical records.

But there is nothing in using additional counting methods to log based on current technology.
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21-06-2010, 08:50   #212
 
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why would NASA want to beef up numbers or exaggerate the size of the sunspot?
http://spaceweather.com/images2010/2...00da1pmir3rao7

Interesting graph here too on mean global temps

Last edited by WolfeIRE; 21-06-2010 at 11:06.
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21-06-2010, 19:04   #213
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Nasa aren't picking the number anyway.

Here's the formula for the sunspot number:

The official SESC sunspot number is computed according to the Wolf Sunspot Number formula R = k(10g + s), where g is the number of sunspot groups (regions), s is the total number of individual spots in all the groups and k is a scaling factor that corrects for seeing conditions.

'k' is chosen for a particular observatory such that the calculation agrees with other observatories and is somewhat standardised.

I think Joe B_astardi isn't right in his point of view - the NOAA numbers are internally consistent and also can be correlated with historical observations and other observatories without too much difficulty.

Last edited by Popoutman; 21-06-2010 at 19:11. Reason: chances are Joe does know what the sunspot number is - my bad..
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24-06-2010, 21:08   #214
 
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Evidence for solar forcing in variability of temperatures and pressures in Europe


FULL interesting PAPER
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/sun_climate_connection.pdf



(Quote)
The solar signature is best reflected in the wintertime temperature disturbances


(Quote)
The role of the Sun in global and regional climate change should be re-assessed and reasonable physical mechanisms are in sight.
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08-07-2010, 20:00   #215
 
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And now an update on Sunspots,




A region which is most likely returning sunspot 1082 is hiding on the eastern limb and will soon rotate into view within the next 24-48 hours. This region was the cause of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on Monday. The X-Ray flux has picked up and indicates a chance for C-Class flares. You can see the bright region in the latest SDO image below.









Attached Images
File Type: jpg Total Solar Eclipse.JPG (57.6 KB, 476 views)
File Type: jpg Time Frame.JPG (6.0 KB, 476 views)
File Type: jpg Returning Sunspot.JPG (68.2 KB, 476 views)
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09-07-2010, 08:20   #216
 
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Something to think about from Joe. Interesting stuff.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/110...annel=vbbastaj
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09-07-2010, 09:23   #217
 
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I am still somewhat confused about what this means for the UK and Ireland. According to his predictive chart, we will experience above normal temps this winter? Excuse my ignorance...
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09-07-2010, 10:24   #218
 
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Originally Posted by WolfeIRE View Post
I am still somewhat confused about what this means for the UK and Ireland. According to his predictive chart, we will experience above normal temps this winter? Excuse my ignorance...

That chart won't play out exactly as shown as you know.

It takes the 3 month period as a whole so lets say jan is colder than normal but the other two months are somewhat above,then you would get slighty above average temps forecast,if that makes sense to you.

Overall global temps should be down so heres hoping that some cold blasts can rear its head far enough west to reach us from time to time.
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17-07-2010, 10:14   #219
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http://science.nasa.gov/science-news..._thermosphere/

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A Puzzling Collapse of Earth's Upper Atmosphere

July 15, 2010: NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event in our planet's atmosphere. High above Earth's surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called "the thermosphere" recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.


Layers of Earth's upper atmosphere. Credit: John Emmert/NRL. [larger image] "This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years," says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). "It's a Space Age record."

The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009—a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.

"Something is going on that we do not understand," says Emmert.
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28-07-2010, 13:49   #220
 
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http://www.spaceweather.com/

large sunspot identified
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28-07-2010, 14:28   #221
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Well I suppose it couldn't have stayed quiet forever, well that's (probably) the theory of another Maundar minimum out the window.
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28-07-2010, 20:30   #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dolanbaker View Post
Well I suppose it couldn't have stayed quiet forever, well that's (probably) the theory of another Maundar minimum out the window.
Its still pretty quiet though. Compare the difference between these 2 images. In fairness these images are not like for like, as the 2001 pic was taken at more or less the peak of solar cycle 23. It will probably be around April 2013 that we see the peak of cycle 24.

28th July 2010


29th March 2001
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28-07-2010, 20:36   #223
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Yes, I agree, Much quieter, but a Dalton minimum type event is still on the cards?
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28-07-2010, 21:59   #224
 
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Yes, I agree, Much quieter, but a Dalton minimum type event is still on the cards?

Yes leaning toward something similar to a Dalton.

It more likely will surpass that too but im expecting sunspots at there peak to reach the 90 mark per day.

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28-07-2010, 23:22   #225
 
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TV3 now talking about the sun and climate. TONIGHT WITH VINCENT BROWNE,kevin myers presenting with ger fleming on panel
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