Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Mic 1972 · 22-09-2020 6:26pm

Pelezico wrote: »

The fall in prices started last year. Activity has collapsed too.

It is great to have you on board to dissuade us from any hint that prices have indeed fallen and will continue to fall.

prices were dropping last, they have since fully recovered and are trending up
source below:

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

Cyrus · 22-09-2020 6:26pm

PropQueries wrote: »

good story. But fixtures and fittings don't cost anything really. They buy them wholesale. They put a €200 flat screen tv etc. in the sitting room and people pay an extra €10k for the house. It amazes me sometimes.

It's like those solar panels on the new a-rated homes. They probably add €20k to the price of the house but only cost the developer a couple of hundred euro to buy and install.

You are downplaying the difference in windows , doors, flooring, bathroom tiles and fittings , kitchens etc etc in various new builds . The differences can run into 10s of thousands

Mic 1972 · 22-09-2020 6:27pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Supply is really being drained away from the market for some reason

People have cash, every viewing i do now there are always cash buyer bidding.

PropQueries · 22-09-2020 6:34pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You are downplaying the difference in windows , doors, flooring, bathroom tiles and fittings , kitchens etc etc in various new builds . The differences can run into 10s of thousands

Only if you had to do it yourself. The developers have the tradesmen working for them. The difference in cost of building a home including fixtures and fittings in Ballymun or some 'good area' in South Dublin is negligible.

For example, the primary reason for the difference in price between cooking ranges is the brand name. Similar to why some areas are more expensive than others i.e. it's the brand name of the area. Developers only build to what's required by regulations, good area or so-called bad area. I'm talking about three-bed semis here.

And, many of those fancy apartments in so-called 'good areas' still have fire safety issues.

"Sandyford scheme built by Shannon Homes found to have fire-safety issues"

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/developer-wants-indemnity-in-exchange-for-1m-to-fix-faults-residents-told-1.4289651

Hubertj · 22-09-2020 6:44pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Only if you had to do it yourself. The developers have the tradesmen working for them. The difference in cost of building a home including fixtures and fittings in Ballymun or some 'good area' in South Dublin is negligible.

For example, the primary reason for the difference in price between cooking ranges is the brand name. Similar to why some areas are more expensive than others i.e. it's the brand name of the area. Developers only build to what's required by regulations, good area or so-called bad area. I'm talking about three-bed semis here.

And, many of those fancy apartments in so-called 'good areas' still have fire safety issues.

"Sandyford scheme built by Shannon Homes found to have fire-safety issues"

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/developer-wants-indemnity-in-exchange-for-1m-to-fix-faults-residents-told-1.4289651

you can't be that stupid so are clearly trying to wind people up. Are you telling me the difference between a €2k kitchen and €20k kitchen is negligible?

PropQueries · 22-09-2020 6:52pm

Hubertj wrote: »

you can't be that stupid so are clearly trying to wind people up. Are you telling me the difference between a €2k kitchen and €20k kitchen is negligible?

Cost of materials wise. very negligible. Yes.

Hubertj · 22-09-2020 6:56pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Cost of materials wise. very negligible. Yes.

Very negligible difference in cost between laminate and marble worktop? Can’t believe I’m fallin for this

PropQueries · 22-09-2020 7:06pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Very negligible difference in cost between laminate and marble worktop? Can’t believe I’m fallin for this

We were talking about the difference in finishing in the standard three-bed semis between a good area and a bad area.

Of course there's a big difference once you get into bespoke kitchens, materials etc. But e.g. a €1k cooking range will not be much different to a €5k brand name cooking range. It will do the job very well. Tiles are tiles etc. I'm talking about cost of materials.

But I would say that a good tradesman is worth three times an average tradesman and that's where I would be willing to spend my money.

But I get where you're coming from

Pelezico · 22-09-2020 7:34pm

Hubertj wrote: »

you can't be that stupid so are clearly trying to wind people up. Are you telling me the difference between a €2k kitchen and €20k kitchen is negligible?

Why tell people they are stupid?

PropQueries · 22-09-2020 7:44pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Why tell people they are stupid?

Ahh.. he had a bit of a point

Pelezico · 22-09-2020 8:11pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Ahh.. he had a bit of a point

For a volume builder, materials specification represent a relatively small part of build.

Bass Reeves · 22-09-2020 9:00pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You are downplaying the difference in windows , doors, flooring, bathroom tiles and fittings , kitchens etc etc in various new builds . The differences can run into 10s of thousands

Lads have this idea that everything is only a few quid. Spec on new ''A'' rated houses has driven new build costs up. Usually the materials themselves are the cheap part it the fitting and certification that is the expensive part now. Engineering certification on a new house is about 15K at present. One off builds are nearly easier to certify now.

At present Labour costs are more expensive than materials and you have vat on top of everything. Recently had a bit of tiling in a rental could not get the last tiler I used. Labour worked out at 35% more than materials cost. Got a quote for a painter last January for a few rooms and it was 1300 euro painted it myself in the end. I was at it and a fella passing the house asked me to quote for a paint job on a flat near by. I did not realize I was that good a painter.Did not quote though.

hometruths · 22-09-2020 9:55pm

IT article on tax headwinds - ‘Tax war’ will hit Ireland if digital tax talks fail, OECD says

Key points:

OECD are trying to broker a multilateral agreement on digital tax between 137 countries.

EU say they will press ahead with an EU wide digital tax if OECD fail to get multilateral agreement.

Failure to get agreement likely to trigger a 'tax war'.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, who has said he wants an accord at OECD level, has warned the State could lose up to €2 billion of corporate tax revenue under proposals to reform the global tax system, equating to about 20 per cent of last year’s corporate tax take.

Important to note this is best case scenario - if there is global agreement.

Pascal Saint-Amans, director of the OECD’s tax policy centre, added:

What happens if there is no multinational solution? The ones which pay the higher price will be the small countries. The trade war or tax war will make Ireland suffer relatively more than all the others.

So, if all goes well we could lose 20% of corporate tax. No estimates given what we might lose if it goes badly.

hometruths · 22-09-2020 10:39pm

Was mulling over Paschal's €2bn figure, and thought I'd have a look at what the tech sector pays in corporation tax - i.e how much would we have left?

Surprisingly, collectively tech paid €1.1bn in 2019 and €2bn in 2018

I was surprised because a) I thought it would have been higher in any event and b) given Paschal's comment is he suggesting that there is a possibility the entire tech sectors flees Ireland en masse?

Why is he saying we could lose up to €2bn in corporation tax if that represents the entirety of the tech contribution? It is unlike him to be alarmist.

Is there something I am missing here?

Also surprisingly Apple's tax contribution was €1.8bn in 2018. Presumably they must be classified under a different sector, maybe manufacturing?

Relevance to property:

Our Minister for Finance seems to have indicated there is a possibility that tech companies will be as common as snakes in Ireland. Aside from the hit to corporation tax, if they leave, their jobs will go with them.

If this transpired, this is bearish for property (in my opinion).

Smouse156 · 22-09-2020 10:50pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

prices were dropping last, they have since fully recovered and are trending up
source below:

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

This seems to be at odds with CSO data:
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/first-fall-in-property-prices-since-may-2013-as-market-absorbed-impact-of-the-pandemic-39535762.html

I suppose Bl.ocks is using median prices rather than mean (average) prices which is misleading.

Basically there is a slight fall since the peak in late 2018. Second hand has obviously fallen further given all the new builds keeping the average price high.

Hubertj · 22-09-2020 10:54pm

schmittel wrote: »

Was mulling over Paschal's €2bn figure, and thought I'd have a look at what the tech sector pays in corporation tax - i.e how much would we have left?

Surprisingly, collectively tech paid €1.1bn in 2019 and €2bn in 2018

I was surprised because a) I thought it would have been higher in any event and b) given Paschal's comment is he suggesting that there is a possibility the entire tech sectors flees Ireland en masse?

Why is he saying we could lose up to €2bn in corporation tax if that represents the entirety of the tech contribution? It is unlike him to be alarmist.

Is there something I am missing here?

Also surprisingly Apple's tax contribution was €1.8bn in 2018. Presumably they must be classified under a different sector, maybe manufacturing?

Relevance to property:

Our Minister for Finance seems to have indicated there is a possibility that tech companies will be as common as snakes in Ireland. Aside from the hit to corporation tax, if they leave, their jobs will go with them.

If this transpired, this is bearish for property (in my opinion).

You’re reading it incorrectly. Pillar 1 relates to digital- tech etc. Pillar 2 is the challenge - overall corporate tax reforms so pharma etc would be in scope. I’ve had the misfortune of listening to a US tax lawyer in work bang on about this for about 18 months.

hometruths · 22-09-2020 11:06pm

Hubertj wrote: »

You’re reading it incorrectly. Pillar 1 relates to digital- tech etc. Pillar 2 is the challenge - overall corporate tax reforms so pharma etc would be in scope. I’ve had the misfortune of listening to a US tax lawyer in work bang on about this for about 18 months.

Ok that makes more sense if pharma is included. In that case the article is quite misleading I think.

beauf · 22-09-2020 11:40pm

PropQueries wrote: »

...The difference in cost of building a home including fixtures and fittings in Ballymun or some 'good area' in South Dublin is negligible....

If someone were to build the exact same home. But no sane person would do that in the first place.
One location won't command enough money to pay for the extra expense.
The opposite is true in the more expensive location.
It will command a higher price to cover the extra expense and increase the profit.

It might make no difference to some. But it makes all the difference to others.

PropQueries · 23-09-2020 8:59am

From RTE: 35 properties to be leased in Galway city centre to house asylum seekers.

"The Department of Justice has announced plans to lease 35 properties in Galway city centre to house asylum seekers.

The apartments and town houses are located on Dominick Street and on Munster Avenue.

The properties in question have been used for student accommodation and short-term tourist rental purposes in the past."

"The department has agreed to lease the units for an initial duration of two years."

Does anyone know if these apartments were actually dedicated student accommodation units or just regular apartments that happened to be rented to students? If they were dedicated student accommodation units, this may give an insight on the future plans for all those empty new built student units in Dublin.

Link to RTE article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/connacht/2020/0923/1166889-asylum-seekers-housing-galway/

The_Conductor · 23-09-2020 9:32am

PropQueries wrote: »

Does anyone know if these apartments were actually dedicated student accommodation units or just regular apartments that happened to be rented to students? If they were dedicated student accommodation units, this may give an insight on the future plans for all those empty new built student units in Dublin.

I know the Dominick Street units- I was asked to inspect them previously.
They're apartments- over a weird split level, they're quite basic open plan accommodation- and the fixtures and fittings would be typical of units that are roughly 15 years old. They do have nice outdoor balconies- with a nice sea view.

They are very much *not* luxury apartments- they're perfectly functional- in an open plan living sort of thing- but they are dated, taps need new washers, electric heating might make for interesting electricity bills, wooden flooring that screams of a management company that is daring tenants to scratch it, furniture that Ikea would be embarrassed over, small 7kg washing machine machines in the kitchen (which is open plan to the living room etc), cupboards on their last legs, no built-in wardrobes, en-suite bathrooms have missing covers on the taps, power showers that need replacing etc.

The units are servicable- but will need ongoing management- DOJ probably offered them some sort of a sweetheart deal to take them- and if management is not part of the equation, DOJ are in for one hell of a rude surprise at the ongoing maintenance these need.

PropQueries · 23-09-2020 9:50am

House completions to hit 18,000 despite construction shutdown

“The number of new homes constructed in the Republic this year is expected to be about 18,000 – 3,000 units less than last year, according to the banking industry lobby group Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).”

Looks like the residential construction sector got back on its feet a lot quicker than many anticipated.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-completions-to-hit-18-000-despite-construction-shutdown-1.4356648

Assetbacked · 23-09-2020 10:06am

schmittel wrote: »

Was mulling over Paschal's €2bn figure, and thought I'd have a look at what the tech sector pays in corporation tax - i.e how much would we have left?

Surprisingly, collectively tech paid €1.1bn in 2019 and €2bn in 2018

I was surprised because a) I thought it would have been higher in any event and b) given Paschal's comment is he suggesting that there is a possibility the entire tech sectors flees Ireland en masse?

Why is he saying we could lose up to €2bn in corporation tax if that represents the entirety of the tech contribution? It is unlike him to be alarmist.

Is there something I am missing here?

Also surprisingly Apple's tax contribution was €1.8bn in 2018. Presumably they must be classified under a different sector, maybe manufacturing?

Relevance to property:

Our Minister for Finance seems to have indicated there is a possibility that tech companies will be as common as snakes in Ireland. Aside from the hit to corporation tax, if they leave, their jobs will go with them.

If this transpired, this is bearish for property (in my opinion).

Of course it is bearish for property but that is a good thing. On the OECD tax alignment strategy, looking at the bigger picture, considering it is part of a multi-jurisdictional tax alignment effort, it is better for the overall good of societies. While I would not like Ireland going off on a one-man effort to cut off the revenue from destructive tax practices, doing it with the rest of the world is okay. Allowing it to persist leads to populism and the breakdown of social cohesion and the erosion of democracy and the middle classes. The ESRI has been warning for years not to become dependent on our corporation tax revenue so rather than fighting it, we should be viewing it as a windfall.

MacronvFrugals · 23-09-2020 10:15am

The lines between MyHome.ie and the Irish Times have become so blurred, does the paper of record in each country always shill for the sector? -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/south-dublin-land-at-19m-has-scope-for-up-to-500-homes-1.4361458

PropQueries · 23-09-2020 10:29am

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The lines between MyHome.ie and the Irish Times have become so blurred, does the paper of record in each country always shill for the sector? -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/south-dublin-land-at-19m-has-scope-for-up-to-500-homes-1.4361458

I have been wondering recently why the commercial property section of the Irish Times doesn't have an 'advertorial' label above many of these type of "articles". Most of the "articles" or "opinion pieces" don't appear to be independent analysis.

They are interesting and do give a good insight into the commercial property market, but does anyone know if they are paid for these "articles"?

Assetbacked · 23-09-2020 11:13am

PropQueries wrote: »

I have been wondering recently why the commercial property section of the Irish Times doesn't have an 'advertorial' label above many of these type of "articles". Most of the "articles" or "opinion pieces" don't appear to be independent analysis.

They are interesting and do give a good insight into the commercial property market, but does anyone know if they are paid for these "articles"?

The author is the property editor himself and if you look at his record, presumably his aim is to drum up business for the sector if the articles themselves are not specifically paid-for;

https://www.irishtimes.com/profile/ronald-quinlan-7.4729914

23-09-2020 11:15am

schmittel wrote: »

...............

Our Minister for Finance seems to have indicated there is a possibility that tech companies will be as common as snakes in Ireland. Aside from the hit to corporation tax, if they leave, their jobs will go with them.

If this transpired, this is bearish for property (in my opinion).

As long as American HQd companies need a presence in the EU we aren't in too bad a position IMO. Irish employees largely buy into the workhard, rat race culture that the French or Germans wouldn't accept.
Being native English speaking is also a huge factor. The tech stuff will only be getting bigger I reckon.

PropQueries · 23-09-2020 11:31am

The_Conductor wrote: »

I know the Dominick Street units- I was asked to inspect them previously.
They're apartments- over a weird split level, they're quite basic open plan accommodation- and the fixtures and fittings would be typical of units that are roughly 15 years old. They do have nice outdoor balconies- with a nice sea view.

They are very much *not* luxury apartments- they're perfectly functional- in an open plan living sort of thing- but they are dated, taps need new washers, electric heating might make for interesting electricity bills, wooden flooring that screams of a management company that is daring tenants to scratch it, furniture that Ikea would be embarrassed over, small 7kg washing machine machines in the kitchen (which is open plan to the living room etc), cupboards on their last legs, no built-in wardrobes, en-suite bathrooms have missing covers on the taps, power showers that need replacing etc.

The units are servicable- but will need ongoing management- DOJ probably offered them some sort of a sweetheart deal to take them- and if management is not part of the equation, DOJ are in for one hell of a rude surprise at the ongoing maintenance these need.

Thanks. Given that it's only for 2 years, it does come across as a bit of the start of a back-door bailout for the student accommodation/ AirBnB sector.

JimmyVik · 23-09-2020 11:36am

Augeo wrote: »

As long as American HQd companies need a presence in the EU we aren't in too bad a position IMO. Irish employees largely buy into the workhard, rat race culture that the French or Germans wouldn't accept.
Being native English speaking is also a huge factor. The tech stuff will only be getting bigger I reckon.

Thats one of the biggest reasons American companies love the Irish.

23-09-2020 11:39am

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats one of the biggest reasons American companies love the Irish.

Most definitely. They get very decent ROI out of Ireland aside from corporation tax rates ......... which in comparison to other places aren't wildly low all considered.

Try and set up in France with all of their union bullsh1t :pac:

Cyrus · 23-09-2020 11:41am

Augeo wrote: »

As long as American HQd companies need a presence in the EU we aren't in too bad a position IMO. Irish employees largely buy into the workhard, rat race culture that the French or Germans wouldn't accept.
Being native English speaking is also a huge factor. The tech stuff will only be getting bigger I reckon.

100% this, we are much more aligned with the americans than the europeans in terms of our work culture, for better or worse.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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