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December 2014 Boards forecast contest

  • 28-11-2014 11:14pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (deg C) for the five stations used. The most recent (1981-2010) 30-year average is 5.4 C ... before that (1971-2000), 5.7 and before that (1961-90), 5.3.

    2. Predict the maximum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

    3. Predict the minimum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

    4. Predict the precip (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of snow etc) as a percentage of normal values, for eleven stations around Ireland as per the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

    5. Predict the sunshine hours as percentage of normal for the stations used in the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

    6. Bonus, as usual for December, predict the min and max temperature during the 24-hour calendar day for 25 December at Dublin Airport. A second bonus question (for three possible double-bonus points) asks you to name a location where it may snow on the 25th (in the ROI). If you don't expect any snow on the date just leave this blank or insert "none" or similar. If you do expect snow, take a punt on where, but points will be awarded on the basis of yes or no snow, if nobody has a correct location. If some do, then they will get 3 pts and all incorrect guesses other than "no snow" will get 2/3.

    Sorry this thread was posted rather late, as I have been waiting for an updated entry form. That is still not worked out, you can do one of the following things: go to page one of November's contest thread and enter there, you'll find that I have made an entry today designed to give you the right column headings (and my own forecasts) after the last (DOCARCH) November forecast. Anything that appears there will be transferred over to any new form that we manage to get up and running, and I will edit that link into this announcement. Or, note that any entries made in this thread will also be accepted.

    This link should take you through to an edited version of the November entry form, and your submitted forecasts should then show up at the end of the November forecasts in the Nov 2014 table. When I get a better link to the right form, I will edit this. But this will give you what you need to enter in the meantime. (note, you may not see your forecast in the table, but I can see them in a log of entries, we will get this sorted out and you'll see all the forecasts together by tomorrow, I hope)

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

    Deadline for entries is the usual 0300h 2nd (Tuesday) with 5 pt incremental penalties per half-day late thereafter. Good luck and let me know in this thread if you have any suggestions for 2015, hoping you all enjoy the contest but always open to improvements.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think the forms issues were solved overnight by my assistant (somebody has evidently been in the workshop anyway), but you may not instantly see your forecast listed. We can see them and eventually each entry will go into the right form. I can see Bsal's entry and there are no indications of any other entries except for tests by administrators. So don't panic if you enter and can't see your entry, we'll let you know if we need it resubmitted, no penalty.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 810 ✭✭✭omicron


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 549 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Done


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,107 ✭✭✭John mac


    done.. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Done


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    done


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭rameire


    Done

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    done


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Done

    Best of luck everyone :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Done.
    (Which is more that can be said for Christmas shopping)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    done


  • Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭okla


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Done sorry for being late.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of entries December 2014

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Dublin 25 _ snow

    rameire _________________ 6.3 _ 13.2 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 090 _ 7.9 __ 1.0 _ none
    Johnmac ________________ 5.9 _ 15.1 _ -4.1 _ 120 _ 110 _ 7.5 _ -1.5 _ none
    Joe Public _______________ 5.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.9 _ 099 _ 120 _ 4.9 _ -2.9 _ none
    Jpmarn _____ (-5) ________5.9 _ 12.1 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 120 _ 4.3 _ -2.1 _ none
    pauldry _________________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.5 _ 089 _ 125 _ 4.0 _ -5.0 _ Knock
    Okla ___________________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _ -5.3 _ 110 _ 090 _ 5.6 _ -2.3 _ Malin Hd
    kindredspirit _____________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 _ 9.0 __ 0.0 _ none
    waterways _______________5.6 _ 13.9 _ -5.0 _ 092 _ 104 _ 6.8 __ 2.2 _ Helsinki
    dasa29 _________________ 5.6 _ 12.0 _ -8.0 _ 110 _ 110 _11.0 _ -3.0 _ Knock
    DOCARCH _______________ 5.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 101 _ 6.8 _ -1.2 _ none
    Rikand __________________5.5 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 110 _ 8.0 _ -1.0 _ none
    Bsal ____________________5.5 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 095 _ 9.9 __ 2.0 _ none

    Con Sensus ______________ 5.5 _ 13.9 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 109 _ 6.8 _ -1.6 _ none

    Dacogawa _______________ 5.4 _ 14.1 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 115 _ 6.2 _ -2.3 _ none
    200motels _______________5.4 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 069 _ 120 _10.5 __ 3.0 _ none
    lostinashford _____________5.2 _ 12.0 _ -4.7 _ 090 _ 107 _ 8.9 _ -2.3 _ none
    sunflower3 ______________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 078 _ 108 _10.1 __ 1.2 _ none
    mickger844posts _________ 4.9 _ 12.7 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 _10.0 __ 2.0 _ none
    Tae laidir ________________4.9 _ 11.7 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 105 _ 6.5 _ 0.5 _ Ballyhaise
    Harps ___________________4.7 _ 13.1 _ -6.9 _ 080 _ 115 _ 5.9 __ 0.6 _ none
    jd ______________________4.6 _ 13.8 _ -6.2 _ 092 _ 107 _ 5.3 _ -2.1 _ none
    omicron _________________4.5 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 070 _ 120 _ 5.0 _ -1.0 _ none
    YouTookMyName __________4.5 _ 14.0 __ 0.3 _ 057 _ 042 _ 4.0 _ -1.2 _ none
    delw ___________________ 3.9 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 097 _11.0 __ 0.0 _ none
    M.T. Cranium ____________ 2.8 _ 14.0 _ -9.5 _ 080 _ 125 _ 5.0 _ -1.2 _ Finner
    _______________________________________________

    :) Helsinki will be equivalent to no snow.

    Good luck everyone, looks like a very interesting month ahead, raging cold zonality.
    YouTookMyName -- please let me know if you were entered previously under that name taken. Late entries will be edited in. This may move consensus slightly.

    The consensus indicates a near normal month temperature-wise with a slightly dry and sunny theme, nothing unusual expected around Christmas, only 5 of 24 predict any snow in Ireland on the 25th and most of them chose the northwest, one saying Ballyhaise. Not that these predictions would necessarily exclude other locations. While some have indicated a fairly severe cold spell at some point, nobody seems to feel that it would fall on Christmas Day.

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    I like the Helsinki entry. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Yep I entered. But never confirmed in thread. Cheers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Sherkin Island 11.6 deg Max yesterday so far December, I think.
    Will it be beaten on on Tuesday?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This is how the first week turned out (1-7 Dec) ...

    IMT at 4.9 C

    PRC at 44% of normal

    SUN at 129% of normal


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    stupid IMT - get up get up get up!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    IMT will go up ok, Con says


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Sherkin Island 11.6 deg Max yesterday so far December, I think.
    Will it be beaten on on Tuesday?

    12.3 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    -3.4 at Athenry appears to be the lowest temp on Saturday 13th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks (1-14 Dec) ...

    IMT at 4.8 C (second week was 4.7)

    PRC at 82% (second week 120%)

    SUN at 118% of normal (second week 107%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park 13.5 yesterday may be new max.
    Helsinki -12.8 may be new min!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I am quite excited about the bonus question. Present forecasts for Christmas Day is more or less matching my temperature prediction of max 4.3 Min -2.1.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    no its going to be -5c

    why

    coz i said so haha

    think the mountains of mayo and donegal will get snow so thats why i think knock has a chance

    Happy Christmas to all boardies especially the weatherfolk:)


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