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Aussie dollar falling

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12467…23

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    #92
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    It seems to be strengthening again, heading back towards 70c/$. I got the euro at 72c a few weeks ago on an overnight spike, hopefully we might get another bounce soon.

    BTW for those who don't think governments won't intervene again in gold trading, from india....
    If any importer of gold fails to export 20% of the gold from the arrived consignment, he would be barred from importing any more gold.
    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-07-22/news/40727808_1_gold-imports-rupee-us-dollar
    So on top of fluctuating price you also have to contend with government interference. I won't be surprised if China starts imposing severe restrictions on gold to force cash into the economy.

    As for the shuttering of mines, at the current price WA can't compete with Ghana in supplying China with gold.


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    #93
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    Of course some governments intervene. Indians are crazy about gold. They know inflation is coming...Don't fully understand why the government there is getting involed but it's the other way around in China:

    http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1289838/column-china-urges-citizens-to-buy-gold-and-silver
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/chinese-gold-demand-could-hit-1000-tonnes-this-year-gc/articleshow/21340938.cms

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl26KHz_y2E


    China does not export any of its gold...not sure about its silver.

    You may not value gold or silver, I don't really care too much for it...but its a must in the next 10 years.

    China has overtaken India as the largest importer of gold recently. Historically gold was what banks used to back a currency in the past.

    Gold is money...the paper was a receipt to claim the gold.

    No point in guessing what governments are going to do next.

    Anyone that bought gold in 2002 would have made over 500% on it.

    Flipping from AUD to Eur might make you a little...good luck to you if you do well on it


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    #94
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »

    Gold is money...the paper was a receipt to claim the gold.

    Flipping from AUD to Eur might make you a little...good luck to you if you do well on it
    Who' saying it isn't money? Money is any material that's interchangable for every other material. This thread is about keeping an eye on the best time to change currencies for people who aren't into speculating in commodities, there are plenty of sites that cater for gold speculating.

    Edit to add. So how much has gold gained in the last year?


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    #95
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    I would have thought gold bugs would have learnt their lesson over the past 12 months. Tell me china and India, how much gold are they importing and how much is their GDP worth? Gold will be a tiny fraction of that. Gold has no use what so ever apart from a store of value. It has no industrial use and pays no interest or dividend. If you are concerned about inflation invest in usable commodities like farmland, sugar, coffee, energy, materials, defensive retail, basic materials, high moat brands. Any of these with reason would be better than gold in my opinion. If you want to invest in gold make it at most 10% of your outlay. Going all in will leave you burnt like a sausage on Australia day.


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    #96
    Shy Ted
    Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭Shy Ted


    jank wrote: »
    It has no industrial use and pays no interest or dividend.

    Is gold not used in electronics, computers and satellites?


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    #97
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    attachment.php?attachmentid=830877&stc=1&d=1321269176

    91% of gold is used as some sort of store of wealth.
    There are some small uses of gold for electronics as you mention but its very small and no where near Silver or Platinum for example.

    The point is the metal itself is only expensive because people hoard it and want it as personal hedge not because its used as in industry. Other metals are expensive as there is high demand for its industrial use to make products.

    warren_buffet.jpg


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    #98
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Copper is the best gauge of industrial activity.

    Beyond its traditional roles Gold seems to act as a pretty good gauge of fear judging by how little logic and reason is used by gold bugs.
    Or you could be just trying to impress the ladies!
    Datta-Phuge.jpg


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    #99
    digiman
    Registered Users Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭digiman


    Looks to be in freefall today, down 1.5% today.


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    #100
    Slidey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭Slidey


    digiman wrote: »
    Looks to be in freefall today, down 1.5% today.

    Thankfully I sent a few quid home yday using currencyfair


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    #101
    colman1212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭colman1212


    This currency stuff is depressing me! I've saved a fair few dollars in Australia and just watching it go through the floor now. Was planning on moving home next year.


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    #102
    ifeelill
    Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ifeelill


    colman1212 wrote: »
    This currency stuff is depressing me! I've saved a fair few dollars in Australia and just watching it go through the floor now. Was planning on moving home next year.

    Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.


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    #103
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Any reason for the dip yesterday?

    Any indication as to whether it is likely to fall much further before the end of the year?

    Saving to go home for good in November, and watching my Aussie dollars depreciate like this is pretty gutting. :(


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    #104
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    Glen Stevens spoke at a dinner & basically said they would cut rates on Tuesday hence the drop.
    Get out. Get out of AUD or be prepared to stay here forever.


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    #105
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    ifeelill wrote: »
    Swings and roundabouts it'll turn around, it's just a question of when.

    And whether you'll be still alive when it does.


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    #106
    FernandoTorres
    Registered Users Posts: 647 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    It seems the AUD is only going to go one way now and that is weaker. The Aussie central bankers want to devalue it and there's plenty more room to maneuver with rates at 2.75% as long as inflation stays low. On the other side, Euro rates have never been lower so any reduction by Aus or increase by Euro is going to weaken the AUD. That said, who knows what the future holds! All fun and games in the FX markets!


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    #107
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,674 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    res ipsa wrote: »
    And whether you'll be still alive when it does.

    I think that is overly pessimistic. For the A$ to remain depressed would require China to stagnate for a similar period. I don't think that likely.

    There is also the elephant in the room - Greece. I find it a bit odd that the Euro has climbed again as if all is now sweet with the Euro and it's plain sailing from here. Calm before the storm perhaps.


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    #108
    Timistry
    Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭Timistry


    Just sent home a few bob to fund my xmas trip home whilst I have the money handy. Just in case it nosedives even more. I got some shock today when I saw the exchange rates. Its hard to believe I have lost 1000's euro in the past few months...:(


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    #109
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    It's all about what happens in China......

    ScreenHunter_15-Jul.-04-09.32.gif

    Especially for Perth.

    China-and-WA-Barclays-e1372920799332.jpg


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    #110
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    On a downward trend at the moment and China seems to be slowing down but personally I think its overdone. The US are still not out of the woods and Europe has huge question marks over it. It seems everything is on hold there until the German Elections are over and done with in September. Expect another crisis or four in the coming years.
    This time of year trading volumes are generally lower as lots of traders in the US and Europe are away on holidays. Expect a more realistic outlook come Labour Day in the US.


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    #111
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    China has an impact but the Fed in Washington has much more influence on the price of AUD than Iron Ore prices.


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    #112
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    jank wrote: »
    China has an impact but the Fed in Washington has much more influence on the price of AUD than Iron Ore prices.
    Would the Aussie$ have soared as high as it did over the last few years without the command economy of China?


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    #113
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Jeez, seems to have dropped a little again yesterday. Probably time to move a few grand home. Anyone know how much it costs generally to transfer money from an Aussie account to an Irish one? I'm with Commonwealth.


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    #114
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    catbear wrote: »
    Would the Aussie$ have soared as high as it did over the last few years without the command economy of China?

    Would the AUD-USD exchange rate have been at parity would it not have been for 3 rounds of QE and near zero % interest rates from the Fed? Remember, the AUD went from 1.02 USD to .92 in a matter of two weeks after the fed said that their buying up of US T-bills would be easing up in the medium term future and the long term future would see a rise in interest rates. China has had an affect of course but the Chinese economy has been slowing down for the past year or more at this stage. Watch what the Fed does to and see the impact on the AUD.


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    #115
    Legend100
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Legend100


    the flananator wrote: »
    Jeez, seems to have dropped a little again yesterday. Probably time to move a few grand home. Anyone know how much it costs generally to transfer money from an Aussie account to an Irish one? I'm with Commonwealth.

    open up a currencyfair account - it will save you a fortune

    google it (not sure if we are all allowed link directly in this forum)

    When I sent money home the first time I got here, $30 charge from CBA, terrible exchange rate and charged by BOI to receive foreign currency too!

    Avoid all this with currencyfair!!
    Just a simple $4 per transaction fee


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    #116
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Legend100 wrote: »
    open up a currencyfair account - it will save you a fortune

    google it (not sure if we are all allowed link directly in this forum)

    When I sent money home the first time I got here, $30 charge from CBA, terrible exchange rate and charged by BOI to receive foreign currency too!

    Avoid all this with currencyfair!!
    Just a simple $4 per transaction fee

    Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?


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    #117
    Legend100
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Legend100


    for eg CBA right now are selling euro for 0.6294 (per the website)
    currency fair rate is 0.6705

    That can be quite a saving if you are transferring large amounts......even though gone are days in April when it was 0.83!!!


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    #118
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    NEVER EVER transfer large sums of money using a normal bank account especially from the big four banks. They screw you royally on the exchange rate. I have a citi bank account and may use them if they have a good exchange rate. I think they offer free international money transfers for their everyday account just need to see how they derive their FX


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    #119
    Sundy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,512 ✭✭✭Sundy


    the flananator wrote: »
    Cheers for that. What kind of exchange rate do they give? Also, once I've put the money into the Currency Fair account, what happens then? What is the process of getting it from there into my Irish account?

    they have bank accounts in Ireland and Oz so you transfer the money here to their account here (oz) think its bank of america and it gets transferred out of their account in the dublin branch to you irish account.

    Works really good.


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    #120
    the flananator
    Registered Users Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭the flananator


    Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

    Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!


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    #121
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    the flananator wrote: »
    Cheers for that guys, really helpful.

    Now the big question, send my money home now and take the hit on the current rate, or wait a few months and see if it jumps back up a little..!

    I doubt the $Au will jump up it will continue to fall against the $US, but the € will probably fall giving the same effect.


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