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The financial crisis: Ten years on

  • 21-09-2017 8:32pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    It might not feel like it, but the last few weeks (arguably) mark the beginning of the Great financial crisis. On August 9th 2007, BNP Paribas froze €1.6bn worth of funds, on the basis that the subprime crisis was preventing it from calculating the value of the asset-backed securities funds and barred investors from redeeming cash from them. And the rest is history.

    I've been following this twitter feed, which is 'live streaming' the crisis as it happened ten years ago, and it's great. They've dug up some particularly interesting posts about Anglo too;
    • In 2007, Anglo was named by Oliver Wyman as the best bank in the world
    • On Sept 11 2007, Anglo's Chairman CEO meet with Sean Quinn at the Ardboyne Hotel, worried about the rumours that he owns c.a. 5% of the bank. They get a shock when it turns out he owns a quarter of Anglo's equity. If Quinn starts unloading his shares, they're screwed; Anglo's share price is already sliding
    • By Sept 15, short sellers are starting to go after Anglo, clearly one of the next banks in line to fall after Northern rock, as it's known that they have a similar reliance on short term funding.

    ...and that's only up to Sept 15 2007. Anglo (and Lehman) still don't fail for another year. So I thought this might be a good thread to discuss the crisis - and if anyone knows of any interesting articles or blog posts from ten years ago, please do share them here.


Comments



  • Be good to see an analysis of whether we would have been better or worse off over the ten years if we had of hit the nuclear button
    Seems alot of the money being paid for by the Irish taxpayer from bankrupt banks was external


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,704 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    "Stress Test" by ex treasury sec Geithner is one of the best books I've read on the crisis. No frills, no horse****, pragmatic view from the frontline. Riveting stuff.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    the next crisis is due this year or next year - i'd say italy will be one of the big headliners for europe.

    there are fascism movements going on over there already


    https://businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-are-issuing-tons-of-risky-loans-2017-10?IR=T




  • euser1984 - you might be a year early with your prediction, anyone else think we might see a GFC 2.0 and or a massive attempt to stave it off over the next 12 months?

    Markets are very volatile, yield curves flat, debt all round that would make your eyes water, money tightening, some global property markets cooling off (possibility of bank failures in some places which could have a 2008 domino effect), Deutsche bank in trouble again etc etc

    Yield curve inversion
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/recession-yield-curve-inversion-signal-2018-12

    Money tightening
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/a-global-credit-heart-attack-is-just-months-away-20181220-p50nbk.html

    Stocks performing like it was 1987 or 1929 etc etc
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/12/20/dow-jones-fed-rate/2373928002/
    Then jumping up the next day etc

    then there is the great unknown with China


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    My understanding is that there is a fear factor that has been generated by FFANG stocks - who has the pots of gold that are driving these powerful sweeps?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Fear can cause destruction, fear is driving trumps agenda. Donald Trump may be scared.




  • I suppose the question to ask is: What is an appropriate price to earnings ratio for the FANGs? and once answered do they have room to move up or down etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    The topman in blackrock investment group may have some answers. He looks like the attorney general in westminster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Trumps fear needs to be quelled.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    I believe an Irish Mason may have built the white house? The same man that built leinster house.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    the spirit of British colonialism is in the past


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    the leadership of the unity was developed in poland - it is a spirit everyone can tune into to make change fast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    I suppose the question to ask is: What is an appropriate price to earnings ratio for the FANGs? and once answered do they have room to move up or down etc

    You can't predict the future but you can create it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Mike Milken knows who the troublemakers are - Howard Marks does too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    special situations department in oaktree capital may be a good model or the solution in and of itself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Is that of any use to you Skyler Itchy Thunderbolt?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    the cabinets will react to outside force to create the future - it doesn't need to come from inside a think tank.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    euser1984 wrote: »
    the next crisis is due this year or next year - i'd say italy will be one of the big headliners for europe.

    there are fascism movements going on over there already


    https://businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-are-issuing-tons-of-risky-loans-2017-10?IR=T

    ITALY HAS FALLEN INTO RECESSION


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    ITALY HAS FALLEN INTO RECESSION
    Italy is a basket case, and is arguably now the worst of the PIIGS countries.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,704 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Italy is a basket case, and is arguably now the worst of the PIIGS countries.

    They've elected basket cases - will be interesting to see what effect the crushing economic reality will have on their silly populist policies, ideals and plans

    They may want to take a leaf from Syriza in Greece


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    There's a worrying trend towards the fiscal left in a lot of EU countries especially those of the PIIGs. Silly notions like populist socialist nonsense is going to be problematic for those remaining in employment to fund.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    Bank shares in Ireland plummeting post election today, with BOI down 4.2% an hour ago or so. AIB down 1.6% while Permanent TSB are 3.3% south.

    Property related stocks are down over 5% this morning too in the Dublin stock exchange.

    All this I can imagine will suit the right-wing narrative of "major instability" re the rise of SF.

    The chief reason is that those investors are fearing that the controversial and despised tax breaks for bankers will cease under SF proposals, which would have a negative impact on Irish banks balance sheets, "they say".


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    ELM327 wrote: »
    There's a worrying trend towards the fiscal left in a lot of EU countries especially those of the PIIGs. Silly notions like populist socialist nonsense is going to be problematic for those remaining in employment to fund.


    This intelligent and handsome poster clearly saw this coming :D


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