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Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

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12357…23

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    #122
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I remember that snow in early May. I was not sure of the year! I would love to see snow as late as June, not because it would be of much use, rather it would give us something to talk about. I hope the latest GFS is wrong about shunting the upcoming cold spell east. I was looking forward to some beefy snow showers at night. It would be great to see some settling snow by night too!
    The actual cold air isn’t shunted east, it’s just the colder air above 850hPa level.

    Though it still would be cold enough for snow in this scenario anyway.


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    #123
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Good,hopefully the downgrades continue

    May aswell go the whole hog and see how cold we can get it. What's the point in hoping for downgrades it would still won't be particularly spring like any way.

    I know cold weather in April isnt most people's cup of tea but as a weather enthusiast its interesting to see how cold we can get with this upcoming snap or spell.

    Anyway Summer isn't too far off............


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    #124
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Buried.......:P

    Someone is getting a covering....

    jknFGRB.png


    ctmdYIJ.png


    L615nMe.png


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    #125
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭daheff


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I remember that snow in early May.

    I remember snow in may too. Was in secondary school watching it out the window. Teacher gave me a bollocking for staring out the window instead of listening to her drivel.

    Didn't stick for more than a couple of hours though.

    That was early to mid 90s


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    #126
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭daheff


    Captain Snow wrote: »
    Buried.......:P

    Someone is getting a covering....

    Name checks out.......


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    #127
    External Association
    Registered Users Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭External Association


    daheff wrote: »
    I remember snow in may too. Was in secondary school watching it out the window. Teacher gave me a bollocking for staring out the window instead of listening to her drivel.

    Didn't stick for more than a couple of hours though.

    That was early to mid 90s

    Friday 14 May 1993.

    NOAA_1_1993051400_2.png


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    #128
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    There was some snow in early may 79, I was only 5 at the time but I do remember it settled for a while and being outside playing in it, although it wasn't too long before it turned to slush.


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    #129
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,061 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Just watching the bbc forecast there for Monday. Much much less in the way of showers forecast now.


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    #130
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    There will be a big cap from 700 hPa upwards over Ireland through Monday and Tuesday, so while the air below that will be cold, again we'll be in a scenario of relatively shallow convection and hence reduced precipitation rates, a bit like that spell in early February. The deepest convection will be further east, coinciding with that coldest upper pool.


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    #131
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Well I'll be watching the next model run and concentrating on my own region to see what is going on here, as we're further north and east.

    I seriously doubt that massive temperature gradient will yield nothing..


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    #132
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    West and South getting nothing from this. Ulster mainly. The line of real cold misses all Republic except parts of Ulster and North Leinster.

    Still there will probably be hail like the last cold spell. That chart with the pink for snow is only the showers and not snow cover. Granted there may be snow mixed with the rain in the Northwest but more hail and sleet in other areas.

    Met Eireann said this morning that lying snow is very unlikely below high ground.


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    #133
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    It does appear recent output has placed that really unstable cold air to our east for Monday /Tuesday

    A change from model output a few days ago that had this moving over us.

    So the risk of big beefy wintry showers has decreased

    gfs-13-72.png?12


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    #134
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yesterday's output had this running over us. We can't even get a proper Easter cold shot :P

    YESTERDAYS RUN FOR MONDAY

    gfs-13-96.png?12


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    #135
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    ninebeanrows wrote: »
    It does appear recent output has placed that really unstable cold air to our east for Monday /Tuesday

    A change from model output a few days ago that had this moving over us.

    So the risk of big beefy wintry showers has decreased

    gfs-13-72.png?12

    It’s a very abrupt change at the last minute so it could easily turn back.


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    #136
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    UKMO is further west than GFS. Not resolved yet but a pity the GFS has shifted it East somewhat.


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    #137
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Well I'll be watching the next model run and concentrating on my own region to see what is going on here, as we're further north and east.

    I seriously doubt that massive temperature gradient will yield nothing..

    I didn't say it would yield nothing, only that we (including you) won't be getting the heaviest precip.


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    #138
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I remember snow in May too, but it was more like in 95 or 96. I remember that period as I was living in a different part of town at the time. It was very sunny and quite warm yet we had brief fluffy snow showers (oft while the sun was shining!) during the afternoon. A sight to behold.

    New Moon



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    #139
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Tyrone212 wrote: »
    UKMO is further west than GFS. Not resolved yet but a pity the GFS has shifted it East somewhat.

    The ECM and ICON were showing that eastern focus yesterday so the GFS is now picking up on it too.

    Note too that 850 hPa will be around 200 m higher than it was back in the February event, so the same actual altitude amsl on Monday will be around 2 degrees warmer than at 850 hPa (-7 or -8)


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    #140
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    I didn't say it would yield nothing, only that we (including you) won't be getting the heaviest precip.

    Well maybe just maybe I’ll luck out.. I’ll just take a positive attitude anyway..


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    #141
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The weird thing about the GFS is that the lowest thickness values are over NE Scotland and Eastern GB but the coldest uppers are in the west of Ulster and NW Scotland?

    850hPa actually gets down to -12c on this run.


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    #142
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Well maybe just maybe I’ll luck out.. I’ll just take a positive attitude anyway..

    Maybe, but a positive or negative attitude won't make any bit of difference to what anyone will get. If only it did...


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    #143
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Maybe, but a positive or negative attitude won't make any bit of difference to what anyone will get. If only it did...

    I understand your perspective... however, the Synoptics aside from the thickness are still very good.

    -10c 850’s for 36 hours up here and as low as -12c that’s pretty good


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    #144
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The weird thing about the GFS is that the lowest thickness values are over NE Scotland and Eastern GB but the coldest uppers are in the west of Ulster and NW Scotland?

    850hPa actually gets down to -12c on this run.

    That's because there is no cap (above 700 hPa) over Scotland but there is further west. "Uppers" is a misleading term because it shouldn't only refer to 850 hPa. Levels above that are equally important too but rarely considered.


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    #145
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I understand your perspective... however, the Synoptics aside from the thickness are still very good.

    -10c 850’s for 48 hours up here and as low as -12c that’s pretty good

    Yes, of course it is, but preferably one or two months ago. At this time of the year it's just a nuisance, imo anyway.


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    #146
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Anyway... let’s look at the actual synoptic situation. This is for the GFS.

    I am showing Eglinton airport, my nearest airport.

    Lowest 850hPa is -12c, thickness is 517dam which is a rise but still very low. We are under -10c 850hPa or lower for 36 hours which is a pretty good run.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=Egae&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

    You can put in your local airport for Synoptics.


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    #147
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I am not seeing a cap in this sounding:

    OHIFw23.png


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    #148
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Anyway... let’s look at the actual synoptic situation. This is for the GFS.

    I am showing Eglinton airport, my nearest airport.

    Lowest 850hPa is -12c, thickness is 517dam which is a rise but still very low. We are under -10c 850hPa or lower for 36 hours which is a pretty good run.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=Egae&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

    You can put in your local airport for Synoptics.

    Unfortunately Owen those big juicy clouds are going be sliced around 700hPa so we won't get that vigorous convection for too long, the north might get a swipe.

    I'm sure most of us will see some flakes falling but unless things change back we will not be seeing widespread lying snow from this.


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    #149
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    ninebeanrows wrote: »
    Unfortunately Owen those big juicy clouds are going be sliced around 700hPa so we won't get that vigorous convection for too long, the north might get a swipe.

    I'm sure most of us will see some flakes falling but unless things change back we will not be seeing widespread lying snow from this.

    I imagine any snow showers in Scotland will make their way down here. Can’t see them breaking up that quickly. But we’ll see.

    North of Scotland is <200 miles.


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    #150
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    When I hear about 'capped convection' I just assume that shower clouds are going to be flattened and spread out, thus lasting longer and much lighter. The ultimate misery bringer in set ups like this (many such examples last winter!) I'll be happy enough if we see some good sunshine like today and that those misery bringing shower clouds just disappear altogether.

    New Moon



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    #151
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I imagine any snow showers in Scotland will make their way down here. Can’t see them breaking up that quickly. But we’ll see.

    North of Scotland is <200 miles.

    You haven't taken into account the legendary 'Scotland Shadow'.

    New Moon



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