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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Much of the rain missing the country on Weds apart from what looks like a weak occluded front, Thurs looking like a better chance of rain with a trailing cold front moving slowly up over the country. LP moving closer leading in to spells of windy wet weather at times over the weekend.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    We would be doing well in the Western half of the country if we got all that rain predicted by the ECM up to Sunday.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    We would be doing well in the Western half of the country if we got all that rain predicted by the ECM up to Sunday.

    East and southeast still at a huge defecit, and almost every day on the ECM will be >20 degrees. 20mm over that period is less than 2mm a day and there has been a worrying trend whereby rainfall predictions have been consistently downgraded.

    The UK faring much worse though, little or nothing in sight for England and parts of Wales:

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The latest update to met.ie NWP forecast for Carlow removes all rain for Carlow up to Saturday 7am wtf??!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain




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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Same here in Kildare, just checked met.ie to see what time to expect rain tomorrow evening and its showing sun from morning to night!

    That stuff in the Irish Sea looks thundery on that graphic, something to keep an eye on..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing rain approaching the SW around 3.00 - 4.00AM Predicted to be just light as it moves across the Eastern half of the country. Some heavy falls showing up for the SW. Some convective possibility also embedded in the front possibly producing some locally heavy rain also as it advances inland.

    American Models similar to the ICON. I think it will be more like a cross between the ECM and HIRLAM.

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    ICON very light prediction, think this is an Outlier

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Getting windy overnight up along Atlantic coasts and breezy up through the country tomorrow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think all the models underestimated the rainfall totals for today , ECM probably closest.

    Tomorrow rain arriving on the W/ SW coasts early morning as light rain peters out in E . Heavy rain moving in from the S Fri evening and moving up over much of the country in the early hours of Sat and clearing the N mid morning. Good totals predicted.


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    6 hour totals

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    Sat 07.00Predicted Total precipitation for the previous 24 hrs.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HIRLAM Rainfall prediction up until early Sat

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    Predicted accumulation up until early Sat.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy again tomorrow on Atlantic coasts and breezy across the country through the day. A spell of windy blustery weather Saturday .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Low Pressure systems over the weekend from a mobile Atlantic . Should get a good share of rain by next Weds.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing the next main band of rain missing us in the early hours part from the S and SE coasts. The ARPEGE and HIRLAM bring more of it over the country. Met Eireann going with Rain along southern coastal counties spreading inland to much of East Munster and West Leinster by morning. Heavy in places.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Another band of rain Sun night/ Monday morning. Models differing with this in amount of rain but looks to sweep across the country during the early hours.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Could get windy along Southern coasts in the early hours of Monday morning.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy along Atlantic coasts from the early hours of Tues . Showers mostly in the W /NW

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Low pressure pushing up from the south tonight into tomorrow will bring temperatures back up for a time to the high teens and touching 20c. Cooler again on Monday as the 546 dam line makes its return after a one day break but not lasting for long.

    Quite a chart for the heart of Summer tomorrow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    System approaching Western coasts in the early hours, should be a decent fall of rain as the fronts move onshore ,mostly in the W and NW , less so in the SW . Less rain the further East. Showers throughout the day from the W. Getting windy along atlantic coasts with small craft warning at sea increasing force 6 to 7 and gusty, extending to all sea areas by tomorrow morning. Breezy / gusty overland.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A wave LP system approaching the SW Tomorrow with fronts moving in over the country from early bringing rain to all parts eventually. Windy too and could get a bit windy in the late afternoon / early evening along the SE and E.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ARPEGE 12Z take on the weather tomorrow. Wet, cloudy and windy. Getting up to high teens or touching 20C perhaps.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking like overcast ( Low stratus for a lot of the day ) and damp tomorrow, rain and misty conditions again. Most rain along Atlantic counties. Temps poor along Atlantic coasts bit better inland and warmest the more E ( wonder will the E get a bit of sunshine maybe up until around early afternoon ). Muggy and humid tomorrow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Decent temperatures forecast tomorrow and Sunday to mid 20's, low 20's Sat. Fall off in Temperatures early next week.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Shortwave trough moving over Ireland Weds and Thurs with associated cold uppers looks like giving rise to showery and possibly thundery weather both days.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Quite a windy Friday night possibly.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    GFS and GEM show the Azores high ridging back Tue/Wed


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Been watching that aea of LP in the Atlantic W of the Azores for some days. It has been upgraded to subtropical storm status but is set to dissipate within 48 hrs and become embedded in the trough moving E towards Ireland which brings rain and winds to us over the weekend. Earlier predictions were showing the bulk of the rain Fri but this has been pushed back to late Fri into Sat. Amounts have also been downgraded by the models , but still early days. I have observed these setups produce a lot of rain and was thinking it might but maybe not this time. Winds have also been downgraded somewhat at this stage as the system that reaches us has lost its shape and begins to fill becoming occluded and fronts begin to dissipate. Still a few more days of tweaks . ECM and GFS quite similar. the other models have a lot of variation yet.
    Feeling mild and humid Fri night into Sat under and behind the warm fronts.

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    I899
    WTNT44 KNHC 071455
    TCDAT4

    Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
    1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018

    The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North
    Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical
    characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status.
    The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well
    removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are
    occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection.
    Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no
    significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon
    be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger
    mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to
    dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.

    The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
    degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this
    general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
    hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
    which will eventually absorb Debby.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/1500Z 38.9N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Avila



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest GFS 18Z showing over 25mm of rain for many places in Connaught in 24 hrs between 20.00 Fri and 20.00 Sat .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Latest GFS 18Z showing over 25mm of rain for many places in Connaught in 24 hrs between 20.00 Fri and 20.00 Sat .

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    Is it too soon to start a “will it ever stop raining again thread “



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Unfortunately km79 rain is badly wanted in some parts of the country,growth has stopped again and ground is rock hard and cracking


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  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Unfortunately km79 rain is badly wanted in some parts of the country,growth has stopped again and ground is rock hard and cracking

    I know
    Ye can have it
    Most parts of Connacht can do without an inch a day now
    Hopefully it moves to the South East !


This discussion has been closed.
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