Property Market 2018

Pussyhands · 12-09-2018 3:27pm

Augeo wrote: »

Are you hoping for a property crash so you can buy outright or something?
No one has a crystal ball

Well that would be ideal for me but it's not related to this conversation.

Pussyhands · 12-09-2018 3:29pm

ELM327 wrote: »

If it rains it will be wet.

Don't see your relevance here mate

Recession comes, jobs are lost. People in this thread say that mortgages won't default as mortgages can be paid on one salary.

Those foreigners only here for work will leave the country if they lose their jobs, freeing up lots of accomodation making rent cheaper and in turn bringing down property prices.

Not saying it'll happen but if a lot of jobs are lost then this will happen.

ELM327 · 12-09-2018 3:32pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Recession comes, jobs are lost. People in this thread say that mortgages won't default as mortgages can be paid on one salary.

Those foreigners only here for work will leave the country if they lose their jobs, freeing up lots of accomodation making rent cheaper and in turn bringing down property prices.

Not saying it'll happen but if a lot of jobs are lost then this will happen.

A foreigner here for work is a lot better than a leech here for Cash.

12-09-2018 3:34pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Well that would be ideal for me but it's not related to this conversation.

So why are you speeling on about.........

Pussyhands wrote: »

Recession comes, jobs are lost. People in this thread say that mortgages won't default as mortgages can be paid on one salary.

Those foreigners only here for work will leave the country if they lose their jobs, freeing up lots of accomodation making rent cheaper and in turn bringing down property prices.

Not saying it'll happen but if a lot of jobs are lost then this will happen.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 12-09-2018 3:39pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Like the 20k new home FTB grant, house prices to increase €50k overnight if this is approved:

http://www.thejournal.ie/fianna-fail-affordable-housing-4231161-Sep2018/

It's not a direct grant to buyers as I read it though? More a developers subsidy? Still woeful policy. Ff obviously haven't changed a bit from the last go round

keane2097 · 12-09-2018 4:15pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Recession comes, jobs are lost. People in this thread say that mortgages won't default as mortgages can be paid on one salary.

Those foreigners only here for work will leave the country if they lose their jobs, freeing up lots of accomodation making rent cheaper and in turn bringing down property prices.

Not saying it'll happen but if a lot of jobs are lost then this will happen.

Falling property prices have no impact on the affordability of mortgage repayments you know.

Bob24 · 12-09-2018 4:25pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Like the 20k new home FTB grant, house prices to increase €50k overnight if this is approved:

http://www.thejournal.ie/fianna-fail-affordable-housing-4231161-Sep2018/

Well that’s exactly what we need ... if we want to gift tax money to developers, create an unsustainable property bubble, and crash the market.

I especially enjoyed that particular comment:

O’Brien said such a scheme is not all that new, stating that the government had a similar affordable housing scheme a number of years ago, until it was wound down by the Fine Gael.

Do I get it wrong or is he really comparing it to FF’s property policies before the crash and arguing they led to a desirable outcome last time around??

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 12-09-2018 9:11pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Well that’s exactly what we need ... if we want to gift tax money to developers, create an unsustainable property bubble, and crash the market.

I especially enjoyed that particular comment:

Do I get it wrong or is he really comparing it to FF’s property policies before the crash and arguing they led to a desirable outcome last time around??

That is some spectacular reasoning by o brien. Ff will do exactly the same ****e again if they ever get back in

Marcusm · 12-09-2018 9:21pm

Augeo wrote: »

We don't have bucket loads of folk involved in construction and various boom type bullsh1t jobs these days buying property like the last time. There's a shortage of property to buy and as mentioned the CB rules are quite conservative with respect to folk taking on risky mortgages.

Most of the facebook and google folk are renters I would imagine, some might argue they are sort of precarious boom type jobs.

The continued investment by Google in owned office space and the rumours that Facebook wants to buy approx 1m sq ft at Bankcentre likely means that those organisations see a stable level of employment in Ireland over the medium term. Elsewise they would rent (as is much more common in the corporate sector).

12-09-2018 11:47pm

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, when I said facebook and google type jobs might be the ones some might argue are sort of precarious boom type jobs I wasn't suggesting that was my view.

I know.....

Marcusm wrote: »

The continued investment by Google in owned office space and the rumours that Facebook wants to buy approx 1m sq ft at Bankcentre likely means that those organisations see a stable level of employment in Ireland over the medium term. Elsewise they would rent (as is much more common in the corporate sector).

utmbuilder · 13-09-2018 4:02am

prices are really stalling this month and its the estate agents fault

they toss a house on daft and myhome and thats it, they should be using a data driven approch to tighten the net on the buyers who are less savvy

they are in the stone age, if people are not getting their asking sit tight for it

its a weird market with buyers disappearing and coming back month to month

new builds would concern me in years to come, id your in an area where 700 homes are sold annual and 500 new houses are being built and intend to sell its something to really consider

Bob24 · 13-09-2018 4:57am

utmbuilder wrote: »

prices are really stalling this month and its the estate agents fault

they toss a house on daft and myhome and thats it, they should be using a data driven approch to tighten the net on the buyers who are less savvy

they are in the stone age, if people are not getting their asking sit tight for it

I’ve came accros quite a few agents who maintain a list of potential buyers and actively try to match offer and demand. For something like property I don’t think there is much more they can do, and Daft and MyHome are pretty decent central repositories which are easy to browse for someone looking for property. Plus given the housing crisis we are in I have no doubt buyers are pretty much all savvy and will find any advertised property which might be of interest to them - if there is a blocker it is affordability.

In any case, EAs were using the exact same approach a year ago, so any change on the market has little to do with their sales techniques.

Roberto_gas · 13-09-2018 6:02am

utmbuilder wrote:

its a weird market with buyers disappearing and coming back month to month

Buyers are taking time to accunmulate deposits..coming back as soon as they have it...this is not going to stall anytime soon..

mickrick1 · 13-09-2018 1:49pm

Hi - Interested in a bit of direction or any suggestions. I have access to just over 250k (95 k of which has been approved in principle by my bank). I own my home, so wondering where would be the best place to invest in property? I was guessing Dublin but not sure if it would be best to invest in a larger property, maybe semi detached near to Dublin or go for an apartment closer to the centre. Within the price constraints what would be the best way to invest the money. All help would be very much appreciated.

Shedite27 · 13-09-2018 1:54pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Hi - Interested in a bit of direction or any suggestions. I have access to just over 250k (95 k of which has been approved in principle by my bank). I own my home, so wondering where would be the best place to invest in property? I was guessing Dublin but not sure if it would be best to invest in a larger property, maybe semi detached near to Dublin or go for an apartment closer to the centre. Within the price constraints what would be the best way to invest the money. All help would be very much appreciated.

By "invest" i assume you're looking to rent it out?

If not, where do you want to "live"

mickrick1 · 13-09-2018 2:11pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

By "invest" i assume you're looking to rent it out?

If not, where do you want to "live"

Yes, I'm looking to invest. I have seen a number of 1 and 2 bedroom properties in or near to Dublin city centre but just wondering about any pitfalls to look out for. Alternatively, would it be better to invest in a slightly larger property in a commutable town close to Dublin. Not averse to investing in other cities but just thought demand and returns would be higher in Dublin area.

mickrick1 · 13-09-2018 2:12pm

Apologies - meant rent not invest.

Browney7 · 13-09-2018 2:44pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Apologies - meant rent not invest.

Are you aware of the legislation relating to your obligations as a landlord etc? LL's on here will think you are crazy for comsidering getting into the market.

Have you considered investing in a REIT instead?

Samuel T. Cogley · 13-09-2018 2:48pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Hi - Interested in a bit of direction or any suggestions. I have access to just over 250k (95 k of which has been approved in principle by my bank). I own my home, so wondering where would be the best place to invest in property? I was guessing Dublin but not sure if it would be best to invest in a larger property, maybe semi detached near to Dublin or go for an apartment closer to the centre. Within the price constraints what would be the best way to invest the money. All help would be very much appreciated.

1 bed near the centre, ideally on the southside are a great investment opportunity. Bid high and bid often :pac:

Samuel T. Cogley · 13-09-2018 2:51pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Yes, I'm looking to invest. I have seen a number of 1 and 2 bedroom properties in or near to Dublin city centre but just wondering about any pitfalls to look out for. Alternatively, would it be better to invest in a slightly larger property in a commutable town close to Dublin. Not averse to investing in other cities but just thought demand and returns would be higher in Dublin area.

Seriously though, cc is they way to go imo. They'll always be people looking for cc apartments and generally their is less to go wrong.

mickrick1 · 13-09-2018 9:05pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Seriously though, cc is they way to go imo. They'll always be people looking for cc apartments and generally their is less to go wrong.

Thanks for the responses - much appreciated. I had thought that city centre would be the best option. I just wondered if I could get a decent enough property for 250k. I know that there are huge numbers working for Google, Facebook etc. Wouldn't be sure that the type of property I could get would appeal to this rental market. There appears to be a few options on Daft but haven't contacted any Auctioneers as yet.

handlemaster · 14-09-2018 6:39pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Thanks for the responses - much appreciated. I had thought that city centre would be the best option. I just wondered if I could get a decent enough property for 250k. I know that there are huge numbers working for Google, Facebook etc. Wouldn't be sure that the type of property I could get would appeal to this rental market. There appears to be a few options on Daft but haven't contacted any Auctioneers as yet.

daft.ie search will tell u

_brendand_ · 14-09-2018 6:47pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Thanks for the responses - much appreciated. I had thought that city centre would be the best option. I just wondered if I could get a decent enough property for 250k. I know that there are huge numbers working for Google, Facebook etc. Wouldn't be sure that the type of property I could get would appeal to this rental market. There appears to be a few options on Daft but haven't contacted any Auctioneers as yet.

You'll get a one bed apartment, no more than that, and be prepared to bid until you're successful. There should be lots of people on good salaries looking for a pad for themselves in the center, if you do it up nicely.

oceanman · 14-09-2018 6:50pm

mickrick1 wrote: »

Thanks for the responses - much appreciated. I had thought that city centre would be the best option. I just wondered if I could get a decent enough property for 250k. I know that there are huge numbers working for Google, Facebook etc. Wouldn't be sure that the type of property I could get would appeal to this rental market. There appears to be a few options on Daft but haven't contacted any Auctioneers as yet.

with all the landlords leaving the market because they supposedly cant make any money! you should have no trouble picking up something..

Zenify · 14-09-2018 9:35pm

oceanman wrote: »

with all the landlords leaving the market because they supposedly cant make any money! you should have no trouble picking up something..

Very well said

The_Conductor · 15-09-2018 9:17am

oceanman wrote: »

with all the landlords leaving the market because they supposedly cant make any money! you should have no trouble picking up something..

The issue is the regulatory environment whereby even now- if a tenant decides to play the system- it can take over 2 years to regain vacant possession of a property that a tenant decides to stop paying the rent on. In addition- there just isn't any point in pursuing a case against them- they only have to plead penury- and you get nothing (or a derisory amount) from them- alongside your own legal costs (they get free legal aid).

Its a rigged system.

If the ability to reclaim a property promptly when a tenant overholds- and to impose a financial sanction that you could actually effect- was implemented- you'd have prospective landlords piling into the system.

According to the RTB- the lions share of 'new' landlords in the last 3 years- are the housing associations who are being encouraged to list tenancies one by one (other than in communal developments) which gives the absolute number of landlords an artificial boost- however, even that 'trick' has reached the end of the road.........

Rents are far beyond where they should be- and for some people that is incentive enough to keep going- however, for others- its a clarion call highlighting how unsustainable the situation is.

Salaries in some sectors- are doing very nicely- if you work in IT, Finance or a small subset of other sectors- you are doing very well indeed. For everyone else- the crash of 10 years ago- and the years of the wilderness- have never ended- we may have jobs- however, our pay rates may never recover- and job security and benefits will never ever be what they once were. Some salient issues trundling along in the undergrowth that haven't really factored for today's workers- include the incremental increases being added to the age at which the old age pension vests- we are rapidly going down the road of never retiring............

Current rent levels-other than for corporate and extremely high spec lettings- are clearly unsustainable- and need to fall. How/when this happens- is a function of just how quickly supply can be ramped up. The issue with the rental sector- is the absolute number of units in the sector- is not growing apace with demand- thanks to a reticence among the traditional landlords to buy further additional units (or indeed a single unit- which traditionally was the 'pension' for many people).

We need more supply (in general)- however, when we do get more supply- we need to be cognisant of how this supply is going to affect the macro housing environment (which in a Dublin context- where many people are suggesting prices have plateau'ed- means a further exodus from the market).

Houses in an Irish context- have an extremely troubled history- a history that we quite simply don't seem to have learnt any lessons from.

If someone wants to buy an apartment in Dublin city centre to rent out- at 250k- good luck to them finding one in a reasonable neighbourhood- and good luck to them if they ever have an issue with their tenant. They might get lucky- perhaps- perhaps not.

The latest FF wheeze- sounds like Property Bubble Mark 2- a race to see if we can bust a few more banks............

smurgen · 15-09-2018 9:58am

Personally wouldn't be buying for the next year or two,**** story on the way and god only knows what the knock on effects to our exonomy will be https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

q85dw7osi4lebg · 15-09-2018 1:38pm

smurgen wrote: »

Personally wouldn't be buying for the next year or two,**** story on the way and god only knows what the knock on effects to our exonomy will be https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

Yeah better off to keep paying money to a landlord without security of tenancy until prices drop in the recession which will definitely happen in two years at which point nobody will give you a mortgage on a house, either because banks won't be lending or because you'll be unemployed.

Loves_lorries · 15-09-2018 2:26pm

I know it's just one example but the commuter belt around Galway City ( between 20 km and 30 km out) has most definitely hit a price limit, we had our five bed bungalow valued at 220k eighteen months ago, nothing is making more than 250 k today, ours has an acre around the house but the road is secondary so not as valuable as a house on a main road.

Anyway I don't know if that means much overall but pre crash this house would easily make 350k, it appears today that buyers will pay far more to avoid a commute.

PS. We bought in 2012 for 140k but have spent about 25k on improving it.

smurgen · 15-09-2018 2:26pm

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Personally wouldn't be buying for the next year or two,**** story on the way and god only knows what the knock on effects to our exonomy will be https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

Yeah better off to keep paying money to a landlord without security of tenancy until prices drop in the recession which will definitely happen in two years at which point nobody will give you a mortgage on a house, either because banks won't be lending or because you'll be unemployed.

Better off paying an overpriced mortgage for two years and when your company goes bust and you scrimp and struggle to pay your mortgage and in the end post your keys back to the bank because you can't find a job and no one is buying you can move back in with your elderly parents until you've enough money to emigrate.

Property Market 2018

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