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Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

  • 25-09-2020 6:38pm
    #1
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭


    Mod Note

    there's been lots of discussion about EU corporation tax rates, long-term bank performance, unemployment and other things which might impact the property market in the medium to long term. All things which might effect the property market in the medium - long term.

    For unrelated discussion of economic, please use the economics forum.

    For discussion of the property market in 2020 we have another thread here:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058095305

    Thanks



    There’s been a lot of chat about it recently, but in the context of house prices the future of our 12.5% rate and how it applies to MNCs is significant.

    Worst case scenario some Eu directive outlaws it and they upsticks and leave 10s of thousands jobless. That won’t help house prices.

    Certainly a relevant discussion in my opinion.


«134567

Comments

  • #2
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    schmittel wrote: »
    There’s been a lot of chat about it recently, but in the context of house prices the future of our 12.5% rate and how it applies to MNCs is significant.

    Worst case scenario some Eu directive outlaws it and they upsticks and leave 10s of thousands jobless. That won’t help house prices.

    Certainly a relevant discussion in my opinion.

    How much of that is likely to happen in 2020 ?


  • #3
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    How much of that is likely to happen in 2020 ?

    Tell that to the investors who bought all those properties in Longford in the Celtic Tiger years. Yes, the tax reliefs were great until they figured out they couldn't rent or sell them. The tax reliefs increased the prices of those properties from under c. €100k to €250k+ and right back down again a year or two later and they haven't recovered.

    Tax has been the major driver of both house prices and employment in Ireland over the past 20 years. Both are under threat at the moment.


  • #4
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Graham wrote: »
    How much of that is likely to happen in 2020 ?

    I suspect none of it, as all parties concerned have bigger issues on their mind.

    But it is certainly relevant on the day the EU appeal a court ruling saying our tax arrangements are in order.

    And often in this thread long term considerations are discussed that might impact the value of a new build housing estate, like future planning permissions in the area or long term plans for public transport upgrAdes.

    Or we often discuss the need to build 30k houses a year for the next decade with impunity.

    Equally it seems to be an acceptable comment that prices will not fall in the short term because pharma and tech buyers are going gangbusters.

    If I was a buyer in 2020 entering into a 30 year mortgage all these long term factors would be relevant to me.

    But I sense you are saying it is irrelevant?


  • #5
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    schmittel wrote: »
    If I was a buyer in 2020 entering into a 30 year mortgage all these long term factors would be relevant to me.

    But I sense you are saying it is irrelevant?
    PropQueries wrote: »
    Tell that to the investors who bought all those properties in Longford in the Celtic Tiger years. Yes, the tax reliefs were great until they figured out they couldn't rent or sell them. The tax reliefs increased the prices of those properties from under c. €100k to €250k+ and right back down again a year or two later and they haven't recovered.

    Tax has been the major driver of both house prices and employment in Ireland over the past 20 years. Both are under threat at the moment.

    There should definitely be a thread to discuss the long-term implications of taxation on the Irish property market.

    I'll see if I can split out some of the recent posts.....


  • #6
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    You should definitely start a thread to discuss the long-term implications of tax on the Irish property market.

    I don't think it's long term. More immediate term (we'll find out in a few weeks time with the budget). But until then, you're right. :)


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  • #7
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Why dont we discuss the presidential election or new supreme court judge? These are relevant in a very tangential way to the Irish property market.

    Let it be a complete free for all.

    The budget is on 13th October. That budget will decide whether developers slash their prices or not come the 14th October for the remainder of the year.

    Tax, help-to-buy etc. which will be made public knowledge on the 13th October will decide the prices charged for the remainder of the year i.e. will the smaller developers follow Glenveagh's lead and slash prices?

    But I do agree with you that it's not a discussion until that date: REMEMBER - 6p.m. on the 13th October will be very very interesting here and as sad as my life appears to be, I'm actually looking forward to seeing and debating the discussion on here... :)


  • #8
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Why dont we discuss the presidential election or new supreme court judge? These are relevant in a very tangential way to the Irish property market.

    Let it be a complete free for all.

    They’re tangential indeed.

    But only an utter fool would suggest Ireland’s corporate tax rate and the jobs it supports was tangential to the Irish property market.

    Though some might say the thread is a free for all for utter fools.


  • #9
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Thread split from Property Market 2020.


  • #10
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    They’re tangential indeed.

    But only an utter fool would suggest Ireland’s corporate tax rate and the jobs it supports was tangential to the Irish property market.

    Though some might say the thread is a free for all for utter fools.

    We also need to consider changes to US tax system in the event of Biden winning election. I don’t think it puts at risk existing jobs in Ireland, recession aside, but could impact future FDI and jobs. Future FDI is where I think the real risk is as opposed to MNCs leaving.


  • #11
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Tell that to the investors who bought all those properties in Longford in the Celtic Tiger years. Yes, the tax reliefs were great until they figured out they couldn't rent or sell them. The tax reliefs increased the prices of those properties from under c. €100k to €250k+ and right back down again a year or two later and they haven't recovered.

    Tax has been the major driver of both house prices and employment in Ireland over the past 20 years. Both are under threat at the moment.

    First off if the prices were sub 130-150k these properties would never have been built as development costs were higher than that. Problem was investors who bought them were not clued in to either local rental market or aware of the implications of group/pool rental costs.

    Most who bought them assumed that after claiming back Vat (in some cases) and the allowing of capital allowances against other rental income that you could not lose. It was similar to some of the hotel building that went on in locations where there was limited demand.

    Costs in pooled rental (PR's) schemes in general are excessively high. In any situation where you are not in control of costs these can climb. There are two area's where PR's are involved. Student accommodation and holiday homes. In the case of Student accomodation some of the places that these were build the demand was not there mostly around institute's of technology especially where there was no summer demand due to tourism. These gave become delapitated. However in other area's demand strong and returns adequate after costs

    The other ones were Holiday homes that were bought with the presumption that the returns after claiming back Vat would cover loan repayments a lot of these were bought by people with no other rental income become who found PR returns hardly paid 2-3 months of the year's loan repayments.

    Savvy investors know you need a return of 6-10% in area's of fairly good capital appreciation of property and rents but in areas were rents are not so strong and capital appreciation is poor you need a 10% +return.

    As a lot of these properties have been repossessed and sold most have washed through the market and any coming at present are bought by either investors at knockdown prices or people who are this opportunity to purchase a holiday home at twice the price of a fancy mobile home with similar costs involved

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • #12
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    First off if the prices were sub 130-150k these properties would never have been built as development costs were higher than that. Problem was investors who bought them were not clued in to either local rental market or aware of the implications of group/pool rental costs.

    Most who bought them assumed that after claiming back Vat (in some cases) and the allowing of capital allowances against other rental income that you could not lose. It was similar to some of the hotel building that went on in locations where there was limited demand.

    Costs in pooled rental (PR's) schemes in general are excessively high. In any situation where you are not in control of costs these can climb. There are two area's where PR's are involved. Student accommodation and holiday homes. In the case of Student accomodation some of the places that these were build the demand was not there mostly around institute's of technology especially where there was no summer demand due to tourism. These gave become delapitated. However in other area's demand strong and returns adequate after costs

    The other ones were Holiday homes that were bought with the presumption that the returns after claiming back Vat would cover loan repayments a lot of these were bought by people with no other rental income become who found PR returns hardly paid 2-3 months of the year's loan repayments.

    Savvy investors know you need a return of 6-10% in area's of fairly good capital appreciation of property and rents but in areas were rents are not so strong and capital appreciation is poor you need a 10% +return.

    As a lot of these properties have been repossessed and sold most have washed through the market and any coming at present are bought by either investors at knockdown prices or people who are this opportunity to purchase a holiday home at twice the price of a fancy mobile home with similar costs involved

    Would that mean any property generating a rent of c. €1,300 a month shouldn’t sell for more than c. €150k? To a potential investor anyway.


  • #13
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Would that mean any property generating a rent of c. €1,300 a month shouldn’t sell for more than c. €150k? To a potential investor anyway.
    It would depend on the property and whether there was a possibility of CA (in the long term or not) and the price range the property is in. As well it would depend on what part of the economics cycle you were low in the cycle you be willing to accept lesser returns on the proability that yield and CA will be in play.

    A 1300 euro/months is a yield yield if 15600 so an investor should only look at it in the 155-250 range. With rents hight at present any investor should only look at it if it was sub 200K. If there was poor CA then you should only be interested in the 100-150K bracket.

    But there may be other factors in play such as if there was investment the yield could rise substantially

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #14
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    From my opinion many land lords has serious problems with maths
    They asking 1500 for rent keeping property empty number of months
    What is average 1000 per month
    And they looking for another tenants next year also loosing same amount of money
    Is it not easier make price 1000 per month and have tenants 12 months per year ?
    Because the less tenants changing them property
    The less damage of the property landlord has ?
    From my own opinion I would never invest to property for rent
    The taxation/rules changing every year leaving less profit
    The only way I would invest to property
    Is investing/buying property were I could use machines for creating product
    Because creating product I create money


  • #15
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    By the number of Garda check points on road ( been stopped twice today )
    Just for NCT/tax/insurance check
    I think government has serious problems with cash flow at the moment
    This was the same during last 2008 recession
    The more heavier taxation on property will be
    The less money government will have spend to support tennants
    At the moment I think the best way get rid of property for rent was pre 2019 Pre Covid time
    In 2021 many land lords will have choice or pay all incomes from property due with heavy taxation
    Or get rid of the property losing half property price
    There will be no any better in 2023/2027
    This will be not Recession
    This will be Mother of Recessions !


  • #16
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    neutral guy wrote: »
    By the number of Garda check points on road ( been stopped twice today )
    Just for NCT/tax/insurance check
    I think government has serious problems with cash flow at the moment
    This was the same during last 2008 recession
    The more heavier taxation on property will be
    The less money government will have spend to support tennants
    At the moment I think the best way get rid of property for rent was pre 2019 Pre Covid time
    In 2021 many land lords will have choice or pay all incomes from property due with heavy taxation
    Or get rid of the property losing half property price
    There will be no any better in 2023/2027
    This will be not Recession
    This will be Mother of Recessions !

    This post, like all your other posts, is all over the place and completely lacking any basis in reality. Do you honestly think the gardai are doing tax/NCT checks because the State has cash flow issues? Because that is absolutely hilarious if you do.


  • #17
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    This post, like all your other posts, is all over the place and completely lacking any basis in reality. Do you honestly think the gardai are doing tax/NCT checks because the State has cash flow issues? Because that is absolutely hilarious if you do.


    I think the same !
    Even if economy will die
    She will be in paradise after death !
    Together with property market for sure !


  • #18
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It amazing lads we ho do not own rental properties telling lads that have any number of them bought and often paid for how to run there business

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #19
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    It amazing lads we ho do not own rental properties telling lads that have any number of them bought and often paid for how to run there business

    I do not own property for rent because I think property for rent is waste of time and money.

    The commercial property market is dead
    The residential property market are on life support equipment at the moment.

    My cordless drill for 140 euros making more money for me than some land lords getting rent from 200K property !


  • #20
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Neutral Guy, knock it off. Read the thread title before posting again.

    Do not reply to this post.


  • #21
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think property, particularly Dublin houses, is facing an uphill struggle in the medium/long term. Some of it will have a short term impact in my opinion.

    Headwinds:

    Buyers approaching peak affordability.

    Domestic/Global recession = rise in unemployment, fall in mortgage credit, fall in consumer confidence.

    Our tax treatment of MNCs will come under increasing attack. I don't think it will hold, leading to further job losses, putting pressure on both sales prices and rents.

    WFH - like it or loathe it, this is a very definite trend, and is likely to have a significant impact on Dublin property

    Airbnb - I had expected new minister to have come down hard on airbnb by now, so maybe he does not intend to. In any case the airbnb market will struggle without tourists, and if we see these properties either rental market or sales market it will put downward pressure on prices.

    Demographics - in medium/long term we have a generation of Dublin homeowners (50 -75+) selling up/passing away. It seems like a lot of the generation beneath them (30-50) already have or will have been priced out of the Dublin suburbs, and settled in North Wicklow, Kildare, Meath commuter belt communities. Will the following generation (-30) pay today's prices or higher for the Dublin suburbs? If not, who's going to buy them?

    Tailwinds:

    Inflation - if we start seeing significant inflation house prices will rise. This may be accelerated further as property is a good hedge against inflation.

    Govt policies - successive governments have provided support for higher prices. This will probably continue, certainly in the short term.

    Needless to say I am fairly bearish in the medium/long term, weighing up all the influencing factors it just seems to me that most of them will be putting downward pressure on prices.


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  • #22
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    I think property, particularly Dublin houses, is facing an uphill struggle in the medium/long term. Some of it will have a short term impact in my opinion.

    Headwinds:

    Buyers approaching peak affordability.

    Domestic/Global recession = rise in unemployment, fall in mortgage credit, fall in consumer confidence.

    Our tax treatment of MNCs will come under increasing attack. I don't think it will hold, leading to further job losses, putting pressure on both sales prices and rents.

    WFH - like it or loathe it, this is a very definite trend, and is likely to have a significant impact on Dublin property

    Airbnb - I had expected new minister to have come down hard on airbnb by now, so maybe he does not intend to. In any case the airbnb market will struggle without tourists, and if we see these properties either rental market or sales market it will put downward pressure on prices.

    Demographics - in medium/long term we have a generation of Dublin homeowners (50 -75+) selling up/passing away. It seems like a lot of the generation beneath them (30-50) already have or will have been priced out of the Dublin suburbs, and settled in North Wicklow, Kildare, Meath commuter belt communities. Will the following generation (-30) pay today's prices or higher for the Dublin suburbs? If not, who's going to buy them?

    Tailwinds:

    Inflation - if we start seeing significant inflation house prices will rise. This may be accelerated further as property is a good hedge against inflation.

    Govt policies - successive governments have provided support for higher prices. This will probably continue, certainly in the short term.

    Needless to say I am fairly bearish in the medium/long term, weighing up all the influencing factors it just seems to me that most of them will be putting downward pressure on prices.

    Some very good points here, a few of which I never considered. 1 point in Airbnb- does the government really need to do anything for the next while. Demand for Airbnb, especially in Dublin, is pretty much gone short term.

    On MNCs and tax, I think the bigger risk is to future FDI and jobs rather than MNCs leaving (jobs lost due to recession aside).

    Good point on demographics and never really thought of it. Need more options for older people such as retirement villages to provide assisted living options in a community. Opportunity for newer types of property development.


  • #23
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Some very good points here, a few of which I never considered. 1 point in Airbnb- does the government really need to do anything for the next while. Demand for Airbnb, especially in Dublin, is pretty much gone short term.

    On MNCs and tax, I think the bigger risk is to future FDI and jobs rather than MNCs leaving (jobs lost due to recession aside).

    Good point on demographics and never really thought of it. Need more options for older people such as retirement villages to provide assisted living options in a community. Opportunity for newer types of property development.

    On airbnb, yes I agree it is possible the market/covid will sort that problem. I just expected/hoped the new government would strike whilst the iron was hot and kill it off now - don't waste a good crisis as they say.

    On demographics - it is key plank in my long term oversupply theory! I really think the government should be focussing on this - what accommodation do the young and the old need? Use tax incentives to drive development of that, and generous tax incentives to downsize - eg increased CAT thresholds/income tax reductions whatever.

    This will increase supply for those in the middle i.e families with 2.4 children. At the moment all the talk is of building 30k family homes a year for the next decade, which will end up with the wrong types of houses in the wrong places.


  • #24
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    And the combination of demographics and WFH could potentially deliver a lethal blow to Dublin suburban prices in twenty years.


  • #25
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    And the combination of demographics and WFH could potentially deliver a lethal blow to Dublin suburban prices in twenty years.

    Everyone could be back in the office 20 years down the line!


  • #26
    bobbyy gee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭bobbyy gee


    rental property
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/world/europe/airbnb-dublin-rent.html


  • #27
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Everyone could be back in the office 20 years down the line!

    I am not saying nobody will work in an office, but I believe it is wishful thinking to imagine that the same proportion of employees will work 9-5 in an office in 2040 as in 2019.


  • #28
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    schmittel wrote: »
    And the combination of demographics and WFH could potentially deliver a lethal blow to Dublin suburban prices in twenty years.

    All true. It’s amazing that the narrative put out about demographics supporting future housing demand wasn’t looked into deeper over the past 4 years. If the journalists just looked they would have figured out it was mostly based upon continued mass immigration.

    Even if we keep our existing multinationals but find it difficult to attract more due to a combination of WFH and changes to the OECD international tax regime, the only places left for them to work are in the tourism, construction and agricultural sectors.

    These three sectors are under threat from both less tourism due to Covid, a potentially hard Brexit and potentially CAP reform.

    As David McWilliams said a few years ago, without the multinationals, we are Albania without the good weather.

    He also said back in the middle of the Celtic Tiger that we were building houses for the construction workers building them. When the construction stops they will leave and the whole thing will collapse.

    I think a similar thing is happening at the moment.


  • #29
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Everyone could be back in the office 20 years down the line!

    In 20 years time many people will be replaced by robots and pandemic will only make this process quicker !


  • #30
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    If we put all Covid/recession/Brexit things on side

    There will be no problems with cheap labor in Ireland and for that reason country will continue moving.220 milions brazilians will easily replace emigrating irish and polish/lithuanians who will back home.
    Nurses from Philipines/India/Bangladesh will easily replace multinationals because wages in Helth sector are only growing.I was working on estate were about at least 30 houses was bought by people from Bangladesh who work in private health sector.
    Brexit ? Cheap brazilians will bring irish agro to proper level .
    The more imigrants will come the better will be for every sector.
    Renting market will booming the only question is how much brazilians on minimum wage will afford pay for it.
    The building work force cost went even down comparing with 2007 prices ! The irish lads on sites for sweping floors in 2007 was getting from 16 euros per hour ,brazilians do this job today for 11 ! So margin even if new build prices will down will be al right !
    The only questions is how taxation will be changed and how hard pandemic /Brexit will hit Ireland

    At the moment we have good flow of cheap labor which will fill renting market,home buyers from Bangladesh/Philipins who will work in Health sector
    buy houses and builders which make Good proffit using cheap labor.


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  • #31
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    neutral guy wrote: »
    If we put all Covid/recession/Brexit things on side

    There will be no problems with cheap labor in Ireland and for that reason country will continue moving.220 milions brazilians will easily replace emigrating irish and polish/lithuanians who will back home.
    Nurses from Philipines/India/Bangladesh will easily replace multinationals because wages in Helth sector are only growing.I was working on estate were about at least 30 houses was bought by people from Bangladesh who work in private health sector.
    Brexit ? Cheap brazilians will bring irish agro to proper level .
    The more imigrants will come the better will be for every sector.
    Renting market will booming the only question is how much brazilians on minimum wage will afford pay for it.
    The building work force cost went even down comparing with 2007 prices ! The irish lads on sites for sweping floors in 2007 was getting from 16 euros per hour ,brazilians do this job today for 11 ! So margin even if new build prices will down will be al right !
    The only questions is how taxation will be changed and how hard pandemic /Brexit will hit Ireland

    At the moment we have good flow of cheap labor which will fill renting market,home buyers from Bangladesh/Philipins who will work in Health sector
    buy houses and builders which make Good proffit using cheap labor.

    Good points. But I think a lot of the jobs created in Ireland over the past three years In Ireland were either directly or indirectly funded by the state, especially in health care. This was primarily funded from the unforeseen increases in corporation tax which are now under threat. I’d say that many of these jobs were also created in the run up to the last election to boost the chances of FG getting back into power.

    A lot of these “jobs” may be cut back over the next couple of years or at the very least there will be few new additional jobs created by the public sector due to budget constraints. All at exactly the wrong time.

    If I was a property investor hoping that this sector will maintain rental demand over the next five to ten years, I’d be wary.


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