Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj · 29-09-2020 4:53pm

landofthetree wrote: »

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

so while they are saying the economic impact wont be as bad on 1 hand a lot of people will be unemployed. Its like a less severe kick in the nuts... it still hurts a lot

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 4:54pm

PropQueries wrote: »

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 5:03pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

The_Conductor · 29-09-2020 5:10pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 5:13pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

I don't want to discuss Census, as it makes not much sense for what it was looking (one particular night if there was a person staying in property).

GeoDirectory makes more sense, although numbers should not be taken for granted. Even if there is amount of vacant properties, you need to check the trends. As always there will be number of vacant properties in particular for old rural homes.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 5:15pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

My understanding is that the CSO actually stood by their figures. If you have a link to their retraction, I would genuinely be interested in seeing it. However, if you don't want to believe that figure, maybe the 90,000 in the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020 might also be interesting. Either figure is significant.

cnocbui · 29-09-2020 5:21pm

I own a house that has never been on a census and which I don't think the county council even knows exists, apart from maybe it has a property ID and tax is paid on it, but I'm not sure they cross reference that to anything.

So much for any belief that 'official' means diddly squat.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 5:26pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I own a house that has never been on a census and which I don't think the county council even knows exists, apart from maybe it has a property ID and tax is paid on it, but I'm not sure they cross reference that to anything.

So much for any belief that 'official' means diddly squat.

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

PommieBast · 29-09-2020 5:31pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

My thinking also. it's all set up to be smashed. We haven't even had winter yet and another national lockdown could be on the cards.

For me the question is whether I would want to live in Dublin after another 6-9 months of this stuff, regardless of what happens to property prices.

Smouse156 · 29-09-2020 5:40pm

My god Pat Davitt talks some ****e! He whinges that new builds are too expensive and that Help The Brickie should extend to second hand houses...failing to realise that all it will do is increase second hand house prices. Plus how will it HELP THE BRICKIE???

Then he tries to reduce stamp on the most overpriced land in Europe. Even in the photo he’s laughing at people:

Calls for ‘crippling’ stamp duty rates on land to be replaced
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/calls-for-crippling-stamp-duty-rates-on-land-to-be-replaced-39570882.html

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 5:41pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

I believe by some extent in GeoDirectory numbers. What I don't believe that there will be massive decrease in number of vacant properties. There always will be number of vacant properties, as I said in particular for old rural properties.
Even now there are hundreds of properties below 50K for sale. Not much interest.

cnocbui · 29-09-2020 5:49pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

A lot - an awful lot - would depend on how GeoDirectory compiled their data set. Such as how they determined if a building was a habitable house or a shed. The Eircode finder seems to use the exact same data set, near as I can tell, and it can't give an Eircode for the house I mentioned, so I think it's reasonable to suppose their methodology isn't that sound.

The readership of this thread is tiny on a national scale, so what are the chances one poster in a tiny sample of the population can find a demonstrable error in the data set? So out of the whole population it could well be they are off by thousands.

By the way, the house in question is on the map, so i suspect they are going off OS data sets and are somehow trying to ascribe use by guestimation, and not physically visiting every building in Ireland and ascertaining what it's true nature and condition is.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 5:53pm

cnocbui wrote: »

A lot - an awful lot - would depend on how GeoDirectory compiled their data set. Such as how they determined if a building was a habitable house or a shed. The Eircode finder seems to use the exact same data set, near as I can tell, and it can't give an Eircode for the house I mentioned, so I think it's reasonable to suppose their methodology isn't that sound.

The readership of this thread is tiny on a national scale, so what are the chances one poster in a tiny sample of the population can find a demonstrable error in the data set? So out of the whole population it could well be they are off by thousands.

By the way, the house in question is on the map, so i suspect they are going off OS data sets and are somehow trying to ascribe use by guestimation, and not physically visiting every building in Ireland and ascertaining what it's true nature and condition is.

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

I would probably be more skeptical as well if I didn't see the huge number of vacant homes and apartment in South Dublin, where I live or in rural areas when I leave Dublin. That's why I'm inclined to believe both figures. They appear to match what I've been seeing on the ground over the past number of years.

cnocbui · 29-09-2020 5:58pm

PropQueries wrote: »

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

Ah. An post never delivered to the house, it was always a matter of collecting mail from the post office. No census enumerators have ever visited the house, I suspect, as it's not visible from a road and there's a locked gate.

The_Conductor · 29-09-2020 5:59pm

PropQueries wrote: »

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

That might account for why the Geodirectory survey had over 70k fewer vacant properties than the census did- however, it doesn't account for the manner in which the local authorities visited properties listed as vacant (including some 60k which were also vacant in 2011) and found them not to be vacant at all.

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 6:08pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

That might account for why the Geodirectory survey had over 70k fewer vacant properties than the census did- however, it doesn't account for the manner in which the local authorities visited properties listed as vacant (including some 60k which were also vacant in 2011) and found them not to be vacant at all.

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

If it's so easy to find on Google, please find it and post the link as I would be very interested. But, this is my memory of the situation at that time.

There was uproar about the number of vacant houses so Minister Murphy tried to get the CSO to retract. They refused. Then he said he got a local council to do a 'drive-by' of one of the estates that were down as vacant in the Census. Given that this drive-by was completed several months or more than a year after the Census date, it's entirely possible they were occupied between the Census date and when the 'drive-by' took place, which may have been up to year or more later.

But, the CSO stood by their vacant homes figures as at April 2016 and never retracted from my understanding. They just all kept quite and hoped the issue would go away.

cnocbui · 29-09-2020 6:14pm

Admitting to mistakes or wrongdoing is not part of the Irish national psyche, either at an individual or organisational level.

brisan · 29-09-2020 6:18pm

three putt wrote: »

What source of data would you rely on for the Irish property market?
Using this trusted source, what does the data say about the sales prices in the Irish housing market for 2020?

When it comes to the Irish property market I do not trust anybody but myself
The Irish have a weird fascination with property (myself included ) and every writer has an agenda or is paid to write an agenda .
Do you honestly think Daft or MyHome are going to publish something that frightens the property market and the Vendors that make them money

Bubbaclaus · 29-09-2020 6:20pm

landofthetree wrote: »

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

And 7% jobs growth estimated in 2021, a pessimistic figure which assumes no deal Brexit.

During the financial crisis we were losing jobs for years and sliding deeper into the abyss. Not the case currently.

hometruths · 29-09-2020 6:26pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

Has it really been demonstrated to be patently false?

You say Fingal "got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators - and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant."

Far from saying mea culpa, the CSO put out statement saying

As part of this work, they recorded vacant dwellings in their area, using detailed methodology and definitions applied consistently over the past three consecutive Censuses. The CSO is confident that it's vacant dwelling figures are a robust point-in-time record around the 24th April 2016.
In relation to the recent sample survey work on vacant dwellings conducted by Fingal County Council, the CSO did not provide a list of vacant dwellings to the Council as the CSO only ever disseminates aggregate statistics.

So a) they defended their methodology robustly and b) they did not give Fingal details of the vacant properties as if often claimed, as above.

They then did further supplementary analysis of the vacancy figures and once again reaffirmed they stood over their data.

I really cannot see how people are so quick to rubbish the CSO who's very raison d'etre is accuracy in favour of Fingal County Council Vacant Housing Dept whose very raison d'etre is reporting as low a number of vacant houses.

And although this has come up time and time again on here, nobody has yet pointed any credible analysis to suggest Fingal's figures are any more accurate than the CSOs.

As far as I can see it remans a case of he said, she said, who do you believe? The CSO or Fingal County Council.

It is not in the realms of conspiracy theory to believe the CSO!!!

Indeed the CSO also said:

The CSO is in the process of contacting Fingal County Council to seek information on a number of issues, including the methodology and definitions applied by the council in compiling their numbers

But I cannot find any info on whether or not Fingal shared their methodology other than

A desk-top study to “drill into the figures” identified 361 potentially vacant dwellings.

“Pilot inspections in two areas of the county were carried out, with 74 [of the 361 units] inspected, resulting in 13 units identified as actually vacant.”

So they rubbished the CSO after visiting 74 properties?

The_Conductor wrote: »

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

Sure it is easy to find the detail of the story. What is far less easy to find is any impartial evidence that the CSO got it wrong.

Can you link to whatever you have seen that proves the census figures to be "patently false"?

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 6:55pm

Property report claims thousands of tech workers left Dublin during pandemic

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html

Looks like Davy's were caught making up stuff to spook the rental market, how many more dirty tricks are going on ?

This is actually hilarious what a bunch of snakes.....

something funny going on here..... looks like Davys are extremely worried to come up with this type of underhanded dirty move

"Davy declined to respond to questions about the report, which was circulated widely among its clients."

awec · 29-09-2020 7:55pm

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been a mass exodus of MNC workers out of Ireland?

The Davy report says that the figures come from “anecdotal” sources.

The article is fairly comprehensive in rubbishing the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want.

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 7:59pm

awec wrote: »

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been an exodus of workers out of Ireland?

ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

awec · 29-09-2020 8:01pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

The report was clearly nonsense but they are not alone in using their imagination.

They weren't the only ones to be suckered by this anecdotal stuff, the claim that MNC workers can just go wherever they want, and have already left en-masse, has been posted numerous times on this very forum as if it were fact.

MacronvFrugals · 29-09-2020 8:07pm

Google tells workers to return to country where they are employed

“have been asked to return by year end, partly due to tax and legal reasons”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

Hubertj · 29-09-2020 8:07pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Property report claims thousands of tech workers left Dublin during pandemic

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html

Looks like Davy's were caught making up stuff to spook the rental market, how many more dirty tricks are going on ?

This is actually hilarious what a bunch of snakes.....

something funny going on here..... looks like Davys are extremely worried to come up with this type of underhanded dirty move

"Davy declined to respond to questions about the report, which was circulated widely among its clients."

a couple of my nextdoor neighbours work in google. they went home to southern europe for a few months.
LinkedIn were advised they could leave Ireland for maximum 6 months.
I'd imagine some left Dublin and rented elsehwere to take advantage of cheaper rent for a year.

MacronvFrugals · 29-09-2020 8:08pm

Hubertj wrote: »

a couple of my nextdoor neighbours work in google. they went home to southern europe for a few months.
LinkedIn were advised they could leave Ireland for maximum 6 months.
I'd imagine some left Dublin and rented elsehwere to take advantage of cheaper rent for a year.

Google have told workers come back by the end of the year over tax issues.

hometruths · 29-09-2020 8:14pm

awec wrote: »

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been a mass exodus of MNC workers out of Ireland?

The article is fairly comprehensive in rubbishing the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want.

And fairly comprehensive in confirming the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want in Ireland.

The tech giant has a ‘flexible working’ policy that allows staff to work outside the office but within Ireland.

Even if they can't walk for a pint

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 8:18pm

ah yeah it would make sense for people working from home until late 2021 to move elsewhere to get cheaper rent etc but the fact that Davy is plucking numbers out of the air and using them factually "which was circulated widely
among its clients" is very much a sign of desperation imo.

We must be in the denial stage of a recession....

awec · 29-09-2020 8:21pm

schmittel wrote: »

And fairly comprehensive in confirming the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want in Ireland.

Even if they can't walk for a pint

They hardly needed confirmed?

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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