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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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Comments

  • #1802
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,897 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I've worked in multiple large tech MNCs and known quite a bit about the HR departments operations. Anyone cold calling a company to ask questions as to if someone is employed, and in what role, would get a very polite "we can't discuss personal information" answer, and a slightly ruder one if they persisted. Theres absolutely no way any decently sized tech firm is giving employment information to a stranger over the phone (or internet), it would expose them to all sorts of expensive data confidentiality issues/liabilities.


  • #1803
    rks
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭rks


    ^^ Exactly. More likely the call wont even get past the reception if you dont know who you want to talk to HR. One of the companies that I worked for refused to share information to an embassy about their own citizens and they were just looking for email ids. Forget about an individual calling to get some information.


  • #1804
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I read it more along the lines of he has cultivated a relationship with specific individuals in one or two companies- and rewards good leads from his contacts with gift cards. I didn't read it as being formally endorsed by the companies- rather an informal arrangement he has. Perhaps I misunderstood?




    So one or two companies hr departments somehow keep him in tenants at just the right time every time he needs one, for a voucher. All the other landlords must be kicking themselves that they havent hit on those two hr departments.

    Somehow I think there are porkies going around here.


  • #1805
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I read it more along the lines of he has cultivated a relationship with specific individuals in one or two companies- and rewards good leads from his contacts with gift cards. I didn't read it as being formally endorsed by the companies- rather an informal arrangement he has. Perhaps I misunderstood?

    Must be some serious voucher to put all future employment opportunities at risk if you're caught. None of that one4all sh1te.


  • #1806
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    Rents flatline, tenancies down say RTB.

    https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1168186/


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  • #1807
    bluelamp
    Registered Users Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    Rents flatline, tenancies down say RTB.

    https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1168186/

    1.5% Drop in Dublin. I'd say Dublin city center rents in particular will take a beating over the next 6 months.

    Less international students, less general immigration, Irish students studying from home, people working from home, less tourist demand for holiday lettings, a lot of hospitality & tourism workers temporarily unemployed.

    A big draw for young people to city center living, is the social aspects, nightlife / concerts etc. All gone for now.


  • #1808
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    Rents flatline, tenancies down say RTB.

    https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1168186/

    Phrased as "lowest pace of growth" while IT went with "Rise in cost of renting slows" https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/rise-in-cost-of-renting-slows-as-impact-of-covid-19-begins-to-hit-1.4367591

    Tells you who butters their bread to phrase it like that. Rents falling even substantially are an excellent thing as we can see from the catastrophic housing situation in the country the past few years.

    While 1.5% declines in Dublin in a quarter seems quite substantial, it is only based on tenancies registered to the end of June. We know that supply is up at least 260% since March on Daft (and likely to continue to climb given the WFH environment, restrictions on travel and pausing of the economic recovery) so the picture of the rental market crash is not visible with this 1.5% figure - you could be forgiven for anticipating they'll only drop 6% by spring 2021 but that does not look likely at all.


  • #1809
    DubCount
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭DubCount


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    Rents flatline, tenancies down say RTB.

    https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1168186/

    Interesting that they dont put a number on the "sizeable" reduction in tenancies. This could be a disaster if any kind of demand re-emerges.


  • #1810
    Mr Hindley
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    I've been watching the rentals market in south Dublin for a couple of months now, and there's no question that asking prices for rentals are starting to drop quite noticeably. Just in the last week, I'm seeing nice 2-bed houses in areas like Blackrock or Booterstown show up within my price range which I would never have seen a few weeks ago. However, for the fancy apartments in places like Sandyford, those prices are at least on the surface staying stubbornly high.

    I've seen somewhere decent that I'm tempted to offer on, but am now wondering if a month from now we could be looking at quite a different picture of what I could get for my money... There's certainly still demand there, though, the good places that have dropped their prices are going almost instantly.


  • #1811
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Mr Hindley wrote: »

    I've seen somewhere decent that I'm tempted to offer on, but am now wondering if a month from now we could be looking at quite a different picture of what I could get for my money... There's certainly still demand there, though, the good places that have dropped their prices are going almost instantly.

    Yes I have noticed similar, places which are 10-15% below March levels go quick enough. Those that have not dropped their price are still sitting there.


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  • #1812
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 13,999 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    So, google announced today that all employees who have left the country their job is based in, must return to that country before year end. 30% of Google’s Irish staff are wfh in other countries. This is being done due to tax/payroll implications and it is expected that all mnc’s/fintech companies will follow suit. This will effect the rental market and increase demand.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674%3fmode=amp


  • #1813
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    So, google announced today that all employees who have left the country their job is based in, must return to that country before year end. 30% of Google’s Irish staff are wfh in other countries. This is being done due to tax/payroll implications and it is expected that all mnc’s/fintech companies will follow suit. This will effect the rental market and increase demand.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674%3fmode=amp

    Big news and not unexpected.


  • #1814
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Big news and not unexpected.

    Completely expected.
    Once the workers become tax resident in other EU (or 3rd) countries- there is a legal onus on the company to establish a presence there and they then generate taxable income in that country- and almost certainly not at a corporation tax rate of 12.5%

    Google were never going to allow this to happen..........

    Personally aware of several nominally Irish Google staff working on Mediterranean islands, Portugal, Mainland Spain and in Eastern Europe.


  • #1815
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Property report claims thousands of tech workers left Dublin during pandemic

    https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html


    Looks like Davy's were caught making up stuff to spook the rental market, how many more dirty tricks are going on ?

    This is actually hilarious what a bunch of snakes.....

    something funny going on here..... looks like Davys are extremely worried to come up with this type of underhanded dirty move

    "Davy declined to respond to questions about the report, which was circulated widely among its clients."
    awec wrote: »
    Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been a mass exodus of MNC workers out of Ireland? :)



    The article is fairly comprehensive in rubbishing the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want.
    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

    Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.
    awec wrote: »
    The report was clearly nonsense but they are not alone in using their imagination. :)

    They weren't the only ones to be suckered by this anecdotal stuff, the claim that MNC workers can just go wherever they want, and have already left en-masse, has been posted numerous times on this very forum as if it were fact.

    And yet we have this
    Someone is wrong somewhere


  • #1816
    Lux23
    Registered Users Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭Lux23


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Big news and not unexpected.

    Yea, but...

    Alphabet has advised workers company wide to return to the country where they are employed by the end of the year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

    I don't see them being able to enforce that while Dublin remains a mess and it would need to be managed on a phased basis. Given that this came out of Davy, I would guess those who benefit from the huge rents in Dublin are ****ting themselves and coming out with **** like this to manage their clients' jitters.


  • #1817
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Davy are significantly exposed to Irish property with their office and retail portfolio. It only collected 77% of the rent in its portfolio in Q2, which of course was only two and a half months of lockdown and only went to the end of June. But we obviously still have a lot of restrictions so their Q3 report will be interesting.

    https://www.davy.ie/corporate-institutional/real-estate/dipf


  • #1818
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Completely expected.
    Once the workers become tax resident in other EU (or 3rd) countries- there is a legal onus on the company to establish a presence there and they then generate taxable income in that country- and almost certainly not at a corporation tax rate of 12.5%

    Google were never going to allow this to happen..........

    Personally aware of several nominally Irish Google staff working on Mediterranean islands, Portugal, Mainland Spain and in Eastern Europe.

    Can’t they just say they’re back and wfh. Aka fly in and fly back out again


  • #1819
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,342 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Lux23 wrote: »
    Yea, but...

    Alphabet has advised workers company wide to return to the country where they are employed by the end of the year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

    I don't see them being able to enforce that while Dublin remains a mess and it would need to be managed on a phased basis. Given that this came out of Davy, I would guess those who benefit from the huge rents in Dublin are ****ting themselves and coming out with **** like this to manage their clients' jitters.

    They aren't forcing people back to the office, or even to Dublin.

    They are saying you need to be in Ireland.


  • #1820
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 13,999 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    awec wrote: »
    They aren't forcing people back to the office, or even to Dublin.

    They are saying you need to be in Ireland.


    It was being discussed on business section of The Last Word this evening. The announcement was being reported by Bloomberg and the policy applies to Google employees worldwide, not just Ireland so I’m not sure why anyone thinks Davy would be responsible for the report. According to Today FM, you are correct, it is Ireland as distinct from Dublin, but the expectation is the employees will return to close proximity to bases.


  • #1821
    global23214124
    Registered Users Posts: 268 ✭✭global23214124


    The tech company I work for have announced the same thing that all people that have gone back to their home country/different country need to be back in Ireland by Jan 1st. I don't see it happening to be honest with a 2nd wave. People will jump ship.


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  • #1822
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    global23214124 wrote: »
    The tech company I work for have announced the same thing that all people that have gone back to their home country/different country need to be back in Ireland by Jan 1st. I don't see it happening to be honest with a 2nd wave. People will jump ship.

    As a matter of interest, as it would have been a significant contributing factor to the increased demand for rentals the past few years, what is your company like on the hiring front the last 6 months for its Dublin office?


  • #1823
    global23214124
    Registered Users Posts: 268 ✭✭global23214124


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, as it would have been a significant contributing factor to the increased demand for rentals the past few years, what is your company like on the hiring front the last 6 months for its Dublin office?

    Managerial + Director roles are still open but the lower level jobs(entry -> pre managerial) have been put on hold from what I can see. No layoffs or anything so far with people being shifted around if there isn't much going on.


  • #1824
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    global23214124 wrote: »
    Managerial + Director roles are still open but the lower level jobs(entry -> pre managerial) have been put on hold from what I can see. No layoffs or anything so far with people being shifted around if there isn't much going on.

    I work in finance and our place has hired some entry level jobs the last few months as well as filled gaps left from departures at more senior roles. However, the past life in a law firm has given me contacts who have said that support staff have been cut, trainees not likely to be kept on after the end of the year, partner's equity cut, wage freezes and no bonuses paid across the board. Aircraft leasing, a fairly lucrative area, from what I've heard is in a terribly uncertain and worryingly quiet state. I don't have much insight into accountancy firms unfortunately, which would be one of the other booming areas pre-Covid along with finance, tech and law.


  • #1825
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    I work in finance and our place has hired some entry level jobs the last few months as well as filled gaps left from departures at more senior roles. However, the past life in a law firm has given me contacts who have said that support staff have been cut, trainees not likely to be kept on after the end of the year, partner's equity cut, wage freezes and no bonuses paid across the board. Aircraft leasing, a fairly lucrative area, from what I've heard is in a terribly uncertain and worryingly quiet state. I don't have much insight into accountancy firms unfortunately, which would be one of the other booming areas pre-Covid along with finance, tech and law.

    Different sectors will be effected differently as some have seen growth while others will have shrunk significantly. So I think you will see different recruitment impacts by sector but I would expect that most will introduce a hiring freeze with the exception of key roles.

    They will probably already have drawn up plans that in the event covid starts to impact there business (if it has not already) they will reduce the workforce and cut costs. This will not be an overnight change as it takes time but you can guarantee that it is already in the pipeline for certain sectors. The financial sector will be interesting as I can see Banks cutting costs however the funds industry and all the services that are provided to it may be ok as long as the financial markets or the CRE market don't collapse.


  • #1826
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Davy are significantly exposed to Irish property with their office and retail portfolio. It only collected 77% of the rent in its portfolio in Q2, which of course was only two and a half months of lockdown and only went to the end of June. But we obviously still have a lot of restrictions so their Q3 report will be interesting.

    https://www.davy.ie/corporate-institutional/real-estate/dipf

    Davy seems to own some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge, which is to become Facebook's new campus so it would seem natural for them, after Google pulled out of the massive lease at the Sorting Office, to try to talk up the big tech boots on the ground in Dublin!


  • #1827
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 13,999 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Davy seems to own some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge, which is to become Facebook's new campus so it would seem natural for them, after Google pulled out of the massive lease at the Sorting Office, to try to talk up the big tech boots on the ground in Dublin!

    Should we be surprised by this?

    Most news outlets are reporting Google’s announcement, it was expected due to payroll/legal implications, why are you focusing on Davy?


  • #1828
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Yes they will want to make sure that investors redemption's are kept to a minimum so will talk up the rental market.

    For a long time the two things that have held Dublin back are office space and accommodation the whole WFH model changes this significantly but there will always be a demand in Dublin as it short on supply.


  • #1829
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Should we be surprised by this?

    Most news outlets are reporting Google’s announcement, it was expected due to payroll/legal implications, why are you focusing on Davy?

    Go back a few pages and you'll see the story. Here it is for ease of reference:

    https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html


  • #1830
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Yes they will want to make sure that investors redemption's are kept to a minimum so will talk up the rental market.

    For a long time the two things that have held Dublin back are office space and accommodation the whole WFH model changes this significantly but there will always be a demand in Dublin as it short on supply.

    The office market peaked in 2018 and that is why a significant number of apartment planning permissions have been granted in the last year. This supply will start to show in the next year onwards, delayed somewhat but not stopped due to covid.


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  • #1831
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Dav010 wrote: »
    So, google announced today that all employees who have left the country their job is based in, must return to that country before year end. 30% of Google’s Irish staff are wfh in other countries. This is being done due to tax/payroll implications and it is expected that all mnc’s/fintech companies will follow suit. This will effect the rental market and increase demand.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674%3fmode=amp




    This is indeed what my company are doing with the people who left the country to work from their home countries during pandemic.
    We have all been informed that we have to be Ireland resident to continue working for the company.
    There are grants and tax breaks attached to each staff member working in Ireland. If they arent resident in Ireland no grant or tax break.
    This I didnt know before.


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