Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

lolie · 21-12-2010 12:23am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

GFS 18z starts to adjust to the reality of the blocking surface high and shows a cold, perhaps even frigid, southeast flow hanging in very stubbornly while the mild sector to the west fritters away continually and extends to an occlusion. This is the classic split non-breakdown scenario where one low heads north and drags only slight warming towards Iceland, while the more energetic portion reforms southwest of Ireland and heads for south of France. I mean,

wouldn't you?

:cool:

i take it your not agreein with met eire and their 9 r 10 degrees saturday

thetonynator · 21-12-2010 12:33am

lolie wrote: »

i take it your not agreein with met eire and their 9 r 10 degrees saturday

i don't think anyones agreeing with them at the moment, except a few people who aren't forecasters but are very hopeful. . . Cough cough mike65 cough cough. :P

Musicman2000 · 21-12-2010 12:33am

lolie wrote: »

i take it your not agreein with met eire and their 9 r 10 degrees saturday

When i saw them temps i laughed to myself and said not a hope:)

mike65 · 21-12-2010 12:37am

thetonynator wrote: »

so we've noticed. . . Isn't this better than the quays in waterford flooding every few weeks though?

We have a barrier now

and it was never every few weeks. It was high spring tide plus low pressure and a Southern gale that caused the flooding.

thetonynator · 21-12-2010 12:42am

mike65 wrote: »

We have a barrier now and it was never every few weeks. It was high spring tide plus low pressure and a Southern gale that caused the flooding.

nice barrier! I may have exaggerated slightly to make people feel like snow is a good thing! I have to say i always found the signs saying: this car park will flood at: 18.00 quite funny!

desolate sun · 21-12-2010 10:57am

desolate sun wrote: »

Also, forgive me if I'm wrong, but is MT Cranium the guy in this article:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/severe-weather-alert-ireland-and-uk.html

Is MT Cranium, Peter O'Donnell?

pistolpetes11 · 21-12-2010 10:58am

desolate sun wrote: »

Is MT Cranium, Peter O'Donnell?

Yep ,

Mark is Wolfe

Fergal is Su

desolate sun · 21-12-2010 11:09am

But he predicted a snowmaggedon in that article that we didnt get? I'm not having a go but I feel like an eejit, warning my friends we'd get crazy weather

glimmerman123 · 21-12-2010 4:18pm

Ger Flemming was just on RTE News and said it will stay very cold up to and including Christmas Eve with much milder weather expected to spread up over the country Christmas day even though their five day charts show 0c on Christmas day and 5c on St.Stephens day. I don't know what to believe from Met Eireann at this stage. The 10c they predicted for Christmas day didn't last long.

pistolpetes11 · 21-12-2010 6:43pm

desolate sun wrote: »

But he predicted a snowmaggedon in that article that we didnt get? I'm not having a go but I feel like an eejit, warning my friends we'd get crazy weather

The track of the system changed , nothing you can do about that , one of them things in weather.

The models were all over the place also , which even showed today with the Met yesterday telling us that we were due 5-10c on xmas day and today saying 0c

K-9 · 22-12-2010 12:00am

desolate sun wrote: »

But he predicted a snowmaggedon in that article that we didnt get? I'm not having a go but I feel like an eejit, warning my friends we'd get crazy weather

It was snowmaggedon for the North, NW and a good bit of the West.

Pangea · 22-12-2010 1:09am

This thread has gotten very quiet, is there any interesting charts for the Christmas week floating around?

thetonynator · 22-12-2010 1:11am

Pangea wrote: »

This thread has gotten very quiet, is there any interesting charts for the Christmas week floating around?

all anyone seems to know is that the breakdown keeps being pushed back with nearly every run. Being in donegal, you probably won't see any breakdown til the new year!

cherryghost · 22-12-2010 1:25am

Well long term GFS looks unholy for the New Years, again not much can be said about it for the time being

delw · 22-12-2010 3:00am

desolate sun wrote: »

But he predicted a snowmaggedon in that article that we didnt get? I'm not having a go but I feel like an eejit, warning my friends we'd get crazy weather

well i gave a warning to my friends at half 3, 4 o clock that a monster was en route,a river of snow they called it on some radio stations but by half 5 winds changed to raise temps &give rain to places that got massive snow all day,i had to try explain why, which i found hard with out going on about wind direction ect.. which they didnt give a **** about

Pangea · 22-12-2010 12:12pm

Well it Looks like we are gona see some warmer temeratures now by the looks of things from MTs. forecast.
But dare I say it are we looking at a third cold spell towards the new year?

snaps · 22-12-2010 1:22pm

Im not looking forward to the rain when it comes, as it will come suddenly and will freeze on impact. The ground and air is so cold here, it will be strange to see how it will rain.

Big Daddy Cool · 22-12-2010 1:34pm

i really hope MT's forecast of a 3rd cold spell is like the 40cm of snow he forecast for us in meath last week, ie, it doesnt happen as i'm going to the west for new years and the only thing getting plastered over there is me

and not snow

nacho libre · 22-12-2010 2:19pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i really hope MT's forecast of a 3rd cold spell is like the 40cm of snow he forecast for us in meath last week, ie, it doesnt happen as i'm going to the west for new years and the only thing getting plastered over there is me and not snow

just for that piece of blasphemy, i hope there is a two-three day snowstorm where you'll be, and you end up being stuck in the pub for a week.

Mental Mickey · 22-12-2010 2:22pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i really hope MT's forecast of a 3rd cold spell is like the 40cm of snow he forecast for us in meath last week, ie, it doesnt happen as i'm going to the west for new years and the only thing getting plastered over there is me and not snow

When has this been forecast for?

Pangea · 22-12-2010 2:25pm

MET uks outlook seems to be gearing more towards colder conditions now for January.

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 5 Jan 2011:

Western and southwestern parts of the UK are likely to be often rather cloudy next week with some snow inland and a mixture of rain, sleet and snow in coastal areas. Towards the end of the first week snow may become more confined to hills. Further east and northeast it is likely to be drier with some sunshine at times, although isolated outbreaks of snow cannot be ruled out later. It will be windy at times, particularly in the north and west where there is a risk of gales at first. Temperatures are expected to remain cold or very cold for most, but it may be a little less cold in the west and southwest at times. Risk of widespread, locally severe frost continuing, particularly to the north and east.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 22 Dec 2010

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jan 2011 to Wednesday 19 Jan 2011:

Temperatures look likely to remain generally on the cold side, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK. Western parts may see temperatures reaching close to average values at times. Conditions look to settle down for many areas, with precipitation amounts generally below average and with plenty of sunshine for some. Given the relatively settled setup, hard or severe overnight frosts may become an issue, along with the risk freezing fog which is likely to be slow to clear at times.

Updated: 1153 on Wed 22 Dec 2010

munsterlegend · 22-12-2010 2:53pm

Pangea wrote: »

MET uks outlook seems to be gearing more towards colder conditions now for January.

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 5 Jan 2011:

Western and southwestern parts of the UK are likely to be often rather cloudy next week with some snow inland and a mixture of rain, sleet and snow in coastal areas. Towards the end of the first week snow may become more confined to hills. Further east and northeast it is likely to be drier with some sunshine at times, although isolated outbreaks of snow cannot be ruled out later. It will be windy at times, particularly in the north and west where there is a risk of gales at first. Temperatures are expected to remain cold or very cold for most, but it may be a little less cold in the west and southwest at times. Risk of widespread, locally severe frost continuing, particularly to the north and east.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 22 Dec 2010

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jan 2011 to Wednesday 19 Jan 2011:

Temperatures look likely to remain generally on the cold side, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK. Western parts may see temperatures reaching close to average values at times. Conditions look to settle down for many areas, with precipitation amounts generally below average and with plenty of sunshine for some. Given the relatively settled setup, hard or severe overnight frosts may become an issue, along with the risk freezing fog which is likely to be slow to clear at times.

Updated: 1153 on Wed 22 Dec 2010

all depends on how far east the atlantic front makes it..should be interesting weather watching over the weekend. very likely parts of ireland will get snow.

nacho libre · 22-12-2010 3:28pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

all depends on how far east the atlantic front makes it..should be interesting weather watching over the weekend. very likely parts of ireland will get snow.

yes indeedy. it would be super if the entrenched cold led to the front stalling and giving copious amounts of snow over parts of Ireland before just fizzling out. it's possible.

thetonynator · 22-12-2010 5:39pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yes indeedy. it would be super if the entrenched cold led to the front stalling and giving copious amounts of snow over parts of Ireland before just fizzling out. it's possible.

hopefully stalling over the parts that haven't any decent snow yet. :P

Bullseye1 · 22-12-2010 5:48pm

Let it rain let it ran let rain..... Flying away on 27th.

Bog Butter · 22-12-2010 6:14pm

ME:

ST STEPHEN'S DAY/SUNDAY: Rain and strong southerly winds will spread from the southwest through the day, falling as snow or freezing rain in many places. Temperatures will start to increase with maxima of 3 to 7 degrees.

I have been checking Met Eireann's website every day during this cold spell. They had being using the word 'thaw' on their website in reference to St. Stephen's day but now they are not using that word. Is there any significance in this? Is this rise in temperature only temporary I wonder?

munsterlegend · 22-12-2010 6:21pm

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Let it rain let it ran let rain..... Flying away on 27th.

it may well do but the Uk met office don't seem to think this atlantic air will make it too far east. also met eireann have been backtracking with their forecast earlier in the week.

Pangea · 22-12-2010 6:36pm

Skys long range weather forecast shows the atlantic influence , By long range they mean till St.Stephens day

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/video/Weather/Long-range-Weather-Forecast-In-Video/Video/200806315009839?lpos=Weather_3&lid=VIDEO_56784_Long-range+Forecast&videoCategory=Weather

desolate sun · 22-12-2010 7:26pm

K-9 wrote: »

It was snowmaggedon for the North, NW and a good bit of the West.

I'm living in the North West and I got snow but not snowmageddon. Snowmageddon would be blizzards and x foot drifts?

I'm not complaining either. I am surrounded by winter wonderland. And people are able to walk on the snow, not like the ice. So it's good to see people getting out and about. I feel bad for people in airports but hopefully the backlog will be cleared soon.

TheMilkyPirate · 22-12-2010 7:58pm

Wrong thread.

Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

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