Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 19-10-2020 7:28am

Monday, 19 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal, heaviest in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average only 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be milder with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy in a few locations, mostly over western counties. Amounts will vary from 5-10 mm east, to 15-25 mm west. Winds will be moderate southeast and will increase to strong overnight. Highs 14 to 16 C (mildest values inland south).

TONIGHT will be overcast and windy with heavy rain moving into Munster and spreading through most other regions before morning, possibly not reaching parts of Ulster until Tuesday. Winds will increase to southeast 50-80 km/hr for most areas, and 80-110 km/hr on the south coast. Temperatures steady near 12 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm. Some flooding problems may begin during the later overnight hours (most likely in parts of west Munster and southwest Connacht).

TUESDAY will be breezy and mild with further showery rainfalls of 5-15 mm. Winds will veer to southwest 50-80 km/hr then ease gradually as the low reaches Connacht and weakens while continuing to track northeastward. Highs of 13 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers or outbreaks of light rain, with winds veering around to more of a north to northeast direction as a secondary low tracks further south towards Britain. Rainfalls in Ireland should remain moderate with the heavier rain now into parts of Britain. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will bring some sunny intervals and only isolated showers in a lighter wind regime, lows near 3 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY will become quite breezy and milder with intervals of rain in the morning, some clear intervals mid-day, and a rather stormy finish to the day as a stronger low develops and hits the northwest by early Saturday morning. Winds will likely increase overnight to southwest 70-110 km/hr and may be even stronger on exposed Atlantic coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

The further outlook is very unsettled. It looks as though "Epsilon" will form near Bermuda in the next two days and meander west, north and northeast for several days while this week unfolds, then as a powerful Atlantic low the remnants will head towards Iceland inducing a very strong southwest flow by middle of next week. Within that flow a secondary low could easily form and cause problems near Ireland's west coast, details may not be too clear for several days as first we need to get Epsilon into action so the models have something more concrete to process.

Here's how I think the winter might unfold, at least there is some hope for winter weather enthusiasts, mainly in late January into February and early March ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

My local weather on Sunday was foggy and cool after a dumping of wet snow in the early morning hours; as this snow melted, the air became quite saturated under a low cloud deck and visibility dropped to about 100 meters. The temperatures were gradually edging upward but held down to about 8 C so far, with somewhat milder air expected to break through for a day or two.

M.T. Cranium · 20-10-2020 7:22am

Tuesday, 20 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 October 2020

-- With some of the heavy rain already recorded, for this seven days rainfall will be closer to normal amounts.
-- Temperatures will be around 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... A band of heavy rain will move gradually north, and last about 4-6 hours at various locations, arriving by later this morning in the midlands and central Leinster, to early afternoon across the north. 15 to 30 mm rainfalls can be expected. Winds southeast 50-80 km/hr veering south to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr (at least in southern counties, not as windy further north as the storm weakens gradually all day). Highs 13 to 16 C. There may be a more pleasant afternoon interval for parts of Munster where it's currently raining, with some mild sunny intervals after the rain ends there. That regime is not likely to push much further north as the low weakens and its component parts slow down towards evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become more intermittent where it continues at all, 5 to 10 mm in some places. Fog will become rather widespread before dawn. Lows 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intermittent light rain, and somewhat cooler, highs near 12 C. Winds will become more variable and trend to northerly later in the day with a moderate north wind by afternoon on western coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Extensive morning mist or fog, then sunny intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, occasional light rain, with a clearing trend mid-day and afternoon, winds southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm expected ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Occasional showers, winds moderating and not quite as mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The following week is likely to be unsettled, and possibly quite stormy at times. Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed southeast of Bermuda, and will be near Bermuda by this weekend. After that, model guidance is all over the north Atlantic with the strong remnant low, Ireland can be considered as likely as anywhere else for Epsilon's final stages, and most guidance suggests that a second strong low will form in the wake of Epsilon, wherever it does eventually track, and follow along somewhat further south, so there's some chance of a 2-3 day interval of quite disturbed weather just before the end of the month. Also the forward speed of Epsilon next week is in some doubt and it could get very windy as soon as Tuesday or possibly not until closer to end of the week, if the remnant low does come calling.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and drizzly with a low cloud ceiling giving the appearance of fog and mist at times. The high was about 9 or 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2020 7:09am

Wednesday, 21 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 October

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, mainly due to milder nights, daytime highs won't be that far from seasonal normals.
-- Rainfall will be around normal values for late October, as we approach the wettest portion of the year.
-- Sunshine will be quite limited, but may manage to get as high as 75 per cent of normal since normal is now only around 3 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in eastern and southern counties, overcast in the north and west where a little more light rain is likely, as the last dying stages of the low are felt before it moves away towards Scotland. Winds will become moderate northerly as they already have done along the west coast, but it may not be until mid-afternoon that the winds shift on the east coast which could have a reasonably pleasant autumn day in the decaying circulation around the previously strong low. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and misty, with fog patches thickening towards morning, lows 1 to 4 C.

THURSDAY will start out with extensive fog, mist and low cloud, then some sunny breaks are likely; only patchy drizzle with slight accumulations, and a dry afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy to windy from early morning on, and some rain will fall around the late overnight hours, only around 2-4 mm for most, in moderate southwest winds. Some clearing will follow around mid-day, winds continuing brisk west to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will bring stronger winds that may reach 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Some rain will be falling at most times during the day and in a few places it may be briefly heavy with thundery squalls possible in a fairly active cold front expected mid-day or afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C (to 16 C inland southeast).

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler with occasional rain, highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for unsettled weather to continue and it may in fact become quite stormy, as the remnant low of Epsilon seems increasingly likely to be near Ireland by about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Right now, it has become a hurricane southeast of Bermuda and will take its time moving through that region towards southeast Newfoundland by about Sunday night, then as an extratropical low it will be heading east and swerving to the north just to the west of the Atlantic coasts of Ireland, bringing strong southerly winds and heavy rainfalls. As the low loops around, further development of low pressure in its wake could lead to more stormy weather later in the week.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with the sun sometimes visible through both cloud layers and mist left over from dense fog in the early hours. Although it was a bit milder in general, all this cloud and mist prevented temperatures from getting up very far, to around 10 C. If you have clear skies for any part of this evening, have a look for Jupiter and Saturn near the crescent moon (low in the southwest now), you'll notice that the separation of the two planets has decreased considerably since the summer viewings. I got a very brief look at this in a break in the clouds this evening here.

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2020 7:16am

Thursday, 22 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, mostly due to milder than average overnight readings.
-- Rainfall will be at least near normal if not slightly above, to 50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny then become partly cloudy later this morning, and overcast by afternoon. Winds will gradually freshen this afternoon before becoming quite strong overnight. Highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, although rainfall amounts will be modest, 5 to 10 mm in general, perhaps less near east coast. Lows near 7 C and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy after the rain clears east by mid-morning, and it will then stay quite windy all day with another interval of rain by evening west, overnight east. Highs 11 to 14 C and winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain and embedded thunderstorms possible, with locally strong wind gusts and hail possible with the inland western counties most at risk. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C, winds southwest veering to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue very unsettled with further rain or showers likely (5-15 mm), a bit cooler with temperatures in the range of 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers. It may become very windy or even stormy on the west coast by evening, or overnight into Tuesday, depending on timing of events (see outlook). Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 9 to 12 C range.

The OUTLOOK is dependent on the eventual track of the remnant low of Epsilon which has managed to become a major hurricane near Bermuda overnight (cat-3). The models are generally suggesting it will move steadily northeast and swerve to the north, performing a loop south of Iceland. This will ramp up winds over Ireland but the main risks of severe weather might come from secondary lows that form in the circulation around the decaying former hurricane as the jet stream looks like it will be dropping back south during that loop event. Therefore while Monday night or Tuesday could be quite windy and wet, even more active weather events could come along later in the week around Thursday 29th and Saturday 31st.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant although quite cold, with sunny intervals and highs near 7 C. By early evening it had already fallen below freezing under clear skies. We are expecting a light snowfall (possibly just traces to 2 cm) then more clear, cold weather to follow.

M.T. Cranium · 23-10-2020 8:37am

Friday, 23 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, mostly due to milder than average overnight readings.
-- Rainfall will be at least near normal if not slightly above, to 50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy after the rain clears east this morning, with a few residual showers mostly in Ulster and north Connacht, and it will be quite windy all day with another interval of rain by evening west, overnight east. Highs 11 to 14 C and winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

TONIGHT will become very windy with rain (10-20 mm) and southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr, with temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range, rising to about 12 C before dawn in Atlantic coastal counties.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain and embedded thunderstorms possible, with locally strong wind gusts and hail possible with the inland western counties most at risk. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C, winds southwest veering to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue very unsettled with further rain or showers likely (5-15 mm), a bit cooler with temperatures in the range of 8 to 12 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers. There may be a break in the unsettled weather briefly during the mid-day hours, but it will be quite windy and wet by evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and windy with passing showers, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and temperatures steady near 9 or 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for later next week is unsettled, with strong winds at times, and temperatures generally near or slightly above 10 C.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and cold with traces of light snow, accumulating on nearby hills but not right around my location, with a high of only 2 C. Hurricane Epsilon meanwhile is tracking north to the east of Bermuda, back down to a cat-1 storm now, and heading for the central Atlantic by the weekend. The forecast models continue to spin its remnants around south of Iceland with secondary lows developing in its wake and bringing intervals of unsettled weather for Ireland later next week. Longer term models show potential for yet another hurricane to form in the western Atlantic by early November -- this one would be Zeta, the last name used in 2005 (when it appeared just before New Years Day 2006).

M.T. Cranium · 24-10-2020 6:27am

Saturday, 24 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about one degree above normal values, this mainly due to milder than average overnight readings, as daytime highs will be average or even a bit below.
-- Rainfall will total close to normal values although could be 25-50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite windy, with squally showers moving east this morning, followed by partial clearing but further showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-day and afternoon in moderate to strong southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C, mildest in southeastern counties. About 10-20 mm rainfalls expected.

TONIGHT will be blustery and turning cooler with occasional rain, lows 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and rather cool with intervals of rain, more frequent in western counties where 5-10 mm is expected. Highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and more settled with only isolated showers until rain arrives in the evening. Winds more moderate from west backing southwest and increasing to strong by evening. Lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY will be windy with occasional showers and risk of some thunder or hail, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr at times, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather blustery with occasional showers and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are currently looking rather mild with outbreaks of rain that could become heavy at times, and moderate to strong south to southwest winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

The pattern shows little signs of change with the Atlantic quite dominant well into November.

My local weather on Friday produced heavy snow locally, with 20 cms on the ground by mid-afternoon, and temperatures close to zero C. This is part of a large-scale arctic outbreak across western Canada that has the prairies well below freezing after snowfalls there earlier. We are expecting a gradual clearing trend and very cold temperatures for several days.

Hurricane Epsilon update -- no changes from yesterday's guidance, still expected to loop around west of Ireland and south of Iceland by Tuesday with its most direct impact on Ireland coming by Wednesday as the decaying centre after several loops and spins may arrive in coastal Connacht, but in a much weaker form than currently.

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2020 7:47am

Sunday, 25 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with best chance for any sunny breaks in midlands, east and south. Showery rain will be fairly widespread at times, with longer intervals of steady rain possible in some western counties. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and breezy with showers continuing, lows near 6 C.

MONDAY will be somewhat less unsettled with longer dry intervals but still some occasional shower activity and moderate westerly winds, increasing late in the day and backing to southerly. Highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will bring an interval of very windy and wet conditions as a front pushes in ahead of the remnant low of Hurricane Epsilon. That low will take another day or two to reach Ireland after it loops around in the Atlantic, but this initial wave may be its strongest blast as the low will be much weaker within two days when it does arrive. So watch for some gusts to about 110 km/hr and 10-20 mm of rain with some marginal improvements possible later Tuesday as the front pushes further east. Temperatures will be steady near 10 or 11 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see secondary waves of the decaying phase of Epsilon, and a named storm is possible, whether the relevant met services decide to stick with "Epsilon" or give it a different name, the general idea would be that it is the last stages of Epsilon's complex evolution, with more wind and rain and fairly mild temperatures since the flow will be strong southwesterly, 12 to 14 C is possible, and 15-30 mm rainfalls.

Towards the end of the week there could be a brief break before yet another series of lows comes across the Atlantic. These may be triggered by the life cycle of the next tropical system now "Tropical Depression 28" and about to become Tropical Storm Zeta near western Cuba. This will push through the Gulf of Mexico then the southeast U.S. and lows will then redevelop early next week off the New England coast and head across the Atlantic. It looks like one or two fairly strong lows may develop out of this and arrive in Ireland in the first week of November. By the way, yet another tropical storm possibility exists on maps for the second week of November and that one (which looks like it would stay in the tropical latitudes of central America) would be "Eta." We didn't get that far into the Greek alphabet in 2005 but the additional storm added to that year after the season ended means that our "Eta" will be the 28th named storm as was "Zeta" of 2005, so in some ways to break into totally uncharted territory, we need to get past Eta and congratulations if you know the name of that storm (I would need to look it up, I know there's an omicron somewhere down the road if we keep this up, as well as both Mu and Nu, which I would find amusing.

What I didn't find amusing was the mid-January chill and appearance outside here with 25 cm of snow on the ground, a clear blue sky and a bit of blowing snow when the wind picked up, with the temperature at mid-day only minus 2 C, pretty much an all-time record for cold and snow here in October (as it has been in various other places in British Columbia; snow falling on fully leafed trees has caused some power outages in some areas). At midnight here it is clear and -8 C. This is roughly 10-15 degrees below normal for this location. I'll try to get a picture posted with the next forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2020 7:48am

Monday, 26 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 Oct to 01 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values with a peak around Thursday.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal, once again peaking around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be somewhat less windy than recent or coming days, although the break may be marginal for western counties with southwest winds 40-70 km/hr there. Rather frequent showers near Atlantic coasts but many of these will die out before making it too far across the inland counties, so some longer bright spells further east. Highs about 12 C.

TONIGHT will become very windy with intervals of moderate to heavy rain, 5-15 mm likely and 25 mm in a few spots (Connemara and higher parts of Kerry for example). Winds peaking around 70-110 km/hr south to southwest in the early morning hours. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will continue quite windy with a gradual moderation, and the rain will taper off to showers and these will become more confined to western coasts eventually. Highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with occasional rain, more frequent and sustained in western counties. Winds west-southwest around 70-100 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder with occasional rain, highs near 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be windy with rain or showers, highs near 12 C, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will also be windy with some severe gusts possible during a frontal passage, southwest to west 70-110 km/hr with risk of even higher gusts in exposed Atlantic counties. Temperatures steady near 10 C then slowly falling later in the day to around 5-7 C.

The OUTLOOK is for further intervals of rain and wind, although some guidance is beginning to suggest a more settled trend may develop with high pressure closer to Ireland as the jet stream lifts a bit to the north. Not really sold on this yet, but worth tracking. Epsilon is no longer a tropical system but a powerful post-tropical low east of Newfoundland now. The guidance continues as before with a loop to the west of Ireland and south of Iceland followed by eventual arrival of the remnant low in either Ulster or western Scotland by Wednesday. Meanwhile Zeta has formed near the Yucatan and will be tracking into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, possibly reaching marginal cat-1 hurricane intensity at some point. After that, it's Eta, Theta, Iota and Lambda, all names never used before (if in fact they are used in 2020).

My local weather was sunny with a few passing clouds and very cold again with highs no better than -2 C after some record-breaking cold overnight lows below -12 C. The snow has settled to about 10-15 cm now, probably melting slightly from the warm ground underneath more than anything else.

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2020 8:31am

Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS -- Increasingly mild, continued rather wet and mostly cloudy for the next week, more settled weather may appear in the week after that.

FORECAST (discussion) -- Going blog format today, it's interesting to note that remnant low of Epsilon has stalled out south of (western) Iceland at about 56N 28W with a central pressure of 942 mbs. It's fortunate that this powerful low remained that far out to sea, as winds close to its centre are probably well in excess of 120 km/hr.

As things stand, the initial frontal band associated with the former hurricane has now passed through most of Ireland except for east Ulster, and has moved on across the Irish Sea into western Britain. Only about 3-5 mm of rain was reported with it in most places, somewhat heavier looking (around midnight) on radar in parts of western Connacht.

We will spend the rest of the day in a partly cloudy and continued rather windy southwesterly flow with more vigorous looking bands of showers indicated on satellite imagery heading into western counties mid-day and crossing the country this afternoon and evening. Highs will reach about 12 to 14 C with winds southwest 50-80 km/hr and a few higher gusts possible later on again. However, for some parts of the east and south, there will also be some reasonably good dry intervals and a bit of sunshine at times.

The southwest flow continues all day tomorrow with a new low approaching from the central portions of the Atlantic, having formed up south of Newfoundland today. This one will come a bit closer than Epsilon which after today will be gradually weakening and filling up around Iceland. By about Wednesday night the new Atlantic low (which could possibly get a name of its own) will be the dominant feature and will be pumping up some subtropical moisture and warmth. Temperatures could rise to 15 to 17 C in some parts of the south and inland southeast by Wednesday night into Thursday, with south to southwest winds 70 to 100 km/hr expected, marginal for wind warnings but expect perhaps a yellow alert for both wind and rain by Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

The mild southwest flow will continue all day Thursday and to some extent on Friday with a bit of dry slot crossing the country as the first low heads on towards Norway, and the remnant low of Zeta having merged with a low further north by Friday comes rapidly into play for the weekend. This will lead to a second round of wind, mild temperatures and rain lasting through most of Saturday (31st). Hurricane Zeta is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, will be making a landfall near Mobile, Alabama mid-week and its remnants will emerge into the Atlantic around Virginia on Friday. It could even briefly regain tropical storm status there while racing east in a strong jet stream. The merged low including a trough that is currently in my part of the world heading east, will all be consolidating into a fairly strong Atlantic low due to pass Donegal Bay Saturday night. But there may be a somewhat separate low remaining in the complex to the south that brings an interval of heavy rain to the southeast counties of Ireland on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the main centre of low still quite distant in the Atlantic at that point. The rain from the Atlantic system will be heavier by afternoon and evening, so it could turn into a two-part rainfall event in some parts of Ireland. Temperatures will stay quite mild through all of this, 12 to 15 degrees, only falling off to any extent by Sunday morning in a fresher westerly flow. Winds will be peaking again late Saturday near 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas, then dropping off to a more moderate 50-70 km/hr on Sunday; however, some southeastern counties will only have a short interval of stronger winds as the first low will have a weak circulation of its own acting somewhat against the flow of the parent low.

Eventually, the circulation will calm down somewhat by the first part of November, and higher pressure over Europe may begin to play a role, with the possibility of some night frosts returning, but this won't be a wintry situation, just a typical late autumn anticyclonic interlude with light southeast to east winds at times, and perhaps a few dry days in a row as a distinct change in the pattern. This does not look to have a very long life span and it will probably be back to Atlantic domination at some point within a week of any such lull in the disturbed weather.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and remained quite cold, barely scraping above zero for a high. There is a bit of light sleety precipitation as low pressure tracks north of us and begins to bring in milder Pacific air that will eventually return our frosty temperatures back to more normal values and melt our rather frozen 10-15 cm snow cover (at least at my elevation, I think the hills may remain snow covered now).

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2020 8:20am

Wednesday, 28 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 28 Oct to 3 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, about 3 to 5 above from Thursday to Saturday then near normal or a bit below later in the period.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal but local maxima of twice normal may be expected in Connemara and Kerry, west Cork.

-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, to verify there will need to be a fairly good amount of sunshine on a few days because cloud will be frequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with passing showers and isolated thunderstorms, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY will become wet and rather mild to very mild later, with fog and intervals of heavy rain developing (30-50 mm possible in Connemara, 20-40 mm in Connacht and west Munster more generally, and 10 to 30 mm elsewhere). Temperatures will either remain steady or rise slowly tonight, peaking later on Thursday at around 16 C in the south and 14 C north. Winds will remain moderate to strong southwesterly, probably in the 50 to 80 km/hr range most of the time but with potential for some higher wind speeds near any organized convective showers.

FRIDAY will bring a rather variable weather picture with some breaks and some areas of rain but gradually the disorganized pattern will consolidate into a low pressure area tracking through the southeast and bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls to many areas, 20-40 mm to Kerry and west Cork. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY remains a "watch" situation as there is considerable potential for a strong to damaging wind event as the energy from Zeta arrives from the Atlantic. At the very least, expect a day of strong southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr, and intervals of moderate to heavy showery rainfalls 10-20 mm, but the potential exists for more intense outcomes. Temperatures will be steady in the 12-14 C range. See the discussion after the rest of the forecast for more about Zeta.

SUNDAY will also be rather windy but will be turning colder, near 9 C mid-day, in strong westerly winds and passing showers.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking windy and colder too as the flow gradually turns more northerly, and temperatures drop slowly to levels around 7 C on Monday and 5 C on Tuesday. Some rain will likely accompany the strong winds (70-110 km/hr) and it could turn sleety on higher ground.

The further outlook calls for a four to seven day interval of settled weather under high pressure with winds dropping off to much lower speeds by end of the week, then picking up gradually from the southeast. This would be a rather cold interval with a slow moderating trend towards the second week of November. Eventually it looks like the Atlantic would kick in again although the jet stream seems to be taking a far northern route when that happens so there may be rather mild but anticyclonic intervals in mid-November with passing fronts somewhat muted in their intensity.

Hurricane Zeta is racing north towards a landfall late today in southeast Louisiana. From there the low will cross the inland southeast on Thursday and emerge east of Virginia by Friday, then it will be swept rapidly east across the Atlantic by a very strong jet stream. Rather than wandering off towards Iceland as Epsilon did, this jet stream will force the remnant energy from Zeta (which may be strung out into several waves) to approach Ireland and Scotland, and this is a large part of the potential for very stormy conditions mentioned here and in the official Met-E forecasts, around Saturday night. Bear in mind that the large distances involved and speeds of these weather systems will mean that even small errors in model forecast solutions could ripple through several days into fairly large changes, so that while it seems physically impossible for the intense low to arrive much before Saturday night, it could be delayed into Sunday or even Monday (not saying this will happen but the uncertainty is skewed more towards later than earlier).

Zeta has been moving towards a frontal zone that is stationary due to closed low pressure in the upper atmosphere over Texas and Oklahoma, where some areas have seen freezing rain, and further west, snow (Albuquerque NM had about 10-20 cms, a late October record for them). The very cold air feeding into this storm won't come into direct contact with Zeta which will move through a much milder air mass over the southeastern U.S. where temperatures are around 20 C. Zeta will be heading inland very close to New Orleans tonight and then between Atlanta and Nashville tomorrow, into the Virginias by Thursday night. The arctic front involved (some distance further north and west) will be dragged into the inland northeastern U.S. and might produce a bit of snow or sleet on hills well inland from the coastal cities. Places like Washington DC will have rain and temperatures around 15 C, New York City around 8-10 C.

My local weather continues rather cold too, despite milder air having moved in over top of the region, the light winds are not allowing much scouring out of the cold air in valleys so it remains around 2 C under cloud, but should warm up a bit further each day to the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2020 7:47am

Thursday, 29 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 Oct to 4 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal with a decreasing trend towards near normal late in the period.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal but will be restricted to only two or three days with significant breaks in the overcast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue very mild and wet, with a gradual drying trend late in the day after 20-30 mm rainfalls end. Highs 14 to 16 C, winds moderate southwest 50-80 km/hr will ease this afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with patchy light rain in some parts of the north, moderate to light winds, and fog patches, lows 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will start out dry with variable cloud, then will become overcast and rather windy later in the day with an interval of rain spreading into the south by evening. Highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy and will become increasingly windy with occasional rain then an interval of blustery winds and heavy rains overnight into Sunday morning. Highs near 15 C and winds by evening and overnight hours peaking at around 80-120 km/hr (southwest veering to west). This is still the last stages of Zeta which is currently in Alabama having made landfall Wednesday evening local time. At the moment the forecast models are not developing Zeta to the more extreme solutions but it will be a significant wind and rain producer.

SUNDAY will remain quite windy and another low that forms in the wake of Zeta will move through late in the day, so a fairly similar sequence of events to the previous day, partly to mostly cloudy with passing showers, windy, and intervals of strong wind and heavy rain possible Sunday night. Temperatures are now expected to be only a degree or two cooler before this last of the sequence of lows moves through, or around 12-13 C. There could be another interval of wind gusts near 110 km/hr but most of the day will average 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY will be windy and cooler with passing showers and falling temperatures in the range of 10 C morning to near 5 C by afternoon and evening. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be breezy and cold with intervals of cloud and sun, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY to the end of the week, high pressure will settle in and calm things down for several days, with frosty nights and chilly autumnal days around 7 C. Eventually this regime will develop into a milder southeasterly flow with light rain at times, temperatures in the 10-12 C range by around 10th of November.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder with highs near 7 C. This evening there were enough breaks in the high overcast to get a brief view of Mars near the nearly full moon. If you have any breaks in your cloud this evening, you should see them quite close in the eastern sky. Full moon is on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2020 8:20am

Friday, 30 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Oct to 5 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal with the trend generally downwards after Sunday, so around 5 deg above normal at times through the first part of this interval and near normal to perhaps slightly below by end.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal with heavy falls likely on several occasions to Monday, dry towards end of the weekly interval though.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values, managing perhaps a better performance towards the end of this weekly interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will provide a general break from the rain and wind although there could be patchy outbreaks of drizzle giving perhaps 1-2 mm further rainfalls in some areas. A few sunny breaks are possible by mid-day and afternoon, more likely to the north as frontal cloud seems stuck over southern counties. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will start out partly cloudy but clouds will increase as winds pick up to strong southerly 50-80 km/hr, with rain sweeping into the south. Winds may increase further towards daybreak reaching 70-110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas, especially west Munster and Atlantic coasts of Connacht. Rainfalls 10-30 mm possible with some heavy bursts towards dawn in west Munster. Temperatures steady 7-10 C then perhaps rising somewhat to around 12 or 13 C.

SATURDAY morning could be quite stormy as a front pushes in from the west, changing the strong southerly winds to very blustery westerlies. This may shift the impact of strongest winds further north into Galway and through the mid-section of the country, reaching the east coast by early afternoon. Rain and possibly a few thunderstorms should end with this frontal passage with partial clearing in the strong westerly winds, but a few showers will follow. Winds may gust as high as 120 km/hr resulting in some damage in exposed areas. Temperatures steady around 14 C until the frontal passage, then dropping a few degrees.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY MORNING another potential windy period as remnants of Zeta pass by to the northwest, model guidance is somewhat scattered on how strong these winds could be, but at the very least would expect an interval of southwest winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly 80-120 km/hr if the low is both intense enough and close enough to bring them onto land. Temperatures will remain in the 10-12 C range with potential for 10-20 mm of rain during this event. There is a slight risk that the two storms will combine into one exceptionally strong low, very little guidance supports this but there are some very strong winds aloft and the remnants of Zeta have been making even faster progress than some of the guidance was suggesting earlier. So we're on a watch situation for this part, would take the first (Saturday morning to mid-day) event as being almost certain now, this one more of a wait and see.

By SUNDAY afternoon winds should abate as another low approaches but on a more southerly course, so that any strong winds would be further south than Ireland and aloft, with rain becoming quite steady for a while Sunday evening and overnight, 10 to 20 mm more could fall then, with temperatures gradually falling from about 10 C to near 5 C by Monday morning.

MONDAY will be windy and cooler with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, possibly some higher gusts, and rather chilly with highs about 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and cold with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, isolated showers, some sunny breaks, and perhaps the first real wind chill of the season with actual temperatures near 7 C, feeling closer to 2 C.

The OUTLOOK for mid-week to the weekend is fair and settled, with light winds for a few days, as high pressure builds up over Ireland. Temperatures will be rather cold, frosts at night and daytime highs 5 to 8 C. This will give way to milder southeast winds, cloudy skies and light to moderate rain at times by about the weekend of 7th-8th and into the following week, but there could be a colder interval within a few days of that.

My local weather on Thursday remained partly cloudy and a bit milder than previous days, highs near 10 C. Our recent snow has retreated to shady areas and even there is only about 5 cms now.

Will be keeping a close eye on developments and may update whenever situation merits it.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2020 8:25am

Saturday, 31 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS same as yesterday's report ... going straight to the forecast ...

TODAY ... Strong southerly winds and intervals of heavy rain, with a sharp windshift likely to westerly as early as present time in some western counties and as late as 1100h on east coast, as a squall line forms and produces the final bursts of heavy, possibly thundery rains. Total rainfalls (including some already received) from storm "Aiden" will be around 15-30 mm. Some local flooding is possible (where feasible, clear drains of leaves that mix with the storm runoff, this will reduce street flooding). The strong winds will be in the range of 70-110 km/hr for most places and could peak at around 120 km/hr around Galway Bay and a few other well exposed locations especially around the windshift. The afternoon will be considerably less stormy, while the westerly winds will remain moderate (40-70 km/hr at their low point around sunset), skies will partially clear and it will remain rather mild as remnants of "Zeta" quickly approach to reinforce the mild southwest flow. Highs today will be near 15 or 16 C and it won't get much cooler than that at any point later on.

TONIGHT ... Remnants of "Zeta" will whistle past Donegal Bay around 0200-0400h, and ahead of that, another windy frontal passage will bring intervals of showery rain, localized thunderstorms, and wind gusts of 70 to 110 km/hr. Fortunately, just around the time ex-hurricane Zeta intensifies a bit further, its circulation will be pulled offshore and towards the Hebrides, so well out to sea there could be force 11-12 winds by early morning. Most places on land will only see a moderate impact from this second round, but the Galway and Mayo coasts could have more intense gusts at times. Temperatures steady tonight 12 to 15 C, mildest in the south and east. About 10 mm of rain is likely with this phase of the complex storm event (some may be referring to this part two as Aiden's last gasp but actually it's Zeta's last gasp).

SUNDAY ... A third wave is coming in after "Zeta" and this one only partially develops, so that once winds moderate following the overnight hours, they will remain steady-state until this final wave passes by. In fact winds may drop to quite low values in the north with a slack circulation replacing the strong southwesterlies, but will remain moderate south to southwest near the south coast (40-70 km/hr) and up the east coast about as far as Dublin. Occasional light rain can be expected all day, 10-15 mm amounts likely. Temperatures on Sunday will level off around 9 or 10 C in most of the west and north, and 12 to 15 C in the south and east. They will start to fall lower when this final wave passes Sunday late afternoon.

MONDAY ... Rather windy and somewhat colder, passing showers or intervals of light rain. Winds southwest to west at about 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher at times near Atlantic coasts. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and turning a bit colder again, partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds west to northwest at about 40 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool, light winds. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 or 8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Morning fog may become persistent in some places, frosts and freezing fog possible, light winds, eventually clearing for most to sunshine through high cloud, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... A somewhat milder east to southeast flow will develop, some light rain more likely in south than elsewhere, highs about 10 C.

My local weather on Friday was considerably milder with sunny breaks and highs near 14 C. That has finished off the snow except in shady areas but it's still there on the local mountains.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2020 7:56am

Sunday, 1 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 November 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal in parts of the south. Most of this rain will fall today and Monday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25% above normal, but the first two days will be mostly cloudy, so a more sunny interval will follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast after perhaps a few brighter intervals in the southeast this morning, and rain will spread in from the southwest, becoming moderate to heavy in bursts, especially over parts of west Munster where 20-30 mm could fall (10-20 mm most other places). It will stay fairly mild especially in the south and east with temperatures steady or rising slightly to around 14 C. Readings will be closer to 10 C in the north. Winds will drop back into the moderate range where they have not already done so, and may return to a few stronger gusts late in the day near the south coast (southwest 50-70 km/hr for most places today).

TONIGHT will become somewhat colder with a windshift to westerly around midnight, rain continuing but becoming more showery towards morning, a further 5-10 mm likely. Lows near 5 C, winds by dawn westerly 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with frequent showers or intervals of light rain, and cool, highs 8 to 10 C, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, some higher gusts possible in the north.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, and quite chilly with morning lows around 2 C and afternoon highs 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and cool, morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be prone to some lingering fog in valleys, and that may hold temperatures down in a few places, as the overnight readings will be near or slightly below freezing. Afternoons could warm up to 9 or 10 C where sunshine develops, but could be held to 6 or 7 C under persistent low cloud. Light winds throughout.

The OUTLOOK for the weekend is overcast, milder with occasional light rain and moderate southeast breezes, highs near 10 to 12 C, frost free again.

Beyond that, rather typical November weather seems likely, fairly frequent cloud and showers, temperatures generally in the 7-10 C range, sometimes enough clearing at night for brief frosts. The month as a whole is likely to come in fairly mild and perhaps a bit below average for rainfall given that November is often quite a wet month and we're not expecting anything more than an average outcome, perhaps 10 to 20 per cent less than average.

My local weather on Hallowe'en Saturday was clear, mild in the daytime and quite cold now at midnight with the full moon quite bright. We had an extra week of "summer time" as you say (daylight savings here) and we are changing our clocks tonight to return to "standard" time (in my case, Pacific standard time).

There's no quit in the 2020 tropical season, "Eta" was born on Saturday and threatens to become a hurricane near the coast of Honduras, and then some guidance (not all) suggests it will head for western Cuba and southern Florida in the coming week. Because 2005 had that extra storm added, this year's Eta matches the count in 2005 (28) that ended with Zeta (which formed just before December ended). So we now stand at the same total 59 days earlier and have all that time left to use up a few more names, such as Theta, Iota, Lambda, Mu, Nu, Omicron ... that should be more than enough. Of the 28, only 11 have so far been hurricanes, 12 when or if Eta does so. The 2005 season holds that record (15) and it would take quite a lot to reach that given that most November storms are capped at tropical storm intensity, and December storms are rare.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2020 8:12am

Monday, 2 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for 2 to 8 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below in some inland areas.
-- Rainfall will average about half to three quarters of normal now that much of the weekend action has come and gone, however, there's still a fair amount of rain to go through today and even Tuesday; the middle to later portions of the interval will be relatively dry with a bit of rain likely in the south by around the 7th and 8th.
-- Sunshine may average close to normal but at this time of year that's only about 3 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with passing showers, some of which are likely to develop hail and thunder as freezing levels drop to near summit elevations, so a coating of sleet or snow could develop on higher peaks. At elevations where most people will be today, the main risk is a temporary but significant covering of hail, and this is quite likely in higher parts of Connacht, west Ulster and elsewhere too. Winds west-southwest 50-80 km/hr, sometimes veering a bit more to northwest. Cooler with highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will have a few clear intervals but showers will continue if somewhat more confined to western counties, with moderate westerly winds and lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers, generally not as widespread or intense as today, some places in the east and south likely dry most of the day, highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a bit of morning fog or mist inland, and brighten to partly cloudy or even sunny skies by mid-day and afternoon. Rather breezy near coasts but generally less windy for most places, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 or 8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will have strong high pressure overhead leading to very light winds that won't be easily able to dissipate any fog or morning frost in shady spots, but some places, especially around larger towns and coasts, could have reasonably mild mid-day conditions under sunshine. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

By the WEEKEND and beyond, more cloud and a light to moderate southeast wind flow with the risk of some rain developing especially near south coast, highs creeping back above 10 C and not much frost in the mix. Eventually a rather bland but mild pattern will develop, it seems that the Atlantic wants to take a bit of a rest which is understandable.

Eta will likely become a hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua and some modelling shows it becoming rather intense, a scenario somewhat reminiscent of Mitch (1998) which unleashed lethal amounts of rainfall in Honduras. If I recall correctly, Mitch eventually looped around and wandered further north in a weakened form. That might happen with our latest Greek alphabet storm too. And there are signs of yet another one for the eastern Caribbean next week.

My local weather was sunny and pleasantly mild especially given the date, around 12 C, but the nights quickly get frosty and what's left of any snow has turned largely to icy slush now (not much is left fortunately). The local peaks have lost their snow cover below 1700 metres now (at least on the slopes I can see, the north sides are probably covered), and the higher peaks have some covering on all sides. We rarely get a dry November around here but there isn't much rain or snow in the forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2020 8:44am

Tuesday, 3 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average slightly below normal by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be at least near average and could reach 25-50 per cent above normal in coastal areas.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and rather cold with passing showers, a few of which could produce hail and thunder. Despite that, long dry intervals are likely away from the more unsettled northwest, north central and Atlantic coastal counties. Winds west-northwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times, with some fog or mist patches forming well inland before dawn. Lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and cool, with one or two isolated showers in the north and west. Breezes will be more moderate. Highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be calm and generally clear although any morning fog could be persistent and transition to low cloud for a time before clearing away. Frosts will be fairly common. Lows -4 to +2 C both mornings and highs around 7 to 10 C, higher values likely in coastal and urban settings.

By SATURDAY, some cloud will encroach on the south and rain could spread in later, but it should remain dry and pleasantly mild further north, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

The further outlook calls for generally cloudy and sometimes showery weather, with near normal mid-November temperatures. Once again models are hinting at a cold spell in about two weeks but we've seen these appear then disappear several times this autumn, not that sold on it here.

Hurricane Eta is now a cat-4 monster slowly heading for the east coast of Nicaragua. It is expected to move gradually into Honduras, slowly weakening but unleashing very large amounts of rainfall which will become the main problem in the region. Eventually the very weak remnant low will drift away from Honduras possibly to the north and out into the Caribbean again where it could redevelop into a tropical storm near Cuba in about five to seven days. There is also a possibility that the energy will cross into the Pacific and feed into a differently named tropical system there.

My local weather has now hit four days of clear skies and mild mid-day temperatures, in fact it reached about 15 C at mid-day on Monday. Nights turn cold quite rapidly after sunset. This spell seems to be about to end and will give way to cloudier skies but not much rain or snow. Eastern North America will be going from fairly cool weather to a very mild spell in the coming days, it could be close to 20 C in many areas later this week.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2020 8:37am

Wednesday, 4 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 November, 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent of normal values in the south, even less further north.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values to 25 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with a few cloudy intervals. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with fog patches and frost forming after midnight. Lows -4 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny once the morning mist and fog dissipates, and temperatures will slowly recover to highs of 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be similar, clear and cold with fog patches in the morning, partly sunny by afternoon, highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy although with some brighter intervals in the north. Lows will be 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C. Some patchy light rain is likely to spread into parts of Munster and perhaps south Leinster.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with further outbreaks of rain, somewhat heavier. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will continue cloudy and rather mild with occasional rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

The trends beyond Monday will be generally mild and unsettled.

My local weather was overcast with some light rain at times, with a high near 10 C.

Hurricane Eta, rapidly weakening, has moved inland and will be into Honduras soon, then its remnants will emerge back into the Caribbean and those could reform into a tropical storm by the weekend, near Cuba. Longer term, Eta could wander through the Florida straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2020 9:04am

Thursday, 5 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as posted yesterday (near normal temps, dry with small amounts of rain early next week, rather good for sunshine this time of year) ...

There was not quite as much frost as expected overnight, only Moorepark got to the freezing mark so far. This may be partly because there was a bit more wind circulation with a shift south of the high pressure area.

Forecasts remain about the same however. TODAY will be partly cloudy with light winds, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, isolated frost, fog patches, lows -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with a few breaks, highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY overcast except partly cloudy far north, a few outbreaks of light rain in south, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY overcast with outbreaks of light rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY cloudy, morning showers, some clearing later, mild. Highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY increasing cloud, rain by overnight hours, mild, becoming windy, highs near 15 C.

The pattern from then on looks rather mild with occasional frontal passages, not too strong for November, and temperatures a bit above normal.

The remains of former hurricane Eta are downgraded to a tropical depression over Honduras and this will move back into the Caribbean by late tomorrow or Friday, approach Cuba as a weak tropical storm, cross over Cuba on the weekend, then strengthen back to perhaps a marginal hurricane again or strong tropical storm near south Florida on Monday. The rather weak little storm at that point resembles a dog looking for a weak spot in the garden fence and eventually jumps into the jet stream around Mobile Alabama and that's the end of Eta.

Wednesday around my part of the world was gloomy with low cloud, fog and drizzle, but mild with highs near 10 C. The weather across most of the U.S. is quite mild for November and ideal for taking all those ballots outside and counting in the warm November sun. But I imagine they will stay inside to be closer to the copying machines.

M.T. Cranium · 06-11-2020 9:26am

Friday, 6 November

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average 75 per cent of normal in the south, decreasing to 25 per cent in Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the north. There could be patchy drizzle near the south coast by afternoon, other regions will hold dry. Highs 7 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with intermittent drizzle in the south, southeast winds slowly freshening to 30-50 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C. Rather foggy or misty especially over higher terrain by morning.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy, with a few breaks in Ulster. Patchy light rain will make slow northward progress and will become heavier across parts of Munster and south Leinster by afternoon and evening. Winds southeast about 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast, foggy at times, with outbreaks of rain (10-15 mm expected). Moderate southeast winds of 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, and mild. Rain will become intermittent and patchy by mid-day after a further 5-10 mm falls. Winds southeast to south 50-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with a few breaks, and foggy or misty at times near the south coast, in a southerly breeze of 30 to 50 km/hr. Intermittent and patchy light rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and mild with showers, winds veering southwest to west 50-80 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

The further OUTLOOK calls for the mild south to southwest flow to continue, with perhaps more of an anticyclonic influence later in the week and towards the weekend, temperatures still above normal values but perhaps dropping back slightly to around 11-12 C.

Tropical Depression Eta has moved back out over the southwest Caribbean Sea east of Belize, starting to reorganize and heading for a trek across Cuba as a minimal tropical storm this weekend, then swerving west into the Florida Keys and beyond next week. It could redevelop as much as a marginal hurricane eventually.

My local weather was freakishly mild most of the day. We peaked at 19 C in the Columbia valley and about 14 C up the hill at our location (but we were enjoying the 19 C outside at lunch time). A Pacific storm system had moved into western B.C. and weakened, leaving behind cloud but little rain, and eventually this system weakened so much that it almost vanished from the map while a new low has formed well to our south. Patchy drizzle followed and it has turned a bit cooler reaching 6 C at present time, heading down to 2 C by morning with patchy sleet likely around here then clearing for the weekend with a modified cold air mass over the region by then. The new low will edge further east and pump in very mild air for almost all regions of the U.S. and southern Ontario, with readings expected to soar past 20 C in many areas.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2020 8:07am

Saturday, 7 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 November 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values (nights very mild).
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south, 50 to 75 per cent of normal elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will average near normal for mid-November (2 to 3 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast in the south with outbreaks of light rain. Some sunny intervals at first in central counties, rather cloudy in Ulster. These zones will shift north and the cloud and light rain will make some further progress mostly in western counties. Mild with moderate southeast breezes, highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with fog and mist becoming widespread, light rain at times, lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY will bring further outbreaks of light rain, moderate southeast to south winds, and a few brighter intervals too, quite mild with highs near 14 or 15 C.

MONDAY will have variable cloud cover, some further rainfalls, and moderate south to southwest winds, with lows around 7 C and highs around 14 C.

TUESDAY will see some breaks in the cloud for a while, then a strong frontal system will move in with moderate to heavy rain and strong southerly winds, temperatures between 10 and 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a moderating trend in winds and rainfall, to partly cloudy conditions later in the day, and it will stay rather mild with highs near 13 C.

Another series of fronts is due in later in the week; timing is a bit uncertain but temperatures seem likely to remain quite mild (around 12 or 13 C). At some point there could be strong southerly winds, at the moment Thursday night into Friday morning looks most likely for this.

The mild spell seems entrenched for quite some time and there is no reliable indication of it shifting within two weeks at least.

The future course of Eta has only changed slightly in recent updates and the system should redevelop as a tropical storm soon, and cross Cuba on Sunday, brushing past south Florida on Monday and then meandering through the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days. It is likely to get swept up by a frontal system mid-week and its remnants will be quickly transported through the southeast U.S. into the Atlantic.

My local weather turned quite cold with a northeast breeze, mostly dry under cloudy skies, and temperatures near 3 degrees at mid-day, currently slowly clearing and dropping down below freezing.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2020 8:44am

Sunday, 8 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal values. Nights will be very mild.
-- Rainfall will average at least normal values and could reach 50% above normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have some partly to mostly cloudy intervals with the first batch of rain now largely confined to Ulster. Some further showers will develop in a mild southeasterly flow, and another interval of rain will begin by afternoon in parts of the south, spreading further north. Highs 13 to 15 C, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild with rain at times, 10-20 mm likely, lows 9 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with rain tapering to showers, some slight clearing may develop in west Munster late in the day, highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will be foggy at first to overcast by afternoon, with occasional light rain, becoming heavier overnight, mild with lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and wet, with temperatures steady near 13 C. Winds southeast to south, then southwest, at about 70 to 90 km/hr and possibly higher in some coastal areas. 20-40 mm rainfall potential with flood risks.

THURSDAY will be overcast and mild with occasional rain, highs near 13 C.

The further outlook is for very little change in the pattern, in a very mild south to southwest flow, occasional pulses of rainfall associated with passing low pressure centres embedded in the flow. It is hard to say when this pattern might break down, but it could become more active in terms of wind and rainfall later in the month. Temperatures will continue around 10 to 13 C much of the time.

Tropical Storm Eta has reformed and is approaching south-central Cuba, and will be veering westward once it crosses Cuba today, then moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Its eventual fate is to be absorbed into a frontal system late next week near Mobile, AL or in northwest FL. There is some chance it will redevelop hurricane status or at least become a stronger tropical storm than it is now with current maximum winds about 80 km/hr.

My local weather was quite tolerable on Saturday, we're into a colder air mass but not colder than average here, partly cloudy, light winds and highs near 5 C, slight frosts overnight. Very warm on Saturday across the eastern United States, Chicago was 22 C, Washington and New York hit 23 C, Nashville TN was 27 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2020 8:44am

Monday, 9 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal although somewhat above in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will be rather infrequent and might amount to 50-75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with patchy low cloud and some brighter intervals. Light rain will move into the south and southeast by afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with occasional light rain, some dense fog patches may develop. Lows 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain or patchy drizzle, with an interval of heavier rain moving into the west late afternoon or evening. At that time, winds will increase sharply to southerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs will be 13 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and wet with 15-30 mm rainfalls, southerly winds 60-90 km/hr easing by afternoon with a shift to westerly winds 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rain resuming late in the day. Rather cool to start with lows 2 to 5 C, but back into milder air by late in the day with highs by evening near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... At least as mild, if not even a degree or two milder, by weekend of 14th-15th and the following week, some guidance suggesting potential for 15-16 C temperatures at times, and perhaps not as much rainfall as higher pressure to the south begins to swell up closer to Ireland. In this pattern, some dense fog could develop in valleys in south Leinster and east Munster.

Tropical Storm Eta has moved past the southern tip of Florida and north of Key West, FL, into the Gulf of Mexico. It is now expected to meander in various directions, eventually northward, and could regain minimal hurricane status. Yet another storm is possible later this week in the central Atlantic moving gradually east towards Portugal although models lose it before it gets to the coast there.

My local weather on Sunday started with a light snowfall in the early morning hours and mostly clear skies from late morning on, rather cold, reaching a high of -1 C. It was clear and -10 C about an hour ago. That snow was too light to survive even today and the ground is bare with light snow cover on some nearby hilltops. Our autumn colour didn't end with windstorms this year, the leaves are still mostly on the trees somewhat lacking in their previous colours and shrivelled up due to the cold, but only about half the normal leaf fall has occurred so far (which is very late for this climate zone). Meanwhile, a November warm spell is setting daily records in eastern and central states of the U.S. and parts of Ontario and Quebec, with readings widely above 20 C into the 25-27 C in some areas. The month may challenge 1975 which was warmest on record at the rate things are going. That was the month when the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm occurred (on the night of 10th-11th). Today is the 107th anniversary of the 1913 "White Hurricane" as it was called, a severe northerly windstorm on Lake Huron and other parts of the Great Lakes that sank numerous lake freighters and ran up a death toll of almost three hundred mariners.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2020 8:47am

Tuesday, 10 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 November 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal in the southwest, near normal most other areas, although perhaps 25 to 50 per cent below normal in west Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have some brighter intervals this morning despite some patchy cloud and mist, then cloud will rapidly increase in the afternoon, followed by stronger southerly winds and rain by late afternoon in the west. Mild, as highs will reach about 14 C.

TONIGHT will become windy and wet, especially in Kerry where 30-40 mm rain could fall, with flooding possible. About 20-30 mm will be typical for western counties, 10-20 mm elsewhere. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts possible in exposed coastal areas of south and west. Very mild, lows 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY the rain and wind will move across the eastern half of the country, generally losing some intensity moving forward, and a partly to mostly cloudy but dry interval will follow from the west. Winds south to southwest about 50 to 80 km/hr will veer westerly and abate to 30 to 60 km/hr. Highs around 12 C (14 C southeast coastal areas) but temperatures falling a bit during the afternoon to 8-10 C.

THURSDAY will have a rather cold early morning low of 1-4 C under briefly clear skies then cloud will return followed by southwest winds of 50-80 km/hr and rain, heavy at times, to evening or midnight. Highs will reach 10-12 C about the time the rain is ending (10-20 mm expected).

FRIDAY will be somewhat fresher in westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, passing showers with some hail and thunder possible, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY will bring occasional rain and temperatures steady 8-10 C with moderate southwest winds.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will turn very mild, temperatures could peak at about 16 or 17 C in some areas, in a subtropical south to southwest flow. Some rain at times but also dry intervals.

TUESDAY looks like a wet and windy spell as a front comes through, and that might contain remnants of our latest tropical storm (Theta) -- see further details in discussion below. Highs on Tuesday around 13 C.

The further outlook calls for somewhat more average mid-November weather to follow, temperatures may be back down into the more normal 8 to 11 C range, but it will still be an unsettled Atlantic driven pattern at that time. However, within a few days higher pressure may build up and a short settled spell is shown on most of the guidance around the 18th to 20th.

Tropical storm Eta has edged away from south Florida but its wind and rain are still lashing some parts of the state, and eventually it will try to push north but now looks incapable of leaving the Gulf of Mexico before just dying out gradually west of Florida. The Masters golf tournament will be held Thursday to Sunday -- a front trying to link up with Eta will drench the area on Wednesday but after that it looks fairly dry under clouds until Saturday, reasonably warm for time of year (22-25 C) and it could get rather blustery on the Sunday as another front comes through with falling temperatures possible then. Another yet-unborn tropical storm is shown entering the Gulf of Mexico after Eta has gone, and that one could enter the southeastern U.S. late next week. Meanwhile "Theta" has come to life southwest of the Azores. It is slowly tracking east-north-east towards Portugal and various guidance has it either dying out before reaching land, or weak remnants could veer north and be swallowed up in the frontal system due in around Tuesday. Almost nothing is left of Theta's circulation by then so we're not currently talking about anything very dramatic if these remnants do merge with the front.

My local weather: Winter has arrived and that's probably permanent now given the charts. We have light snow falling and -2 C, about 5 cms has accumulated, on the way to 15-20 cms by late tomorrow. I think this snow will stick around and be topped up next week, so the ski resort here is opening up (to limited activity given the COVID situation). Record warmth continued in eastern regions of North America and will last for a few more days, with slightly cooler but still above normal mild spells to follow, as the jet stream has dropped far to the south now in western regions and is taking a long trek northeastward, ending in the Atlantic. In this pattern it's hard to see temperatures in western Europe falling much, but some signs are there now for a colder turn in central Europe and Scandinavia by last week of November.

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2020 8:27am

Wednesday, 11 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal (2-3 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see further bursts of heavy rainfall gradually moving east, likely diminishing somewhat in terms of total amounts further east, as up to 40 mm quite possible in west Munster and Connemara (about half of that already fallen), more like 15-20 mm further east where the rain is just underway. Southerly winds of 50-80 km/hr will also tend to moderate later today, but some local gusts to 100 km/hr possible this morning in exposed west and south coast locations. Temperatures ahead of the front near 14 C then dropping slightly to 8-10 C as winds veer more westerly. Slight clearing may set in on Atlantic coasts by late in the day but the rain will keep falling further east until this evening.

TONIGHT will see the last of the rain from this system moving away, with partly cloudy skies and west to northwest breezes, lows 2 to 5 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast again and rather windy by afternoon with another front arriving, 10-20 mm more rain likely. Highs 10-13 C and winds southwest 50-80 km/hr by afternoon.

FRIDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, lows near 5 C and highs around 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy with occasional rain and temperatures steady 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will likely turn quite mild with partly cloudy to overcast skies and just some rain at times mostly in the west and north. Lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will bring a cold front that may have scooped up the energy remaining from Theta although it seems more likely that weakening system will track further south into France and southeast England now. Temperatures will be slowly falling most of the day from morning highs of 12-14 C. Occasional rain will mark the passage of the front.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be somewhat cooler in a westerly flow, it now appears that high pressure is likely to build a little to the south of Ireland and the Atlantic flow while weaker will keep on going while the high slides past to the south, so expect a dry interval with west-southwest breezes, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C in that period. After the high is well past, a milder southwest flow can resume and it may become rather stormy later in the month.

Tropical storm Eta may regain hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico and is currently expected to make a slow landfall north of Tampa Bay in west Florida late this week. Theta meanwhile has been designated a tropical storm and it is south of the Azores heading in the general direction of Portugal.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow mixed at times with freezing drizzle. Temperatures were steady around -1 C. We now have 7 cms of snow on the ground with a bit more expected today before clearing begins. The warm spell goes on in eastern North America with more records falling on Monday (for example 74 F or 23 C at New York's Central Park).

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2020 7:57am

Thursday, 12 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some brief sunny intervals especially in eastern counties, but clouds will rapidly increase and rain will arrive in the west around mid-day, spreading across the east by early evening. Winds will increase gradually to moderate southerly 50-70 km/hr veering to southwest 60-80 km/hr by late in the day. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain moving quickly across the country (5-10 mm for most locations), and winds will veer to the west at 60-80 km/hr, with lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and a bit cooler with passing showers, a few with hail or thunder. Highs 9 to 11 degrees.

SATURDAY will bring outbreaks of rain, 5 to 15 mm expected, with temperatures steady around 10 C in a moderate southwest wind of 40 to 60 km/hr, some higher gusts likely on Atlantic coasts.

SUNDAY will be fresher with passing showers, moderate to strong westerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr, and temperatures in the range of 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will become milder with partly cloudy to overcast skies, some light rain at times mainly in the west, midlands and north, and lows near 8 C, highs near 14 C (possibly a bit higher inland southeast).

By WEDNESDAY another cold front arrives and drops the temperatures back to around 9 or 10 C with occasional rain and moderate westerly winds.

This Atlantic-driven pattern shows no signs of real change, just the occasional ups and downs with passing frontal systems, and temperatures a degree or two above average for mid to late November.

Tropical Storm Eta is slowly closing in on western Florida for a soggy landfall later today. A weak remnant will emerge into the Atlantic and make some further northeast progress as a minimal tropical storm or tropical depression. Tropical Storm Theta is now almost south of the Azores heading east towards Madeira. It will stall before reaching that island this weekend, then try to keep going but with water temperatures considerably lower where it's heading, chances are that it will fade out of existence before any remnant of it reaches land in western Europe. Its weak remnants will be swept up in the front passing Ireland on Wednesday. Yet another named storm seems likely in the Caribbean (Iota) but the latest guidance on that keeps the storm (which could be a hurricane briefly) around Nicaragua and Honduras without any northward turn as a strong autumn high over the south central U.S. keeps tropical systems out of the Gulf of Mexico after tomorrow. Weather prospects for the Masters golf tournament are fairly good after today's rain passes, the rest of the four days should be largely dry with reasonably warm temperatures for this time of year (near 22 C for highs) and Sunday may become stormy after the final round ends, with thunderstorms possible late in the day there.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a high of about -2 C. This leaves us with the 5-8 cm snow cover intact and rather slippery conditions as there was freezing drizzle mixed in with that snow. Another light snow is expected here on Friday. The eastern North America warm spell is about to end but will be replaced by seasonably mild temperatures that may try to return to warmer levels by the weekend. Chicago started the month with a temperature anomaly of 7 C deg for the first eleven days. (meaning 7 deg above their normal which is around 12 C by day) Several days there have been into the 20s or mid-70s Fahrenheit.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2020 8:02am

Friday, 13 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 3.5 deg above normal values, somewhat colder towards end of the week.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, fairly frequent, often not all that heavy.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values for mid-November (about 2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some passing showers, more frequent in the western and northern counties, winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr, and a slight risk of hail and thunder with some heavier showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, 5-10 mm likely, lows near 6 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with rain at times, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 9 to 11 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit colder with passing squally showers, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will have some bright spells, but a band of rain with a warm front will trek through the country around late morning to early afternoon bringing 3-7 mm rainfalls. Winds moderate south to southwest, temperatures generally rising slowly all day to reach 13-14 C by late afternoon or early evening.

TUESDAY will see that milder air replaced during the mid-day period by somewhat colder air, after an interval of rain and gusty southwest winds. Temperatures 13-15 C at first will slowly slide down towards 7 C later in the day.

The OUTLOOK for mid-week to later in the week is for breezy, somewhat colder weather with occasional rain and temperatures generally near November normals, 7 to 9 C. Milder again by late in the weekend of 21st-22nd and into the following week, slight chance of colder weather appearing before the month is over but can't really trust the signals at that time range too much.

Eta has made a new home for itself in the Atlantic where it will remain a weak tropical storm until merging with ordinary low pressure near Newfoundland on the weekend. Theta continues a slow plod eastward as mentioned yesterday, no real threat to land. The next storm continues to be monitored in the central Caribbean but has not been designated yet. (will be Tropical Depression 30 then Iota possibly).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few snowflakes in the air, turning to a steady light snow since sunset, and 5-10 cm will accumulate here overnight. Temperatures have been steady near -1 C all day and overnight too.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2020 8:15am

Saturday, 14 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Nov 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal but with a gradually decreasing trend.
-- Rainfalls will be near normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have intervals of cloud and brief sunny breaks, with passing showers and some longer intervals of rain, with rather strong southwest winds at times, veering more westerly by afternoon and evening, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs will reach 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain and strong westerly winds, lows near 5 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and cold with passing showers, some with hail, thunder and higher elevation sleet possible. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY will turn milder again with intervals of light rain mostly around mid-day to late afternoon. Lows 1-3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will be quite mild with occasional rain, southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, temperatures steady 12 to 14 C, falling slowly after mid-afternoon.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, cool and breezy, highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue partly cloudy and rather cold with occasional showers, highs near 7 C.

The pattern for the rest of November will likely be quite unsettled with some very windy intervals likely, temperatures oscillating between 5 and 10 C.

Tropical Storm Iota has not changed much in the past day but will likely strengthen to hurricane intensity within a day or two. It will remain in the vicinity of Nicaragua and Honduras. Theta meanwhile is said to be weakening and may die out slowly by Monday or Tuesday near Madeira.

My local weather included about 15 cm of snow by morning then occasional light snow and freezing drizzle mixing in with temperatures steady around -1 to 0 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2020 8:29am

Sunday, 15 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 2.5 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal for mid-November (about 20-30 mm in most places).
-- Sunshine will average near normal also (about 2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, and rather cool with passing showers, some rather heavy with hail and thunder possible. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 mm in most places. Highs 8-10 C and winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. A band of stronger winds now affecting the southwest coast will tend to move further north and weaken slightly, but will cause winds to increase by mid-day around Galway Bay and by evening in west Ulster.

TONIGHT will be breezy with passing showers and lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will start out with some dry intervals, a few sunny breaks, then rain will develop with a warm front, with about 5-10 mm expected, with the rain lasting a few hours at any given location as it moves northeast. Temperatures will edge up and reach highest values in late afternoon or evening, 10-13 C. It will then stay very mild all night into Tuesday morning with further light rain at times. Lows of only about 10 C on Monday night.

TUESDAY will be breezy and mild, with a slight cooling trend in Atlantic coastal counties by late in the day, but this will not reach the rest of the country until the overnight hours. Some rain at times, highs near 13 or 14 C and winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, temperatures could reach even higher values in a few parts of the southeast.

WEDNESDAY will become quite windy and colder with squally showers, winds westerly 70-110 km/hr, and possibly higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Temperatures will be steady 6 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will become dry for a time, then rain will return, with milder temperatures, highs near 9 or 10 C.

FRIDAY will be mild with rain and highs near 11 C.

This pattern of alternating mild/rainy and near average/dry intervals will continue indefinitely, it seems, with the next pulses of rain and wind due around Sunday-Monday (22nd-23rd) and later next week, at roughly 2-3 day intervals, as the Atlantic goes to work without letting anyone else into the shop. This is pretty much what our long-range outlook promised through December so no reason to change thinking on that, some chance of more wintry patterns developing in the second half of the coming winter perhaps.

Iota has become a hurricane and will very likely be a major hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday before moving inland over Nicaragua. This time remnants will stay locked into the tropical latitudes. Theta is barely a tropical storm near Madeira, some impacts there tonight and Monday but relatively minor. Theta is going to be sucked into the cold front approaching Ireland Tuesday night and nothing will be left of it by the time that reaches France but the energy may make it a stronger front. Weather prospects are good for today's final round of the Masters as high pressure stays close, a front is going to reach Augusta overnight with rain then, but no impacts on the golfing day even if they run later than planned.

My local weather on Saturday started cloudy and ended sunny by afternoon, with temperatures peaking at about +1 C but dropping well below freezing overnight thanks to our remaining 15-20 cm snow pack. We are expecting some more snow later today as a system moves in from the Pacific, then a slight thaw with sleet on Monday and some melting likely by Tuesday as temperatures here edge up to around 5 C. That will not last very long before freezing levels drop below our elevation again.

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2020 8:55am

Monday, 16 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most regions, possibly a bit above normal in west Munster.
-- Sunshine will be near normal, in this rather cloudy part of the year.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... Some bright spells to start in north and east, followed by overcast skies and rain arriving mid-day, already moving into west Munster this morning. This band of rain is a warm front and will bring 5-10 mm amounts, lasting about 3-6 hours as it moves through. Temperatures will slowly rise to about 10-12 C and stay there once the rain ends this evening, with fog rather widespread by then. Some coastal flooding is possible in moderate south to southwest winds (high tides associated with new moon).

TONIGHT ... Murky and mild with fog, rain or drizzle at times, moderate south to southwest winds, temperatures steady around 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional rain, drizzle and hill fog widespread, highs 13 to 15 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. About 5-10 mm rainfalls expected.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, turning cooler with passing squally showers likely. Winds veering to west then northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, except 80-110 km/hr in exposed coastal counties of northwest. Temperatures steady at first 8-10 C then slowly falling to 3-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Back to milder southwest winds and occasional light rain, lows 1-4 C and highs 8-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, showers or intervals of rain likely. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mostly milder than average in a persistent southwesterly flow, just the occasional cooler day after cold fronts pass but not staying cold very long at any given time, and with a tendency for more unsettled and perhaps even stormy conditions later in the month. Temperatures mostly in the 6-10 C range sometimes a bit higher in warm sectors ahead of cold fronts.

Hurricane Iota has (as expected) strengthened to a cat-4 storm approaching eastern Nicaragua today. Theta has become extra-tropical and almost died out entirely northwest of Madeira.

My local weather on Sunday with temperatures around 1-2 C was mostly cloudy with some wet snow at times in the morning, leaving a rather slushy top-up of 5 cms on the cleared roads and sidewalks and pressing down the existing snow pack elsewhere, unfortunately we have a brief thaw coming with a messy mixture turning to rain later Monday, then a freeze, so it will be a bit of a nightmare here by Tuesday but it's nothing out of the ordinary in the mountains in early winter season. Sooner or later it will be cold enough to stay "all snow" for a while then we get those nice clear crisp days for a few weeks before the spring thaw sets in.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2020 8:34am

Tuesday, 17 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 17 to 23 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50-75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal (2-2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mainly cloudy and very mild with occasional drizzle, south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, hill fog and mist. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will bring somewhat stronger winds and rain (5-10 mm) with a gradual windshift to west-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows by morning around 7 C although staying very mild especially in Leinster and Munster until after midnight.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and cooler with passing squally showers, and brighter intervals. An interval of very strong winds is likely by late afternoon and evening, with severe gusts possible in exposed western and northern counties. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr most of the day will increase to 80-120 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and to 60-100 km/hr elsewhere, with risk of an interval of severe wind gusts in other areas especially inland north central to central Leinster, during the overnight hours. These very strong winds will veer from west to northwest before they diminish by Thursday morning. Highs on Wednesday around 8 C and temperatures during the strong winds 6-7 C.

THURSDAY will become less windy and there may be a brief dry spell but by afternoon and evening, mild southwest winds will set in again bringing light rain at times, lows of 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and very mild, rather similar to today in fact with drizzle and mist, highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy with passing showers, turning slightly cooler, temperatures steady 9 to 11 C sliding slowly down to about 6 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for somewhat cooler weather to develop, as well as generally rather dry conditions, possibly ending up with a cool southeast wind with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, temperatures generally closer to seasonal normals of 6 to 8 C.

Hurricane Iota reached cat-5 status before hitting the same part of Nicaragua that cat-4 Eta visited a few days ago. November cat-5 hurricanes are very rare, it may be as far back as 1932 to the previous one. The count for the season is now an amazing (or ridiculous) 30/13/6 which is about double what many had predicted in what they thought would be a rather active season. Well ... my local weather produced about 5 cm of wet snow during the day, it is now misty and about 2-3 C with drizzle falling. Hopefully it won't turn to heavier rain as the surface is already quite slushy on top of the 20 cm snow pack we still have.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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