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Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    As you were on the 00z GFS and UKMO. Potentially disruptive snowfall in the west Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Less further east (biggest risk here is on Tuesday as organised bands of showers cross the country).

    Both also dangling the carrot of potentially significant frontal snowfall toward the end of next week but at this range a lot to be resolved.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,377 ✭✭✭NSAman


    Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    NSAman wrote: »
    Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..:)

    Ah right, sure no need for a weather warning for Ireland so!


  • Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Dampsquid


    NSAman wrote: »
    Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..:)


    Imagine if you got that weather in July when no one was prepared for it... that's what it is like here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Try 20 feet of snow as some of our folk are under in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland! Same every winter so they are well used and well prepared...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    If you look carefully you see some subtle changes overnight
    1) Tuesday has become more marginal for the South with proper cold both delayed and shortened in severity. Indeed gfs is kind of alone in forecasting -8 uppers - and it over egged last week's fail by about 2 degrees.
    2) Most are back to over blowing the low on Thursday. Last night's ecm for example had a foot of snow for parts of the West. Now cold rain.
    3) Still no heights to our North other than transitory so the long wait for a decent cold spell goes on...

    So not as you were, more marginal for most of us this morning. BUT still quite a risk for Tuesday so one to watch closely!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes we may get a day that it snows if they predict 3.

    But Kermit says itl snow so thats good


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭ Luke Powerful Molding


    I'm hoping he's wrong. I've to drive the length of the country on Thursday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    How it stands with the current ECM 0Z . To note that this trend has held now for a number of days and if anything it shows the potential for wintry precipitation increasing with more chance of snow if somewhat wet in places especially elevated ground, hills and mountains. 850 hPa temps about -6C to -7C on Tues, bit less on Weds and Thurs but the pressure drops and very low on Thurs , showing 955 hPa off the W coast atm , about 970 hPa overland. A long way off and not included in this thread but the ECM currently showing a right dumping of snow in the W, NW early Thurs , but this is very complex weather by then and very uncertain how it will pan out.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS 06Z soundings showing increased chance for snow accumulations at Sea level in the W / NW Tues evening into Weds .

    W of Ireland

    thcYfAe.png?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Meanwhile icon has it quite marginal on Tuesday, high grounds will get some accumulation. It also shows a band of snow crossing the country on Thursday.one to watch. Uk will get quite a significant amount of snow this week


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    NMB wrote: »
    Few then to many 10 day stepping stones, not screwed - it’s computer models weather and super fun trying to work out what’s happening- lighten up and come up here to the shallows enjoy the surface don’t be so serious


    Forgot to quote artane2000 but I’m replying to him

    By screwed I mean we got nothing despite the great background signals and the failed easterly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    YanSno wrote: »
    Meanwhile icon has it quite marginal on Tuesday, high grounds will get some accumulation. It also shows a band of snow crossing the country on Thursday.one to watch. Uk will get quite a significant amount of snow this week

    These rarely work out for most of the country save for the far north/north west. Anyway hope for the best!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yes we may get a day that it snows if they predict 3.

    But Kermit says itl snow so thats good

    You'll get Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday.:P Northwest particularly well positioned. Don't want to go in to what happens on Thursday because it's too fluid and may need a separate thread depending on how things evolve and how busy this one gets.

    In response to JS it's important not to focus too much attention on the temperature profile at elevation here - with low thickness in the 1,000 - 500 mb range those temperatures are progged to be at a lower elevation than normal so there is a real compensation effect.

    I wouldn't worry too much about that.

    Jeez ya'll need to relax and chill out :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Just to divert for a brief moment there could be some wintry showers and a few flakes overnight. Maybe a surprise dusting for some in the morning?

    19012706_2606.gif

    19012706_2606.gif

    19012706_2606.gif

    19012706_2606.gif

    Ninja snow is best snow :cool:


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    “Ninja snow is best snow :cool:”


    :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Just figured out how to generate the soundings on Meteociel.

    Can anyone explain the two large inversions in temperature near the surface, and what they mean please?

    sondagearpegefr_53.4_-6.3_90_0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Just figured out how to generate the soundings on Meteociel.

    Can anyone explain the two large inversions in temperature near the surface, and what they mean please?

    sondagearpegefr_53.4_-6.3_90_0.png

    Your coordinates were switched around. I've plotted them correctly now (I assume you were looking at Ireland) and here it is. The ARPEGE has much lower resolution far away from France (your coordinates were south of the Equator, in the Indian Ocean).

    sondagearpegefr_-6.3_53.4_90_0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    D'oh, thanks. In my defence Latitude and Longitude are normally presented the correct order. :rolleyes:

    Not very reassuring for any white stuff based on the above.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Just to show how the cold GFS bias in a northerly, here it is alongside the ICON (850 hPa temp and geopotential).

    Note how much further south the -5 and especially the -10 °C isotherms are advected with the GFS compared to the ICON. This is the classic cold bias and the reason why a couple of degrees should be added to reflect reality.

    GFS left, ICON right.

    MONDAY 00Z. Not much difference.
    471343.PNG

    TUESDAY 00Z
    471344.PNG

    TUESDAY 12Z

    471345.PNG


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    D'oh, thanks. In my defence Latitude and Longitude are normally presented the correct order. :rolleyes:

    Not very reassuring for any white stuff based on the above.

    I know, I made the same mistake myself at first. :o


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    might be a chance of sleet or snow in some midland and northern areas later tonight.

    18-574UK.GIF?26-6

    Tomorrow looks mostly dry in Leinster, then some rain on Monday. Best chance of seeing snowflakes in the east looks to be Tuesday evening. Looks very marginal again after Tuesday.

    81-574UK.GIF?26-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Gonzo wrote: »
    might be a chance of sleet or snow in some midland and northern areas later tonight.

    18-574UK.GIF?26-6

    Even the GFS sounding only shows snow above around 300 metres tonight, so I'm not sure exactly how those charts are generated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Even the GFS sounding only shows snow above around 300 metres tonight, so I'm not sure exactly how those charts are generated.

    It wouldn’t be ninja snow if we knew it was coming!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,098 ✭✭✭highdef


    Even the GFS sounding only shows snow above around 300 metres tonight, so I'm not sure exactly how those charts are generated.

    Does the sounding relate to whether snow is falling @ 300m or whether it is settling? I'm guessing the former but hoping you could clarify. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    highdef wrote: »
    Does the sounding relate to whether snow is falling @ 300m or whether it is settling? I'm guessing the former but hoping you could clarify. :)

    Falling. The sounding for pretty uch your area shows more sleety slop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Good start to the early evening with the 12z icon keeping the low on Monday night further North. Chances of a spell of more prolonged sleet/snow across the very South. Then early Wednesday another disturbance going through the country bringing possibly heavy snow!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    Will it snow in the Dublin 4 area on Tuesday does anyone know?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GFS-P is showing widespread heavy snow for Tuesday from south Dublin to Limerick and southwards. The track of this low pressure will be crucial and could change quite a bit. If this tracks further north, rain would be more likely across the south, if it tracks further south, many places staying dry, until sleet and snow showers later in the day.

    78-574PUK.GIF?26-6

    The GFS-P also showing plenty of snow across the country on Wednesday and more on Thursday and Friday. Perhaps the GFS-P is totally going overboard on the snow potential for Ireland over the next 6 days. Thursday and Friday is also very far away in terms of what could happen, so not much point spending too much time on those days just yet.

    The operational GFS has Ireland missing out on that low pressure system on Tuesday with rain passing to our south. and wintry showers across the country later in the day.

    As for Thursday/Friday the GFS has a marginal mix of rain and sleet across the country with hill snow.

    If the GFS-P proves correct (which I think is unlikely), then there is a chance for disruptive snow in parts of Ireland from Tuesday onwards.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The GFS-P is showing widespread heavy snow for Tuesday from south Dublin to Limerick and southwards. The track of this low pressure will be crucial and could change quite a bit. If this tracks further north, rain would be more likely across the south, if it tracks further south, many places staying dry, until sleet and snow showers later in the

    The GFS-P also showing plenty of snow across the country on Wednesday and more on Thursday and Friday. Perhaps the GFS-P is totally going overboard on the snow potential for Ireland over the next 6 days. Thursday and Friday is also very far away in terms of what could happen, so not much point spending too much time on those days just yet.

    The operational GFS has Ireland missing out on that low pressure system on Tuesday with rain passing to our south. and wintry showers across the country later in the day.

    As for Thursday/Friday the GFS has a marginal mix of rain and sleet across the country with hill snow.

    If the GFS-P proves correct (which I think is unlikely), then there is a chance for disruptive snow in parts of Ireland from Tuesday onwards.

    I think i’ll wait for the ECM! Hopefully it shows something similar.


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