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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    damino wrote: »
    If sunspot numbers have increased recently but the activity from each sunspot still quite subdued will this have a knock-on effect with this winter?

    This is what I was trying to figure out as well. 10 - 12 sunspots on the visible solar disk at the moment, but only 2 of them are really that active.

    So even though the sunspot count is increasing, the sunspots themselves are fairly quiet, I was wondering was that just unique for this current cycle, or is it a normal thing.

    I must do a bit more researching. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    The answer is back in the thread.look for the Gauss table of penn and living ston and their research.sorry for the short answer but gotta go




  • http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL049811.shtml

    The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the Sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

    The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R2L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number RG and heliospheric modulation potential Φ for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For RG and Φ, R2L(t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t ≈ 4 and ≈ 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number RZ is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean RG are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.




  • Another paper that may be of interest.

    http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange111.html


    [SIZE=+1][SIZE=+3]The Forthcoming Grand Minimum of Solar Activity[/SIZE] [SIZE=+2]

    S. Duhau, Ph.D.1, and C. de Jager, Ph.D.2,
    [/SIZE] [SIZE=+1]
    1Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad de Buenos Aires, 1428, Bs. As. Argentina.
    2Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, The Netherlands.



    [/SIZE]
    [/SIZE] [SIZE=+1] Abstract [/SIZE] We summarize recent findings about periodicities in the solar tachocline and their physical interpretation. These lead us to conclude that solar variability is presently entering into a long Grand Minimum, this being an episode of very low solar activity, not shorter than a century. A consequence is an improvement of our earlier forecast of the strength at maximum of the present Schwabe cycle (#24). The maximum will be late (2013.5), with a sunspot number as low as 55.

    PS: the link has an annoying hop to amazon every few minutes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    so activity is decreasing again, is it? and is this all good for coming winter and future winters being cold?


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  • bb1234567 wrote: »
    so activity is decreasing again, is it? and is this all good for coming winter and future winters being cold?
    Not exactly, this cycle is still getting stronger, it's just that more information is being published predicting that future cycles will continue to be weaker than those of the past 80 years or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Not exactly, this cycle is still getting stronger, it's just that more information is being published predicting that future cycles will continue to be weaker than those of the past 80 years or so.

    great so atleast higher chance of more cold winters in future ,which is good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    The sun has flatlined!

    6527125831_b4f859b6bc_z.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    No wonder its dark!




  • muckish wrote: »
    The sun has flatlined!

    6527125831_b4f859b6bc_z.jpg
    Is it broke???

    What is should look like, anyway sunspot count is still low for this time of the cycle.
    Sunspot number: 60
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 16 Dec 2011

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 0 days
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    Since 2004: 821 days
    Typical Solar Min: 486 days
    Updated 16 Dec 2011


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The Recession has hit production in the Sun too, it seems..... :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Su Campu wrote: »
    The Recession has hit production in the Sun too, it seems..... :pac:


    What is it down to now?

    Also what is it meant to be at this point of the cycle?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Lucreto wrote: »
    What is it down to now?

    Also what is it meant to be at this point of the cycle?

    This post from last year show alot.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68625522&postcount=277
    Take special notice of the AP index graph,Dropped like a stone again.,They are live graphs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes the K indices have flatlined again from certain ground-based magnetometers:

    k-index.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    would solar activity now be lower than this time last year?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    would solar activity now be lower than this time last year?

    Click the link i just posted 2up,AP is on a par while sunspot numbers have risen.Still very little activity though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,621 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The lack of activity seems to reflect what Ian Elliot has been saying.

    here's a good article on sunspots for anyone new to this thread
    http://www.economist.com/node/18833483


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Bit peakier looking than predicted in recent months. Mind you it could all be smoothed out within another few months.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

    sunspot.gif
    f10.gif




  • Today's figures are around the 100 value according to spaceweather.com
    Sunspot number: 104
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 30 Dec 2011

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 0 days
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    Since 2004: 821 days
    Typical Solar Min: 486 days
    Updated 30 Dec 2011

    Still way lower at this point than in previous cycles as seen by this chart.
    Active%20Region%20Count.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    An update from NASA on the current Solar Cycle

    hathaway_may2012.jpg?w=640&h=480

    Source
    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

    The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Quick someone find the weather for 1910-1920!


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    Have not posted in ages. This so called summer feels like late autumn. Anyway has the low level sunspot activity effected our summer? There are no reports off sunspots, yet we're suppose to be max sunspot activity.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    mike65 wrote: »
    Quick someone find the weather for 1910-1920!

    http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1900_1949.htm#1910_1919


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    damino wrote: »
    Have not posted in ages. This so called summer feels like late autumn. Anyway has the low level sunspot activity effected our summer? There are no reports off sunspots, yet we're suppose to be max sunspot activity.

    We seem to be getting longer patterns of weather, the Azores high hanging around for ages last winter keeping us warmer while the rest of Europe froze. These constant cycles of lows that seem to just keep coming so far this "summer".

    I seem to remember it used to be a week of rain, a week of sun, another few days of rain and then a few days of sun, not these extremely long patterns of weather we're going through at the moment.

    I don't know if all this relates to what's going on with the low activity on the sun at the moment, but somethings definitely not "normal" about the weather at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Jamstec(jap resherch) have done a lot of resherch into this,thy take sunspot activity into account when doing there long range forcast there current one looks very cold for his winter ,they also said that this summer would be cold and wet ,they have had high sucess rats in the past with there long rang forcast and look to be corect about our summer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,621 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    If Jamstec are correct, I'll have to get back there in time for Winter 2012/13:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    If Jamstec are correct, I'll have to get back there in time for Winter 2012/13:D
    Be carefull the fires of hell might freeze over before then:D

    james madden will feel a lot happyer when he reads there long range forcast.;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    1912 (Summer): NOTABLY WET, COOL & DULL

    http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/cl....htm#1910_1919

    Nothing new there. :rolleyes:.




  • Just for the record
    spaceweather.com
    Sunspot number: 13
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 21 Jun 2012

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 0 days
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    Since 2004: 821 days
    Typical Solar Min: 486 days
    Updated 21 Jun 2012

    Lowest sunspot number for a while.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭morticia2


    Watching Tony Robinson's programme on historic climate change on Discovery recently; a run of wet summers apparently preceded the start of the mini ice age starting in 1315. Apparently this caused famine in England at least owing to crop failure. Does anyone know about winters from 1315 onwards? I guess that predates any weather records such as the CET, but there may be written records. For the records, I guess our current run of soggy/ cold summers now dates back to 2007


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