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28-09-2010, 17:15   #31
pauldry
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40mph will be lively enough gusting to 50mph at times on exposed coasts. I live on an exposed coast.
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28-09-2010, 17:21   #32
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12Z GFS has a less intense low, further away from us. Weaker winds and less precip on this run. Second low is more intense but not very close to us.

Fun to see how much the models change.
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28-09-2010, 17:58   #33
 
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Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
Really don't think this Worth even keeping an eye on fokes... The centre of low seems too far away from us to cause any action.

Next time hopefully!
Hopefully!

although in fairness the thread is only dealing with the generally more unsettled outlook that is forecast. Specifics will always be hard to pin point under these type of set ups. No harm in discussing them though because as Maq rightly claimed in an earlier post, there is little else of interest on the weather front at the moment.

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12Z GFS has a less intense low, further away from us. Weaker winds and less precip on this run. Second low is more intense but not very close to us.

Fun to see how much the models change.
Just flicked through the run and yes, there is little of note in it, but one encouraging trend is that the GFS seems to want to keep us under moderately zonal set up right up to FI:


Last edited by Deep Easterly; 28-09-2010 at 18:09. Reason: My spelling really is crap!
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28-09-2010, 19:41   #34
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Ye ur right....its been very boring out there lately!
I just dont like gettin my hopes up, ya know?
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28-09-2010, 21:00   #35
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12Z ECM isn't too interesting really.

12Z UKMO, NOGAPS & GEM show a second low that might become more interesting in future runs?
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28-09-2010, 22:17   #36
 
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I like the UKMO 12z 120hrs chart:



Not altogether disimilar to the situation that was to lead onto the 'great strom' over the south of the UK in 1987:

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File Type: gif Rukm1201.gif (53.1 KB, 271 views)
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28-09-2010, 22:37   #37
 
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The GFS has a nice scenario for next Thursday (7th). It develops a tropical system over the Bahamas on Friday, which scoots up the eastern US coast, bringing its moisture with it, and interacting with one of the many Arctic cold pools swinging down from Baffin Bay to generate a rapidly intensifying cyclone during Wednesday.

About a 7% chance of things working out exactly that way of course, as that tropical system may not even form, but interesting nonetheless.





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File Type: png storm2.png (47.7 KB, 258 views)

Last edited by Su Campu; 28-09-2010 at 22:39.
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28-09-2010, 23:11   #38
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Updated FAX chart for 120

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28-09-2010, 23:21   #39
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18Z GFS doesn't look much different for Thursday night / Friday morning.

At 120 it seems to be showing the same low as the UKMO/GEM/NOGAPS in roughly the same area. This wasn't the case on the 12Z run so there is improving chances of something to look for around Sunday/Monday.

Further into FI then its showing another system on Tuesday.

Last edited by maquiladora; 28-09-2010 at 23:27.
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28-09-2010, 23:22   #40
 
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Very unusual to have the Fax forecast based entirely on the UKMO run so far out, as usually it tends to consider output from other models such as the ECM etc to get a sense of longer term trend.

Perhaps they are onto something??
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28-09-2010, 23:28   #41
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Id be a bit more wary if the low were to develop to the South of us. I think then it may gather moisture and energy and bring stronger gales and maybe some storminess to some parts - prob England though
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28-09-2010, 23:30   #42
 
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Very unusual to have the Fax forecast based entirely on the UKMO run so far out, as usually it tends to consider output from other models such as the ECM etc to get a sense of longer term trend.
??? What do you mean? Isn't that particular chart above just the UKMO FAX chart based on that model's output? There are others like the ECMWF, German, etc. but I don't think any one chart is based on more than one model. I stand to be corrected though.

http://www2.wetter3.de/fax.html
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28-09-2010, 23:45   #43
 
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??? What do you mean? Isn't that particular chart above just the UKMO FAX chart based on that model's output?

http://www2.wetter3.de/fax.html
Isn't that what I just said The UK fax charts are human considered and produced, and not necessarly entirely based on the UKMO, but what the forecasters in the UK met office consider the be the most likely outcome from a number of runs.

Of course, I can't prove this via a link but I have read this many times before in the past; but this may well be just learned ignorance though...
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29-09-2010, 07:46   #44
 
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Isn't that what I just said The UK fax charts are human considered and produced, and not necessarly entirely based on the UKMO, but what the forecasters in the UK met office consider the be the most likely outcome from a number of runs.

Of course, I can't prove this via a link but I have read this many times before in the past; but this may well be just learned ignorance though...
No I'm sure you're right, I just thought the FAX charts were each model's output in a black and white shipping format suitable for faxing, I didn't know there was human input based on several models.

Ya learn something new every day!
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29-09-2010, 08:59   #45
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This seems like a good explanation of the UKMO FAX charts :


UKMO Exeter Charts as they should be called (since Bracknell closed several yrs ago) are derived chiefly from the UKMO Global Model but can be modified towards other solutions by the Medium Range Forecasters at Exeter. They are therefore known as the "issued Medium Range Charts" which may or may not mirror the Global Model itself.


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