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18-10-2020, 00:42   #7516
Vestiapx
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Yes you are correct to say that we don't know the full fall out of the economic crash. If it is short and sharp then there will probably be no impact on the housing market.

If it is a slow then the probability of a implosion in the financial market increases.
What if they print money ?
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18-10-2020, 00:46   #7517
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Originally Posted by Vestiapx View Post
What if they print money ?
There is a limit to the amount of money they print and history has thought us that lessons in relation to this.
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18-10-2020, 00:51   #7518
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https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...k-october-2020

The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue into 2021 but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve.

Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022. The medium-term projections also assume that economies will experience scarring from the depth of the recession and the need for structural change, entailing persistent effects on potential output. These effects include adjustment costs and productivity impacts for surviving firms as
they upgrade workplace safety, the amplification of the shock via firm bankruptcies, costly resource reallocation across sectors, and discouraged workers’ exit from the workforce. The scarring is expected to compound forces
that dragged productivity growth lower across many economies in the years leading up to the pandemic—relatively slow investment growth weighing on physical capital accumulation, more modest improvements in
human capital, and slower efficiency gains in combining
technology with factors of production.
I think for Ireland's case (not listed there) there is the shock of Brexit to consider as well. Odds are 50/50 on no deal right now.
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18-10-2020, 00:53   #7519
Geuze
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Originally Posted by Vestiapx View Post
What if they print money ?
If?

QE started years ago.

The ECB started QE in 2014.

They have created billions of euro to buy financial assets.
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18-10-2020, 00:55   #7520
Geuze
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Originally Posted by Vestiapx View Post
What if they print money ?

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/imple.../index.en.html


The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) is part of a package of non-standard monetary policy measures that also includes targeted longer-term refinancing operations, and which was initiated in mid-2014 to support the monetary policy transmission mechanism and provide the amount of policy accommodation needed to ensure price stability.
It consists of the
  • corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP)
  • public sector purchase programme (PSPP)
  • asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP)
  • third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3)

APP net purchases, by programme

Between October 2014 and December 2018 the Eurosystem conducted net purchases of securities under one or more of the asset purchase programmes. During the net asset purchase phase, monthly purchase pace averaged:

€60 billion from March 2015 to March 2016
€80 billion from April 2016 to March 2017
€60 billion from April 2017 to December 2017
€30 billion from January 2018 to September 2018
€15 billion from October 2018 to December 2018

Between January 2019 and October 2019, the Eurosystem fully reinvested the principal payments from maturing securities held in the APP portfolios. The Governing Council aimed to maintain the size of its cumulative net purchases under each constituent programme of the APP at their respective levels as at the end of December 2018.

On 12 September 2019 the ECB Governing Council decided that “net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November 2019. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.” On 12 March 2020 the ECB Governing Council decided to add “a temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion” until the end of 2020.
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18-10-2020, 00:55   #7521
Geuze
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Originally Posted by Vestiapx View Post
What if they print money ?
Here is the amount of money created each month by the ECB, used to buy financial assets:

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18-10-2020, 10:17   #7522
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Houses in rural have continued to rise over the last 3-5 years. They were slower to recover than Dublin prices so there prices reflect that compared to 4years ago.

Repayments would be about 1220/month over 25years on a 5year fixed rate. That is 38 percent of take home pay. It a bit above what is recommended however on low wage this will always e an issue.

Will houses prices crash Who knows. But those that are most bearish on this consider that WFH will attract people to houses outside larger urban areas. How this will effect rural houses prices is the question
Thanks.
Would it be safee over 30 years.
Also more interest paid.
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18-10-2020, 10:47   #7523
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I think for Ireland's case (not listed there) there is the shock of Brexit to consider as well. Odds are 50/50 on no deal right now.
I wonder if COVID has mediated the shock of no deal.

By this I mean, has alot of the negative already been done eg decreased tourists, decreased consumption of Irish products in UK

Anyone know?
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18-10-2020, 12:01   #7524
OwlsZat
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I wonder if COVID has mediated the shock of no deal.

By this I mean, has alot of the negative already been done eg decreased tourists, decreased consumption of Irish products in UK

Anyone know?
I thought it was just about our beef/dairy exports. 85% go to the UK. We will need to reduce the prices in a currently loss making sector.
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18-10-2020, 12:04   #7525
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I thought it was just about our beef/dairy exports. 85% go to the UK. We will need to reduce the prices in a currently loss making sector.
Loss making?

There is billions being made.

Agri will be hit hard by a no deal Brexit but the real money will be lost in services.
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18-10-2020, 14:34   #7526
Springy Turf
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Loss making?

There is billions being made.

Agri will be hit hard by a no deal Brexit but the real money will be lost in services.
By who? Not the farmers - they are on subsidies to make ends meet.
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18-10-2020, 16:41   #7527
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Anyone know when we are likely the see more new developments finished in dublin? I see a lot of signs for new builds as I travel around Dublin but progress seems slow. The HTB scheme appears quite lucrative but I feel I could be waiting a long time and information is hard to come by for these new developments.
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18-10-2020, 18:14   #7528
jgt3
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Originally Posted by Springy Turf View Post
By who? Not the farmers - they are on subsidies to make ends meet


True, but the industry as a whole is making cash hand over fist. Really a rigged system we built.

Last edited by jgt3; 18-10-2020 at 19:18.
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18-10-2020, 18:45   #7529
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True, but the industry as a whole is making cash hand over fist. Really a rigged system we built.
Do you work for free then?
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18-10-2020, 18:56   #7530
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Do you work for free then?

Certainly not working for free. Don't know where anyone asked for that.
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