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13-07-2020, 10:47   #46
Villa05
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Originally Posted by cnocbui
Profit taking hardly works if you are living in the asset. If it's an investment property, you might want to line up an alternative investment with equal or greater returns. Taking into account the CGT, I think you might be struggling.
CGT does not apply to a private residence,
A falling market would benefit a person upsizing


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Originally Posted by awec
If someone can sell their house for 100k profit, why on earth would they sell it for less profit than that?.
That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell

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Originally Posted by Bass Reeves
Why would you profit take and pay 33% tax on any profit accrued. As there are costs involved, between solicitors and estate agents along with tax you could be looking at a 40% cost on a 100k profit.
Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
- millions
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13-07-2020, 10:53   #47
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CGT does not apply to a private residence,
A falling market would benefit a person upsizing




That is not what I said, with the outlook for property negative in the short term and medium to long term increasingly uncertain. Would some investors consider it a good time to sell



Good points but remember one of the measures introduced to kick-start the market after the last collapse was CGT exemption if you held the property for 7 years or more. With close to 50% of all sales since 2009 not requiring a mortgage there must be alot of investors sitting on significant profits.

People forget that 1 of the lessons from the last crash was that today your worth millions tomorrow you could be worth
- millions

I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.
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13-07-2020, 10:59   #48
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I know a fair few who want to sell now. But they cant.
Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?
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13-07-2020, 11:07   #49
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I find this thread has a lot of this.

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Person A: People will no longer be willing to pay such a premium to live in the city if they don't have to go into the city every day for work.

Person B: But many people love living in the city for city life.
Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.
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13-07-2020, 11:29   #50
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Cannot sell because of tenants/personal circumstances/market conditions? What's the problem?

Cannot get vacant possession to sell.
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13-07-2020, 11:44   #51
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Originally Posted by errlloyd View Post
I find this thread has a lot of this.



Both of these sentences are possibly true, but if person A is correct about that prediction it will have an impact on prices, even if person B is also correct. To put it another way, if one person can demonstrate that demand is going to drop *in any sector* it is sort of useless pointing out that demand will remain static in another sector, you have to demonstrate where there will be an increase to compensate.

These demand changes might be small, but their impact is leveraged. Why? Because supply and demand in property is non linear (or highly inelastic if you like). If demand is 101% of supply it seems like there is nothing on the market, everything is competed for. If demand drops 2% and is less than supply, it will suddenly feel like a buyers market.

What you have left out is the properties of a property. As in you scenario of 80% of the property is not in a location that suits most people , then the demand will be low same goes if the house is in poor condition. At the moment it looks like supply is really poor
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13-07-2020, 11:52   #52
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Id move down the country if i could work from home 5 days a week.
I would only get 3 days per week max so not attractive to me.

The other half will not change the kids schools though. So moving down the country is out for now.
Then there is the whole psychology of moving to another town. I would be ok with it, but other half wouldnt. Therefore thats out for that reason too.


Lots of foreigners who come to work in my company would just go home if the job wasnt in dublin. They will only live in Dublin.
Exactly -there are a lot of factors that impact on making such a move. Age is another one. In my 20's, I'd never have even continanced the notion. I'm in my 30's now and while I still wouldn't do it, the visceral aversion to the idea is definitely not what it was. Maybe in my 40's I'd actually like the idea, who knows. I could definitely see myself making moves when I'm older (50's+) but I'd probably still want to keep an apartment in Dublin while maybe splitting my time with a country cottage somewhere properly isolated and near a nice beach.

You have to get full WFH and agreement from all family members (or at least the adults) in order to move.

Theres a poster above who just said he had decided against buying in Dublin, but when you read the post, what he's decided is commuter belt over small city center house, so not exactly a rural idil.
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13-07-2020, 12:55   #53
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Just because people get the option to WFH it is unlikely that a large number of people will opt to change the location where they live. Yes so e who are renting may opt to move. However it is unlikely that the numbers who do will suddenly effect property prices. As well just because you get the option to WFH your partner/spouse may still be located in Dublin. As well if your skill/ career prospects are Dublin based ( financial services, tech based etc) it would not mean you suddenly up sticks and move to the stick.

Younger people are attracted to Dublin and the lifestyle it unlikely to change. As I posted as well technical difficulty for MN companies with WFH will have to be overcome as well
There is already anecdotal evidence from REAs in both the UK, US and Australia that there is a significant increase in interest in properties in rural towns and the like.

I am astonished it would happen this quickly.

Quote:
Many Welsh towns are experiencing a boost in interest and some agents are on course to break sales records for June.

So far, that interest seems to be driven by people reassessing their lives during the coronavirus pandemic and the realisation that working from home is now a possibility.

Early signs suggest that there is a mini exodus from the bigger cities and parts of Wales are already benefiting, including places like Narberth, Crickhowell, Brecon and Aberdyfi.
https://twnews.co.uk/gb-news/more-pe...work-from-home

Quote:
City buyers seeking to secure a safe haven in the event of further COVID-19 lockdowns are driving a ‘super boom’ in rural real estate.

Inquiries on rural holdings in the southern Gold Coast hinterland and Tweed Shire have risen sharply as buyers act on plans for a pandemic-proof lifestyle.

“There has been a super boom in rural property inquiries,” said Christie’s Prestige Director Alex Caraco.

“We’ve had a 300 to 400 per cent rise during COVID-19 on vacant rural land in the Tallebudgera, Currumbin, Numinbah and Tweed valleys.”
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/c...l-estate-boom/
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13-07-2020, 13:13   #54
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I suspect it's lack of supply and people not putting houses on the market atm for fear of getting a poor price. Im looking in a restricted south dublin area and not one house has been added in one of the more popular areas in the last two weeks apart from one house in very very poor condition for an executor sale. And I honestly think that one is completely over priced but it has had a very busy viewing within 48 hours
Sounding like a broken record but even before Covid-19 a lot of the stuff on the market were either dumps and/or had issues.



Since one of my working assumptions is that buying in Ireland means getting ripped off one way or another, the 10% or so drop in prices I have seen mooted in here is not in itself a reason for me to pull out.
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13-07-2020, 13:14   #55
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Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post
There is already anecdotal evidence from REAs in both the UK, US and Australia that there is a significant increase in interest in properties in rural towns and the like.

I am astonished it would happen this quickly.

https://twnews.co.uk/gb-news/more-pe...work-from-home

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/c...l-estate-boom/

More than likely people getting on the property ladder before this great recession locks them out of it.
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13-07-2020, 16:00   #56
Villa05
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Cannot get vacant possession to sell.
Interesting, pent up demand meets pent up supply meets tighter lending. Add a pandemic plus Brexit
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13-07-2020, 23:38   #57
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I'd just like to add my 2c here, the reason people live in Dublin isn't just because they work there. Easier access to employment is a feature of most capital cities of the world alright, but I could list countless other reasons why it's a more favorable place to live than rural life in Longford or Westmeath. So WFH policies are not imo going to cause an exodus from Dublin and knock-on crash in property prices. Especially people who already have roots in the capital (family, friends, children's schools, etc).
The some of them does not have cars because due with high property rent/car insurance /parking space they cant afford it and travel to work with bike or bus.They are locked down in city because has no transport for traveling from outside city.Bassicaly they are hostages.In serious economy downturn they will be or are hit first and badly because many of them live from wage to wage.They will leave Dublin first or are leaving already.
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14-07-2020, 08:59   #58
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I just read that the government are planning to buy up the excess airbnbs now. Also if they cant buy them they are going to try to get them on 25 year leases.
So they kill the value and earning power of these properties with rules and regulations and then swoop in to buy them cheaper themselves. If thats not market manipulation. I still dont think they will get them as cheap as they think they will.
I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power

I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down

Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units
0 cost to taxpayer

Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit
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14-07-2020, 09:16   #59
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I think you overestimate the Government. Seeing how they spend taxpayers money, it would not surprise me if they increased their value and earning power

I read that they solved the homeless issue by procuring holiday let's at full season price pre covid lock down

Complete and utter stupidity to be buying up airbnb"s. All of them were built as resedintial units. Enforce the law and keep them as resedintial units
0 cost to taxpayer

Airbnb is for the letting of a room in your own house which you live in not a completely empty unit

It looks to me like the problem is going to be that the government buy up or lease all property for social housing in the next few years, leaving very little for normal buyers, but costing the tax payer a fortune.
So not only basically the normal buyer is now bidding against the council, who are increasing prices and to add insult to injury using the normal buyers own money (taxes) to do this.
Pretty soon you wont be able to own a house unless you are given it by the council. Because there will be nothing left for you.
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14-07-2020, 09:27   #60
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It looks to me like the problem is going to be that the government buy up or lease all property for social housing in the next few years, leaving very little for normal buyers, but costing the tax payer a fortune.
So not only basically the normal buyer is now bidding against the council, who are increasing prices and to add insult to injury using the normal buyers own money (taxes) to do this.
Pretty soon you wont be able to own a house unless you are given it by the council. Because there will be nothing left for you.
Councils and cooperations buying existing housing stock adds nothing to supply. Supply is the only thing that will solve the housing crisis. Unless Local Authorities and housing Association's revamp existing stock and build new stock you are still dealing with the same supply. However LA have to be given the power to deal with anti social behaviour and as well with people who damage there housing stock.

If LA start to build numbers those renting to HAP tenants will start to sell up. LA could start to purchase some of these and other will purchase as family homes
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