The Football Tips Thread IV

opr · 29-03-2013 4:51pm

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Cheers Mike,

I'll hold off on this til later so. Looking at the next gen website they seem to leak a good few goals alright. They bet Spurs 3 - 5 in the quarter finals. Villa seem to leak way fewer goals and topped their group, while Sporting came third in their group.

Thanks for the heads up.

Aston Villa were in the same group as Sporting. Sporting topped the group and Aston Villa finished second. The game that Aston Villa beat Sporting was the last group game of the competition when Villa needed to win and Sporting had already qualified, making a few changes so it means next to nothing when looking at the match up.

Sporting should be being priced as if they were Barcelona in Europe as that's what they are in terms of academy football. Aston Villa will provide a sterner test than Liverpool did in the last round but I still expect Sporting will win.

Opr

eh i dunno · 29-03-2013 5:27pm

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/29/england/league-two/northampton-town-fc/torquay-united-fc/1295297/?ICID=HP_MS_46_08

Are Northampton 5/6 bet of the day lads? Won the last ten in a row at home conceding just 3 goals and at home tonight to lowly Torquay who have only won 3 on the road this season

eh i dunno · 29-03-2013 5:35pm

eh i dunno wrote: »

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/29/england/league-two/northampton-town-fc/torquay-united-fc/1295297/?ICID=HP_MS_46_08

Are Northampton 5/6 bet of the day lads? Won the last ten in a row at home conceding just 3 goals and at home tonight to lowly Torquay who have only won 3 on the road this season

Going with a decent size bet on Northampton 5/6 and the following mad accum @ 120/1
Shamrock Rovers @ 7/10
Derry City @ 8/15
Sporting Lisbon Youth @ 10/11
Leicester @ 4/6
Airbus UK Broughton @ 8/15
PSG @ 3/5
Helmond Sport @ 3/10
Caen @ 4/7
Crystal Palace @ 4/5
Preston @ 8/13

TG860 · 29-03-2013 5:36pm

eh i dunno wrote: »

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/29/england/league-two/northampton-town-fc/torquay-united-fc/1295297/?ICID=HP_MS_46_08

Are Northampton 5/6 bet of the day lads? Won the last ten in a row at home conceding just 3 goals and at home tonight to lowly Torquay who have only won 3 on the road this season

Torquay seem to be a bit of bogey team for them.
Look at their H2H record.
Could be a draw.

inforfun · 29-03-2013 5:38pm

I case you wanted to, i doubt you still can, dont take any bets on Veendam.
They were declared bankrupt last monday, have 8 days to appeal but will most likely taken out of the league as of next week.
This weekends match has been postponed.

TG860 · 29-03-2013 5:45pm

Preston v Portsmouth Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks likely.

Unders came in for 6 of their last 7 meetings, and both teams' last 6 matches have all been under 2.5 goals.

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/29/england/league-one/preston-north-end-fc/portsmouth-football-club/1294747/head2head/

1-1 Draw, sweet!

Smithwicks Man · 29-03-2013 5:49pm

PunterAssist wrote: »

Chievo have lost 21% of their home league matches while conceding less than a goal a game and keeping a clean sheet in half of those matches.

Milan have won 35% of their away league matches while keeping 3 clean sheets against Sampdoria (10th), Genoa (17th) and Atalanta (16th).

Milan had 5 of their first team play in world cup qualifiers and others who traveled long distances with their national squads.

That being said Milan are the form team in Italy at the minute but what do you think of Balotelli to score anytime at 2.15 (BetVictor) instead?

Balotelli anytime can still be got @ 2.20 on Paddypower. Definitely represents value as well and is a good bet for those who wish to err on the side of caution. Personally I think Milan will get the win so I'll be taking the wincast but I will also be taking the anytime scorer as well.

The average age of the 5 Milan players that played for Italy midweek was 23.2 years and Malta is not the furthest journey so I don't think fatigue will be too big of an issue.

They will all start against Chievo (Constant could replace De Sciglio depending on how tired he is) and I think Milan have enough of a squad to take Chievo down and with Balotelli in the form of his life I can see him getting on the scoresheet.

PunterAssist · 29-03-2013 7:36pm

I can't remember who it is but isn't there a resident expert on Dutch football on this forum?

There are a few matches this evening in the Eerste Divisie.

Dordrecht are generally priced at 1.57 against Oss.

Dordrecht (15th) have won 1 from their last 8 league matches while Oss have lost just 3 from their last 11 matches.

Why are the odds on Dordrecht so short?

Lasagna Diarra · 29-03-2013 7:56pm

Montpellier to score a goal @ 1.60

same players that will play vs Barcelona, Alex and Van der Wiel in the starting line up, Chantome on the right wing... :pac::pac:

line ups: http://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actualites/Sans-lucas-ni-jallet/360300

and tiny bets on:
Utaka anytime @ 6.00
Charbonnier anytime @ 6.00

mailburner · 29-03-2013 7:56pm

Shane St. wrote: »

Sunderland v Man United

Under 2.5 goals - 4/5 - Sunderland missing Fletcher, United expected

bet of the weekend there I think
I can't find something to double it with im confident about
so might just have to have a decent bet on this instead
think this has utd 1-0 written all over it so a bit on that
for me also at 6s

while im at it a small one on rooney/1-0 at 18/1

inforfun · 29-03-2013 8:36pm

PunterAssist wrote: »

I can't remember who it is but isn't there a resident expert on Dutch football on this forum?

There are a few matches this evening in the Eerste Divisie.

Dordrecht are generally priced at 1.57 against Oss.

Dordrecht (15th) have won 1 from their last 8 league matches while Oss have lost just 3 from their last 11 matches.

Why are the odds on Dordrecht so short?

Bit late but ok.

Cant find any particular reason.
Even the Oss website doesnt mention injuries/suspensions.

Radonman · 29-03-2013 9:19pm

Radonman wrote: »

Two bet of interest for me tomorrow in the Championship
The already well discussed Crystal Palace game - over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 boyles, for a team like Palace whose last 5 home have gone over (Birmingham 3/5 away)i think its a great bet along with overs in the Watford v Burnley game @ 1/1 Boyles - Watford 5/5 at home overs averaging 2.9 goals per game and Burnley's away games are averaging 3.1 goals - also looking at the head to head stats on Soccerway out of their last 7 meeting 6 have gone over 2.5 (5 over 3.5:eek:) - gonna do the double and two in running singles after about 10mins or so:pac:

- its good to be back, missed the overs for the single in the Watford game due to the early goals but got everything else

PunterAssist · 29-03-2013 10:03pm

PunterAssist wrote: »

I can't remember who it is but isn't there a resident expert on Dutch football on this forum?

There are a few matches this evening in the Eerste Divisie.

Dordrecht are generally priced at 1.57 against Oss.

Dordrecht (15th) have won 1 from their last 8 league matches while Oss have lost just 3 from their last 11 matches.

Why are the odds on Dordrecht so short?

Dordrecht 0 - 1 Oss

Strange odds on that one.

Dio On The Doubles · 29-03-2013 11:23pm

opr wrote: »

Aston Villa were in the same group as Sporting. Sporting topped the group and Aston Villa finished second. The game that Aston Villa beat Sporting was the last group game of the competition when Villa needed to win and Sporting had already qualified, making a few changes so it means next to nothing when looking at the match up.

Sporting should be being priced as if they were Barcelona in Europe as that's what they are in terms of academy football. Aston Villa will provide a sterner test than Liverpool did in the last round but I still expect Sporting will win.

Opr

Cheers for that. Just realised I mixed up Villa and Arsenal when checking the group stages results as was looking at both games at the time!. I took Villa in the end but lost the bet as they won but after extra time.

eh i dunno · 30-03-2013 12:28am

eh i dunno wrote: »

http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/29/england/league-two/northampton-town-fc/torquay-united-fc/1295297/?ICID=HP_MS_46_08

Are Northampton 5/6 bet of the day lads? Won the last ten in a row at home conceding just 3 goals and at home tonight to lowly Torquay who have only won 3 on the road this season

get in. Only 1 nil but it will do

PunterAssist · 30-03-2013 12:52am

eh i dunno wrote: »

get in. Only 1 nil but it will do

As Mr. Pacino said it doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile... nice pick.

frat · 30-03-2013 1:38am

Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals. With Liverpool scoring freely at the moment (16 in last 5) and villas defence being so poor this season 1.7 is a must for me and will be having a large single on this. Will also double it up with unders in the united/Sunderland game. Only bets for the weekend!

BaneV26 · 30-03-2013 1:42am

Signing up to Bet365 in the next few weeks. For the sign up offer, it says you have to play through your deposit once to get your bonus. Can this be at any odds? As in, if I deposit €50 and put it on something @1.004 or similar, will I get my bonus after that?

MonkstownHoop · 30-03-2013 1:44am

BaneV26 wrote: »

Signing up to Bet365 in the next few weeks. For the sign up offer, it says you have to play through your deposit once to get your bonus. Can this be at any odds? As in, if I deposit €50 and put it on something @1.004 or similar, will I get my bonus after that?

theres a certain price you have to bet above, it will state this when you sign up

BaneV26 · 30-03-2013 1:45am

MonkstownHoop wrote: »

theres a certain price you have to bet above, it will state this when you sign up

Thanks. Just found it there. Minimum odds of 1.50.

tip74 · 30-03-2013 2:18am

Injuries and suspensions:
Nottingham F. v Brighton
Nottingham F: Lansbury (24/4 m) (doubtful)
Brighton: El-Abd (31/1 d), Bruno (28/1 d), Barnes (31/6 f), Mackail-Smith (29/11 f, top scorer), Hoskins (11/0 f)
pick 1

FC Augsburg v Hannover 96
FC Augsburg: Jentzsch (5/0 d), Philp (4/0 d), Werner (23/4 m)
Hannover 96: Eggimann (19/1 d), Andreasen (4/2 m), da Silva Pinto (23/1 m), Franca (0/0 m), Huszti (21/9 m), Stindl (14/2 m), Diouf (21/10 f, top scorer)
pick 1

Bayern München v Hamburger SV
Bayern München: Badstuber (12/0 d)
Hamburger SV: Lam (3/0 m), Beister (20/3 m), Ilicevic (6/1 m), Jansen (22/0 m), Jiracek (7/0 m), Berg (11/0 f)
pick 1

Livingston FC v Dunfermline
Livingston FC: McNulty (24/6 f) (doubtful), Watson (11/1 d), Ke. Jacobs (12/3 m), Docherty (8/0 d)
Dunfermline: Gallacher (28/0 first goalkeeper), McMillan (27/1 d), Dowie (30/2 d), Jordan (20/1 d), Cardle (25/3 m), Barrowman (22/10 f, top scorer), Kirk (26/4 f) (all left the club)
pick 1

Queen of the South v Brechin City
Queen of the South: McShane (0/0 m)
Brechin City: McLauchlan (19/2 d), Moyes (25/2 d), Brown (18/3 d), Molloy (14/0 m)
pick 1

Manchester City v Newcastle Utd
Manchester City: Rodwell (8/0 m), Richards (3/0 d), Maicon (7/0 d)
Newcastle Utd: Ben Arfa (13/3 m), Tioté (19/0 m), Debuchy (9/0 d), Santon (30/1 d), Coloccini (19/0 d), Haïdara (2/0 d), Harper (4/0 g), R. Taylor (1/0 d), Vuckic (0/ m0), Krul (22/0 g)
pick 1

Levante UD v Sevilla FC
Levante UD: Barkero (23/5 m), Valdo (6/0 m) (both doubtful), P. López (13/0 d), El Zahar (24/2 f), Ballesteros (24/0 d)
Sevilla FC: Trochowski (6/2 m), Campaña (5/0 m)
pick 2

CD Lugo v Xerez CD
CD Lugo: Quiroga (3/1 f), Iván Pérez (8/0 m), Guayre (2/0 f), Javi Rey (0/0 m), Font (19/0 m)
Xerez CD: Íñigo Vélez (7/1 d), José Mari (11/2 f), Ruz (7/0 d), Iago Bouzón (22/0 d), Manu Redondo (14/0 d), Mendoza (27/0 d), Prieto (19/1 d)
pick 1

Real Salt Lake v Seattle Sounders
Real Salt Lake: Morales (0/0 m), Stephenson (3/0 m), Balchan (0/0 d), Saborio (3/3 f) (all doubtful), Salcedo (0/0 d), Grossman (1/0 m), Wingert (0/0 d), Viana (0/0 m)
Seattle Sounders: Ianni (0/0 d)
pick X2

PunterAssist · 30-03-2013 2:31am

BaneV26 wrote: »

Signing up to Bet365 in the next few weeks. For the sign up offer, it says you have to play through your deposit once to get your bonus. Can this be at any odds? As in, if I deposit €50 and put it on something @1.004 or similar, will I get my bonus after that?

Min odds 1.5 - Asian handicaps and Asian Goal Lines don't count.

You have to bet your initial deposit and bonus 3 times before you can withdraw your bonus.

E.G) Deposit €200 and immediately get another €200 as a bonus so that your balance reads €400, all of which is available to bet with from the start.

In order to withdraw your €200 bonus you must wager at least €1,200 (€400 x3).

I would advise you to wait until you can deposit the full €200 as your first deposit to get the full bonus.

Dio On The Doubles · 30-03-2013 10:04am

I'm considering one main bet for this weekend as I don't like a lot of fixtures this weekend particularly the premiership.

Treble of

Real Zaragoza v Real Madrid
Over 2.5 goals
Villa v Liverpool
Over 2.5 goals
Chelsea v united
Over 2.5 goals

Pays just under 3/1 and considering decent stake on this. Madrid have their away mojo back and won 4 0 at bernabeau. Last year it was 0 6 away to Zaragoza.

In the other two matches my original idea was BTTS but changed it to over 2.5 for better odds because I really think its as much of a possibility.

Anyone with any input much appreciated.

For a smaller bet ill add Celta Vigo Barca BTTS and BTTS in the Gurther Furth game also.

Alpha Dog 1 · 30-03-2013 10:08am

Man united in the early kick off for me today.
I know they will likely rest a good few players today with the match on Monday, but even there second string should have too much for a god awful Sunderland side who are missing some key players aswel.

Will lump on the 7/10, hopefully it will sort me out for the weekend.

Lasagna Diarra · 30-03-2013 10:57am

Going big on Under 2.5 in Sheriff vs Dacia (Moldovan league) tomorrow @ 1.55

the 2 best teams in Moldova... games between these 2 teams almost always go under 2.5 and often end as a draw.

Just have a look at their head 2 head stats: http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/31/moldova/divizia-naional/fc-sheriff-tiraspol/fc-dacia-chisinau/1459965/head2head/

Colonialboy · 30-03-2013 11:03am

eh i dunno wrote: »

get in. Only 1 nil but it will do

thanks eh I dunno.... Northhampton 5/6
eh I did.....

Professional Griefer · 30-03-2013 11:08am

Big on United this morning.

Lasagna Diarra · 30-03-2013 11:55am

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/azerbaijan/premier-league/turan-ravan-1605141/#1X2;2

the game starts in 4 min!!!

The Volt · 30-03-2013 11:57am

Man Utd (-1) Asian Handicap 11/10 on PP. lumping on this

mike65 · 30-03-2013 12:09pm

Cowdenbeath vs. Partick Thistle are just flying home and away on a 10 game unbeaten run (9 wins) and +43 g/d for the season. the home side are quite good when at home so maybe a +2.5 goal line if you prefer an alternative to the away win bet

+2.5 1.66 v away win 1.53

The Football Tips Thread IV

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