[whisky_galore]

Originally Posted by Stovepipe

Germany had plenty of sympathisers in Ireland. When pows were given parole to go to Dublin to study, and lot of people were eager to host them. If a German with connections had escaped, it wouldn't have been impossible to hide in the population. The ports were tightly controlled so access to ships was difficult but not impossible. It wasn't until later in the war and rationing began to bite that public sympathy for Germany faded.

Getting off the island is still a problem. Afaik no one made a home run to Germany from Ireland during the conflict. Why would you want to anyway? Good food (compared to German rationing), no one shooting at you, opportunities for study, pubs, dances and women? Great place to sit it out.

You would need to be one deranged committed Nazi to want to escape especially later in the war.

[Edgware]

No sense glorifying Collins and saying that he would not have entered WW2. ( he signed a Treaty agreeing to let Britain have the Ports so getting them back was not his priority) We just dont know what he would have done in the 20s and we could have had a decade of civil war but this time between the hopelessly armed Free State against a British backed U.V.F.
If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.
Its hard to estimate the human cost but it would probably run into tens of thousands

[AMKC]

Originally Posted by whisky_galore

Getting off the island is still a problem. Afaik no one made a home run to Germany from Ireland during the conflict. Why would you want to anyway? Good food (compared to German rationing), no one shooting at you, opportunities for study, pubs, dances and women? Great place to sit it out.

You would need to be one deranged committed Nazi to want to escape especially later in the war.

Because they were brainwashed and it's all they knew.

Originally Posted by Edgware

No sense glorifying Collins and saying that he would not have entered WW2. ( he signed a Treaty agreeing to let Britain have the Ports so getting them back was not his priority) We just dont know what he would have done in the 20s and we could have had a decade of civil war but this time between the hopelessly armed Free State against a British backed U.V.F.
If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.
Its hard to estimate the human cost but it would probably run into tens of thousands

If that had of been the case the some of us but mostly I would say people who parents lived in the cities at the time might not be here now as there parents might not have made it. Only one way to know do and that is to visit an alternate reality but to do that we need to find out how to first.

[Peregrinus]

Originally Posted by Edgware

. . . If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.

Marshall Plan aid was distributed witout regard to former belligerent status - former allied countries, former axis countries and former neutral countries were all offered it on similar terms. We did receive Marshall Plan grants — a total of $133 million which, per capita, works out at about 88% of what the UK received. We might have got a little bit more if we had joined the allies, but not much. The countries that got very much more generous funding than we did were mainly neutral countries that had been invaded and occupied by the Axis — Denmark, the Netherlands, Greece. The most generously-treated country was Iceland, a neutral country invaded and occupied by the Allies.

[rock22]

Originally Posted by AMKC

Such a pity that De Velera was not shot in 1916. Some lucky alternate reality got that one. We unfortunatly had to suffer him for many more decades to come.i am glad it was not De Velera that declared a Republic. It should have been Micheal Collins that got that honour but because of the civil war and some of De Veleras goones killing Collins he never did. Do I think Collins would have let the British use bases in Ireland during WW2 no not a hope not unless there was a big payment for it and I doubt there would have been as every cent Britain had then was going to the war effort. Its not like it would have benefitted Britain much anyway. Maybe a few naval bases on the west coast might have but that's about it.

I think you have a very unique view the De Valera/Collins relationship with the British.
But just to speculate. If De Valera had died and Collins lived then the Churchill would have been quick to remind him,. i.e. Collins, that he succeeded in the civil war only thanks to British guns. And it is now pay back time .The British did try to pressurise De Valera so they would certainly pressurise Collins.
What the British wanted most were our ports although they would have probably developed airports as well to help in the war in the Atlantic.

We would probably have suffered some air attacks. But as that would have required diverting Luftwaffe planes away from the UK we might have escaped.

Thankfully we had De Valera at the time to ensure we could remain neutral.

[breezy1985]

I don't understand why people are assuming it would be Collins in charge during the war if De Valera was dead. Collins would have lead CnG/FG who probably would still have lost the elections after 10+ years in charge and someone would have emerged to challenge them. I'm not sure who maybe Aiken, Lemass or most likely O'Kelly but someone would have gotten the better of CnG

[Larbre34]

When the US entered the War in Dec 41, Ireland should have declared war on Germany and facilitated US and Canadian forces (and free French, Polish etc) to conduct operations against the Axis powers, all in exchange for reunification of the island.

Ireland as a base would have enabled significant force projection for the War in the north and mid Atlantic, and would likely have turned the tide against the Nazi submarine Wolf packs and enabled faster build up of US food and weapons products in Europe. Who knows, they could have taken a year or more off the War.

[Peregrinus]

Originally Posted by breezy1985

I don't understand why people are assuming it would be Collins in charge during the war if De Valera was dead. Collins would have lead CnG/FG who probably would still have lost the elections after 10+ years in charge and someone would have emerged to challenge them. I'm not sure who maybe Aiken, Lemass or most likely O'Kelly but someone would have gotten the better of CnG

Oh, gosh, we're into historical what-ifs here, which are fun but pointless. If Collins had survived and Dev have died we can't assume that there would ahve been any elections to lose; on the pro-Treaty side, Collins might well have become Ireland's Mussolini, and we could have had an effective one-party state by the mid-20s. On the other side, with no Dev, even if Ireland wasn't a one-party state by then, who's to say that Fianna Fáil or an FF equivalent would have split from SF and entered the Dáil in 1927, or ever?

[scottigael]

Considering the north strand bombing and how destructive a single bomber was I think neutrality was to our benefit our towns and cities would have suffered immensely had we joined.

However if Churchill had gone ahead and offered the north as he did (drunkenly allegedly) once or twice along with a few dozen anti aircraft guns it may have been worth it

[spring lane jack]

Dev could have lost it altogether and joined the Axis. Imagine the big stupid head on him next to Il Duce and the Fuhrer. The Brits would have absolutely flipped and probably would have occupied us again. We would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world.

[Peregrinus]

Originally Posted by Larbre34

When the US entered the War in Dec 41, Ireland should have declared war on Germany and facilitated US and Canadian forces (and free French, Polish etc) to conduct operations against the Axis powers, all in exchange for reunification of the island.

Ireland as a base would have enabled significant force projection for the War in the north and mid Atlantic, and would likely have turned the tide against the Nazi submarine Wolf packs and enabled faster build up of US food and weapons products in Europe. Who knows, they could have taken a year or more off the War.

The UK did sound out De Valera on entering the war/offering the treaty ports in return for reunification of Ireland after the war. Dev's response was to ask what James Craig thought of the proposal and, when he was told that Craig knew nothing of it, he knew it was bogus.

It wouldn't have been within the power of the US to offer a unified Ireland in return for Irish entry into the war, and if the UK had been willing and able to make such a offer seriously, they would already have done so.

[Peregrinus]

Originally Posted by spring lane jack

Dev could have lost it altogether and joined the Axis. Imagine the big stupid head on him next to Il Duce and the Fuhrer. The Brits would have absolutely flipped and probably would have occupied us again. We would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world.

Well, that's the thing with alternative histories. In the real world, Dev didn't align with the Axis; real-world Dev, for all his faults, wouldn't have done such a thing in a fit. In alternative-world where Dev joins the Axis, we can't say that "we would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world" because, in alternative world, Churchill and Roosevelt might also have joined the Axis.

[breezy1985]

Originally Posted by Peregrinus

Oh, gosh, we're into historical what-ifs here, which are fun but pointless. If Collins had survived and Dev have died we can't assume that there would ahve been any elections to lose; on the pro-Treaty side, Collins might well have become Ireland's Mussolini, and we could have had an effective one-party state by the mid-20s. On the other side, with no Dev, even if Ireland wasn't a one-party state by then, who's to say that Fianna Fáil or an FF equivalent would have split from SF and entered the Dáil in 1927, or ever?

The whole premise of the thread is a historical what if

[Peregrinus]

Originally Posted by breezy1985

The whole premise of the thread is a historical what if

Yes, I know. But what-ifs are only interesting if the what-if is at least modestly plausible, so we can rationally consider how it might have played out. Dev aligning Ireland with the Axis is so wildly unmoored in any kind of reality that a world in which that could have happened is so radically different from our own that we cannot really talk about what would have ensued. "What if Dev had aligned Ireland with the Axis?" is pretty much on a par with "What if Chamberlain had aligned the UK with the Axis?" In both cases, to consider the hypothesis in any meaningful way you have to consider why such a thing would have happened. Basic facts would have to have been very different before either leader would have considered such a course of action and, if basic facts were that different, then the what-if largely becomes teasing out the other consequences of such a difference. The circumstances which might have lead Dev to join the Axis would certainly mean that Dev joining the Axis — and many other things — would have played out very differently.

The interesting what-ifs are the ones that might, plausibly, have happened in our world. What if the UK had not handed back the treaty ports in 1938? What if someone other than Churchill had become PM on Chamberlain's resignation? What if Hitler had not declared war on the US in December 1941?

If Collins has survived but Dev has not, then the whole civil war and its aftermath plays out differently. The way you frame the question suggests that you assume that FF would have emerged anyway, and there would have been elections which FF would have won at about the same time that they did, in fact, win elections. But, really, in the scenario we are considering we have no reason to think that either of these things would have happened.

[breezy1985]

Originally Posted by Peregrinus

Yes, I know. But what-ifs are only interesting if the what-if is at least modestly plausible, so we can rationally consider how it might have played out. Dev aligning Ireland with the Axis is so wildly unmoored in any kind of reality that a world in which that could have happened is so radically different from our own that we cannot really talk about what would have ensued. "What if Dev had aligned Ireland with the Axis?" is pretty much on a par with "What if Chamberlain had aligned the UK with the Axis?" In both cases, to consider the hypothesis in any meaningful way you have to consider why such a thing would have happened. Basic facts would have to have been very different before either leader would have considered such a course of action and, if basic facts were that different, then the what-if largely becomes teasing out the other consequences of such a difference. The circumstances which might have lead Dev to join the Axis would certainly mean that Dev joining the Axis — and many other things — would have played out very differently.

The interesting what-ifs are the ones that might, plausibly, have happened in our world. What if the UK had not handed back the treaty ports in 1938? What if someone other than Churchill had become PM on Chamberlain's resignation? What if Hitler had not declared war on the US in December 1941?

If Collins has survived but Dev has not, then the whole civil war and its aftermath plays out differently. The way you frame the question suggests that you assume that FF would have emerged anyway, and there would have been elections which FF would have won at about the same time that they did, in fact, win elections. But, really, in the scenario we are considering we have no reason to think that either of these things would have happened.

I believe someone would have beaten CnG in an election in the 30s based mostly on the fact that Irish politics and also most similar systems would point to voter fatigue after 10/15 years so assuming democracy prevailed which would be the most likely outcome then all indicators point to a CnG loss in the 30s