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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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MT mentioning the plume around the 26 /27th and potential storm producer for Ireland and sryanbruen discussing the heat potential into the UK. ECM also showing around Mon 24th for potential frontal rains / Thunderstorms as LP comes up against the warmer airmass, as does the GFS .
Looks warm and sticky some of the time , possibly quite wet in places at times, but plenty of dry spells also. ECM going more N'ly at the end of the run , shows it warm for the first few days and cooler towards the end of the week. . An interesting week coming for weather watching and potential thunderstorms.
Still a long way off and less than clear .
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ensembles for Dublin showing a significant rise in temperatures for the Dublin area and loads of precipitation next week.
Temperatures ramping up from a cool 0C @850hpa to possibly +20C @850hpa on some of the outlying members.
These certainly seem a bit extreme for Dublin, if there was sunny spells this would result in temperatures north of 25C on the ground in about a weeks time. Overall the last week of June does look significantly warmer than the first 3 weeks of June where temperatures should comfortably reach 20C or more.0 -
I remember during January and February, it was always over delivering on snow potential for us with the operational run much more conservative and accurate. If this holds could be troublesum for us this winter!
Indeed. The GFS operational run has continued to churn out these ludicrously warm charts yesterday evening and today again, generally not QUITE GFS 06z levels from yesterday thankfully but still ridiculous enough.
Until something is done with this GFS, don't think I'll be looking at it or using it as a guide for forecasts rather something to have a laugh at. It's like the NAVGEM's long lost brother.It's looking like we wont have a few dry days together so. I have a question for Sryan. Physically speaking why was May so dry with the completely negative NAO. In comparison why was June so wet with the same negative NAO. I'm curious. Like to know.
Despite the anomalous -NAO in May, there was lots of ridging from Iberia (and some ridges from the Greenland High too) which influenced our weather. The Atlantic was blocked off from pushing through for the most part. May could have been an even colder and wetter month if we didn't have that ridging as central Europe had quite a cold May. There was one part of the month which was indicative of the June pattern we've had though and that was around the 8th/9th. The first chart was typical of May 2019 with high pressure ridging through us but its centre was to the northwest so was not warm whilst troughing was over Scandinavia and central Europe. The second chart from 8 May 2019 was more indicative of June.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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ECMWF there with the warm temperatures on the 12Z run again for next week , into the 20's and perhaps touching the mid 20's in places around Tues/ Weds, probably less warm Thurs and Fri but still in the high teens.
With the cut off low positioned where it is we will have to see what type of moisture it brings up over us from the S, SE and E directions and what potential there is for thunderstorm development .
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in all my time looking at the thunderstorm risk charts on the GFS iv never seen such a high chance of activity over Ireland. So rare to see the bright red/orange/yellow shadings over Ireland. Is nobody remotely excited? Met Eireann also highlighting the risk of some thunderstorms as early as sunday night. 25 degrees at midnight in Ireland !? i think the gfs has gone mad.
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Looks like the ECM has joined the GFS in really turning up the furnace, somehow even warmer than the GFS OP this evening. Very sticky, humid air!
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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The ECM has certainly being bringing up the temperatures over the last few runs , going by the 12Z run we could be seeing temps getting up around :
Tues... 24C
Weds... 25C
Thurs... 26C
Fri... 26C
Sat... 24C
Could be seeing some dense fog at times next week and sea fog.
Dew Points getting up around 18C next weds to 20C Thu
Will see nearer the time precipitation forecasts and potential for thunderstorms.
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ECM 12Z rolling out .What a chart !
Twice as warm 850hPa temps as the GFS.
high 20's or over 30C if this came off.
Next one :eek:
Maybe an outlier maybe not.
A record breaker perhaps if it happened like this.
Long way off and no doubt twists and turns to come.
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