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Is there a chance it could just die off completely?

245

Comments

  • #32
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    jd1983 wrote: »
    What countries are easing restrictions as the outbreak is worsening?

    Mexico, India, Pakistan ,Indonesia


  • #33
    Dakota Dan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭Dakota Dan


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Do you mean globally or in Ireland? Ireland and some countries may get rid of it, but outbreaks will clearly not be kept under control in a lot of developing countries , so it'll be a good while before it's gone from the entire world, in fact some countries appear to be easing restrictions even as the outbreak gets worse
    So you just made all that up, in other words you haven’t a clue what will happen.


  • #34
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Dakota Dan wrote: »
    So you just made all that up, in other words you haven’t a clue what will happen.

    Nobody does,every single reply on this thread is subjective opinion, should we close this thread down then? I havn't given any indication of how long I think it will be around, but given tge fact that several large developing countries are making little to no effort to control it, it is difficult to see this virus being eradicated within 6 months considering how long it has remained within the western world despite lockdowns lasting 2-3 months.


  • #35
    jd1983
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭jd1983


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Mexico, India, Pakistan ,Indonesia

    Looking at their deaths per million, it doesn't look like they've had much of an outbreak at all. Their testing rates are quite low, so that might explain their low deaths per million rate but it's not possible to be certain.
    I'm not sure about the other 3 countries but India's lockdown was brutal and seriously impinged on their human rights, so it's a good thing they've started to ease restrictions.


  • #36
    Be right back
    Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭Be right back


    nickkinneg wrote: »
    Its reported man onboard flight to lanzarote got a positive result while onboard the plane - 140 people quarantined - The man now faces prosecution for skipping quarantine and the State of Emergency and has been reported for a possible crime against public health - this does not bode well

    I read that too. What a selfish so and so. How many has he put at risk?


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  • #37
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    jd1983 wrote: »
    Looking at their deaths per million, it doesn't look like they've had much of an outbreak at all. Their testing rates are quite low, so that might explain their low deaths per million rate but it's not possible to be certain.
    I'm not sure about the other 3 countries but India's lockdown was brutal and seriously impinged on their human rights, so it's a good thing they've started to ease restrictions.

    Yeh no the outbreaks aren't too bad at all in most of these places, but there has been a marked increase in the number of cases and deaths lately in all of those countries just before restrictions were eased


  • #38
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GT89 wrote: »
    Well if we keep going in and out of lockdown or severe restrictions. The economy will not be able to cope simple as that. It will get to the point where food will have to be rationed and tbh with you I fail to see how we can we could even pay for treating people if a second wave does come around.

    I fear to the extent that if a second wave was to come around which it likely will not we will not have have the money to deal with it. Things like full stadiums will have to come back without social distancing as they are crucial to the wider economy in the broader picture.

    I support the CDC view of this that this could really flare through the Autumn.

    I hope that's not the case but I'm not going to be in denial either.

    If people want to have the perfectly legitimate view that that won't happen then more power to them.

    We need to be prepared to take the actions we need to take either way whether it happens or not.

    And stuffing people in to stadiums would be ridiculous as things currently stand. The authorities know better which is why full stadiums are out for the foreseeable future and that the right approach.

    You can't on the one hand complain about Cheltenham and at the same time want full stadiums.

    It's important to note nothing has changed with this disease since February. It's still the same thing countries are dealing with as it was then.

    Yet some seem to believe something has changed.

    I understand people are angry and frustrated, their jobs are at risk, they can't do a lot of things they use to do and they want things back to normal ASAP. You can see it here, posters have strong views because they are worried like the rest of us.

    We can get a form of normal back and at the same time retain distancing measures to keep the infection down.

    Filling up stadiums is not one of them and is the shifting of the goal posts to a hopelessly irresponsible level that will see us all back here again.

    If we want to get as close to normal as possible we have to accept some things that are abnormal for the foreseeable future.

    The price of not doing that is too high.


  • #39
    nickkinneg
    Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭nickkinneg


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    I support the CDC view of this that this could really flare through the Autumn.

    I hope that's not the case but I'm not going to be in denial either.

    If people want to have the perfectly legitimate view that that won't happen then more power to them.

    We need to be prepared to take the actions we need to take either way whether it happens or not.

    And stuffing people in to stadiums would be ridiculous as things currently stand. The authorities know better which is why full stadiums are out for the foreseeable future and that the right approach.

    You can't on the one hand complain about Cheltenham and at the same time want full stadiums.

    It's important to note nothing has changed with this disease since February. It's still the same thing countries are dealing with as it was then.

    Yet some seem to believe something has changed.

    I understand people are angry and frustrated, their jobs are at risk, they can't do a lot of things they use to do and they want things back to normal ASAP. You can see it here, posters have strong views because they are worried like the rest of us.

    We can get a form of normal back and at the same time retain distancing measures to keep the infection down.

    Filling up stadiums is not one of them and is the shifting of the goal posts to a hopelessly irresponsible level that will see us all back here again.

    If we want to get as close to normal as possible we have to accept some things that are abnormal for the foreseeable future.

    The price of not doing that is too high.

    I agree - its ability to mutate - i have no expertise - but have read a few scientists opinions that it will be back in force in autumn/winter. Guess time will shortly tell


  • #40
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    re: WHO saying there'll be a second wave, that's not what this artice says



    WHO warns there could be a second peak, not a second wave


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-25-20-intl/h_f260b669316ece8af17b56e6dc0ab64b


  • #41
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    This will be like the Aliens franchise where the 2nd outing is the most eventful but more scary.

    Time to stock up on baked beans.


    I thought you were joking in a Naked Gun/Airplane parody kinda way

    But you weren't :confused:


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  • #42
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I thought you were joking in a Naked Gun/Airplane parody kinda way

    But you weren't :confused:

    I was.


  • #43
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    I was.


    Tbh Kermit, given your recent track record, it's hard to know the difference


  • #44
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ


    Coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, according to a senior Italian doctor.


    "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.


    "The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.


    Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from Covid-19 at 33,415 and has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019. However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May.


    Dr Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

    "We've got to get back to being a normal country," he said.


  • #45
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,073 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

    In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.


  • #46
    snoopboggybog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

    In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

    Brazil isn't and the states isn't?

    Going to be around for a long long time. 10,000 protesting in Chicago yesterday side by side and the place is riddled with it.


  • #47
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

    In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

    It was still a stupid remark. `The outbreak is growing within several regions of the world with tropical , desert and equitorial climates, of course most infamously Brazil being the worst example. It was 'killed' in the USA and EU because of lockdown, not the weather. I don't know how you could possibly think the weather is reponsible for the decline in cases and not the 3 month long lockdown we have all just experienced.


  • #48
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,073 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    snoopboggybog wrote: »
    Brazil isn't and the states isn't?

    Going to be around for a long long time. 10,000 protesting in Chicago yesterday side by side and the place is riddled with it.


    Favela's Brazil are U-Boat style accommodation, it will be there a long time and kills multiples of those dead now. Those in Chicago are generally not returning to similar accommodation and anyone with sense is washing their hands and avoiding spreaders.


  • #49
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,073 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    It was still a stupid remark. `The outbreak is growing within several regions of the world with tropical , desert and equitorial climates, of course most infamously Brazil being the worst example. It was 'killed' in the USA and EU because of lockdown, not the weather. I don't know how you could possibly think the weather is reponsible for the decline in cases and not the 3 month long lockdown we have all just experienced.


    Read the rest of my post regarding U-Boat style accommodation.


  • #50
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ



    I mean, this is weird because if it's true why has it never been mentioned before? Like that would be big news, is it just unique to Italy or something?


  • #51
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Favela's Brazil are U-Boat style accommodation


    What's that?


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  • #52
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Read the rest of my post regarding U-Boat style accommodation.

    Well in that case then the claims of warm weather killing the virus is not widely applicable and dependent on the style of living in a given location, therefore it is not a major factor or the most important factor at least.


  • #53
    snoopboggybog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    What's that?

    Fancy words for overcrowded slums I imagine.


  • #54
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭quokula


    Possible reasons that it is subsiding (in Ireland and across Europe generally)

    1) Lockdown worked. This is the obvious, most likely reason. And is why there is a chance of it going back up as things are eased, and why it won't be eradicated globally any time soon as too many countries failed to lockdown adequately
    2) Social distancing works. We can keep it down if we follow the rules, but there will always be the risk of complacency and there will always be some level of transmission
    3) It's seasonal. It doesn't like hot temps / people getting vitamin D / whatever. In which case it will be back later in the year
    4) Herd Immunity. This is one way to kill it off permanently, but antibody tests suggest nowhere is close to that, and to get there would mean an order of magnitude more deaths than we've seen so far
    5) The virus has weakened somehow. Some posters above have alluded to that, but virus mutations don't work that way. When there is a new strain, the old strain doesn't just disappear. One possibility is a new strain that is both more virulent and less deadly, while still maintaining enough in common with the original strain to contribute to herd immunity. But there's no evidence of that happening
    6) Pre-existing immunity. There are some hypotheses that a lot of people are already naturally immune, therefore far fewer infections are needed to achieve herd immunity and we might be getting there. It's not impossible but there's little evidence supporting this theory right now

    On the balance of probabilities, I don't think it's just going to go away on its own. We may see eventual herd immunity but it will be years not months, and a great many deaths in the meantime. A concerted strict global lockdown could kill it off but that will never happen.

    The best hope continues to be continuing research into a vaccine (which could kill it off everywhere it's rolled out), treatments (which could allow herd immunity to be reached without the body count), and improved understanding of transmission and improved testing (which could help us limit the spread much more with less draconian measures than are currently needed)


  • #55
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,073 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    What's that?


    People getting out of beds to be replaced by people getting in, basically overcrowding, 10 people to a 3 bed house for example.


  • #56
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I mean, this is weird because if it's true why has it never been mentioned before? Like that would be big news, is it just unique to Italy or something?


    The article is just a few hours old


  • #57
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,720 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    What's that?

    They're a bit of a dive?


  • #58
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,584 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Anyone else rolling their eyes at all the talk of a second wave? We were told in the early days this is not like the flu. Now when you hear people and media talk about a second wave they usually reference and compare to the Spanish flu and other flus.

    There won’t be a severe second wave in Europe.

    America is goosed though. While I totally support the protests there, id be highly surprised if we don’t see an explosion of cases in the aftermath


  • #59
    LiquidZeb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭LiquidZeb


    faceman wrote: »
    Anyone else rolling their eyes at all the talk of a second wave? We were told in the early days because this is not like the flu. Now when you hear people and media talk about a second wave they usually reference and compare to the Spanish flu and other flus.

    There won’t be a severe second wave in Europe.

    America is goosed though. While I totally support the protests there, id be highly surprised if we don’t see an explosion of cases in the aftermath

    Well one thing I find ridiculous is that the media haven't pointed it out at all. If there were mass gatherings here they'd absolutely nail people to the wall. I understand why people in America are angry, what happened was atrocious but surely they could carry out a social distanced protest like in Spain last week?


  • #60
    MickeyLeari
    Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    faceman wrote: »
    Anyone else rolling their eyes at all the talk of a second wave? We were told in the early days because this is not like the flu. Now when you hear people and media talk about a second wave they usually reference and compare to the Spanish flu and other flus.

    There won’t be a severe second wave in Europe.

    America is goosed though. While I totally support the protests there, id be highly surprised if we don’t see an explosion of cases in the aftermath

    We should open up the country to EU member States. Not sure right now on flights from U.K. and US.


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  • #61
    MickeyLeari
    Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭MickeyLeari


    The question is interesting for non experts. I also expect that if you brought in five experts and asked them this question we would have different answers. Reality is that no one knows. A nice wish is that it becomes more benign.


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