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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    While the latest 'Icon' has it shifting more away westwards:

    ICOOPEU12_117_1.png

    Just another week of this to go.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    While the GFS and ICON back off, the GEM moves to have it directly over us

    image.png.a6e411489f44ba289f34b1717c7063bd.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Do the Canadians have much weather skill? They put this tracking almost south of Ireland west to east!

    edit I see I'm beaten to it!

    ICON has a mini heat wave inspired by this "event"


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If ECM takes the GFS/UKMO route this evening it would make things easier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It is just the slightest shift south of the more typical Atlantic cyclone track in the latest runs that is causing this wobble, which in itself, is partial to further wobbles. It is going to be interesting to watch how the models will handle all these complications over next few days, but really at this stage, given any potential impacts (for Ireland) are still basically a week away, it is just roll of the dice as to what each model will show in any given run.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    It is just the slightest shift south of the more typical Atlantic cyclone track in the latest runs that is causing this wobble, which in itself, is partial to further wobbles. It is going to be interesting to watch how the models will handle all these complications over next few days, but really at this stage, given any potential impacts (for Ireland) are still basically a week away, it is just roll of the dice as to what each model will show in any given run.

    Really only 5 days away. Thursday evening/night...so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    From met eireann
    Forecaster’s Commentary

    Hurricane Lorenzo is currently (Sat 28 September 12:00) a Major Hurricane (M), positioned in the south Atlantic.
    In the coming days it is expected to gradually track northeastwards in the direction of Ireland. However, the exact track and the severity of the system once it comes closer to land is still uncertain. It is expected to lose its major status soon and transition to a Hurricane (H).
    The latest National Hurricane Centre forecast shows the hurricane bending gradually towards Ireland but with a margin of uncertainty around its track.

     

    The European Medium Range forecast model that we use in Met Eireann is showing a larger spread once it comes nearer this side of the Atlantic. This indicates that there is a great deal of uncertainty on whether it will impact Ireland. This model calculates 50 possible solutions, all starting with slightly different initial values of its track to reflect the uncertainty of its future track.

     

    The black line in this graphic shows the forecast track of the current computer model run, and the colours indicate all the other possible tracks in the ensemble of 50 members.

     

    Met Eireann will continue to monitor the development of Lorenzo and this commentary will be updated every day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭ Leila Eager Blowgun


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Next Thursdays Satellite image over Ireland could be one for the archives.

    You mean we'll have clear skies :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    EC Deterministic having none of it.

    Big 3 in agreement this evening. Shows importance of ensembles....there was a 10% support for the storm impacting Ireland a few days ago today .......maybe approached 20% risk this morning.....and now we await the next set of ensembles....

    Still could return but important not to get drawn by spikey Deterministic runs.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Met Eireann may well not need to bother with a daily update. :p

    Important to note though this will be chopping and changing for a few days yet but the favoured outcome now is that it misses us and disintegrates to our south.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    ECM 12z makes it very difficult to make out exactly where it tracks from 120 to 144h - can anyone figure out which feature is the remnant in the 144h chart?

    anim_jvm6.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Hurricane Lorenzo has taken 11 lives after their ship sank, 3 rescued major search underway

    https://gcaptain.com/bourbon-rhode-sinks-in-the-atlantic-ocean-three-rescued/


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That's tragic. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I would think the fact that everything swings South of Ireland now compared to most runs heading for Iceland 24 hours ago means a solution in between is quite possible. It's all up for grabs really a major storm or nothing at all could happen


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    That's tragic. :(

    I'm at a loss to figure out why on a modern vessel they did not steam away from the path of the Hurricane, 60 miles from the centre of a cat 5 is beyond belief she was overwhelmed with the sea went down, you read all the time of cruise liners changing course to avoid hurricanes don't know why they did not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Shocking to hear, that captain really made a mistake with that but too late now. RIP


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I would think the fact that everything swings South of Ireland now compared to most runs heading for Iceland 24 hours ago means a solution in between is quite possible. It's all up for grabs really a major storm or nothing at all could happen

    That's the spirit JS! :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,811 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    Going by the article they said the boat was taking on water. If that caused an engine failure they might have had no means of escaping the path.

    I take this will be gone by Saturday morning irrespective of landfall in Ireland?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog



    I take this will be gone by Saturday morning irrespective of landfall in Ireland?

    Nope. We'll all be down in the fake capital saving Corkonians from their sunken city :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The main confusion between all the models is how Lorenzo will phase with that large trough coming off NE Canada. Comparing today's 00Z and 12Z ECM runs for 18Z on Wednesday, the 12Z run has Lorenzo slower to make progress north and therefore misses the ride of the trough, which gets ahead of it and pivots back NWwards, leaving Lorenzo stranded in a slacker more westerly steering flow. This means less upper forcing and a more easterly track towards Biscay.

    Earlier runs had Lorenzo further north enough to phase with the trough, which would steer it in a more northerly track and swing it westwards south of Iceland and Greenland. It's a game of inches (on a screen - hundreds of kms full scale) The difference in Lorenzo's location between the two is about 2 degrees of latitude, i.e. 120 NM.

    12Z Run
    ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2019092812_102.jpg

    00Z Run

    ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2019092800_114.jpg


  • Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    I'm at a loss to figure out why on a modern vessel they did not steam away from the path of the Hurricane, 60 miles from the centre of a cat 5 is beyond belief she was overwhelmed with the sea went down, you read all the time of cruise liners changing course to avoid hurricanes don't know why they did not.

    An uncle of mine was a ships carpenter on merchant ships, he said it was quite common for certain captains to not avoid even hurricanes in order to save time. He said that you could see the sides of the ship buckle inwards when they went down the waves, the thought of this used to scare the ****e out of me when I was a kid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 18Z SHIPS (a statistical model) has the centre at 53.7N 13.4W (224 km off our coast) at 18Z on Thursday (120 hours), with an intensity of 30 knots. It's currently 4300 km away from that point now so a lot of water to pass between now and then.

    491834.PNG


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Lastest recon has it a little stronger again at 110 knots, 946 hPa.

    recon_NOAA3-WD13A-LORENZO_timeseries.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 145 ✭✭crx===


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Hurricane Lorenzo has taken 11 lives after their ship sank, 3 rescued major search underway

    https://gcaptain.com/bourbon-rhode-sinks-in-the-atlantic-ocean-three-rescued/


    There were 4 life rafts on that boat... There is still some hope they made it off alive.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭ Leila Eager Blowgun


    Met Eireann may well not need to bother with a daily update. :p

    Important to note though this will be chopping and changing for a few days yet but the favoured outcome now is that it misses us and disintegrates to our south.

    If that happens I would consider hugging you even though you are a frog :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z ECM ensemble tracks now more spread than ever, with some weak members even curving back south towards Portugal.

    491836.png

    491837.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    All of tonight's EPS projections for next Thursday.

    64AqKpJ.png

    Still all over the place, but broadly speaking, the more westwards the path of the storm, the more potent it shall remain.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    All of tonight's EPS projections for next Thursday.

    64AqKpJ.png

    Still all over the place, but broadly speaking, the more westwards the path of the storm, the more potent it shall remain.

    Let's hope the path remains that way so. I would love a good autumnal storm.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Lorenzo is Cat 4, 115 knots again for now but down to TS intensity earlier and more south than previously before reaching Ireland.
    Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
    500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

    A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has
    been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after
    Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb
    flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112
    kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt.
    These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which
    makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported
    a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb.

    Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the
    subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger
    than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge
    Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that
    period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn
    Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion
    accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
    The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model
    and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the
    previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward
    adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest
    global model guidance.

    Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day
    or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and
    decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected
    to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3
    days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with
    an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start
    extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the
    transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the
    moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4.
    Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical
    transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
    slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.

    Key Messages:

    1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
    tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
    during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
    near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
    the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
    monitor the progress of the hurricane.

    2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
    much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
    the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
    and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
    72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
    96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
    120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    48810579757_47d493e472_c.jpg


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