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Hurricane ARTHUR

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  • 01-07-2014 2:28pm
    #1
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    115506W5_NL_sm.gif
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 010841
    TCDAT1

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
    500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

    Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
    of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
    deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
    circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
    enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
    velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
    and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
    agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
    objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.

    There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
    guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
    260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
    straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
    the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
    to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
    should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
    north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
    days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
    increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
    official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
    the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.

    Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
    with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
    during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
    now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
    latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
    period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
    with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
    extratropical transition.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


Comments

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    #2
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur.


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    #3
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Came pretty close to a June without any tropical cyclones there... Presumably with at least a moderate El Niño on the way, one can expect a hurricane season more or less as lacklustre as last year's?


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    #4
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    Came pretty close to a June without any tropical cyclones there... Presumably with at least a moderate El Niño on the way, one can expect a hurricane season more or less as lacklustre as last year's?

    Yeah probably won't be a very active season at all.

    Below average seasons can still be interesting though. 1992 only had 7 named storms, but one of them was Andrew.


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    #5
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users Posts: 3,495 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Arthur.A2014182.1630.1km.jpg


    Bastardi: ‘potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend’ - -> http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/
    June 30, 2014
    We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why. To refresh your memory, a look at the ECMWF 200 mb pattern Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, indicates why this can deepen so much, and as a matter of fact is in a prime area to do so.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Options
    #6
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest forecast discussion
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 012053
    TCDAT1

    TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
    500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

    Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
    pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...
    an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
    cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface
    winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the
    intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
    around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
    been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
    significant turbulence.

    Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant
    change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
    The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on
    large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern
    and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a
    subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The
    combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase
    the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
    and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
    forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the
    aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official
    forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory
    track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance
    envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.

    Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate
    over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level
    outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary
    inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level
    air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and
    briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global
    and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to
    moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to
    strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and
    in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving
    over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear
    in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.
    The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart


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    #7
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest ECM has Arthur as a sub-970mb hurricane brushing the Outer Banks. Would most likely be a Cat 2 if that came off, but intensity is the hardest thing to predict.


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    #8
    irishgeo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,369 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Them hurricane hunter planes must be a interesting trip.


  • Options
    #9
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Arthur is now a hurricane.


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    #10
    weisses
    Registered Users Posts: 9,430 ✭✭✭weisses


    irishgeo wrote: »
    Them hurricane hunter planes must be a interesting trip.

    http://www.flightradar24.com/NOAA42/3b93c2f


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    #11
    bnt
    Registered Users Posts: 12,957 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    Another way is to start at the FlightRadar24 homepage and use the filter for callsign "NOAA". There are two flights up at this moment - NOAA2 and NOAA42. Note that the displayed tracks are not 100% accurate - where you see long straight lines, that means data is missing, not that they flew in straight lines.

    From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter of a million miles out and say, ‘Look at that, you son of a bitch’.

    — Edgar Mitchell, Apollo 14 Astronaut



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  • Options
    #12
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    bnt wrote: »
    Another way is to start at the FlightRadar24 homepage and use the filter for callsign "NOAA". There are two flights up at this moment - NOAA2 and NOAA42. Note that the displayed tracks are not 100% accurate - where you see long straight lines, that means data is missing, not that they flew in straight lines.

    You can get the live recon data from the flights and Google Earth overlay plugins here.

    http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

    ...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...
    8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3
    Location: 31.8°N 78.7°W
    Moving: NNE at 9 mph
    Min pressure: 983 mb
    Max sustained: 80 mph


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    #13
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Heres a link for HurricaneTrack.com. The guy is currently driving around looking Buxton North Carolina,for site to place the web cam.


    http://hurricanetrack.com

    http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack


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    #14
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    at201401_sat.jpg


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    #15
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Lots of interesting thunderstorms in that secondary low over Northern Florida,just as,if not more exciting under that I'd say!


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