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Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

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    #62
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    I think we need a full slap with these two storms to give us reference points for the future.


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    #63
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Latest windspeed forecast from DMI.DK

    184168.gif

    184169.PNG
    I have been looking at this particular model since 2008 and this is the first time I have seen the highest echelons of the legend actually being projected so close to Ireland.

    yeah. it would be scary living on the outer hebrides if those are realised. meanwhile on one site i'm looking at it's showing gusts of 65- 70 mph early Tuesday morning for Tuam;)


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    #64
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Its coming up to 5 to Midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann on Radio 1/Sky 0160.


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    #65
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    For Donegal, maybe..

    Dont know what rock you have been living under but the weather has been very aggressive around these parts in the past few weeks :)


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    #66
    Weylin
    Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Weylin


    am currently in east galway athenry/loughrea area,temp around 5 deg, slight breeze,no frost,and definitley no gales/storm yet..................:confused:


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    #67
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    Dont know what rock you have been living under but the weather has been very aggressive around these parts in the past few weeks :)

    And did I not acknowledge that Mr. Pangea?


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    #68
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    GFS overcooks minimum pressures over 48 hours out. Twill just as likely be a breeze next week.

    UKMO warning thursday and friday

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1


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    #69
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    And did I not acknowledge that Mr. Pangea?

    You did of course, what I meant was surely you must of had some of this interesting weather? ;)

    P.S
    Plenty more lightning strikes around here tonight :P
    L9Wd2.gif


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    #70
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    P.S
    Plenty more lightning strikes around here tonight :P
    L9Wd2.gif

    :(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(


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    #71
    premiercad
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    NOAA forecasting this monster's centre to head straight for Scotlands tip then track due east

    00.00 Thursday Morning

    6468681479_e118c5c340.jpg

    and at 12 pm thursday :eek::eek:

    6468681625_520001d566.jpg


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    #72
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Whats the lightening link again. Nearly sure we just had a flash here.


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    #73
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Whats the lightening link again. Nearly sure we just had a flash here.

    Two of the handiest:

    http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
    http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html?

    Quite a few strikes showing up in the NW over the last hour or so.


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    #74
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    And we did have lightening. Most excellent.


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    #75
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS ensembles for central Ireland, I've circled Thursday's storm and the potential storm for early next week.

    2s6lhki.jpg


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    #76
    premiercad
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    and wave height in metres for noon thursday

    10m ......anyone going surfing? :rolleyes:

    6468787409_f08c965b0b.jpg


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    #77
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Some day we will have snow in the south east lol


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    #78
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    High tide round 4pm here Thursday ! Yikes


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    #79
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    only one wrote: »
    Some day we will have snow in the south east lol

    We did for a couple of days late last November if you remember. The joys of living in the sunny SE :rolleyes:


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    #80
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Took a snap of Evelyn showing Thursdays storm for those who think that ME have not covered it.
    ]


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    #81
    naughto
    Registered Users Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭naughto


    some very loud thunder in castlebar lights nearly went very very windy


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    #82
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Interesting that they only have the low at 977mb whereas some of the models have it close to 955mb, I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

    Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest


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    #83
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Hey all,on the mobile.Loud thunder and severe gusts in Castlebar now.


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    #84
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Harps wrote: »
    I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

    Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest

    the gfs has a tendency to over egg the pressure level only to downgrade a day or so before hand, that said there does seem to be good cross model on agreement on this being a severe event for Scotland


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    #85
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Harps wrote: »
    Interesting that they only have the low at 977mb whereas some of the models have it close to 955mb, I know it deepens quickly but looking at it in a similar position on the 18Z gfs its already around 960mb

    Assume they're using the HIRLAM which seems to be underplaying the storm compared to the rest


    Check out those isobars on the 18Z NAE run.

    29pqefs.jpg

    Some serious winds on the way for western Scotland there!

    Looking forward to getting the first proper look at this on the NMM model on the 0Z run.


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    #86
    faktisperminute
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    damn imagine if it was cold enough to snow when the strom arrives


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    #87
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Mean windspeed at Malin Head on 44kts, or severe gale force 9 on 1am reports:

    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

    gusting 54kts (BF Storm 10)

    Other reports (mean/gust)

    Mace Head: 37 / 50
    Finner Camp: 33 / 53
    Belmullet: 28 / 54
    Sherkin Island: 29 / 43


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    #88
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    faktisperminute wrote: »
    damn imagine if it was cold enough to snow when the strom arrives

    It will be in parts of Scotland. There could be blizzards with gusts of 90-110 mph around a 150 metres above sea level there.


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    #89
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    w1323356400.gif

    The winds peaks in the west and Northwest at around 3pm on Thursday according to this chart.


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    #90
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    redsunset wrote: »
    Took a snap of Evelyn showing Thursdays storm for those who think that ME have not covered it.
    ]

    Just so you know, that refers to the force of the wind, not the actual 'storm'.
    You can see Gale Force on the screenshot too.
    It had the same for tonight as you can see from below. She did warn about structural damage for Thursday event though so as you said we have been warned
    HFEt9l.jpg


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    #91
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    UKMO warnings from earlier today for wind and snow for Thursday. These will be replaced with probably stronger and more refined warnings tomorrow.

    9bjdd2.jpg
    Winds will increase during Thursday afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that winds are likely to becoming strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel services, and possibly some structural damage to buildings. On Friday morning winds will tend to ease from the west.

    Presently Northern Scotland looks likely to experience the strongest winds.

    Heavy rain and hill snow are additional hazards that will accompany the strengthening winds. There is also a low risk of coastal flooding on North Sea coasts during Friday.
    Snow showers are expected late on Thursday and through Friday. The public should be aware that these will be heavy at times, and may give significant accumulations that could disrupt travel. Gale or severe gale force northwesterly winds will accompany the snow showers, perhaps leading to drifting over high ground, but these winds will slowly moderate during Friday.


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