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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

12357…20

Comments

  • #122
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models showing the early days of next week being very turbulent with very strong wind potential. Huge area of deep LP. Timing and track bit different after Monday but been showing spells of very strong winds now for a few runs , chopping and changing as is to be expected at this stage but all pointing towards one or two spells of very windy or stormy weather .

    UKMO 12Z at odds with the other models on the latest run, interested to see if this is an outlier.

    VY2VBMc.png

    EFzk1VY.png

    2kjFPiE.png

    GyFPSli.png


  • #123
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A way to go before the models settle down but been showing some strong winds and big rainfall accumulations from the weekend especially in Atlantic coastal counties and the Western half of the country


    vMbsrWI.png

    lrJlPMD.png

    850hPa Winds approx 1.5km height

    01xOs1s.gif

    HP over Europe helping to keep the LP out in the Atlantic. The polar jet the dividing line between HP and LP. The Jet nudging either way could make a big difference in how stormy the weather could get I reckon.

    NRt8sMJ.gif


  • #124
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Still so warm in continental Europe. Stockholm, Oslo and Helsinki all well up around 5-7 degrees by day over the coming week. Krakow in Poland averaging around +6 and 7 degrees. What is going on with the sustained mild weather everywhere??


  • #125
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭highdef


    Slashermcguirk wrote: »
    Still so warm in continental Europe. Stockholm, Oslo and Helsinki all well up around 5-7 degrees by day over the coming week. Krakow in Poland averaging around +6 and 7 degrees. What is going on with the sustained mild weather everywhere??

    With the polar vortex being so strong at the moment, most of the cold is trapped up in the polar region with no escape mechanism to spread further south.


  • #126
    Tazio
    Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    highdef wrote: »
    With the polar vortex being so strong at the moment, most of the cold is trapped up in the polar region with no escape mechanism to spread further south.


    I think this is a good visualisation... (hope this link works)




    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-0.64,78.51,466






    Screenshot as follows:


    499313.png


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  • #127
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Usually it's mostly Ireland and much of north-western Europe that would remain milder than usual under these situations but this zonal pattern is to the extreme taking it's milder weather from the Bermuda/Bahamus, all the way to Ireland, across almost the whole of Europe and on into Russia, crossing the entire eurasian region almost as far as the eastern seaboard of Russia beside Alaska. Naturally most of Russia is covered in snow but the temperatures are still 4 to 5C above normal, much of western Russia is snow free at the moment.

    We need something to shift this pattern or we could be locked into it till March. We need a major SSW event or something similar to really disturb the current pattern and interrupt that PV.


  • #128
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Usually it's mostly Ireland and much of north-western Europe that would remain milder than usual under these situations but this zonal pattern is to the extreme taking it's milder weather from the Bermuda/Bahamus, all the way to Ireland, across almost the whole of Europe and on into Russia, crossing the entire eurasian region almost as far as the eastern seaboard of Russia beside Alaska. Naturally most of Russia is covered in snow but the temperatures are still 4 to 5C above normal, much of western Russia is snow free at the moment.

    We need something to shift this pattern or we could be locked into it till March. We need a major SSW event or something similar to really disturb the current pattern and interrupt that PV.

    Yup something very special is going to be needed to shift all this. Feels like late spring in town today. It’s actually quite nice and I’ll take this if there’s no guarantee of snowy cold.


  • #129
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    It's not surprising that with in winter an anomalously strong polar vortex that you'd have a westerly mobile enough to go so far at our latitude to almost return on itself
    Home grown cold doesn't really happen even in Europe at our latitude, it blows in from the north originally and then drifts somewhere before dissipating

    Of course we will be told again the resulting higher average temps across the affected area is global warming
    It is but is it sustained
    Sustained means prolonged trouble
    Anomalous does not necessarily, it's a good exaggeration tool for pushing us to do the environmentally friendly things we should be doing anyway


  • #130
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the long range forecasts continue with mild or extremely mild conditions over Europe over the next 4 weeks with no end in sight to the mild. Ireland should remain 1 to 3C above average and parts of northern and eastern Europe could be between 4 and 10C above average at times. January is likely to break records for warmth in many parts of Europe, particularly across Scandinavia and eastern Europe, into Russia.

    I'm not sure we'll break records here in Ireland as mild January's are fairly normal.The rest of this month remains mild for us, but not as mild as it has been. It's a bizarre situation because if this was the summer, the whole of Europe including Ireland would be having one hell of a heatwave for weeks on end. What's also bizzarre is that there is a more likelyhood of snow falling in Athens than any other capital city in mainland Europe over the next few weeks.


  • #131
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gonzo wrote: »
    the long range forecasts continue with mild or extremely mild conditions over Europe over the next 4 weeks with no end in sight to the mild. Ireland should remain 1 to 3C above average and parts of northern and eastern Europe could be between 4 and 10C above average at times. January is likely to break records for warmth in many parts of Europe, particularly across Scandinavia and eastern Europe, into Russia.

    I'm not sure we'll break records here in Ireland as mild January's are fairly normal.The rest of this month remains mild for us, but not as mild as it has been. It's a bizarre situation because if this was the summer, the whole of Europe including Ireland would be having one hell of a heatwave for weeks on end. What's also bizzarre is that there is a more likelyhood of snow falling in Athens than any other capital city in mainland Europe over the next few weeks.

    Curiosly though the Alpine ski resorts are doing OK for now. The Rebelbrowser family are going on our first family ski trip the week after next to the French Alps so I'm watching things closely.

    There was above average snowfall up to Christmas so there is a very good base level in most resorts. Its been mostly dry since 27 December but the high pressure means it is well sub zero most nights so snow making is easy enough. A bit worried myself that this might change over the next few days but the locals seem calm enough from what I can make out. I think once there is a good snow base the rest of the winter generally looks after itself at any sort of decent altitude there.


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  • #132
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    What's also bizzarre is that there is a more likelyhood of snow falling in Athens than any other capital city in mainland Europe over the next few weeks.

    It's not bizarre to have snow in Athens
    However, it's as unlikely to have it this winter as any other European city unless there is a leakage of cold from up at the top of the globe
    We better shut up,the thread is being derailed :O


  • #133
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1214460706382323713?s=19


  • #134
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yup something very special is going to be needed to shift all this. Feels like late spring in town today. It’s actually quite nice and I’ll take this if there’s no guarantee of snowy cold.

    Can a major depression heading into the Artic have any impact on breaking such a strong vortex or has the change to propagate from higher in the atmosphere like a SSW?


  • #135
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭esposito


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    Can a major depression heading into the Artic have any impact on breaking such a strong vortex or has the change to propagate from higher in the atmosphere like a SSW?

    Very good question. I often wondered that myself, surely it’s not just a SSW that can disrupt it?


  • #136
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Today's output again is suggestive of headline making storm conditions next week. ECM has a monster storm hitting Thursday next. Various other permutations of severe storms on GFS ensembles. Worth watching


  • #137
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    despite the generally very mild set up over the next few weeks there are still suggestions that we may get the odd short lived cooler day.

    The GFS plays around with some snow for us, of course this will get downgraded to nothing, but it's fun just to post them here to keep a check on things.

    Hints of wintry showers on Sunday, particularly in the west:
    120-574UK.GIF?07-12

    Sunday looks quite chilly and a sharp frost later that night:
    120-580UK.GIF?07-12

    Looks quite wintry in on the 15th of January for us with a possible widespread cold rain/sleet/snow event:

    198-574UK.GIF?07-12

    Looks chilly enough on the 15th especially in the north-west:
    192-580UK.GIF?07-12


  • #138
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Are they still forecasting a lot of rain from the weekend onwards?


  • #139
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Are those days windy or not.

    If they are windy there is zero chance of snow because then its just snow with millions of litres of mild atlantic water thrown on top


  • #140
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Are they still forecasting a lot of rain from the weekend onwards?

    This is what the ECM is showing starting with rainfall accumulation up to Fri ,

    to put in context.

    Should only be used as a very rough guide.


    30DYQsq.png


    Up to Tues 14th ,12.00

    sH0L0tG.png


    Up to Thurs 16th , 18.00

    MBjTX6v.png



    up to Fri 17th , 12.00

    lXo1SwH.png


  • #141
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    Today's output again is suggestive of headline making storm conditions next week. ECM has a monster storm hitting Thursday next. Various other permutations of severe storms on GFS ensembles. Worth watching


    Worth watching indeed .ECM, GFS and ICON showing very windy if not near storm conditions for next Monday, been fairly consistent now for a number of runs with this. ECM at the moment showing stronger winds ( gusting up to 120km/h and + overland ) but still a long way to go.

    Still outside 120hrs but would have to think after seeng the consistency over the last few days that it will be at least very windy.

    hdow9zH.png

    zrZ8NHi.png


    Weds and Thurs of next week showing possible windy weather also, ECM currently showing very stormy next Thurs but no doubt will see this chop and change over the coming days.

    udC6ESY.png

    Aepsa7D.png


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  • #142
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    definitely a shift towards colder weather from mid-January onwards, the NH Jet is gradually shifting south which will allow the Polar Maritime airflow to affect Ireland. not too cold i'd say 4 or 5 degrees above freezing during the day but wintry showers for the west and NW


  • #143
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    been following this since about last Saturday,consistently showing very strong winds/stormy conditions along the west coast at least. GFS 12z has a swathe of very strong winds around all coasts through next monday.



    ukgust.png


  • #144
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Lively week next week. Both ECM and GFS showing possibility of some strong winds around next Weds, timing and shape different for now.

    Also towards Fri next week the ECM is showing another windy spell and then the GFS goes for more rough weather after that for the weekend ( ECM only out to +240 but signs of more weather as well ) but that is way off out there for any certainty for such a mobile week as next week .

    In general cold next week, signs of wintry precipitation.

    Looking very wet at times in the Western half of the country and especially counties along Atlantic coasts.

    dnVX0Ao.png


    UITcZZc.png

    ZyNQZhd.png
    JOCY9yL.png

    anim_mna7.gif


    YWoyfbq.gif
    ZInHWKS.png


  • #145
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    gfs-0-126.png?12

    Nasty tight gradient on this depression for Tuesday on the 12Z GFS. Subject to change of course.

    We have a few bullets to dodge next week. Which we may well do, or equally could get hit with a storm.


  • #146
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    gfs-0-216.png?12

    gfs-1-228.png?12

    Little tentative signs of brief northerly outbreaks 9/10 days away. Nothing major but for coldies and snow bunnies it beats looking at those non stop westerlies that stretched around the globe from 0 hours to the last frame in FI for the last few weeks.


  • #147
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Last year it snowed on Jan 31st and the first Saturday in February and that was Winter. Prob something like that again here

    Though this Winter has been notable for Storm Elsa
    in Sligo which smashed our wooden fence blew down a tree and blew the roof off next door


  • #148
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    pauldry wrote: »
    Last year it snowed on Jan 31st and the first Saturday in February and that was Winter. Prob something like that again here

    Though this Winter has been notable for Storm Elsa
    in Sligo which smashed our wooden fence blew down a tree and blew the roof off next door

    The first Sunday in March brought the snowiest weather to Laois and the midlands. Lasted for the following Monday and some in the fields for a few days. That was our winter. Or what I remember of it anyway!

    It's still just the 9th January, I'm an eternal optimist so I'm hopefull that a fortnight from today 23rd of January, we'll be looking at completely different charts. Time is on our side but I suppose the trend isn't.

    Might ask Sryan, if he gets a chance to point out proper winter that occurred after very mild December and Januarys. I know 1947 only got going the last week of January. 2013 had wintry weather of note in February and particularly March. I suppose 2018 didn't get going till late Feb, then Emma. Most of my childhood winter memories from the 1980s had January and December snow, particularly January. 1982, 1983, 1985, 1987 all had wonderful January snow. 1991 had a fall on January 8th, and a proper easterly 6-10 February.


  • #149
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Winter of 2017/2018 was notable for the amount of snowfall events (six or seven IIRC) and some of these were generous snowfalls. One of the snowiest winters I can remember apart from Winter 2010/2011


  • #150
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Danno wrote: »
    Winter of 2017/2018 was notable for the amount of snowfall events (six or seven IIRC) and some of these were generous snowfalls. One of the snowiest winters I can remember apart from Winter 2010/2011

    True Danno. I forgot all the snow days in January especially on North westerlies.


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  • #151
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    True Danno. I forgot all the snow days in January especially on North westerlies.

    The December 10th 2017 (a Sunday) had a good fall of snow here and set the tone. St. Patrick's Day 2018 was another equally good fall of snow too.


This discussion has been closed.
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