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Inflation Predictions

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  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    if it goes up by the same amount in the next six months the world is goosed. 2% inflation is great for our debts, with central banks balancing. 3% inflation means higher interest rates and less borrowing. Our economy is a very high stack of cards being held together by borrowed money. It'll all come crashing down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Zenify wrote: »
    if it goes up by the same amount in the next six months the world is goosed. 2% inflation is great for our debts, with central banks balancing. 3% inflation means higher interest rates and less borrowing. Our economy is a very high stack of cards being held together by borrowed money. It'll all come crashing down.

    if central banks decide its best to raise rates, we truly are screwed, we ll have economies crashing all over the shop, so hopefully they dont decide to go full retard on that one. again, we need to keep ourselves in check, we need a major surge in public borrowing, to get the planet moving, if we default back to private sector borrowing, we truly are screwed, as 08 has shown, its by far the more vulnerable money supply


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I'm not overly concerned about inflation, we need some element of it, we need it to be able to stay on top of our debts

    I'm not overly worried, no.

    If the inflation is a symptom of a strong recovery, great.

    However, the price level is already way too high in Ireland.

    I am worried that further increases in an already excessive price level will erode our competitiveness.


    In France, a GP charges 25, and a medical consultant charges 50.

    Or medical / legal / property costs are way too high.

    These are mostly microeconomic issues.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    again, we need to keep ourselves in check, we need a major surge in public borrowing, to get the planet moving


    There has been massive public deficits during 2020 and 2021.

    There is huge borrowing happening every week/month.

    What you suggest is needed, has happened already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    again, we need to keep ourselves in check, we need a major surge in public borrowing, to get the planet moving, if

    You will be happy to hear that during 2020 there was massive public borrowing in Ireland.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsa/governmentfinancestatisticsapril2021/


    We ran an 18.4 bn euro GG fiscal deficit.

    That is 350 million per week budget deficit, or 50 million per day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Geuze wrote: »
    I'm not overly worried, no.

    If the inflation is a symptom of a strong recovery, great.

    However, the price level is already way too high in Ireland.

    I am worried that further increases in an already excessive price level will erode our competitiveness.


    In France, a GP charges 25, and a medical consultant charges 50.

    Or medical / legal / property costs are way too high.

    These are mostly microeconomic issues.
    Geuze wrote: »
    There has been massive public deficits during 2020 and 2021.

    There is huge borrowing happening every week/month.

    What you suggest is needed, has happened already.
    Geuze wrote: »
    You will be happy to hear that during 2020 there was massive public borrowing in Ireland.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsa/governmentfinancestatisticsapril2021/


    We ran an 18.4 bn euro GG fiscal deficit.

    That is 350 million per week budget deficit, or 50 million per day.

    ....and yes, if we dont keep the bulk of our debts on the public balance sheet, theyll more than likely move out into the private sector, further inflating asset prices, in particular in relation to property, we ve done this, it doesnt work!

    and yet again, we have to stop this in built panic over deficits, they are simply the public entity of the money supply, in order to have a growing and expanding economy, we must also have a growing and expanding money supply to do so, i.e. we must have rising debts, but we keep defaulting towards the private sector to do this, resulting in credit fueled booms, and subsequent busts


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    Ireland inflation:
    ireland-inflation-cpi.png?s=iecpiyoy&v=202104302315V20200908&d1=20190501&d2=20210501


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    Good summary of the state of Europe - worth skimming through in full (looks like it was a liveblog, rather than proper article, though):
    Euro-Area Economy Slips Into Double-Dip Recession: GDP Update
    The euro-area economy slid into a double-dip recession at the start of the year as strict coronavirus lockdowns across the region kept many businesses shuttered and consumers wary to spend.

    Reports from some of its biggest members show how far behind the European Union is in recovering from the pandemic amid a slow vaccine rollout. Output in the 19-nation euro area was down 0.6% in the first quarter and declined at nearly three times that pace in Germany.

    In contrast, the U.S. posted annualized growth of 6.4% -- fueled by a rush of household spending.
    ...
    In the meantime, the European Central Bank is maintaining a “significantly” higher pace of bond purchases to shield the region from higher global borrowing costs that are spilling over from the faster U.S. recovery.
    ...
    While a pick-up in vaccinations will allow for a gradual withdrawal of restrictions in the coming months, ECB chief economist Philip Lane has warned that the ensuing rebound doesn’t mean there’s a full recovery yet. Inflation pressures are still too weak for policy makers’ comfort, so monetary stimulus will continue to be needed for a long time to come.
    ...
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/french-economy-returned-to-growth-before-new-curbs-gdp-update


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Dismal inflation numbers out of the US - highest monthly inflation since 1981. Who’d have thought we can just print money ad infinitum with no ill effects. The markets will really panic when it goes up again next month. And the month after.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Biden needs to cool the jets.

    Companies struggling to get workers as they're getting great money for not working.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Pussyhands wrote:
    Companies struggling to get workers as they're getting great money for not working.


    ... Or maybe some inflation may cause some employers to increase pay

    'great money', I'd imagine many are still lining up for food banks, even while receiving this money!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11563155/4-02072021-AP-EN.pdf/fe0a86c1-caca-a4cf-ed56-7640c7f0ca7b?t=1625151901425


    This worries me.


    Industrial producer prices up by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU

    Up by 9.6% in both the euro area and the EU compared with May 2020

    In May 2021, industrial producer prices rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU, compared with April 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
    In April 2021, prices increased by 0.9% in both the euro area and the EU.


    In May 2021, compared with May 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 9.6% in both the euro area and the EU


    And it's not just energy prices.


  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Yes it does feel like we're heading into a period of deflation. Some of the data out of China not looking so good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Yes it does feel like we're heading into a period of deflation. Some of the data out of China not looking so good.

    Do you mean inflatiom?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Inflation ramping up. Higher than expected figures out of the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Interesting looking back at the original predictions late last year!

    Inflation has certainly ramped up!



  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭geo88


    Getting close to 4.5% in Ireland as well from the looks of it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    I never heard so much talk about inflation in the media lately. I still think it will level of and economy slowing with even more qe 22\23.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ah yea, the ould inflationistas are out in force at the moment, god love them, its amazing how they rarely talk about the private sector money supply, the credit supply, but always seem to panic over the central bank supply! id say it probably will level off eventually, but we re probably stuck with supply side issues for some time, and i also suspect you could be right with economic slow down, theres simply too much debt out there now, particularly private debt, we cant keep going like this!



  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    I just don't get how people can say inflation is here to stay. Yes no doubt people have extra money to spend due to stimulus and savings from covid but as you say I think its all about supply constraints and reduced inventories from covid which will ease but how soon I don't know. Also companies purchasing goods is all over the place, buying way more than they need just to make sure what they need arrives, this could possibly lead to a glut sooner than we think. All very complicated and hard to know how it plays but it wouldn't surprise me if we see the panic buying in the UK in September become more widespread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ah worries of inflation are historically imprinted on our brains, we have a tendency to panic over it due to the few major inflationary issues that have occurred globally, and largely ignore the fact, we ve actually experienced little or no inflation for years now, even when money creation in both the public and private domains, has exploded over those years, i.e. fiat and credit.

    im expecting the usual christmas bonanza, but im also expecting a significant slump after it, and i dont think it ll be good for many sme's, many simply wont survive, thats if it falls that way of course



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Inflation is becoming a feedback loop.

    Three.ie are bringing in 4.5% annual increase now. Others will follow.

    That means inflation rate increases which means others will increase their prices and the rate goes up.

    Inflation is not "transitory" like the EU and US idiots say. They are happy to raid us for 5% of our money a year just so they can still give cheap loans to governments who are spending stupidly.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Jerome Powell Ditches ‘Transitory’ Tag, Paves Way for Rate Hike

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/powell-ditches-transitory-inflation-tag-paves-way-for-rate-hike



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    The markets will not permit him to raise rates , this is a turning point .



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...and cheap loans to corporations, who in turn are buying back shares with them, is a good way to spend money?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    🚨 🚨 🚨 US Inflation Surges To Near 40-Year High At 6.8% In November 2021🚨 🚨 🚨 




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Definitely no inflation happening 👀



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Philip Lane talking about inflation. He says this is a pandemic cycle and will end next year! So if this is a pandemic cycle why didn't you tell us this was going to happen back in 2020?

    You can see he doesn't believe what he's saying. It's rather worrying. If they convince themselves this is going to end next year then they won't do anything if inflation keeps going up. Interest rates need to rise ASAP!

    Even the yanks are more honest than the eu and have said inflation isn't temporary which is why they're raising rates!



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