Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2017 7:51am

Sunday, 17 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some fog or mist will gradually lift this morning, and then most places will become sunny with cloudy intervals, with a few brief isolated showers possible in the east, and eventually highs will warm up to 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with fog patches or mist developing, local frost, lows 1 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder after another rather frosty start in some eastern inland locations, and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warmer, highs 18-20 C. Outbreaks of rain likely by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery, showers, turning cooler late afternoon west, evening to overnight east. Highs 16-18 C. About 15 mm of rain on average, gusty southwest winds during a frontal passage mid-afternoon west to late evening east coast. This may develop into a squall line in Leinster.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending, partly cloudy and cool, highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with rain, strong southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled and occasional strong winds, especially late in the month.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high of 22 C. Rain is moving in for Sunday here. Meanwhile, Jose looks set to move up towards New England but most guidance keeps it out to sea with just some large waves reaching land. Two more tropical storms have formed; Lee was first to appear and now trails stronger Maria both moving west in the tropical Atlantic. Lee appears likely to dissipate soon but Maria could become a strong hurricane tracking just slightly south of Irma's recent rampage but with direct hits on Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before turning north to follow still-meandering Jose on its final loop. Eventually, the latest guidance has strong remnants of both Jose and Maria affecting Ireland on the 28th and then the 30th of this month; I mention this more as a point of interest than an actual forecast and no doubt there will be much different outcomes in the next few days but it probably is a reliable sign of a windy interval at the end of the month perhaps from less tropical systems.

M.T. Cranium · 18-09-2017 6:46am

Monday, 18 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog or mist gradually dissipating, sunny intervals to partly cloudy and milder by afternoon, with highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in eastern counties, lows 4 to 8 C. Otherwise cloudy with drizzle near west and north coasts, lows 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warmer, highs 18-20 C. Scattered light rain or drizzle mainly north and west in the morning, followed by outbreaks of heavier rain likely by late in the day into the overnight hours.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery, showers, turning cooler by mid-day west, afternoon to early evening east. Highs 16-18 C. About 15 mm of rain on average, gusty southwest winds during a frontal passage mid-day west to late afternoon east coast. This may develop into a squall line in Leinster.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending, partly cloudy and cool, highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, patchy light rain developing, highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with rain although this may hold off for eastern counties until late in the day, strong southwest winds developing (50-80 km/hr), highs near 17 or 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers, not as windy, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and eventually becoming quite windy again ... the latest guidance shows remnants of Maria passing to the north around 30 September but Jose loses its identity earlier while transferring energy to a system that is still timed for the 28th, so that period towards the end of the month is still looking quite windy.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain at times and a high of about 16 C. Hurricane Jose is still on track to give the northeast U.S. coastal gales and high waves with most of the stronger weather offshore; Maria unfortunately is gearing up to become a major hurricane soon, possibly as early as this evening or tomorrow morning as it passes near Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique, and within two days threatening a major impact on Puerto Rico. The further path of this hurricane will probably follow Jose's recent path but could veer closer to the east coast of the U.S. at some point around next weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 19-09-2017 7:04am

Tuesday, 19 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and rather warm with occasional light rain in western and northern counties, moderate southerly winds increasing to 50-70 km/hr later, and highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, occasional rain, fog developing over hills, lows 11 to 13 C. About 5 to 15 mm of rain likely.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud after morning rain clears east, then further showers likely, moderate southwest to west winds, highs near 16 C. Some locally gusty winds could develop.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, colder with rain and hail showers likely, lows 7-9 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain could be heavy in the early morning, some clearing by afternoon, rather windy and humid with temperatures steady near 10 C overnight then rising to about 15 or 16 C by afternoon.

SATURDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain more likely in western counties, rather warm with strong southerly winds, highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain rather warm and cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs could be close to 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The month will end with increasingly unsettled conditions and there is some chance of very strong winds developing.

My local weather was partly to mostly cloudy with showers, and locally some hail that fell on higher hills in the city and coated the ground like snow for some time.

Hurricane Maria moved across Dominica as a destructive cat-5 storm overnight, and there will likely be some significant wind damage and storm surges. Southern parts of Guadeloupe (Basse-Terre) are now being swept by cat-3 winds as the eye passes about 30 miles offshore. The hurricane is now heading towards the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane Jose lurks off the mid-Atlantic states and is expected to spread strong winds and rain onto some coastal areas of the northeast U.S., then perform another loop while Maria approaches the east coast. Although the models generally keep Maria over the Atlantic, there is some concern about it making a landfall. The same models show Maria's final stages near Iceland and strong southwest winds approaching Ireland around the 29th or 30th (no damaging wind gusts are shown).

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2017 6:41am

Wednesday, 20 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showery rain will continue to make gradual progress east, and will intensify around mid-day in Leinster, with heavy rain for several hours this afternoon in the inland southeast and Dublin region. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will increase to 15-25 mm for those counties between Waterford and Dublin. Gradual clearing in Atlantic coastal counties, and gusty winds developing as the rainfall ends in central then eastern counties. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals followed by showers, lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, colder with rain and hail showers likely, lows 7-9 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain could be heavy in the early morning, some clearing by afternoon, rather windy and humid with temperatures steady near 10 C overnight then rising to about 15 or 16 C by afternoon.

SATURDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain more likely in western counties, rather warm with strong southerly winds, highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain rather warm and cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs could be close to 20 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with showers, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, possibly very windy around 29th-30th if remnants of Maria pass close to Ireland. The latest guidance suggests this remnant may approach the southwest portions of Ireland before diving southeast into France.

My local weather on Tuesday was rather cold, with occasional showers, and highs only about 14 C. Jose has spread rain and cloud into coastal New England, Long Island and New York City. This may continue as Jose slowly weakens and meanders around offshore. It is now downgraded to a tropical storm. Powerful cat-5 Maria has sideswiped St Croix (part of the U.S. Virgin Islands) with winds of about cat-2 intensity, but is now poised to deliver a lethal blow to Puerto Rico with a combination of damaging winds, storm surge and very heavy rainfalls over 500 mm over the inland hills. This will ramp up from now to daybreak there, and peak during the morning hours. Maria will then move towards the east coast of the U.S., but still no definite indications of a landfall, instead Maria absorbs what's left over from Jose and the combined storm races across the Atlantic towards Ireland -- it should be emphasized that no damaging wind gusts or heavy rainfalls are indicated for Ireland (around 30th) at present.

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2017 7:26am

Thursday, 21 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, some decent sunny intervals but scattered showers developing with some hail possible (more likely in Connacht and Ulster), highs about 13 or 14 C north, 15 or 16 C south and east.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain towards morning with some heavy bursts in south and west, 5 to 15 mm by morning. Temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain could be heavy until late morning with fog especially at higher elevations in the north and west, followed by some clearing by afternoon, becoming rather windy and humid with temperatures 10 to 13 C in the rain then rising to about 15 to 17 C by afternoon. Note: autumn equinox at 2103h IST.

SATURDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain more likely in western counties, rather warm with strong southerly winds, highs near 18 C. This rain may become heavy (at least in western counties) but confidence in that is moderate so far.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain rather warm and cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs could be close to 20 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with showers, highs near 16 C.

The FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more unsettled and at times quite windy weather to the end of the month. Remnants of Hurricane Maria could still make an appearance by about Sunday 1st of October but this remains quite speculative, and so far no indications of anything too volatile. Temperatures in the outlook period should remain a bit warmer than average.

My local weather on Wednesday improved slowly from overcast with light rain to partly cloudy and the high was about 15 C. Little change in the outlook for both Jose and Maria (the name Olazabal comes to mind for some reason), compared to yesterday's summary -- Jose appears destined to fade out gradually then Maria will sweep away the remnants and more than likely track past Newfoundland into the central Atlantic late next week. But there is perhaps a 30% chance of a landfall in North America and then a track more towards Greenland.

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2017 7:26am

Thursday, 21 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, some decent sunny intervals but scattered showers developing with some hail possible (more likely in Connacht and Ulster), highs about 13 or 14 C north, 15 or 16 C south and east.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain towards morning with some heavy bursts in south and west, 5 to 15 mm by morning. Temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain could be heavy until late morning with fog especially at higher elevations in the north and west, followed by some clearing by afternoon, becoming rather windy and humid with temperatures 10 to 13 C in the rain then rising to about 15 to 17 C by afternoon. Note: autumn equinox at 2103h IST.

SATURDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain more likely in western counties, rather warm with strong southerly winds, highs near 18 C. This rain may become heavy (at least in western counties) but confidence in that is moderate so far.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain rather warm and cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs could be close to 20 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with showers, highs near 16 C.

The FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more unsettled and at times quite windy weather to the end of the month. Remnants of Hurricane Maria could still make an appearance by about Sunday 1st of October but this remains quite speculative, and so far no indications of anything too volatile. Temperatures in the outlook period should remain a bit warmer than average.

My local weather on Wednesday improved slowly from overcast with light rain to partly cloudy and the high was about 15 C. Little change in the outlook for both Jose and Maria (the name Olazabal comes to mind for some reason), compared to yesterday's summary -- Jose appears destined to fade out gradually then Maria will sweep away the remnants and more than likely track past Newfoundland into the central Atlantic late next week. But there is perhaps a 30% chance of a landfall in North America and then a track more towards Greenland.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2017 7:17am

Friday, 22 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain will soon be mainly confined to east Ulster with a slow clearing trend although additional light showers will probably continue to early or mid-afternoon in parts of Leinster. Watch for some flooded sections of roadways in north central counties as 10-20 mm of rain has fallen in just three or four hours recently. By afternoon, some sunny breaks, more frequent in west, and a slight easing of the strong southerly winds, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Welcome to autumn, the equinox is timed for 2103h IST. The night will be quite mild with strong southerly winds redeveloping and rain edging onto the west coast, lows 10-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain more likely in western counties, with a risk of some heavier falls near high ground in Connacht and west Ulster, also west Munster, locally 20-30 mm but generally 5-10 mm, less in east coast counties where the rain may be patchy and fragmenting by evening when it arrives. It will be rather warm with strong southerly winds 60-90 km/hr, and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain rather warm and partly cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs could be close to 20 C. There could be a few remnant showers in the north on Sunday but almost dry for some other regions, and Monday appears set to be quite a fine day with morning fog and mist patches lifting to sunshine.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers late in the day, becoming windy overnight into Wednesday. Highs both days about 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite windy by late Wednesday (not Jose but a low that forms northeast of where Jose is expected to die out), and also windy on the weekend of 30th into 1st of October, that from remnant low of Maria now (once again) expected to pass north of Ireland. Timing on this could change and there is still a small chance that Maria will take an entirely different path.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with some overcast spells in the afternoon, and highs near 18 C. Maria is passing east of Turks and Caicos today with moderate effects on most islands but stronger damaging winds on outer eastern islands. From there, Maria is expected to head north, brushing the east coast of the U.S. with 20% chance of a landfall, then swerving east and heading north of Bermuda into the north-central Atlantic by Friday 29th or Saturday 30th.

M.T. Cranium · 23-09-2017 8:00am

Saturday, 23 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and windy, especially over Atlantic coastal counties (southerly 60-90 km/hr there, about 40-60 km/hr in most other places but strong gusts possible near all coasts and on hills) ... rain will be sporadic with some brief heavy downpours in west-central counties, 5-15 mm could fall but some places will be drier than that. Highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming more confined to Ulster and Leinster, mild, foggy in places, lows 12 to 14 C. Strong winds slowly diminishing.

SUNDAY ... Occasional showers, more frequent near Irish Sea coasts, some sun in western counties. Highs near 18 or 19 C. Not as windy.

MONDAY ... Morning fog patches or mist, becoming sunny, hazy and rather warm. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers by afternoon, highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, occasional rain, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, some strong winds possible at times. The remnant low of Maria is expected near Ireland around 2-3 October now (although it may shift back closer in timing). This could lead to some strong wind gusts but nothing extreme is indicated so far and some guidance weakens this low more than other models, before it gets to western Europe.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with afternoon high cloud, highs near 18 C.

Maria has moved past the eastern Bahamas and is likely to come very close to the east coast of the U.S. by mid-week although it may not quite move inland (hurricane force northeast winds may brush eastern NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, Long Island and MA.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2017 7:38am

Sunday, 24 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A misty start with a few left over showers gradually moving away from the east coast, then later a few more light showers or patchy drizzle in Connacht, but otherwise a relatively dry day with a few breaks developing in the overcast by afternoon. Highs 16 to 19 C with light to moderate south-southwest breezes.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, cool, but some dense fog patches may develop towards dawn, especially inland in valleys. Lows 4 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Morning fog patches or mist, becoming sunny, hazy and rather warm. Lows 4 to 8 C and highs 17 to 20 C. Some persistent low cloud or fog is possible in a few coastal areas as winds will remain very light all day.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers by afternoon or evening mainly western counties, morning lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, occasional rain, likely to be heavy in west Munster around sunrise, with 30 mm in parts of Kerry, then 15-20 mm further east across southern counties, 10 to 15 mm further north. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs near 16 C. Winds increasing to southerly and veering to southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, possible severe gusts in parts of northwest. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled over the weekend of 30 September and 1st of October, but remnants of Maria are expected to be near Ireland around Monday 2nd or Tuesday 3rd, so there could be another interval of strong winds then.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 19 C. It has been very warm in central and eastern parts of the U.S. and southern Ontario, highs reached 35 C in Chicago (ffourth consecutive day above 32 C). Hurricane Maria is moving steadily towards North Carolina and may cross some of the outer barrier islands before swerving east towards the central Atlantic.

(added at 0830h) __ Guidance on the future course of Maria seems complicated by the redevelopment of dormant Tropical Storm Lee which has come back to life east of Bermuda. Some guidance suggests that Lee will become a very small hurricane and get embedded in the outer bands of Maria's circulation by about Thursday 28th, then a combined storm may move northeast towards Ireland with most of Maria's energy sweeping past well to the north around Monday 2nd October, but some of Lee's energy also contributing to a secondary low near southwest Ireland by late Monday 2nd or early Tuesday 3rd. Confidence remains low since any interaction with land by Tuesday night or Wednesday could change the scenario considerably and Lee's actual path seems subject to high uncertainty as well. Meanwhile there is still some remnant energy from Jose off New England to complicate matters further.

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2017 7:08am

Monday, 25 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog patches or mist (some locally dense fog possible), becoming sunny, hazy and rather warm. Slowly warming to afternoon highs of 17 to 20 C. Some persistent low cloud or fog is possible in a few coastal areas as winds will remain very light all day.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy east, some fog will return, lows 5 to 9 C. Overcast west with some light rain or drizzle possible, lows 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers by afternoon or evening mainly western counties, and highs near 18 C. Winds gradually increasing to southerly 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, occasional rain, likely to be heavy in west Munster around sunrise, with 30 mm in parts of Kerry, then 15-20 mm further east across southern counties, 10 to 15 mm further north. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs near 16 C. Winds increasing to southerly and veering to southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, possible severe gusts in parts of northwest. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled over the weekend of 30 September and 1st of October, with strong winds possible at times Sunday into Monday as remnants of a complex mixture of Maria and Lee arrive in western Europe. Too early to be very confident of details on timing or track.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast and warm with highs about 21 C. Some rain is expected here later Monday. The heat continues over central and eastern regions, with another record high (33 C) at Chicago on Sunday. Hurricane Maria has weakened somewhat and latest guidance gives a lower chance of any really significant land interactions as the decaying core sweeps past Cape Hatteras on Wednesday. Small but intense Hurricane Lee is slowly circling around getting ready to join forces with Maria around Friday 29th north of the Azores. The models are having trouble with this complex scenario but there is a risk of a strong wind event in some part of western Europe depending on how things actually come together. The most likely timing for that is Sunday night (1st Oct) or Monday -- the winds predicted on Friday 29th are from a different system in the normal flow of frontal systems in the jet stream.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2017 7:53am

Tuesday, 26 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud with just a few brighter intervals this morning, showers by afternoon or evening mainly in western counties, and highs near 18 C. Winds gradually increasing to southerly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy, winds southerly 50-70 km/hr, rain spreading east, heavy at times in parts of Munster. About 20 mm of rain likely in some parts of west Munster, 10-15 mm elsewhere, but 5 mm north Leinster and east Ulster. Mild, lows about 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, rain continuing to spread further east, likely to be heavy in west Munster around sunrise, with 30 mm in parts of Kerry, then 15-20 mm further east across southern counties, 10 to 15 mm further north, followed by partial clearing spreading into the west by late morning and east by afternoon. Highs near 16 C. Winds increasing to southerly and veering to southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Rain overnight into early Friday, 10-15 mm likely.

FRIDAY ... Windy with occasional rain followed by scattered showers, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr with possible severe gusts in parts of northwest. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued windy at times into first week of October with temperatures generally rather mild, highs 15 to 18 C.

My local weather on Monday was wet to start the day, and cloudy but dry by afternoon, quite warm with highs near 20 C. The very warm spell continued over central and eastern regions, and Hurricane Maria continues to make slow progress north but chances are now quite small for any sort of landfall, just a coastal indirect hit near Cape Hatteras. Very small but powerful Lee is circling around to get into the jet stream ahead of Maria; the combined storm will move towards Ireland next weekend but models diverge on a track -- the European model shows Maria failing to develop very much beyond the central portions of the Atlantic and remnants diving southeast into France and northern Spain; Ireland would escape any real effects as a strong northwest wind develops late Sunday and early Monday. But some of the other models bring a stronger storm towards Donegal Bay and very strong southwest winds gusting to 100 km/hr would then be possible (also late Sunday into Monday). A more certain forecast on this should be available by mid-week.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2017 7:25am

Wednesday, 27 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain will continue to move eastwards through Munster and into south Leinster, some local roadway flooding may have begun in Kerry and Cork and this will perhaps spread further east as 15-25 mm falls in short periods of time. Further north rainfall rates are lower but 10-20 mm can be expected. Fog will develop for a time, then skies will begin to clear gradually from the southwest, with winds veering from strong southerly (50-80 km/hr) to moderate westerly (30-50 km/hr). A mixture of cloud and sunshine with a few passing showers will prevail by afternoon, with highs about 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, quite cold inland, lows near freezing to 5 C with scattered frost likely. Increasing cloud near southwest coasts.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals for Leinster and Ulster, mostly cloudy in Munster and Connacht where strong southerly winds 50-80 km/hr will develop by afternoon, accompanied by rain (another 10-20 mm likely). This rain will be moving into eastern counties by late afternoon or early evening. Highs 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Strong southwest wind gusts to 90 km/hr likely in the early morning hours especially in coastal Connacht and west Ulster, rain tapering off to showers, partial clearing by Friday afternoon as winds ease slowly. Temperatures steady in the range of 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Passing showers, breezy to windy, highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY present a choice according to different model guidance. The American GFS and some other models bring Maria's remnant low (with Lee embedded in the circulation) across northwestern counties with potential for very strong winds gusting to 110 km/hr, and an interval of heavy rain, with highs of 16 or 17 C. The European model is sticking to a much different outcome where Maria and Lee both die out rapidly just before reaching Europe, with remnants of Lee near the south coast by Sunday, and Maria's weakening circulation diving southeast towards southern France and northern Spain on Monday. The results of that scenario for Ireland would be moderate west to northwest winds by Sunday and strong northwest winds on Monday, with highs near 17 C on Sunday and 14 C on Monday. All guidance seems to agree that rather warm weather will prevail after this problem period is resolved, with temperatures looking 2-3 degrees above October normal values for some time.

My local weather on Tuesday turned sunny during the morning and it warmed up to around 23 C. We are expecting a high near 26 C today and again on Thursday. The central and eastern heat wave continued but cloud and some rain and wind from Maria have spread into eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Once Maria (now only a tropical storm) turns east, the void will be filled by the warm air mass and that will allow a cold front to move south quite rapidly by Thursday, bringing an end to the week-long unseasonable heat wave. Lee has defied the odds and reached a strong cat-2 intensity, but the circulation is so small that less powerful Maria will be able to absorb Lee's energy into its extratropical low north of the Azores by about Saturday. That is when the forecast uncertainty already mentioned for Sunday and Monday begins

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2017 6:59am

Thursday, 28 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for Leinster and Ulster, mostly cloudy in Munster and Connacht where strong southerly winds 50-80 km/hr will develop by afternoon, accompanied by rain (another 10-20 mm likely). This rain will be moving into eastern counties by late afternoon or early evening. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become more concentrated in eastern counties as winds begin to shift to the southwest over Atlantic coastal cuunties. A further 10-15 mm of rain will fall in the east where winds may remain strong most of the night. Lows will reach 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Strong southwest wind gusts to 90 km/hr likely in the early morning hours especially in coastal Connacht and west Ulster, rain tapering off to showers, partial clearing by Friday afternoon as winds ease slowly. Temperatures steady in the range of 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Passing showers, breezy to windy with heavier rain likely by late in the day, winds peaking around 50-80 km/hr from the southwest, lows 8 to 10 C and highs near 15 C although 18 C possible in the south. Rainfalls of 15 to 30 mm are possible but details on this may change (in either direction) as very small but powerful Hurricane Lee gets rapidly shredded by the jet stream and forced into this already strong frontal system.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, windy at times with potential for gusts to 100 km/hr, occasional showers, as Maria's energy is absorbed about 24 hours after Lee disappears from the maps. Highs will be around 17 C.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY to FRIDAY 2-6 Oct) ... It may continue windy and the timing is uncertain because Maria could take some time to become fully absorbed by the Sunday weather system, but eventually winds will become more northwesterly. It may not necessarily cool down as much as it usually would in a northwest wind because subtropical high pressure is building strongly behind the dying hurricanes, and so the northwest flow just leads to an interval of unusually warm weather later in the first week of October. Once again, details may change but it may be as warm as 20 C in some regions by mid-week.

My local weather on Wednesday was exceptionally warm and sunny aside from drifting coastal fog banks, highs reaching 27 C away from the water (about 18 C at the beach). The eastern and central warm spell is gradually ending now that Maria has made the turn eastward and is moving away from the Carolinas. Cooler air is slowly pushing south from northern Ontario and Manitoba into the Great Lakes region and will keep pushing slowly south until all of this record warmth is driven out to sea (where it can start heading towards Europe in the jet stream).

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2017 7:47am

Friday, 29 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals to start the day in many parts of the country with strong and gusty southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, easing slightly in the south and east by afternoon, but probably remaining quite strong all day near the west coast and in parts of the north. Scattered showers with some thunder and hail will develop near the west coast by late morning and will move in waves across the western and central portions, tending to become less active near the east coast. Highs 15 to 17.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy, some cloudy intervals and occasional light rain, mild, lows 9 to 12.

SATURDAY ... Windy at times, outbreaks of rain that could become heavy especially near the south and west coasts later in the day, highs 15 to 17.

SUNDAY ... Windy with strong and possibly severe gusts developing, showers or periods of rain, quite mild. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY ... Rain may continue for some time depending on how quickly remnants of Maria are absorbed into the complex frontal systems in place by Sunday night, and strong to severe wind gusts could develop any time from mid-day Sunday to late Monday depending on this timing (which remains quite uncertain, the frontal waves have to deal with Lee and then Maria, and both of them have not passed the Azores yet). The best guess I can make is that the day will be windy with some rain, some brighter intervals, and temperatures steady around 14 to 16.

TUESDAY ... There is a slight chance that remnants of Maria will continue to affect Ireland, but eventually skies should clear and winds should ease as higher pressure drifts closer from the central Atlantic. Lows 8 to 10 and highs 14 to 17.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are likely to be quite mild, but could be rather cloudy away from the brighter southeast which will get more of the benefit of strong high pressure passing south of Munster towards France. Rain could develop further north especially around Donegal and Derry. Highs will generally be a bit warmer than average, around 16 to 18 C. Nights will probably be quite mild (10 to 12) unless some clear patches develop in the south where it could be briefly colder than 5 or 6 degrees before dawn. Winds will vary from light southwesterly in the inland south, to strong south-southwesterly in Ulster and Connacht.

My local weather was once again sunny and exceptionally warm, in fact hot away from the seafront where I tried to spend much of my time. Temperatures ranged from 17 near the shore to 29 inland. Winds have been very light and there's a smog layer trapped above the eastern part of the city and further inland but otherwise visibility here is unlimited with Mount Baker the only snow-covered peak in view (rare to see some of the higher peaks in the more local mountains generally bare of snow).

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2017 7:33am

Saturday, 30 September, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

No large changes in the forecast but there remains some uncertainty about the fate of Maria which is a steadily weakening tropical storm well to the northeast of Bermuda now. Lee has been shredded by its encounter with the jet stream on Friday and its energy has been redistributed into the frontal systems now approaching in waves from the southwest. There is nothing much left of Lee's circulation now. Maria may still fail to merge with the frontal waves before falling apart southwest of Ireland. If you remember the discussion about different models and their solutions, the European model did better (no big surprise) and the other models have begun to converge on its original solution.

TODAY ... Some brighter intervals mainly this morning or early afternoon in north central and eastern counties, as cloud and some outbreaks of rain (5-10 mm) move through Munster into south Leinster. Elsewhere, showers will be lighter and more dispersed. Highs 14 to 17 C. Winds occasionally gusty from southwest but stronger by tonight.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild with rain at times, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, about 10 mm of rain and lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with showers but some brighter intervals by afternoon, winds southwest 60-90 km/hr with an interval of stronger gusts possible around Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with intervals of heavy rain from early morning to mid-day, heavier in the south (15-25 mm possible), clearing late in the day, as winds veer from southwest to northwest 50-80 km/hr. There is still a slight risk of stronger winds from early morning to mid-day, if Maria remains intact and also if the remnants "phase" well with the frontal system.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, mostly cloudy north, mild. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be rather calm days in the south, moderate southwest winds further north, and fog may be widespread in the overnight and early morning hours especially for the south, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for some rain at times but continuing quite mild for early October.

My local weather on Friday changed rapidly to wet and then cool as two cold fronts passed during the morning and then afternoon hours. It began to clear by sunset. The high was about 18 C before noon.

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2017 7:28am

Sunday, 1st of October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and mild with occasional drizzle or light rain, some of which may redevelop this afternoon in the northwest, but also some sunny breaks by mid-day further south, as winds slowly veer from southerly to south-westerly 50-80 km/hr. There may be some stronger gusts close to Donegal Bay by afternoon. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, some rain at times in the north, moderate to strong westerly winds and lows 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY ... Some clearing north of a Galway-Dublin line but staying overcast in north Connacht and most of Ulster where some rain may continue, also overcast for most southern counties with an interval of rain (from remnants of Maria energizing the front), highs 14 to 16 C. Winds moderate west to northwest in the northern half of the country, backing to northeast for a time near the south coast, not expected to be very strong though. Rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm in some places mainly close to south and also northwest coasts.

TUESDAY ... Clearing, light to moderate west to northwest breezes, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing for west and north, more sunshine in south and east. Lows 2 to 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled later in the week, turning a bit cooler, then about a week of rather mild and mostly cloudy weather with small amounts of rain from time to time, highs often close to 15 C. Not much frost is expected in this pattern, if any occurs it would most likely be in the inland south where skies will more frequently be clear.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with light rain and chilly with highs only reaching 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2017 7:30am

Monday, 2 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain (5-15 mm potential) will slide east across Munster and may brush parts of south Leinster by mid-day, but a little further north there will be some breaks in the overcast, from about Galway and Mayo to Dublin and Meath. Further north again, a separate area of showers will bring 2-5 mm rainfalls through the day. Not as windy as Sunday, although parts of the north will continue quite gusty (westerly 50-80 km/hr there). Highs near 14 C north, 17 C where any sunshine develops, and 15 or 16 in the rain across the south. That should begin to clear southeast by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr abating somewhat after midnight, lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool. Highs 13 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The south and east may remain dry most of the day after a clear and cold start, with sunshine dimmed by increasing cloud in the afternoon. The north and west will be overcast all day with rain developing, becoming heavy across parts of north Connacht and west Ulster (20 mm potential). Morning lows will range from 2 to 6 C in the south and east, but 8 to 11 C west and north. Highs in most regions will be 15 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending across the north, remnant showers pushing southeast into Leinster before clearing, then most places partly cloudy and rather cool and breezy with morning lows 8 to 10 C and afternoon highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Some sunny intervals, warmer in Munster but remaining rather cool elsewhere as a frontal wave develops and tracks southeast bringing rain to most locations east of a Mayo to Waterford track, morning lows 5 to 8 C and afternoon highs near 18 C in parts of Munster, 11 to 14 C further north and east.

OUTLOOK ... Milder and mostly dry from Saturday 7th to Monday 9th, highs 16 to 19, not much frost potential but if any occurs it would be in the inland south. That nice spell of weather will gradually become more unsettled at times although it should stay generally mild with just one or two brief intrusions of colder air; the average temperature for the first half of October will likely be 1 or 2 degrees above the normal values, and it likely won't be as wet as September but closer to average.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and warmer with highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-10-2017 7:23am

Tuesday, 3 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals for the south, highs 13 to 16 C; overcast for the north with occasional drizzle, highs 11 to 14 C. Winds generally light westerly.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in the south, lows 3 to 7 C; overcast for central and northern counties, lows 7 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy in the south but with a few brighter intervals, generally dry; overcast with occasional light rain central and northern counties, rain becoming heavier by evening especially near Donegal hills. Highs 14 to 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain moving quickly south during the early morning hours, followed by partial clearing and moderate blustery northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C with highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY to about MONDAY will bring some mainly dry and occasionally sunny weather with some cloudy intervals, temperatures near normal, highs 14 to 16 C and some slight frosts over the inland south, otherwise lows mainly 4 to 7 C.

The further outlook calls for cooler and more unsettled, windy weather around mid-month.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and while it was cool to start, fairly pleasant mid-afternoon with highs of 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-10-2017 7:01am

Wednesday, 4 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy in the south but with a few brighter intervals, generally dry; overcast with occasional light rain central and northern counties, rain becoming heavier by afternoon and evening especially in northwest (15-25 mm), some flooding potential near Donegal hills. Highs 14 to 16 C. Winds slowly increasing from southwest to reach 40-60 km/hr late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Heavy showers will start moving south and winds will then veer to west and eventually northwest 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures will remain steady 10-12 C. Some stronger gusts (90 km/hr) are likely in exposed locations near Donegal Bay and Galway Bay towards morning.

THURSDAY ... Rain moving quickly south during the early morning hours, followed by partial clearing and moderate blustery northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, morning temperatures steady near 10 C with highs only 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY to about MONDAY will bring some mainly dry and occasionally sunny weather with rather frequent cloudy intervals, just a few very light showers and those mainly near north and west coasts, and temperatures near normal, highs 14 to 16 C with some slight frosts over the inland south, otherwise lows mainly 4 to 7 C in the south, 7 to 10 C in the north. TUESDAY will become more breezy with rain developing, highs near 16 C.

The FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a more unsettled pattern by mid-month with some strong winds at times, and more fluctuation in temperatures with some colder days in the mix.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and warm with a high of 20 C. Early snow fell on Monday night in parts of Alberta but it is quickly melting. Eastern North America is enjoying pleasant sunny and warm weather with highs 23 to 27 C.

There may be another tropical storm soon, one appears to be brewing over the western Caribbean.

M.T. Cranium · 05-10-2017 6:59am

Thursday, 5 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The last of the showers will come to an end this morning in the south, and skies will begin to brighten gradually as strong northwest winds ease by afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with a full moon, chilly, local ground frost inland valleys, lows 2 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing high cloud, highs 14 to 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy drizzle or light rain, lows about 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, morning fog patches may be slow to clear in some parts of the inland southeast, becoming mild by afternoon, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional rain, moderate southwest winds, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Breezy, mild and possibly turning a bit warmer still by end of the week, potential for highs of 19 or 20 C. Beyond that it will become very unsettled with strong westerly winds at times and rapid temperature swings.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and warm with highs near 20 C. Tropical Storm Nate is likely to be named later today as it approaches the Yucatan. This is expected to mature into a hurricane in the east-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with a landfall possible somewhere near Mobile, Alabama or New Orleans; at the moment, only a cat-1 hurricane is foreseen. Let's hope that is the case.

M.T. Cranium · 06-10-2017 6:40am

Friday, 6 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning followed by increasing high cloud, highs 14 to 16 C. Some light rain will begin in parts of the north by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Becoming overcast with light rain spreading south, 2-5 mm expected but some places could remain dry. Lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy drizzle or light rain, lows about 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, morning fog patches may be slow to clear in some parts of the inland southeast, becoming mild by afternoon, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C. Rain by late afternoon or evening in some parts of west.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional rain ending then partly cloudy by mid-day, moderate to strong westerly winds with gusts to 100 km/hr possible in the north, highs will range from 12 C north to 15 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times with strong southwest winds developing, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but generally quite mild, with highs over the weekend of 14th-15th and Monday 16th near 16 C, followed by somewhat colder and windy weather but with the occasional milder day in the mix.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high of 19 C. Tropical Storm Nate has formed over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras and will move rather quickly northwest across the Yucatan late today or tonight, into the east-central Gulf of Mexico where a cat-1 hurricane is expected to develop and move inland somewhere close to New Orleans. If it stays cat-1 and fast-moving, impacts will be generally moderate at worst.

M.T. Cranium · 07-10-2017 7:42am

Saturday, 7 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy drizzle or light rain may appear later near Atlantic coasts, with highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, some mist or fog patches, lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, morning fog patches may be slow to clear in some parts of the inland southeast, becoming mild by afternoon, and highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C. Rain by late afternoon or evening in some parts of west.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional rain ending then partly cloudy by mid-day, moderate to strong westerly winds with gusts to 100 km/hr possible in the north, highs will range from 12 C north to 15 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain may be persistent in parts of the north and west, but other regions may have longer dry intervals, with strong southwest winds 60-90 km/hr developing, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather mild with gusty south to southwest winds, highs 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY (14th) will turn cooler with rain at times, winds easing and veering to westerly. Highs 10 to 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week following will be cooler in general with rather frequent rain and highs mostly in the 10 to 13 C range.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few light showers, and highs near 14 C ... now Hurricane Nate is rapidly heading northwest towards a landfall tonight in or near New Orleans to Mobile, and a close watch is being kept as this one may intensify beyond the earlier expected cat-1 (which it already reached, speculation now that it could get as strong as cat-3 by this afternoon). Storm surge into Mobile Bay could be the most significant threat, also wind damage on populated barrier islands near Mobile. This storm will weaken inland but will bring significant rainfalls as far northeast as New England by Sunday/Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 08-10-2017 7:02am

Sunday, 8 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy drizzle mostly near Atlantic coasts, mild, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, drizzle and mild, fog patches, lows 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming quite windy and mild, rain at times, highs near 16 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Monday night will stay quite windy as winds veer more to west-southwest, lows falling back only to about 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, mild, highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy, occasional light rain, mild, lows near 9 or 10 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Little change in this dull, mild pattern is now foreseen, as only weak frontal passages will fail to completely break down this pattern, although by about next weekend it may become rather wet with stronger frontal systems developing.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with spotty showers and a few drops of hail at one point, sunny intervals later, and cool with highs near 14 C.

Hurricane Nate is moving inland overnight and will head northeast as a tropical storm until becoming just a regular low by Monday in PA, NY and New England. There are signs of the next named storm (which will be Ophelia) southwest of the Azores; this one looks likely to stay in the central Atlantic for a few days then die out there, with little chance of reaching land.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2017 7:08am

Monday, 9 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, outbreaks of light rain will bring perhaps 2-3 mm to western and northern counties, trace to 2 mm south and east. Moderate south to southwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild, a few showers, lows 9 to 12 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and mild, a few showers in north, and steady rain developing late in the day across Atlantic coastal counties. Some strong southwest winds developing in Connacht and west Ulster (60-100 km/hr) by late in the day. Highs 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds easing, a few showers or intervals of light rain followed by clearing, morning lows 10 to 13 C and afternoon highs 13 to 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals followed by increasing cloud and stronger southwest winds by late in the day, morning lows 4 to 8 C and afternoon highs 11 to 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with rain at times, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will have several pulses of rain, one of which might become quite heavy (timed at this point for early Sunday). Temperatures will stay rather mild in the 12 to 14 C range.

LONG-RANGE ., Continued rather unsettled, possible strong winds at times, and temperatures staying close to mid-October normal values around 12 to 15 C by day but often rather mild at night.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 16 C. Heavy rains from the remnants of Nate are spreading through the inland southeastern U.S. towards the northeast states and New England, 50 to 100 mm amounts will be widespread. Winds have diminished to about 50-70 km/hr with this extratropical system.

Boards.ie: Mark · 09-10-2017 1:05pm

Congrats on cultivating a thread that's been viewed more than 4 million times!

M.T. Cranium · 10-10-2017 6:50am

^ Thanks for the above, I enjoy doing these forecasts because it helps my research project and it keeps me in touch with Irish people which I enjoy for some perverse reason (a team of psychologists is studying the matter). There could probably be a better forecast product if we had more frequent updates and I originally started the thread to be a place for anyone to post those -- it hasn't happened much except when I am taking holiday time, but I would not object, as long as people don't copy material from copyright sources elsewhere (for legal reasons that would not be a good idea). But the title says no chat, I don't think that should deter knowledgeable posters from updating forecasts (in particular for day one). Anyway, on to the forecast for today ...

Tuesday, 10 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, becoming windy and mild, a few showers in north, and steady rain developing late in the day across Atlantic coastal counties. Some strong southwest winds developing in Connacht and west Ulster (60-100 km/hr) by late in the day. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain at times, with strong winds (southwest 60-90 km/hr), and mild with lows 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds easing through the morning, a few showers or intervals of light rain followed by partial clearing, morning lows 10 to 13 C and afternoon highs 13 to 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals followed by increasing cloud and stronger southwest winds by late in the day, morning lows 4 to 8 C and afternoon highs 11 to 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with rain at times, lows 8 to 10 C, highs 13 to 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will have several pulses of rain, one of which might become quite heavy (timed at this point for early Sunday). Temperatures will stay rather mild in the 12 to 14 C range and could reach 17 or 18 on Saturday in parts of the south and east.

LONG-RANGE -- Continued rather unsettled, possible strong winds at times, and temperatures staying close to mid-October normal values around 12 to 15 C by day but often rather mild at night. Hurricane Ophelia (as it is expected to become) will meander south of the Azores and could head towards Biscay -- models are at a very early stage with this potential and it may not get very close to Europe at all, but it may energize a frontal system near Ireland around Monday or Tuesday of next week.

My local weather on a holiday Monday (Thanksgiving, we do it a lot earlier here to catch the turkeys unaware) was sunny with a high near 16 C. Remnants of Nate were moving through upstate New York into northern New England but that's just a weak interruption in a long warm, dry spell of weather for much of the eastern U.S., with highs continuing to reach 27 C in many places (15 C further north in the rain from Nate).

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2017 7:06am

Wednesday, 11 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain and strong winds (southwest 60-90 km/hr) will ease during the morning with partial clearing spreading east through the day, By afternoon winds should be a more tolerable 40-60 km/hr and highs will reach 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some clear intervals, colder than recent nights although likely frost-free, lows 4 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, and stronger south to southwest winds returning by afternoon (60-100 km/hr), with rain becoming heavy at times. Highs 15 or 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild, winds continuing rather strong from the southwest (50-70 km/hr), lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, but overcast in parts of west and north where rain may be more likely, quite warm with lows near 12 C and highs reaching 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued partly cloudy and very mild, lows 12 to 14 C, highs 17 to 19 C.

Around Monday or Tuesday, a strong windstorm may develop -- models are currently in fairly good agreement that remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move across or near Ireland. However, this is not yet a certainty and a different track may be indicated before we reach the more reliable 72 hour outlook on Friday. Any details would be very speculative at this point but be aware that all forecasters are closely watching these developments. Temperatures would likely stay quite warm with a slight drop by Tuesday. Wherever this extratropical storm goes, wind gusts could reach 140 km/hr but as I say, this is not a certainty for Ireland yet, it could go into some other part of western Europe ... I don't think there will be much room for the storm to miss to the west, if it misses it would be southeast of Ireland. All parts of Ireland are at some risk with the range of possible tracks this might take. Also the timing should be taken as plus or minus 24 hours (with Monday afternoon or evening the most likely time at present).

Beyond this event, a somewhat cooler pattern is likely although temperatures will continue to be a little above seasonal normals for mid-October.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and chilly with a few brief showers, and highs near 12 C. We are near the peak of our autumn colour display now and leaves are starting to fall although we will need strong winds or heavy rain to bring most of them down.

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2017 7:07am

Thursday, 12 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, then increasing cloud, and stronger south to southwest winds returning by afternoon (60-100 km/hr), with rain becoming heavy at times. Highs 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT and FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild, winds continuing rather strong from the southwest (50-70 km/hr), lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, but overcast in parts of west and north where rain may be more likely, quite warm with lows near 12 C and highs reaching 17 to 21 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued partly cloudy and very mild with rain hanging around western and northern coastal counties, lows 12 to 14 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

MONDAY ... Windy (possibly severe gusts) with an interval of heavy rain, possibly lasting much of the day in north and east, but some afternoon clearing for south and west. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 16 to 19 C. Potential for wind gusts of 80 to 120 km/hr and even higher if an intense low follows a path close to the west coast.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, followed by clearing, a little cooler in strong westerly winds easing later in the day, highs 14 to 17 C.

Holding with the same general thoughts for this potential windstorm and discussion of latest guidance can be found in a dedicated thread elsewhere on the forum, basically all models are shifting around a general theme slightly, but consensus (as shown by the NHC forecasts) is for a strong low to hit some part of Ireland, or possibly a near miss to the west, but not far enough out to sea to avoid at least moderately strong winds ... clarity on a solution is not likely to be available until at least the early part of the weekend.)

Around Monday or Tuesday, a strong windstorm may develop -- models are currently in fairly good agreement that remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move across or near Ireland. However, this is not yet a certainty and a different track may be indicated before we reach the more reliable 72 hour outlook on Friday. Any details would be very speculative at this point but be aware that all forecasters are closely watching these developments. Temperatures would likely stay quite warm with a slight drop by Tuesday. Wherever this extratropical storm goes, wind gusts could reach 140 km/hr but as I say, this is not a certainty for Ireland yet, it could go into some other part of western Europe ... I don't think there will be much room for the storm to miss to the west, if it misses it would be southeast of Ireland. All parts of Ireland are at some risk with the range of possible tracks this might take. Also the timing should be taken as plus or minus 24 hours (with Monday afternoon or evening the most likely time at present).

Beyond this event, a somewhat cooler pattern is likely although temperatures will continue to be a little above seasonal normals for mid-October.

My local weather on Wednesday was quite chilly with intervals of rain that turned sleety with a mix of snow and hail making a mess of the roads between my location and the international border (but this missed me by about ten kilometres.) The high was barely into the 11-13 C range.

M.T. Cranium · 13-10-2017 7:18am

Friday, 13 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE A:ERT -- A severe and possibly damaging windstorm is increasingly likely across western counties trending to strong to locally severe in eastern counties on Monday as the extratropical low "Ophelia" tracks near the Atlantic coastal counties. There is potential for wind gusts of 120 to 180 km/hr depicted on models this morning affecting large parts of Munster and Connacht, and west Ulster. For Leinster and central to east Ulster, potential gusts would be 100 to 130 km/hr. Monitor all forecasts through the weekend as the storm approaches.

FORECASTS ...

TODAY will be very mild with sporadic showers and spells of brighter partly cloudy weather, moderately strong south winds 50-80 km/hr at times, and highs near 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT will be humid and very mild with outbreaks of light rain near west and northwest coasts, perhaps some fog near south coast, as winds ease to southerly 30 or 40 km/hr, lows 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will start out rather misty with occasional light rain in west and north, about 5 mm likely there, but it will gradually clear to hazy sunshine and warm temperatures in central, southern and eastern counties except where sea fog drifts inland in Munster and south Leinster, highs 18 to 22 C. Temperatures near the west and north coasts are likely to stay closer to 16 C. Saturday night will be misty and very mild with lows of 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of light rain a bit further south for part of the day as a weak frontal zone sets up from east Ulster to south Clare. North of this front it may be somewhat cooler than Saturday at 14 to 17 C, but south of the front it will stay very warm with highs 18 to 21 C.

MONDAY will likely bring severe stormy conditions as "Ophelia" tracks somewhere near Ireland, details to be confirmed but at this point the most likely outcome appears to be intervals of heavy rain with rapidly increasing south-southeast gales to storm force winds, perhaps 10 to 20 mm rain for many, severe damaging gusts from south to southwest by mid-day, potentially 120 to 180 km/hr west, 100 to 130 km/hr east, and rapid clearing for some parts of the south. Highest temperatures will be around 19 C but around north Mayo and Donegal it could stay closer to 15 C. Stormy conditions would slowly ease by late afternoon or evening in the south and late overnight in the north.

TUESDAY will bring some moderate southwest winds and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued mild weather, highs 16 to 19 C, and perhaps another interval of strong winds (peak gusts near 110 km/hr) around Thursday night or Friday of next week. The week following is expected to turn somewhat colder with highs 10 to 13 C, and rather frequent rain.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with intervals of rain (about 25 mm), and quite chilly with highs not much better than 10 C.

Cat-2 Hurricane Ophelia is moving slowly east-northeast towards the southeast Azores which it will affect on Saturday with strong northeast winds. The storm is then expected to accelerate towards Europe and will be in the western Biscay marine region by late Sunday. About that time it will have completed transition from a cat-1 hurricane to a hurricane strength "extratropical" low.

Details and discussion ongoing in the Ophelia storm thread elsewhere on the forum.

M.T. Cranium · 14-10-2017 6:40am

Saturday, 14 October, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for severe windstorm conditions on Monday affecting large parts of the country, especially Munster, the midlands, south coast and coastal Connacht. Details may change closer to the time but it seems likely that gusts of 140 to 170 km/hr could develop in exposed locations with severe damage potential. Gusts of 110 to 140 km/hr will occur in most other locations and cause scattered damage. There is also a risk of storm surge coastal inundations of 2 metres or higher in some parts of the south coast and 1.5 metres on other coasts.

TODAY will start out rather misty with occasional light rain in west and north, about 5 mm likely there, but it will gradually clear to hazy sunshine and warm temperatures in central, southern and eastern counties except where sea fog drifts inland in Munster and south Leinster, highs 18 to 22 C. Temperatures near the west and north coasts are likely to stay closer to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy and very mild with lows of 13 to 16 C. Occasional rain will develop in north and west.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of light to moderate rain a bit further south for part of the day as a weak frontal zone sets up from east Ulster to south Clare. North of this front highs will be 14 to 17 C, but south of the front it will stay a llittle warmer with highs 16 to 19 C. Sunday night will be relatively calm at first with gradually increasing southeast winds reaching gale force on the south coast by daybreak, and outbreaks of heavy rain in west Munster moving towards Galway.

MONDAY will likely bring severe stormy conditions as "Ophelia" tracks somewhere near Ireland, details to be confirmed but at this point the most likely outcome appears to be intervals of heavy rain or thunderstorms with rapidly increasing south-southeast gales to storm force winds, perhaps 10 to 20 mm rain for many, severe damaging gusts from south to southwest by mid-day, potentially 120 to 170 km/hr west, 100 to 130 km/hr east, and rapid clearing for some parts of the south. Highest temperatures will be around 19 C but around north Mayo and Donegal it could stay closer to 15 C. Temperatures will drop to about 15 C in the south later in the afternoon and winds will ease either then or by evening while remaining very strong in the north. Monday night will see partial clearing and a general easing of the strrong winds with rain only in Ulster by early morning.

TUESDAY will bring some moderate southwest winds and highs near 16 C with a few sunny spells followed by rain late in the day.

WEDNESDAY will become very windy again (southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr) with squally showers and temperatures steady 13 to 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Stormy intervals will continue with another strong frontal system timed for Friday 20th. The temperature trend will then turn colder by several degrees.

My local weather on Friday was clearing by mid-afternoon but chilly with highs of about 9 C.

Hurricane Ophelia is south of the Azores and holding at cat-2 intensity. More details about the storm forecast can be found in the "Ophelia" thread elsewhere on the forum.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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