Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

2456789

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Interesting that ECM and GFS are not miles apart showing some very unsettled weather at the end of next week around Fri /Sat. Both showing deep areas of LP, different track and timing but both showing very cold uppers being drawn in over us. The Jet fired up as well and both showing it to the South of us.

    The weather is going to be hard to predict as large areas of Lp take up residence and influence our weather from midweek, with the jet powering up and with sharp temperature gradients wave depressions could form which can spring up very quickly in such a set up ,then all depends on track and timing.

    dFnXAtQ.png

    I69saYi.png

    PGKRej5.png

    3Ir9gmY.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Still trending unsettled next weekend with the models currently showing windy if not stormy weather late Fri into Sat and very wet. Early days and could look different in a couple of days but worth keeping an eye on.

    All the models showing colder uppers , ECM leading the way.

    Jet looks fired up and to the S of us letting in the colder airmas.

    SXqY5Ij.png

    AxlUitR.png

    bhHGS4d.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    Any update have few important days in May


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Reminds me of the early stages of how the models tracked what was to become Storm Hannah. Closer to the S of Ireland on the latest 12Z run from the ECM. Still very much in the unreliable time frame, worth keeping an eye on though.

    Not showing very strong winds at this stage , Jet to the S of it which could ramp up the wind speeds .

    Currently looks like heavy and possibly thundery rain around Weds.

    ntiQr8S.gif

    anim_bmv3.gif

    iC6lIwv.png

    5ZR0h6s.png

    jtcdNbY.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Have to look out to the end of the run to see any glimpse of hope of temps improving. That would be a nice 20C + maybe in Tralee :)


    anim_wcv7.gif

    aGvySYG.png

    Would be great if it was the start of a plume.


    SSoL677.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    So there has been a trend for the coming week's unsettled spell to be relatively short-lived with high pressure quickly reasserting itself somewhere close to Ireland but as it's more than 5 days out, there is obviously going to be some uncertainty and disagreement on the placement of the high which is vital to seeing where gets the chance of sunshine and what the temperatures will be like.

    Latest ECM shows an area of high pressure over us and pushing to the northeast drawing in an easterly flow though starting off as a cool northerly flow meaning it'd be cold at first but as the high would stick around for a few days, it would get relatively warmer with the land warming up by the strong May sunshine.

    This pattern is somewhat similar to the Easter period but high pressure is a bit further north as low pressure is rather deep in the North Atlantic out to the west of Ireland. Whether this would be a cut off low where the low undercuts to Iberia like those that did during Easter or not, would be important for the high to develop over us and be a blocked pattern or migrate northwards and form another northern blocking anticyclone like this coming week.

    ECM1-192.GIF?05-12

    ECM clusters have not updated since Friday evening so these are the ECM 12z clusters from Friday. Full agreement at t216 that some sort of ridge will build into the country from the south but centred well to our south and deep low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. This would be dry but cloudy I would have thought with southwesterly to westerly winds being the dominance.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050312_216.png

    Things started differing a few days after on these clusters with 4 different placements of the high pressure.

    Scenario #1 shows one similar to t216 but the high is further north so more of a chance of sunny spells particularly in the sunny southeast as the moisture layered southwesterlies are pushed northwards with the jet stream.

    Scenario #2 shows high pressure blocking to our north with a little ridge coming through the country into Iberia. This would be a bit more unsettled as the high is too far north to really take over the pattern and the low pressure is too close to the west for comfort. Looks sort of similar to mid-April, the period just before Easter.

    Scenario #3 shows a large area of high pressure centred right over top of us. This is the best case scenario if you want dry and fine weather. It would be initially cool at first due to the northerly flow from a few days before but it would become gradually warmer and warmer as the strong May sun shines.

    Scenario #4 shows high pressure just to the east of the UK with low pressure in the Atlantic. This would result in long fetched southerly to southwesterly winds I would have thought which would be cloudy and humid - warmest conditions in the east of the country.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050312_276.png

    Latest GFS is very similar to the ECM with a northerly flow at first veering to easterly but high pressure building through the country (although later in FI builds the high as a northern blocking feature essentially repeating the coming week's pattern).

    gfs-0-210.png?0

    Overall, looks like the unsettled spell will be short-lived with an area of high pressure building in by the end of the second week of May but staying cool for a time with temperatures gradually warming up a little.

    Long way out so pinch of salt as ever with FI.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking through the ECM 12Z tonight would give doubt atm to any signs of a significant warm up for the next 10 days . In a polar sourced airmass all week coming and there is a tussle going on between N'ly sourced air and ridging from the S around next week end . Just one run and might firm up with a more warm theme in the next couple of runs but no great sign atm. The Jet in general keeping S of us.

    anim_epg2.gif

    frHkqXu.png

    LcBCDCg.png

    XZUw4RD.png

    dHLpHv5.png

    PiXbA6M.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 12z operational run was a big outlier in FI in its ensembles. Clusters updated for the 0z run from this morning and they support ridging through the country but with the initial northerly flow, the air mass will be cool under the high. Sunny spells would moderate the cool air mass somewhat I would imagine.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    An improvement in temperatures on the ECM 0Z for a couple of days next week, possibly in the high teens or low 20's but still looking fragile and short lived atm.



    anim_pfy9.gif

    lFb5LC5.png

    GgG9kax.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z pumping up a very warm run this evening with the UK & Ireland just missing out on the northerly flow around the 12th which goes into Scandinavia as high pressure builds over us and just to our east allowing the winds to turn into the south. Just goes to show ya how much can change with small differences in positioning of pressure systems.

    Looks almost record breaking-like over Iberia. Would be a big change from early May.

    WJWVQl7.png

    sfcwqDi.png

    Reasonable support within the GEFS at the same time (which is kinda surprising as this is quite a new scenario) for some sort of southerly to southeasterly wind (although not full on as the operational run suggests) to become established with the centre of high pressure building just to the east of the UK.

    GFS OP is one of the warmest members as you'd imagine with such a warm run so not quite as warm with the GEFS mean but the 10c isotherm (which it does show) over Ireland is very good for May.

    rppBeym.png

    Will see if the ECM latches on to this scenario and show a similar position change in the northerly wind with Ireland just missing it. ECM clusters from this morning's 0z all very indicative of high pressure over top of us at the same time frame as the GFS above. Not quite a southerly flow though as it's not to the east of the UK.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050600_192.png


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭wing52


    Too early for a spanish plume from that, sryan?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    wing52 wrote: »
    Too early for a spanish plume from that, sryan?

    GFS OP did show some charts that I would characterise of a spanish plume yes which would be mad given it's May. One point in its run, it tries to get close to the pattern of late May last year and May 2017 too when there was a southerly flow (and 27c) followed by thundery rain for some. Long way out though and a rather warm outlier.

    ECM 12z is now cutting off that northerly flow for Ireland with warmer air filtering up from the south this time next week on its run. High pressure establishing to the east and ridging over us. Not as warm as the GFS.

    ECM1-168.GIF?06-0

    ICON was similar to the GFS. I won't even describe the GEM of what it showed for the UK :p .


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS OP did show some charts that I would characterise of a spanish plume yes which would be mad given it's May. One point in its run, it tries to get close to the pattern of late May last year and May 2017 too when there was a southerly flow (and 27c) followed by thundery rain for some. Long way out though and a rather warm outlier.

    ECM 12z is now cutting off that northerly flow for Ireland with warmer air filtering up from the south this time next week on its run. High pressure establishing to the east and ridging over us. Not as warm as the GFS.

    ECM1-168.GIF?06-0

    ICON was similar to the GFS. I won't even describe the GEM of what it showed for the UK :p .

    May last year? Thundery rain ?

    It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    May last year? Thundery rain ?

    It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.

    I said May 2017 for the thundery rain.

    The pattern on some charts of the GFS in FI were reminiscent or somewhat similar to late May last year when that lightning show occurred. Low pressure over the Bay of Biscay with southeasterly winds feeding in continental air and temperatures getting above 20c widely. Talking two weeks away though!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    pad199207 wrote: »
    May last year? Thundery rain ?

    It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.

    What a night, we were right at the heart of it in East Cork, went on from 11pm - 4am approx non stop lightning and some absolutely torrential rain :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Remember that night amazingly, was up till 3am watching it in cork city. Didn’t even know it was coming!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 0z yet again a warm run with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly airflow rather than southerly so cooler than its 12z yesterday (whilst still on the warmest side of the GEFS) but nevertheless, still talking low 20s for a few fair places by this time next week if it were to verify.

    The pattern it establishes seems like one that could keep getting established again and again with brief westerly incursions, as ridging from the Azores attempts to build.

    gfs-0-156.png?0

    ECM is similar to the GFS pretty much with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly wind which turns into an easterly later on as pressure rises to our north.

    ECM1-168.GIF?07-12

    ECM clusters from its 12z yesterday pretty much the same as their 0z runs with high pressure certain for next week, just small differences in exact positioning.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050612_168.png

    Signals looking very strong now for a warm up early next week with high pressure becoming established but still time for changes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    pad199207 wrote: »
    May last year? Thundery rain ?

    It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.

    The 19th of July 2016 was the last large scale event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Xenji wrote: »
    The 19th of July 2016 was the last large scale event.

    Before 27th of May 2018? Probably yeah.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM certainly looking a whole lot better for warmth next week. Currently looking like improving from Sunday and getting that bit warmer each day until getting up to the low 20's by about Tues next and on the present charts looks to stay up to the low 20's in places until the end of the run ( Fri ). LP pressing from the Atlantic so will have to see how the high pressure holds out. Currently looks like very little precipitation next week.

    pzIyxTo.gif

    FvrfaVN.png

    EBOTQp7.png

    pzNfL83.png

    W7FtG64.png


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM certainly looking a whole lot better for warmth next week. Currently looking like improving from Sunday and getting that bit warmer each day until getting up to the low 20's by about Tues next and on the present charts looks to stay up to the low 20's in places until the end of the run ( Fri ). LP pressing from the Atlantic so will have to see how the high pressure holds out. Currently looks like very little precipitation next week.

    From the northern hemispheric view, it looks like it wants this high to become an omega block with low pressures undercutting to our south (though it attempts to power up a little low by the end of the week just to our southwest as you mention) and pushing to the north (jet stream becoming more meridional). If this verifies, I would think we could be in for a fairly pronounced period of dry weather and increasingly warm.

    As always, there will be a zonal bias with some models if the Omega high thing comes to reality (particularly the GFS). We saw this very evidently last Summer and high pressure just kept reasserting itself over or near us until late July.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes sryanbruen the all important jet taking a more meridional flow and keeping North of us as heights rise from the S and HP becomes established. So far over the last few runs the ECM has been strengthening its outlook regards HP blocking and holding more firm into each run. Interesting to see how well it holds on to this or in fact as you say will we see an Omega block proper becoming established. Time to take out the shorts and sandals eh !


    SyCbN9i.png

    DhXy598.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    pad199207 wrote: »
    May last year? Thundery rain ?

    It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.

    Yes...

    sferic_20180527.gif


    Until June 8th:

    sferic_20180608.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yeah decent on that day too actually. Still not as good as the May event though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'm still waiting on a half respectable thunderstorm since 1985.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,724 ✭✭✭tnegun


    Neither of the 2018 ones stand out for me in North Kildare looks like we were on the fringes of both?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    To get back on topic..

    Models still showing the same thing for next week with Ireland having dominance from high pressure for at least a few days. Things start differing between models by this time next week however.

    The GFS wants to retrogress the high to the north and northwest with low pressure invading from the Atlantic forming deep lows running on a southerly tracking jet stream. Looks pretty awful and quite a different run from the previous few following the lovely weather of next week.

    The ECM attempts to retrogress the high at the very end of its run but it keeps pressure generally high over us.

    EC clusters from this morning's 0z run want to retrogress the high a bit to our northwest by the end of next week and into the weekend or following week but not to the extent that the GFS 12z shows so low pressure systems do not affect Ireland here. It stays dry but maybe a tilt to the wind in it being more of a northeasterly direction so be cooler particularly in eastern regions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 0z continues to be different with proper northern blocking setting up over Iceland this time next week forcing the winds to veer northeasterly. Takes a little bit before it turns unsettled. Much cooler run for early next week too.

    ECM 0z is actually quite similar but it delays the retrogression so not as quick as the GFS and maybe a bit more of a northerly wind than northeasterly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS 0z continues to be different with proper northern blocking setting up over Iceland this time next week forcing the winds to veer northeasterly. Takes a little bit before it turns unsettled. Much cooler run for early next week too.

    ECM 0z is actually quite similar but it delays the retrogression so not as quick as the GFS and maybe a bit more of a northerly wind than northeasterly.

    It is starting to look like 2012 again. I thought we would get a pattern of the azores high ridging in, with brief Atlantic interruptions, but that seems to be the wrong call. Still it's early days to write off the whole summer at this point!


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I'm still waiting on a half respectable thunderstorm since 1985.

    Did you not get a decent thunderstorm during May 2001? The storms came all the way up from Biscay. It would be great to see something similar this summer!


Advertisement