Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 6:03pm

12Z GEM has also dropped it too now.

ninebeanrows · 22-10-2013 11:18pm

The 18z has the storm back and pounding parts of England.

Looking at the ECMWF stamps at 132hrs a number of members have a system but the major trend at the minute is to have the storm further south than in recent days with parts of southwestern France even at risk in some sols.

Troublesome feature for forecasters.

An interesting feature:

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 11:42pm

Yeah, it's back again on the 18Z GFS. Gales for southwest and southern England, not so bad here on this run. Impossible to know what will really happen yet.

Weathering · 23-10-2013 12:29am

These storms usually track further North so hopefully we get in on the action. At last something to keep a eye on

Danno · 23-10-2013 3:04am

Did someone mention a hurricane was on the way?

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 8:17am

0Z GFS.

Which would being storm force winds to the east coast and inland gales.

0Z GEM similar, a little more intense and further south than the GFS, southern England gets the brunt and we miss most of the strong winds on this track.

0Z ECM has it even further south, in the English channel, and weaker than GFS/GEM.

Danno · 23-10-2013 10:33am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

North Atlantic generally 2-3 C above normal across 45-55N, bookmark this for future reference:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.21.2013.gif

(bookmark the first part of that address anyway, you'll get a menu with updates twice a week on all regions and global.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html is the menu.

Rikand · 23-10-2013 10:53am

Weathering wrote: »

These storms usually track further North so hopefully we get in on the action. At last something to keep a eye on

South coast is due a storm

we'll let you get the next one

Tazio · 23-10-2013 11:14am

GFS again this morning.... [06Z]

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 11:29am

06Z GFS is pretty similar to the 0Z. Isobars are a bit slacker on this run even though the MSLP is a bit lower, so not as windy for us if this happened. The exact track and the timing of the deepening won't be nailed down for a while yet.

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 11:40am

yeah but you still talking gusts 120 kmh plus with that chart!

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 11:52am

pad199207 wrote: »

yeah but you still talking gusts 120 kmh plus with that chart!

Not for us on that run though, GFS showing max gusts around 75 km/h on coasts, closer to 120 on the east coast of England though.

The potential is there though, interesting one to watch the models handle.

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 12:24pm

Apocalyptic lol:pac:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438151/Apocalyptic-weather-to-batter-UK-expect-relentless-rainstorms-and-terrifying-winds

Rikand · 23-10-2013 12:48pm

I know its a bit far away to say, but I am due to fly out from Dublin on Tuesday night to Liverpool. Will there still be strong winds around for that (i.e. strong enough that it might affect the flight taking off/landing ? )

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 12:51pm

Rikand wrote: »

I know its a bit far away to say, but I am due to fly out from Dublin on Tuesday night to Liverpool. Will there still be strong winds around for that (i.e. strong enough that it might affect the flight taking off/landing ? )

No, you'll be fine.

Gratzi22 · 23-10-2013 1:02pm

HI Guys, I booked a day return sailing from Dublin to Holyhead for the family on Monday 28th just as a day out/treat (first time on boat, etc) Should I cancel it now or wait and see if the storm shifts further south? Don't want to put my young lad off sailing on his first attempt. Cheers.

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 1:04pm

The potential storm looks to far south for the worst of the winds to affect us here in the west but I think when these storms are ugraded in strength that usually makes them track more northward so it still could happen still plenty of time for track/intensity to change.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 1:16pm

Gratzi22 wrote: »

HI Guys, I booked a day return sailing from Dublin to Holyhead for the family on Monday 28th just as a day out/treat (first time on boat, etc) Should I cancel it now or wait and see if the storm shifts further south? Don't want to put my young lad off sailing on his first attempt. Cheers.

It could easily turn out to be weaker, further south or pass through earlier. Or any combination of the above. Nothing nailed yet, should have a better idea by Friday I'd say.

Tazio · 23-10-2013 3:47pm

Met.ie are posting the following on their website at this time:

[23 October 2013 11:01]
This weekend:
There is a possibility of widespread wet and windy conditions Saturday morning clearing during the second half of the day and then followed by windy, showery days for Sunday and Monday with some heavy showers likely but some sunny spells also. Winds may increase to gale force at times.
Temperatures around normal with maxima typically 12 or 13 degrees.

So nothing to worry about at the moment..

The BBC are posting the following:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Monday 28 October—Sunday 3 November

Are we stuck with low pressure over the UK?

With low pressure still expected to be flirting with the shores of the British Isles, all signs point to our weather remaining unsettled into early November. One subtle change in the positioning of the low pressure centre, with it migrating to the north of the UK, which may mean that southern and eastern parts are spared the worst of the weather. Rain and showers should become increasingly confined to northern and western parts. Temperatures by this stage will start to fall closer to the seasonal norm.

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 4:09pm

Id say this will be pushed further South as we get closer to the event!

I dont think it will have much of an impact here windwise

kit3 · 23-10-2013 4:46pm

When do we hit a reliable time frame for Monday ?

rickdangerouss · 23-10-2013 4:59pm

kit3 wrote: »

When do we hit a reliable time frame for Monday ?

For this event, I read around Friday on-wards.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 5:16pm

12Z GFS puts the low on more southerly track, strongest winds hundreds of miles further south than on the last run just 6 hours ago, instead it's northwest France gets the brunt.

No strong winds for here at all from that (the same model was showing storm force off the east coast this morning, thats how quickly its changing), in fact the strongest winds would be from a different low which the GFS is tracking closer to Ireland than before on this run, on Sunday:

It's not likely we've seen the end of the changes yet.

ninebeanrows · 23-10-2013 6:40pm

No model has got a handle on this yet, GFS transferring more energy on this run to the first low.

UKM has the storm going through central England.

ECMWF will be interesting especially the stamps again.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 7:03pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

No model has got a handle on this yet, GFS transferring more energy on this run to the first low.

UKM has the storm going through central England.

ECMWF will be interesting especially the stamps again.

Ian Fergusson made an interesting point on NW that puts the models in perspective.

Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate.

pauldry · 23-10-2013 10:24pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Ian Fergusson made an interesting point on NW that puts the models in perspective.

Would Dublin marathon be affected

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 10:41pm

The daily express are at it again "Worst storm for 27 years a repeat of the 1987 storm".
Where are they gettin this from when a real Huge storm is on the way no one will listen as they are always over blowing the situation:rolleyes:

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 10:46pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

The daily express are at it again "Worst storm for 27 years a repeat of the 1987 storm".
Where are they gettin this from when a real Huge storm is on the way no one will listen as they are always over blowing the situation:rolleyes:

God give them a bit of slack they said 26 years not 27 years god...

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 10:47pm

pad199207 wrote: »

God give them a bit of slack they said 26 years not 27 years god...

Ya i just saw that haha

ninebeanrows · 23-10-2013 11:03pm

Well they still have a chance.

GFS bombs it 20mb in 12hrs, rapidly intensifying just prior to hitting UK

Lots of interest in this one yet.

Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

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