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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

13567…220

Comments

  • #62
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,130 ✭✭✭screamer


    I’ll believe it if I see it. I don’t have much faith in the models at all. Usually I love snow but this year, I’d love to see the end of winter weather and I’d take sunshine over snow. We shall see I guess.


  • #63
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,871 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Its pretty easy predict the weather in Sligo... since last June bar a week or two it has rained every day even the cold ones so Id say rain next weekend again even if its -3c


  • #64
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    The storm coming out of America has thrown a spanner in the works.

    We just have to wait and see how this evolves.

    It has given the Jet a little Kick.

    Id like to see it kick the trigger low in France.....


    xZuTjsJ.png


  • #65
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    The divergence happens in 5 days so I guess we may not see agreement until Wednesday evening, been watching models for 15 years and in all that time with this kind of scenario they haven't improved predictive at this range


  • #66
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Is there anything to be said for another Mass?


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  • #67
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

    We’ve ran out of priests now at this stage


  • #68
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.


  • #69
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

    Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.


  • #70
    barney 20v
    Registered Users Posts: 979 ✭✭✭barney 20v


    Gonzo wrote: »
    What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

    What will happen will happen. no point hoping either way!


  • #71
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.

    Until tomorrow’s ones.


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  • #72
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.

    I'm preparing for the ECM to fall back in line with the 12z. This happened 3 weeks ago. The GFS has been leading the trend for the entire winter up to this point and with 3 bad GFS run's in a row this is not looking good at all. The ECM is a fantastic model but it hasn't really followed trends well at all this winter.


  • #73
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I'm preparing for the ECM to fall back in line with the 12z. This happened 3 weeks ago. The GFS has been leading the trend for the entire winter up to this point and with 3 bad GFS run's in a row this is not looking good at all. The ECM is a fantastic model but it hasn't really followed trends well at all this winter.

    I'm not expecting that
    The GFS old model historically has difficulty with reverse zonal


  • #74
    SouthWesterly
    Registered Users Posts: 6,439 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Gonzo wrote: »
    What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

    I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March


  • #75
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    SouthWesterly wrote: »
    I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March

    If we don't get this cold spell then this would be my next preferred choice. Anything to shut the Atlantic off. Flooding is becoming a real issue if this Atlantic onslaught continues into the Spring.


  • #76
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    I wouldn't get too hung up with current charts projected by some models. As mentioned previously by another poster that the LP exiting north east of the US will be key, if it moves further to the west it will budge the LP siting around Ireland & UK into Northern France. Confidence of that happening is high which I will rate 80%. We should get a clearer picture of the outlook tomorrow evening.


  • #77
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    If we see Mogrep and ECM flip in the next couple of runs it will be a major coup by the GFS. It has had an annoying tendency to go its own way this winter and subsequently be proved right. I think we will have our answer by tomorrow morning at the latest, possibly tonight. As is so often the case, it could be a meeting in the middle, as oppose to one flipping to the other. A meeting in the middle will probably mean just more of the same for us.


  • #78
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

    SdYOEay.png


  • #79
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    nacho libre wrote: »
    If we see Mogrep and ECM flip in the next couple of runs it will be a major coup by the GFS. It has had an annoying tendency to go its own way this winter and subsequently be proved right. I think we will have our answer by tomorrow morning at the latest, possibly tonight. As is so often the case, it could be a meeting in the middle, as oppose to one flipping to the other. A meeting in the middle will probably mean just more of the same for us.

    Would this be reflected in its verifications stats this winter ?

    Its so close to a decent cold spell but also so close to more of the same :o


  • #80
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    SouthWesterly wrote: »
    I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March

    Odds of that happening in February are very low. If this potential cold spell doesn`t show up in the next few days then in all probability we will have more mild wet murky weather for the rest of the month.


  • #81
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,871 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Itl be cold.....but in Eastern Europe

    We will just get meh

    Our whole climate is meh:(


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  • #82
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It would appear any cold spell is likely to be short lived looking across most of the output. The ECM this evening is likely to be a lot more sobering than its last run.


  • #83
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭pad199207


    nacho libre wrote: »
    It would appear any cold spell is likely to be short lived looking across most of the output. The ECM this evening is likely to be a lot more sobering than its last run.

    Yes. If the ECM tonight is similar to yesterday’s I will be flabbergasted


  • #84
    mcburns07
    Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Another one bites the dust, will we ever learn? :pac:


  • #85
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    GEFS on the milder side of the mean on 12z and GEM is nice, don't go throwing this one out yet, unless of course it is just reverse psychology ;)


  • #86
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    Another one bites the dust, will we ever learn? :pac:

    Whatever the outcome, its hardly going to be decided today.we should know our fate tomorrow or Thursday......


  • #87
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Come on ECM back the GEM so we can put the GFS in the naughty corner


  • #88
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Come on ECM back the GEM so we can put the GFS in the naughty corner
    So far ECM is backing the GEM horse on this evening's released run. Low pressure sinking slowly south past the south coast of England by Saturday evening.


  • #89
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Just when I thought I was out, it sucks me back in again...


  • #90
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Aunty Snow see's a BIG northeasterly FETCH in this chart next Monday
    Lots and lots of snow,200kmh fetch for Arklow
    Might need a lightning conducter? :D
    (Won't post tuesday but it's even better)
    No Question about the direction of travel here

    71704580-8794-420D-A75A-F4A65CC34307.jpeg.669f0a26b10ee4df4d6522e5f70c5c89.jpeg


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  • #91
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Well, we can't move to "mittens" yet but I have seen enough to raise the alert level to "wooly hat" from Friday

    Stay safe


This discussion has been closed.
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