July 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2015 6:16pm #1

Predict the following stats and then ponder the bonus question ....

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.2

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS -- We will turn to a new element this month, namely lightning, which is logged by met.ie in the "Past Weather" section under lightning.

Predict the date with the most lightning strikes on land in the Republic of Ireland. Then with reference to the traditional 26 counties name the county where you expect the most strikes. I will factor in the different sizes of the counties when awarding points.

Basically, for the date, it will be 5 points if you hit the date of the max, 4 points if you hit the second place date, etc, and these will also be reduced by one point for each day you miss, best possible score to count. And for the county, it will be 5 points if you are correct (note that this stat might not fall on the same date as the national max, depends on how things play out), and then 4 for second highest, 3 for third etc. And as mentioned, you are protected by a scaling factor that I will employ for the smaller counties.

Watch the thread for updates on counts of daily lightning strikes and which counties have significant numbers.

Enter by 0300h Thursday 2nd of July, or face the usual 5-pt half-day penalties. If there is a lot of lightning on 1st or 2nd, I will discount any guesses entered after the lightning occurs, for the 2nd, but you can play in real time using the 1st. I've noticed in past years that the last third of July seems to be a particularly active time for lightning so just because there's an outbreak next week won't necessarily invalidate guesses for later in the month.

Here's my very early estimates that I may change later, to give you some guidance on the template if not the details ...

16.0 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 105 _ 28th Wicklow

When it comes to the scaling, I will go with values derived from actual land area. And the question is sure to arise, lightning strikes off the coast will not be counted, the hatch mark has to be on land in the Republic at its central point to count.

Have fun and don't rush to enter, just wanted to let folks know in case you have holiday plans or whatever.

sunflower3 · 27-06-2015 11:00am

15.8 _ 26.3 _ 5.1_ 105 _ 95 _ 2nd Cork

200motels · 28-06-2015 12:28am

15.9 _ 28.9 _ 4.9 _ 89 _ 94 _ 19th Wexford

omicron · 28-06-2015 6:30pm

16.0 _ 27.0 _ 6.5_ 110 _ 100 _ 25th Wexford

Schadenfreudia · 28-06-2015 9:24pm

15.5 _ 27.8 _ 7.0 _ 95 _ 110 _ 21st, Westmeath

pauldry · 28-06-2015 11:43pm

15.4_ 27.1 _ 6.2_ 121_ 103_ 31st Offaly

Bsal · 30-06-2015 1:35am

15.6 _ 26.9 _ 6.0 _ 98 _ 112 _ 22nd Wicklow

dasa29 · 30-06-2015 1:59pm

15.0 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 90 _ 125 _ 15th Wicklow

Rikand · 30-06-2015 4:43pm

15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 95 _ 120 _ 21st Kildare

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2015 5:45pm

This link will assist me (and perhaps you) in adjusting the numbers of lightning strikes in various counties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_counties_by_area

As the average county (close to the area of Roscommon or Limerick) has 2500 square kms, I will adjust each count by the required fraction, up or down, to that standard. It means that Cork's total will be divided by 3, Galway by about 2.5 etc. and some of the smaller counties will see a multiplier of as much as 3 times in the case of Louth. I'll work these out and use an excel table to modify the data as they come in. As for locating the strikes in the right county, you can check my estimates and raise any objections as we go along. Hopefully it won't be too big an issue. Looking forward to tracking this as it may have some applications to my research so certainly not a time waster for me anyway. And also, sticking with my posted forecast in post 1.

Some may be wondering, what if there's a big outbreak on the first? Well, you can scoop that real time information and guarantee yourself at least a medium score in the bonus, or tempt the fates and call for a larger total in the future. But what if you wait until late 2nd and use data from the 2nd? That may not be an issue but if anyone does reference past data on the 2nd (or later days) then bonus scores will be reduced by 50%. That does not apply to late forecasts which refer to the 1st, their penalty will be only the standard late penalty overall.

jd · 30-06-2015 8:21pm

15.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.1 _ 118 _ 101 _ 26th Wexford

waterways · 30-06-2015 9:24pm

Dear Mrs. M.T. Cranium, you must be very lucky to have a husband, who is baking special lightening cakes.

waterways · 30-06-2015 9:33pm

Is the national sea area of the counties regarding the lightening strikes included?

Rikand · 30-06-2015 9:36pm

waterways wrote: »

Is the national sea area of the counties regarding the lightening strikes included?

Question says " on land " so I'd guess no

waterways · 30-06-2015 9:56pm

16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135

Schadenfreudia · 01-07-2015 7:23am

waterways wrote: »

16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135

I fear you have left some questions unanswered.....;)

rameire · 01-07-2015 9:43am

15.4_ 26.9 _ 6.4_ 105_ 98_ 24th Tipperary

dacogawa · 01-07-2015 12:02pm

15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.9 _ 135 _ 104 _ 20th Wexford

Joe Public · 01-07-2015 12:11pm

14.9 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 109 _ 99 _ 1st Belmullet

Jpmarn · 01-07-2015 2:29pm

16.5_ 27.9_ 4.5_ 130_ 85 _ 22nd Dublin

John mac · 01-07-2015 6:08pm

15.0 _ 27.5 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 98 _ 1st Westmeath

DOCARCH · 01-07-2015 6:52pm

16.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 85 _ 110 _ 21st Westmeath

kindredspirit · 01-07-2015 8:07pm

15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 _ 15 _ Kerry.

waterways · 01-07-2015 8:47pm

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I fear you have left some questions unanswered.....;)

oops, ok
16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135 _ 27th _ Kerry

mickger844posts · 01-07-2015 10:20pm

16.5 _ 26.8 _ 6.5 _ 85 _ 119 _ 12th Waterford

mrskinner · 01-07-2015 11:13pm

15.6...26.6...3.6...86...96...16 Kilkenny

Tae laidir · 02-07-2015 1:09am

15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.2 _ 135 _ 95 _ 25th Carlow

Lumi · 02-07-2015 7:10am

15.7 _ 26.9 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 23th Westmeath

Harps · 02-07-2015 8:42am

15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.9 _ 100 _ 120 _ 18th Cavan

lostinashford · 02-07-2015 3:33pm

15.2 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 96 _ 115 _ 4th Wicklow

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2015 10:49pm

Table of forecasts July 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Lightning max

Jpmarn ______________ 16.5 _ 27.9 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 22nd Dublin
waterways ____________16.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 067 _ 135 ___ 27th Kerry
mickger844posts _______16.5 _ 26.8 _ 6.5 _ 085 _ 119 ___ 12th Waterford
DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 21st Westmeath
M.T. Cranium __________16.0 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 28th Wicklow
omicron ______________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 6.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25th Wexford
200motels ____________ 15.9 _ 28.9 _ 4.9 _ 089 _ 094 ___ 19th Wexford
jd ___________________ 15.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.1 _ 118 _ 101 ___ 26th Wexford
sunflower3 ____________15.8 _ 26.3 _ 5.1 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 2nd Cork
Lumi ____ (-5) ________ 15.7 _ 26.9 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23th Westmeath
Harps ___ (-5) ________ 15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.9 _ 100 _ 120 ___ 18th Cavan
Bsal _________________ 15.6 _ 26.9 _ 6.0 _ 098 _ 112 ___ 22nd Wicklow

Con Sensus ___________ 15.6 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 21st Wexford/Wicklow/Westmeath

MrSkinner ____________ 15.6 _ 26.6 _ 3.6 _ 086 _ 096 ___ 16th Kilkenny
Schadenfreudia ________ 15.5 _ 27.8 _ 7.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 21st Westmeath
rikand _______________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 21st Kildare
kindredspirit __________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 15th Kerry
pauldry ______________ 15.4 _ 27.1 _ 6.2 _ 121 _ 103 ___ 31st Offaly
rameire ______________ 15.4 _ 26.9 _ 6.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 24th Tipperary
Tae laidir _____________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.2 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 25th Carlow
dacogawa ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.9 _ 135 _ 104 ___ 20th Wexford
lostinashford __ (-5) ____15.2 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 096 _ 115 ___ 4th Wicklow
John mac _____________15.0 _ 27.5 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 1st Westmeath
dasa29 ______________ 15.0 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 15th Wicklow
Joe Public ____________ 14.9 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 1st Belmullet --> Mayo

______________________________________________

24 forecasts, median is average of 12th and 13th ranked (determines Con Sensus).

Counties selected for maximum daily lightning ...

Westmeath _ 4
Wexford ___ 4
Wicklow ___ 4
Kerry _____ 2
Carlow ____ 1
Cavan _____ 1
Cork ______ 1
Dublin _____ 1
Kildare ____ 1
Kilkenny ___ 1
Mayo ______1
Offaly _____ 1
Tipperary __ 1
Waterford __ 1

Now that I have amended the table of entries, there are three tied for top spot and I will score Con Sensus for any of those (let's hope it will be elsewhere).

July 2015 Boards forecast contest

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