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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Welsh Wizard


    Well done M.T., Once again another reason to use this thread, Met eir could really do with M.T. I think you'll agree.?
    The tent is coming out for the first time, and make a weekend of it....

    Is this what "They" call an Indian summer.....?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 11 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    This is indeed like an Indian summer weather pattern, never too sure how the term is used in the British Isles, but in North America it would technically be a long spell of calm weather like this, but somewhat later in the year, after the first frosts. These are very common patterns in Ontario where I used to live, and made more pleasant by the spectacular colour change usually at its peak during such a spell. October or early November would be the time for these, with the current spell it's more like a delayed summer perhaps. Although it has proven to be quite chilly in most places overnight, I saw a couple of places at 5 C in my look around the reporting stations.

    And the basic idea is that the spell may last another week. You have to realize, all of us doing weather forecasts are facing the same problem with this sort of spell, the computer models may show it breaking down eight days from now or whatever, but that has to be taken as a rough estimate in these situations, it could be five days or it could be fifteen -- so the potential errors in long-range parts of these forecasts would be quite large (if the high breaks down earlier than expected, the weather will change much faster).

    It looks to me as though this high is not going anywhere very fast, but the weather will vary slightly as it drifts to one side or the other (the high that is). From now to about Sunday the high will be a little closer to Scotland, and this will allow a weak southeast flow across Ireland. This means that it could be as warm as 20 or 21 C away from the south or east coasts each day through the weekend. The nights will stay about the same as last night, extensively clear at first, then with some dense fog patches forming. Lows will tend to be 4-7 C for most places, a bit warmer in the mid-town areas.

    So that takes us through to Monday and the first half of next week is looking just very slightly cooler as the high drifts west from Scotland and may get slightly west of Donegal for a day or two. This will place Ireland in a weak northeast flow that won't be quite as toasty warm in the daytime, although still around 17-19 C. The fog situation may ease slightly because of the breeze picking up to 10 mph or so. However there will probably still be some fog.

    Then later next week it could be like "deja vu all over again" with the high back overhead for a last stand and a return to weather conditions like today's. Eventually (the models are suggesting about the end of next week) the high will weaken, depart, and it will be back to a more normal southwesterly flow pattern, but even then, the systems may be weakened and it may not rain very much when the fronts do arrive at that point, although the cloud cover will increase back to 50-70 per cent again.

    All of this is somewhat speculative because this is a "blocking" pattern and these are notoriously difficult to time and predict end stages, so expect these forecasts to change as the models pick up better signals.

    If you've heard about "Fred" in the Cape Verde region, it seems like a non-issue, a storm that is destined to meet a slow death in the "Sargasso Sea" area southwest of the Azores. But we'll keep an eye on it, just in case.

    Well, I hope you'll continue to enjoy this fine spell, nice that it comes over a weekend too -- we had a pretty fair day here too, sunny and 21 C, currently clear at 10 p.m., and I just saw the ISS fly over a few minutes ago (got the times from a website which I will post here tomorrow, I think there's a link that you can use for timing satellite appearances in Ireland too.)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    yeah glad of this dry spell,looks like a last hurrah before the big change to wintry conditions.where did the year go.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,493 ✭✭✭Fulton Crown


    Well done M.T., Once again another reason to use this thread, Met eir could really do with M.T. I think you'll agree.?
    The tent is coming out for the first time, and make a weekend of it....

    Is this what "They" call an Indian summer.....?

    +1 Move over Dr.Aidan - bring in The Cranium !!:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 125 ✭✭La Madame


    We waited all July and August for this type of settled weather.
    I feel much better now waking in the mornings and see the sunshine outside.
    I think most places on the Continent (The European one) had a good summer...

    Beer Drinkers support Farmers!

    Abolish infamous Minimum Unit Pricing!



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    Question MT -

    you say it's like a late Summer.

    Could it instead be an early Winter?

    B

    PS - myself and Fred stopped talking as soon as he hit a TS. Far too slow moving to be anything of interest here! Even if he was a hurricane.

    He might still pop by as one of those mellow mists though...!:D

    b


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Friday, 8 p.m.
    ___________________

    An empty cranium on TV, that would frighten a lot of people, no?

    Mind you, over this way we are used to it.

    I mentioned the ISS being visible, you can probably google a link but for example tonight, if you get out there about 9:22 pm in Dublin and I'm just estimating more like 9:18 pm in western parts of Ireland, assuming it's clear, you'll see it floating across your sky at a fairly high angle in the south, start looking for it above the western horizon and within about two minutes it will be high to the south, then it fades out as it heads east (not picking up as much sunlight). The reason you won't see it later in the night is that the sun has set "up there" as well. I may be a few minutes off on that western guess, so if you really want to see it, allow about a ten minute window on either side of those times (which refer to when the thing becomes visible, it takes about 2-3 minutes to reach "transit" so you'll be able to see it for five or six minutes. You'll know you have the right object and not a plane if it looks like a white version of Venus and keeps up a steady movement without making sound like a high-flying jet plane would. Towards the end of the run, you will probably notice (as I did here last evening) Jupiter rising in the southeast, about one-third as bright as the ISS, at this point the ISS will be fading to about the same brightness as Jupiter and off to its left (due east more or less).

    Okay, I'm not saying this would be the most exciting thing to do on a warm Friday evening, but there you have it. The weather here today is also sunny and about 23 C just past high noon local time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 968 ✭✭✭Oliverdog


    Thanks MT for the (literally !) heads-up.

    We just walked up the lane and watched the ISS at 9:25 on a blameless Kerry evening. Quite a sight - thanks once again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That's good then, I realized after posting that it isn't going to take even four minutes for the ISS to orbit across Ireland, it only takes what, ninety minutes or so to orbit the earth, and Ireland is about four degrees of longitude wide, so that's 1/90 of the way round the earth and conveniently I can do the math in my head there, it's one minute to sail across Ireland so it hardly matters where you are, the Dublin times are pretty close.

    I'll post that link for you, the one that shows Dublin is at

    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/JavaSSOP.html

    click on Dublin and then "next sighting" although I notice by trying it today, they have forgotten to void times already past, probably forgot the five or six hours time difference from Dublin to wherever they are based, so tonight's already-done apparition at 2142 shows up as "next sighting" at the moment (although it's now 2315 your time). So bear that in mind if you are planning ahead, the "next sighting" really is now tomorrow (Saturday) at 9:47 pm if I'm reading it right, and this one should be interesting because the sun sets on the ISS just about when it reaches maximum brightness to your SSW. At that point it will either go totally dark or just a point of light perhaps, would be interesting to catch that, and it demonstrates that these ISS sightings would fall no later than about 90 minutes after sunset.

    Anyway, I hope that link works and like I said, you would need to go out a minute or two earlier in western parts of Ireland. It's a good idea to find a dark viewpoint without street lights if you're in a town, like I have to do here, luckily there's a cemetery close at hand (are you getting a sort of overall picture, empty cranium, cemetery ... * shudder * ) :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 12 September, 2009
    ______________________________

    Very little has changed since the last forecast, but I will post an update as follows ...

    TODAY, once any fog burns off it should be a glorious sunny day in most places with a rather warm feel to the sunshine too, highs could reach 22 C in most favoured locations (inland west) and 18 C just about everywhere, at least. As I was saying days ago, there is always that slight risk of a rogue fog-bank drifting inland somewhere but you could probably walk out of it.

    TONIGHT will be back to clear skies, cooling off again well after midnight to lows of about 6 to 9 C mostly, and fog is once again going to become fairly widespread by dawn.

    SUNDAY should be just about the same as today, the one thing that may change slightly is that more high cloud (cirrus mostly) will begin to spread across the sky and perhaps dim the sunshine slightly in a few places, but it won't be a big deal, and highs will reach about the same values, 18-22 C.

    MONDAY, after a cool clear start with more fog, it should once again become mostly sunny and hazy with highs of about 19 C. A slight northeast wind is going to begin to affect east coast locations especially south of Dublin, but only 10-15 mph.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY look about the same as previously advertised, just slightly cooler in a weak northeast flow that will drop the daytime readings to 17-19 C mostly, and perhaps reduce the amount of fog forming overnight, but these will be subtle changes and it will generally seem like the same weather pattern continuing.

    THURSDAY, if the models are "bang on" then the ridge returns from the west and cuts off the northeast flow so it should be similar to today again, only with increasing cloud from distant Atlantic fronts that are beginning to break out of their stalled pattern.

    FRIDAY will then be a day of possible breakdown of this pattern with cloud and a little rain possible, but as I stressed before, these model timings for blocks to break down are not always very reliable, this could turn into a postponed breakdown event that we keep waiting to see in "real time," or it could on the other hand speed up and show its hand earlier.

    I posted some info on the ISS in the previous post and it looks quite interesting for Ireland because you just happen to be under the point where sunlight suddenly stops hitting the space station, and it goes dark while crossing your night sky around 9:50 p.m. See above for more details. I just saw it here but it stayed sunlit, and actually went right overhead on its way past.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 362 ✭✭annieee


    Here is my forecast: SCORCHIO!

    scorchio.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    No weather update, just a brief report on my weather here today, which has been sunny and very warm, 25 C feels quite hot in the sun ... the usual re-emergence of stunned wasps (and this is not a political commerntary now) who just can't believe their good luck, but can't remember how to fly.

    Do you have that problem in Ireland too?

    Anyway, a reminder, if you have a few minutes to spare after 9:40 pm, find a dark spot and look to your southwest, you should see the ISS rising towards a high point to your south and according to the website, it is supposed to lose sunlight just at that point (around 9:47 p.m.) and I guess it either disappears or goes very faint at that time. Could be an interesting sight. You'll certainly spot Jupiter rising in the southeast, quite a bright golden colour, the ISS to my eye at least was fairly whitish.

    I'd love to hear from anyone who manages to see this fade-out happening, I may get a chance here later on as we also have one scheduled about that time locally.

    By the way, on the subject of visible planets, Venus is a bright morning star these days, you would see it in the southeast about two hours before sunrise until daylight fades it out. Mars is also visible in the morning hours, rising before Venus and it would be close to the waning third quarter moon tonight. It might be after 0100 before you'd see these very high above the southeast horizon. Saturn is currently lost to our view in the Sun's glare and is about to move behind the Sun from our perspective later this month. Mercury is sometimes visible too, probably was about two or three weeks ago in the evening (at its brightest it is about like the stars in Orion's belt for visibility) but not at the moment, it's leaving the evening twilight zone of visibility, heading for a pass in front of the Sun on the 20th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭sillybird


    Thanks for the heads up MT. Have to say it was hard to miss as it was moving so fast! Spectacular the way it just disapeared within seconds! Will look out for it again tomorrow. According to the website earlier tomorrow evening @ 08:36 PM. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    MT - same with the wasps here, pains in the ass as they are! Stunned mostly but some are just flying low also. Plenty around this year.

    Please do me a favour. Hit me over the head tomorrow when I should be looking at the sky. Missed it. Knew about it and missed it.:o:mad::(


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, good stuff ... it won't disappear tomorrow by the way, it has to be that exact time after sunset (whatever it was on Saturday) or the sunlight will continue to hit the ISS until it disappears over the eastern horizon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    MT tnks

    but could this be an early Winter?


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Cheers for the ISS updates MTC , for once we actually have enough clear sky to see the damm thing :pac:, btw when will the rains return :rolleyes: , it's been bone dry for almost 4 days :( , place is like a dust bowl here :D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 13 September, 2009
    ___________________________

    More of the same ... can you stand it? I had to laugh at the dust bowl developing, it's bound to be only a day or two before the "global warming has altered our weather patterns" stories hit the popular press too, as the long dry spell nears day five.

    For a forecast, just scroll back to yesterday's effort and that remains valid, a string of warm, sunny days now to possibly Thursday or even Friday before substantial amounts of cloud appear again. There could be higher cloud at times skirting mainly to the south and far north, and a slight increase by mid-week in a weak northeast wind but this is really looking like a marginal change really, it may be noticeable in a few places around the southeast coast in terms of a stronger breeze at mid-day. Highs each day will continue in the current range of 18-22 C and possibly drop off very slightly mid-week.

    Nights will remain clear, foggy in many places before sunrise to about 0930 or so, and this will be somewhat of a hazard for driving especially when the sun shines into the fog banks, I always find that difficult around here. Looks as though some light rain could eventually arrive once this spell breaks down in another five or six days time.

    I may update this during the day if I see any developments on later runs.

    Not that anyone should be inside reading computer screens on a day such as this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Great stuff MTC , long may it continue , the piccy taken this morning in my location , looking toward Tralee and West Kerry , in the background is Slieve Mish Mountain , perhaps you recall this area from your visit all those years ago :).

    002ea.th.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 6:40 p.m.
    _______________________

    Yes, I do remember some wonderful scenery and people from Kerry and elsewhere too, although we were not favoured by such weather except for perhaps one or two days in Galway (which I have come to realize is rather ironic). Well, I just popped by to add this weather update, it seems that a weak push of slightly cooler air is filtering west across England today as the high tends to reposition ever so slightly northwestward, but looking at tomorrow's maps, it seems that this push of cooler air (which is extensively cloud-covered and about 16-17 C) will tend to spread out over a larger area and perhaps lose the slight "edge" that it has so far, in other words, it may turn out to be just a slow increase in cloud cover in the east tomorrow, in part because the wind direction remains southeast until later Monday, so the cloud and slight cooling trend may possibly become more noticeable on Tuesday when the gradient winds become a bit stronger northeasterly. These changes will be more significant in Dublin and other east coast locations than well inland, or western counties. For those regions the warm spell with considerable sunshine returning each day should continue with perhaps only the slightest downturn in temperature. This slight change will also allow the clear nights to cool down even further, which brings a slight risk of ground frost into the equation, more likely in north central valley locations than anywhere else.

    Meanwhile, our own sunny and warm spell continues here and it's looking like another high well up into the 20s today as it is 22 C at 1050 local time.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,179 ✭✭✭snow scorpion


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    ..., btw when will the rains return :rolleyes: , it's been bone dry for almost 4 days :( , place is like a dust bowl here :D.

    Here in New York, we see the news from RTE once a week and they said you guys are getting more good weather for the next 10 days.

    Ballybunion Sunday, 13 Sept:
    suhweet.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    20.40 local time ,very bright , very visible , was that the ISS MTC ? , any link to a timetable for the coming week ;).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,100 ✭✭✭nilhg


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    20.40 local time ,very bright , very visible , was that the ISS MTC ? , any link to a timetable for the coming week ;).

    This is for my location, but shouldn't be too far off for most of the country ( you can set your own location on the home page), it does seem as if it was the ISS you saw.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    nilhg wrote: »
    This is for my location, but shouldn't be too far off for most of the country ( you can set your own location on the home page), it does seem as if it was the ISS you saw.

    Just saw your post too late nilhg , missed the 2nd pass by a few mins :(, no problems with light pollution here so hopefully clear sky's for a few more nights , cheers ;).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 14 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY the fine spell of mostly sunny weather should continue with perhaps a little more cloud evident in eastern counties and especially Ulster. With a slight easterly component to the wind, temperatures are likely to vary from about 17 C around Dublin (possibly as low as 15 C in parts of Ulster) to about 21 C in some inland western counties. Local sea breezes and randomly drifting fog banks near some coasts will complicate things slightly. Some fog may be slow to clear this morning too as cooler air drains into the eastern part of the country.

    TONIGHT will return to clear, rather chilly conditions except where cloud drifts in from the east. That cloud may settle to fog or mist while inland clear skies could also turn to fog, and by morning this fog could be quite dense in places. North central valleys could drop to 2-4 C, other locations 4-7 C mostly. A touch of ground frost is possible.

    TUESDAY will bring somewhat gustier northeast breezes and possibly the cloud slowly spreading from the Irish Sea will make a morning advance into other sections of Ireland then clear slowly after mid-morning. Highs are likely to fall by several degrees, to the range of 14 C east to 18 C west. Winds will become noticeable around the east and south coasts, NE 15-25 mph at times, but lighter inland.

    WEDNESDAY, after quite a cold, foggy start, the day should brighten to partial sunshine and highs around 16 or 17 C. Winds now will be a bit lighter again.

    THURSDAY may be a touch warmer again as the ridge redevelops overhead, so the morning will start out foggy and cool, the afternoon could be as warm as 19-20 C again.

    FRIDAY to SUNDAY, as you'll recall, I said I wasn't that confident of the models knowing much about the timing of the breakdown, and now they have a different view, a developing southeast flow that could bring some cloud and drizzle to some southern counties perhaps, but is likely to be rather dry elsewhere.

    I have the hunch that any breakdown of this spell will eventually be a "retrogression" of the high westwards into the mid-Atlantic with the gates opening to northerly flow from east of Iceland ... so the month could end with some much cooler weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    Well, it pretty much stayed cloudy all day in the Dublin region with only a few glimpses of sun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    Great stuff MTC , long may it continue , the piccy taken this morning in my location , looking toward Tralee and West Kerry , in the background is Slieve Mish Mountain , perhaps you recall this area from your visit all those years ago :).

    002ea.th.jpg

    i'm glad to see you're enjoying the settled weather, i just hope there won't be a recurrence of those past floods come Sunday evening:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 15 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will continue somewhat cloudy in many regions, but probably with a little more sunshine in the east than yesterday, and highs of about 16 to 19 C with the warmer readings in the south central to inland western regions. Some mist will linger for a while this morning, and a rather keen northeast breeze will develop fairly soon after sunrise and reach 20-30 mph at times near the southeast coast. There could be some light drizzle at times where cloud is slow to break.

    TONIGHT will likely become clear again in many areas and could be more extensively foggy than last night, with some rather low readings in the northern inland districts, 3-6 C but closer to 5-9 C for lows elsewhere.

    WEDNESDAY will bring somewhat more sunshine again, with cloudy intervals, and highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY should be back to the more balmy sunshine of last weekend as the ridge rebuilds (it has drifted west and then it should drift back east to where it was on Saturday). Therefore, the highs may be back to the vicinity of 20 or 21 C in some western counties and 17 C in the east. Nights will be clear, and foggy in many places.

    THE WEEKEND continues somewhat uncertain as the models try to assess whether the ridge will break down at all, and if so, from the south or the northwest. We've had several different "looks" in the past few runs, and I think the best forecast suggestion is to say, probably mostly dry, could be more cloud than sun, and temperatures near normal. At this stage, can't rule out some rain although this seems more likely late Sunday and in the west mostly.

    NEXT WEEK is currently looking rather variable and mild, perhaps even warm at times, until near the end of the month when the highly uncertain long-range signals are for much cooler northerly type weather.




  • Tuesday, 15 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will continue somewhat cloudy in many regions, but probably with a little more sunshine in the east than yesterday,
    The irish sea is producing showers.It's been raining steady here for the last 10 minutes and is as dull as ditch water-I have the lights on.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 492 ✭✭glimmerman123


    It's rather cloudy and breezy here in North Tipperary at the moment. M.T i enjoy your daily updates and although i don't post too often i do check in a couple of times everyday and i must say i find your forecasts very accurate keep up the good work and thanks. :)


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