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Flash contest -- almost a heat wave 26-28 June top temp

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  • #62
    jonny_b
    Registered Users Posts: 645 ✭✭✭jonny_b


    29.6 Shannon Thursday 27th


  • #63
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,336 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    klaaaz wrote: »
    What happens if the updated forecasts released today changes things for Weds-Fri ? not fair on the earlier contributors? ;)

    Some folks are lucky and some ain't ;)


  • #64
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    29.9c Oak Park Friday 28th


  • #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of entries for warm spell maximum temperature 26-28 June

    Note: If you picked a location not in the list of met.ie stations, one is assigned to your choice.


    Rank __ FORECASTER ______________ Temp __ Location _________ Date

    _ 01 __ John.Icy __________________ 34.1 ___ Oak Park _________
    _ 02 __ InstaSte __________________ 31.0 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 03 __ scottigael _________________ 30.4 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 04a _ seamusk84 ________________30.2 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 04b ____Tazio __________________ 30.2 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 06 __ Neddyusa _________________ 30.1 ___ Mountdillon ______ Thursday 27
    _ 07 __ rikand ____________________ 30.0 ___ Mountdillon ______ Thursday 27
    _ 08 __ BLIZZARD7 ________________29.9 ___ Oak Park ________ Friday 28
    _ 09 __ M.T. Cranium ______________ 29.8 ___ Mountdillon ______ Thursday 27
    _ 10a _ JCX BXC __________________ 29.7 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 28
    _ 10b ___ rickis tache ______________ 29.7 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 10c ___ Danno __________________ 29.7 ___ Oak Park ________ Friday 28
    _ 13 __ jonny b ___________________29.6 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 14a_ MrSkinner _________________ 29.5 ___ Casement ________Thursday 27
    _ 14b ___ sdanseo ________________ 29.5 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 16a _ dublincelt _________________ 29.3 ___ Oak Park ________ Thursday 27
    _ 16b ___ adam240610 _____________29.3 ___ Shannon ________ Friday 28
    _ 18 __ KevRossi __________________29.2 ___ Mountdillon ______ Thursday 27
    _ 19 __ Beechwoodspark ____________28.7 ___ Oak Park ________ Thursday 27
    _ 20a _ iPhone ____________________28.6 ___ Claremorris ______ Friday 28
    _ 20b ___ Rougies _________________28.6 ___ Gurteen _________ Friday 28
    _ 20c ___ Pops 20 _________________28.6 ___ Gurteen _________ Thursday 27
    _ 23 __ Gonzo ____________________28.5 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 24a _ nacho libre ________________ 28.4 ___ Mountdillon ______ Friday 28
    _ 24b ___ Slieve Gullion ____________ 28.4 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 24c ___ Call me Al _______________28.4 ___ Newport _________ Thursday 27
    _ 27 __ Dero123 __________________28.2 ___ Oak Park ________ Thursday 27
    _ 28a _ January Snowstorm _________ 28.1 ___ Claremorris _______Thursday 27
    _ 28b ___ amadangomor ___________ 28.1 ___ Gurteen _________ Thursday 27

    (median) __ Consensus _____________28.1 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27

    _ 30a _ sunflower _________________ 28.0 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 30b ___ nthClare ________________ 28.0 ___ (Lahinch) _ Ath ____Friday 28
    _ 32 __ pauldry ___________________27.9 ___ Oak Park _________Thursday 27
    _ 33 __ ZX7R _____________________27.8 ___ Oak Park ________ Thursday 27
    _ 34 __ CirrusBusiness _____________ 27.6 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 35a _ Berties_Horse ______________27.5 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 35b ___ Artane 2002 _____________ 27.5 ___ Mountdillon ______ Thursday 27
    _ 35c ___ Jpmarn _________________ 27.5 ___ Shannon ________ Friday 28
    _ 38 __ sryanbruen ________________27.4 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 39a _ Darwin ___________________ 27.3 ___ Gurteen _________ Thursday 27
    _ 39b ___ Zeek12 _________________ 27.3 ___ Shannon ________ Thursday 27
    _ 41a _ Reckless Abandonment _______27.2 ___ Oak Park ________ Thursday 27
    _ 41b___ meteorite 58 _____________ 27.2 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 41c ___ esposito ________________ 27.2 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 44 __ Oscar Bravo _______________ 27.0 ___ Mountdillon _______Thursday 27
    _ 45 __ snowstreams _______________26.8 ___ Gurteen _________ Thursday 27
    _ 46a _ smallgarden _______________ 26.7 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 46b ___ mickger844posts __________26.7 ___ Oak Park _________Thursday 27
    _ 48a _ Darc19 ___________________ 26.6 ___ Moorepark _______ Thursday 27
    _ 48b ___ Mount Vesuvius __________ 26.6 ___ Shannon _________ Thursday 27
    _ 50 __ bsal ______________________26.5 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 51 __ pad199207 ________________ 26.3 ___ Shannon _________Thursday 27
    _ 52 __ klaaaz ____________________26.0 ___ Shannon _________ Thursday 27
    _ 53 __ Little snowy old me _________ 25.8 ___ Claremorris _______ Thursday 27
    _ 54 __ alentejo __________________ 25.5 ___ Shannon _________ Thursday 27
    _ 55 __ AdamB ___________________ 25.3 ___ Gurteen __________Thursday 27
    _ 56 __ reg114 ___________________ 24.9 ___ Mullingar _________ Thursday 27
    _ 57 __ Elmer Blooker ______________23.5 ___ Mountdillon _______ Thursday 27

    _________________________________

    Locations chosen so far

    25 __ Shannon
    10 ___Oak Park
    8 ___Mountdillon
    7 ___Gurteen
    3 ___Claremorris
    1 ___Athenry, Casement, Moorepark, Mullingar

    Dates chosen so far

    Thu 27 ___ 48
    Fri 28 _____ 8
    (none ) ____1

    =========================================================

    DEADLINE HAS PASSED -- LATER ENTRIES WILL NOT BE INCLUDED

    (John.Icy can post date for temperature until 1500h today, 3 pt late penalty if correct, Wed not allowed)


  • #66
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Slieve Gullion wrote: »
    Shannon: Thursday: 28.4c

    Looks like you have a job offer in met eireann with your accuracy 😂


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  • #67
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,492 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Slieve Gullion wrote: »
    You're way out with that guess. :o

    Fair play!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #68
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Sorry MT didn't even realise I never posted a day. How much of a penalty for saying Friday at this point :D:D


  • #69
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So for the time being, these locations qualify for points ... this list will be amended with the high temperatures from Friday.

    1. Shannon ___ 28.4 ___ 20 points

    2. Valentia ____28.0 ___ 15 points (nobody chose this one though)

    ... also Kerry Airport hit 28 but that isn't a site used in the contest, just FYI

    3. Moorepark __27.0 ___ 12 points

    4. Newport ___ 25.4 ___ 10 points

    5. Markree ___ 25.2 ____ 9 points (not chosen in contest)

    6. Mace Head _ 25.1 ____ 8 points (not chosen in contest)

    7. Oak Park ___25.0 ____ 7 points

    8. Claremorris _24.6 ____ 6 points

    9. Finner _____24.4 ____ 5 points (not chosen in contest)

    10. Athenry ___ 24.3 ____ 4 points

    11. Mtdillon ___24.1 ____ 3 points

    12. Gurteen ___23.9 ____ 2 points

    13. Knock ____ 23.8 ____ 1 points (not chosen in contest)

    14. Cork _____ 23.3 _____0 points (not chosen in contest) etc

    We shall see how today changes this list and the main elements of maximum temperature and date.

    (John.Icy -- too late now but with that temperature you're up against it anyway)


  • #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looking at reported maximum temperatures for Friday, unfortunately I cannot finalize scoring on the contest because I suspect the reading for Casement could be in error, the met.ie report is 28.4, but the meteociel report says 24.8 which is more consistent with hourly obs.

    If I assume it is 24.8, then the list above would be amended as follows for final scoring ...

    1. Shannon ___ 28.4 ___ 20 points

    2. Valentia ____28.0 ___ 15 points (nobody chose this one though)

    ... also Kerry Airport hit 28 but that isn't a site used in the contest, just FYI

    3. Moorepark __27.0 ___ 12 points

    4. Newport ___ 25.4 ___ 10 points

    5. Markree ___ 25.2 ____ 9 points (not chosen in contest)

    6. Mace Head _ 25.1 ____ 8 points (not chosen in contest)

    7. Oak Park ___25.0 ____ 7 points

    8. Casement __24.8 ____ 6 points

    9. Claremorris _24.6 ____ 5 points

    10. Finner _____24.4 ____ 4 points (not chosen in contest)

    11. Athenry ___ 24.3 ____ 3 points

    12. Mtdillon ___24.1 ____ 2 points

    12. Phoenix Park 24.1 ___ 2 points (not chosen in contest)

    14. Gurteen ___23.9 ____ 0 points

    15. Knock ____ 23.8 ____ 0 points (not chosen in contest)

    15. Dunsany __ 23.8 ____ 0 points (not chosen in contest)

    17. Cork _____ 23.3 _____0 points (not chosen in contest) etc

    ==================================================

    If Casement really did tie Shannon, that would mean everyone would get the ten points for warmest day, and would drop the locations between 2nd and 7th to 3rd to 8th places.

    I may not be able to confirm the actual answer then until the Monthly Summary appears (that will clear up the question of whether Casement hit 28.4 or not). Or we may see a correction later today.

    Based on my list above, the scoring can be posted later today then adjusted if necessary.

    Either way, Slieve Gullion would have a perfect score of 100 and Gonzo close second with 99 points. Well done to them.

    Will post the entire scoring list when time permits.


  • #71
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Preliminary contest scoring

    As explained above, the reading for Casement on Friday 28th may be in error, waiting for confirmation on that. Assuming it was actually 24.8 and not 28.4, then this would be the final contest scoring ... with the scores in brackets that would apply if Casement was 28.4 on Friday. That would change some of the rankings.

    Rank __ FORECASTER ____________ Temp __ Loc'n __ Date ____ TOTAL __ (if Casement 28.4)

    _ 01 __ Slieve Gullion ______________ 70 ___ 20 ___ 10 ______ 100 __ (100)

    _ 02 __ Gonzo ____________________69 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 99 ___ (99)

    _(03)_ Consensus _________________67 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 97 ___ (97)

    _ 03 __ sunflower _________________ 66 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 96 ___ (96)

    _ 04 __ CirrusBusiness _____________ 62 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 92 ___ (92)
    _ 05 __ Berties_Horse ______________61 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 91 ___ (91)
    _T06 __ Call me Al ________________ 70 ___ 10 ___ 10 _______ 90 ___ (89)
    _T06 __ sryanbruen ________________60 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 90 ___ (90)
    _T08 __ sdanseo __________________ 59 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 89 ___ (89)
    _T08 __ Zeek12 ___________________59 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 89 ___ (89)
    _T10 __ meteorite 58 ______________ 58 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 88 ___ (88)
    _T10 __ esposito __________________ 58 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 88 ___ (88)
    _T10 __ jonny b ___________________58 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 88 ___ (88)

    _T13 __ JCX BXC __________________57 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 87 ___ (87)
    _T13 __ rickis tache ________________57 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 87 ___ (87)
    _ 15 __ Dero123 __________________ 68 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 85 ___ (84)
    _ 16 __ Beechwoodspark ____________67 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 84 ___ (83)
    _ 17 __ smallgarden _______________ 53 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 83 ___ (83)
    _T18 __ pauldry ___________________65 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 82 ___ (81)
    _T18 __ seamusk84 ________________52 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 82 ___ (82)
    _T18 __ Tazio ____________________ 52 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 82 ___ (82)
    _T18 __ Mount Vesuvius ____________ 52 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 82 ___ (82)

    _T22 __ ZX7R ____________________ 64 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 81 ___ (80)
    _T22 __ Jpmarn ___________________61 ___ 20 ___ 00 _______ 81 ___ (91)
    _T22 __ adam240610 ______________ 61 ___ 20 ___ 00 _______ 81 ___ (91)
    _T22 __ bsal _____________________ 51 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 81 ___ (81)
    _ 26 __ scottigael _________________ 50 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 80 ___ (80)
    _ 27 __ pad199207 ________________49 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 79 ___ (79)
    _T28 __ dublincelt _________________61 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 78 ___ (77)
    _T28 __ Pops 20 __________________ 68 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 78 ___ (78)
    _ 30 __ amadangomor _____________ 67 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 77 ___ (77)

    _ 31 __ klaaaz ____________________ 46 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 76 ___ (76)
    _ 32 __ Reckless Abandonment _______58 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 75 ___ (74)
    _ 33 __ MrSkinner _________________ 59 ___ 06 ___ 10 _______ 75 ___ (89)
    _T34 __ Darc19 ___________________ 52 ___ 12 ___ 10 _______ 74 ___ (72)
    _T34 __ InstaSte __________________ 44 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 74 ___ (74)
    _T34 __ KevRossi __________________62 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 74 ___ (74)
    _ 37 __ iPhone ____________________68 ___ 05 ___ 00 _______ 73 ___ (83)
    _ 38 __ Artane 2002 _______________ 61 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 73 ___ (73)
    _T39 __ January Snowstorm _________ 67 ___ 05 ___ 10 _______ 72 ___ (72)
    _T39 __ nacho libre ________________ 70 ___ 02 ___ 00 _______ 72 ___ (82)

    _ 41 __ alentejo ___________________ 41 ___ 20 ___ 10 _______ 71 ___ (71)
    _ 42 __ mickger844posts ____________53 ___ 07 ___ 10 _______ 70 ___ (69)
    _T43 __ nthClare __________________ 66 ___ 03 ___ 00 _______ 69 ___ (79)
    _T43 __ Darwin ___________________ 59 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 69 ___ (69)
    _T45 __ Rougies ___________________68 ___ 00 ___ 00 _______ 68 ___ (78)
    _T45 __ Oscar Bravo _______________ 56 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 68 ___ (68)
    _T45 __ M.T. Cranium ______________ 56 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 68 ___ (68)
    _ 48 __ rikand ____________________ 54 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 66 ___ (66)
    _ 49 __ Neddyusa _________________ 53 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 65 ___ (65)
    _T50 __ snowstreams ______________ 54 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 64 ___ (64)
    _T50 __ Danno ___________________ 57 ___ 07 ___ 00 _______ 64 ___ (74)

    _ 52 __ BLIZZARD7 ________________55 ___ 07 ___ 00 _______ 62 ___ (72)
    _ 53 __ Little snowy old me _________ 44 ___ 05 ___ 10 _______ 59 ___ (59)
    _ 54 __ AdamB ___________________ 39 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 49 ___ (49)
    _ 55 __ reg114 ___________________ 35 ___ 00 ___ 10 _______ 45 ___ (45)
    _ 56 __ Elmer Blooker ______________21 ___ 02 ___ 10 _______ 33 ___ (33)
    _ 57 __ John.Icy __________________ 13 ___ 07 ___ 00 _______ 20 ___ (20)

    _________________________________

    This scoring table will be either confirmed or amended when Casement's Friday 28th max is confirmed.


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  • #72
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Casement's max was 24 8 alright. The synop gave this figure and only one half-hourly metar gave 25 degrees. It would have gone at higher only for the cloud rolled in. I took off from Weston at 4 pm but there was a world of difference landing at 5 pm.

    METAR EIME 281330Z 08010KT 9999 FEW045 22/12 Q1019=

    METAR EIME 281400Z 17008KT 9999 FEW040 25/13 Q1018=

    METAR EIME 281430Z 16009KT 9999 FEW040 24/14 Q1018=

    METAR EIME 281500Z VRB02KT 9999 SCT040 SCT100 23/13 Q1018=


  • #73
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, GL, you have to be impressed by the consensus score here, the weather forum model stacked up pretty well against the other guidance. Some of the ensemble members were a bit off though. ;)


  • #74
    Slieve Gullion
    Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Slieve Gullion


    Thanks M.T. for setting up this little flash competition.

    I suppose this gives me celebrity status around here from now on then eh. :p

    Now that you've seen my superior acumen at work, if any of you lesser punks ever need any advice on the weather don't hesitate to pm me. :P:D










    Yours

    in jest :)


  • #75
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    ah missed it . //


  • #76
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update on the Casement situation -- the Monthly Summary just out does not mention the Casement 29th reading, only the Shannon 28th reading of 28.4. The daily data on the website remain incomplete (26th is last day available). So it begins to appear that the Casement reading will not survive quality control. This would make the first set of scores valid and those in brackets would be tossed.


  • #77
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,316 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It is now official that Casement hit 24.8 and not 28.4 on the 28th. Daily data have been posted with the correction included.


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