June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry · 13-06-2019 4:13pm

Crikey just look at that Belmullet figure!!

This year is a scorcher

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2019 5:02pm

I was actually in the UK all through June 1972 on a visit and it was frigid especially for somebody who had just left behind some hot weather in May. I don't remember much about it other than constant cloud, drizzle and cold winds. The stats show that it wasn't nearly as wet as this month. It got a little better in the first week of July before I returned home.

My only visit to Ireland was in June 1978 and it wasn't very warm then either (last twelve days of that month to be specific), although I think it was just a touch below normal perhaps. Hoping to return one day, my wife hasn't been to Ireland in her travels (just once with me to the UK) or anywhere in Europe (I have done some travelling there, all in either 1972 or 1974, but lots of places left to see including Italy and Greece).

Probably won't be this year as we have just moved so maybe next year.

pauldry · 13-06-2019 7:02pm

Surely all the boardies could chip in a tenner to get to see the famous MTC in our country. Surely a bigger event than Trump in Doonbeg

Jpmarn · 14-06-2019 1:57am

My father was driving a tractor to an out farm about 9 miles away in June 72. He was telling me that he was getting perished. It was a platform tractor with no cab. He needed to do some work there.

Jpmarn · 14-06-2019 9:34am

The battle of 2 of the busiest airports in the country takes on a new twist. We have a new leader. 12.7 v12.1 Cork 7 Dublin 6.
Dublin has suffered from being under frontal clouds for the past couple of days with depressed temperatures but not an awful lot of rainfall.

pauldry · 14-06-2019 1:52pm

Is there a shock on the cards or will Dublin empty the bench?

Jpmarn · 15-06-2019 9:56am

pauldry wrote: »

Is there a shock on the cards or will Dublin empty the bench?

It looks like Dublin has put on a sub in this battle of the airports.
12.8 for Cork v 14.0 for Dublin 7-7 so far.

pauldry · 15-06-2019 2:01pm

If its a draw do we replay in July when someone will have to win?

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2019 6:08pm

After two weeks ...

IMT now on 11.2, this past week 11.1 was 2.4 deg below average.

MAX remains an open file and MIN was 1.2 C.

PRC now 153% of normal, the past week while drizzly much of the time was relatively dry at 74% of normal.

SUN has managed to improve to 95% of normal, past week was actually above normal at 107% (643/600) despite the two Dublin area locations being a little below average.

Bonus has reached 7-7 to date.

pauldry · 16-06-2019 12:01pm

New min

1.1c Markree

Jpmarn · 16-06-2019 2:50pm

In this Airport Battle the bar has risen with higher temperatures. But it is Dublin that’s hotting up more than Cork. Scoring 14.2 v 16.4 Cork 7 Dublin 8. With higher temperatures forecast during the week the battle is going on a new level.
Shannon Airport reported 18°c at 1300.

M.T. Cranium · 16-06-2019 3:47pm

I thought we might extend this concept for the bonus, in July we could have Connacht vs Ulster then in August the two winners could play for the all-Ireland title (probably Dublin will win this month, but to be determined). If we do have a tie at end of June, they would play off on 1st of July (outside the contest bonus scoring).

So for Connacht it should probably be Athenry or Claremorris, but for Ulster, I am thinking either Finner Camp or Ballyhaise (Malin Head obviously would lose one of these to anywhere but possibly Belmullet).

So which two stations do you want to pick for this (Athenry/Claremorris vs Finner Camp/Ballyhaise) for July? I think I would set the normal at 17-14 in favour of Connacht.

Jpmarn · 17-06-2019 12:41pm

Here is the score check in our Airport Battle, Cork 7(15.3) Dublin 9 (16.4).

Probable high temperature unless there is a higher figure earlier this month. 18.8°C at Shannon Airport. Surely if this is not beaten so far it will be this week if forecasts are correct.

Jpmarn · 18-06-2019 9:46am

The battle of the Airports are heating up. Cork has 16.1°c so remains on 7 points. Dublin is now on 10 points after scoring a high of 18.2°c.

Tae laidir · 18-06-2019 1:07pm

We might also have a new monthly max with Phoenix Park at a dizzying high of 19.4.
Connaught v Ulster is a difficult one as the weather does not seem to vary as much due to wind direction, and the distance between stations is smaller.
How about max wind or gust at Mace v Malin?

Artane2002 · 18-06-2019 4:51pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

We might also have a new monthly max with Phoenix Park at a dizzying high of 19.4.
Connaught v Ulster is a difficult one as the weather does not seem to vary as much due to wind direction, and the distance between stations is smaller.
How about max wind or gust at Mace v Malin?

Or maybe rainfall, same as the Dublin v Cork daily temperature except with rainfall instead of temperatures. Maybe Belmullet vs Malin or something like that?

M.T. Cranium · 18-06-2019 5:23pm

Well the thing about temperature would be to maintain the format through a second semi-final so to speak, then have a final version in August. But as you say the temperature contrast from any station in Connacht to Ulster might be so random as to remove real interest from the exercise. So unless I hear a fairly widespread appeal to go with that concept, I will just drop it altogether and have a more conventional bonus question. Not a problem, this has been an interesting one in itself.

Jpmarn · 18-06-2019 7:42pm

The battle of the provinces would be interesting as a bonus question in a future month. It probably be more gripping than this months battle of the Airports. Another battle is Malin Head v. Sherkin Island (Mizen Head nearest station).

pauldry · 18-06-2019 9:56pm

Connacht and Ulster do vary

e.g Ballyhaise and Claremorris are warmer than Knock or Malin or Belmullet.

Perhaps even more mysterious is the wet and hot weather in Furnace Newport which can be 21c one day but 12c the next with 35mm of rain.

Living in the West and Northwest there is huge variations in locations.

Markree is way sunnier than Sligo
Newport is way warmer than Belmullet
Claremorris warm but so is Ballyhaise.
Malin Head freezing

A good West v North might actually be Knock v Malin as they are both cold so would be close.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2019 6:24am

I guess with Newport it's a little further from the open ocean so any sort of southeast wind component will have an overland trajectory and even some downsloping off the Connemara hills (might be reason why it sometimes warms up more than other locations). Belmullet is pretty exposed to almost all wind directions with at least some fetch over cold water. Malin can sometimes avoid the marine influence with a strong enough south to southeast wind.

Marine layers are tricky to forecast. They were having some trouble doing it with the recent U.S. Open golf, and I know from living near the coast how fickle the marine layer can be, from day to day in a spell of quiet weather, and from place to place, have seen many times where the dense fog will drift into some parts of downtown Vancouver while a few kms away there is bright sunshine. And the temperature contrast in the marine layer can be very strong. The Great Lakes have lake breeze environments where you can actually feel the temperature changing as you walk away from the lakeshore. Have seen cases in April-May where it would be 5-7 C at the lakeshore and 23 C at Toronto airport which is like 15 kms inland. Even a small lake can have a dramatic impact on local temperatures, have seen examples of 15 to 30 C within a half km near lakes that were either ice covered in May or just after losing their winter ice, and in one case the lake was only a couple of miles wide and twenty miles north-south.

Jpmarn · 19-06-2019 10:14am

Update on the battle of the airports. There was only 0.2°c difference in the high temperatures recorded at Cork and Dublin Airports. 16.8 V 17.0 making it Cork 7 Dublin 11. If minimum temperatures had to be used as a tiebreaker Cork also loses.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2019 2:48pm

MAX now 19.7 (Mountdillon 18th), Gurteen no report to be checked also.

Artane2002 · 19-06-2019 3:03pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

MAX now 19.7 (Mountdillon 18th), Gurteen no report to be checked also.

Was there not a 20.0c at Phoenix Park and Newport?

pauldry · 20-06-2019 12:16pm

Its not going to matter by this time next week as those figures will be well breached

Tae laidir · 20-06-2019 12:16pm

16. 9 v 16.7. 2 point win for Cork. 8 - 11

Tae laidir · 20-06-2019 12:23pm

16.9 v 16.7. 2 point win for Cork. 8 - 11

Jpmarn · 21-06-2019 9:55am

In this Battle of the Airports Dublin did take a stumble on the 19 of June giving a point away to Cork but powers on from yesterday’s result.

16.1 V 16.7 Giving Cork 8 Dublin 12.

With a forecast of a very warm easterly flow next week it looks like there would a dramatic fight back from Cork as Dublin could be affected by the cool Irish Sea.

Jpmarn · 22-06-2019 9:49am

In this Airport Battle we have to use a tiebreaker to separate the airports in order to award a point as per rules set by M.T. see page 1 for the first time this month.

Both airports recorded a max temperature of 15.8°C making a draw.
As a tiebreaker we are awarding a point to the airport with the highest Min.
Cork 7.4°C Dublin 6.4° Giving score now of 9 - 12 after 21 days of battle with 9 more points still in the bag. For a lot of this month the bar has been low but it will be much higher next week.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2019 2:49pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 11.44 with this past week 12.2, 1.8 below normal. With the predicted warm spell, the IMT will probably average 18 from now to end, resulting in an outcome near 13.5, about normal for June.

MAX has been no higher than 20 so far, may exceed that today but will push into mid-20s or higher. MIN of 1.1 probably now set.

PRC has fallen to 138% with this past week at 79% of normal (the south was quite dry, some northern locations above normal). Amounts from now to end of month likely to be in a similar range to current value, but an entirely dry nine days would bring the average to 96% of normal so it can't be less than 100% if even a minimal amount of rain falls.

SUN is now up to 110% with this past week at 141% (857/600). Hard to say whether this will go up or down given the complexity of the forecast, probably down slightly. Normal by end of month requires 77% from today to 30th.

The current score in the bonus question is 9 for Cork and 12 for Dublin. I think with the warm southeast flow they may share the wins depending on cloud and rainfall, so the outcome may be around 12 to 18 or 13 to 17.

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2019 5:23pm

Bonus update 9-13 after Dublin edged Cork by one degree (17.1 v 16.0) on Saturday 22nd.

New MAX 21.1 at Mountdillon. (may last to mid-week anyway)

June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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