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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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24567…311

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    #32
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users Posts: 11,269 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-leaked-document-says-uk-proposal-fails-to-solve-backstop-issues-11815201
    A leaked European Commission memo has said the UK government's latest draft proposals for a new Brexit deal "fall short of satisfying all the objectives of the Irish backstop".

    Well, it's Groundhog Day...again.


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    #33
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1175035971068452864

    Amusing tbf.

    Thornberry is a sharp politician, but comparing the Lib Dems Brexit policy to the Taliban is lazy and just fuels more animosity in what a pretty angry political climate.


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    #34
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,559 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    This is Tony Connelly on the UK proposals and some of the EU responses.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099582990159879?s=20

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099585875890182?s=20

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099588585373704?s=20

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099591584309249?s=20

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099594256068615?s=20

    When you see the words being used as insane and backwards steps, its not great. His last tweet seems to spell it out,

    "One member state said the UK had gone a few steps forward by proposing an all-Ireland SPS zone, but had now gone ten steps back."


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    #35
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,269 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    time to break off talks now really - just getting insulting at this stage


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    #36
    cml387
    Registered Users Posts: 8,363 ✭✭✭cml387


    Enough for Britain to say that"We did our best but the EU were totally intransigent"

    If Tony Connolly's tweets are correct (and let's face it he has seldom been wrong before) it's game over.


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    #37
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,343 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    lawred2 wrote: »
    time to break off talks now really - just getting insulting at this stage

    That's exactly what Johnson and co want


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    #38
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    cml387 wrote: »
    Enough for Britain to say that"We did our best but the EU were totally intransigent"

    If Tony Connolly's tweets are correct (and let's face it he has seldom been wrong before) it's game over.
    I think so too.
    Let the us and the EU deal with the problem and hassle on the border and then use the resulting chaos to get better trade deal.
    They'll say: jeez look at all the trouble on that border, if you want us to help sort this then give us X, Y and Z.


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    #39
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,444 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099585875890182

    Spot the DUP nit picking nonsense here.


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    #40
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    That's exactly what Johnson and co want

    Better way of doing things would be to basically come out and say that the UK despite all warnings refuses to bring foward workable and realistic solutions and that all states should prepare for an inevitable hard brexit unless theres a significant change of stance or goverment in the UK.

    Also announce what tariffs etc will apply as of 1/11/19 and if necessary state any additional costs will be levied on UK imports until such a time as HMG agrees a realistic trade deal including all terms of the previously agreed WA that they reneged on.


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    #41
    ilovesmybrick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    Tell me how wrote:
    In 8 months time, when people are talking about FG being a joke and sure look at the childrens hospital and the homeless issue and swinggate etc, I hope they also recognize the individual qualities some people have. I hate it when people just look at the party (FF, FG, SF, Lab, whoever) and discount everyone within because of a perceived ethos which the party have. I've always respected Micheal Martin similarly (introduced smoking ban which was revolutionary at the time).


    I'd be pretty far from a FG voter, and really don't see myself changing any time soon. However, Coveney will make an excellent Taoiseach when his day comes.


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    #42
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,444 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    My own view at this point is the EU should have come out on receipt of this absolute nonsense and called a complete halt to all negotiations very publicly with a press conference.

    No Deal won't last long, before UK needs to be back at the table. We can deal with it in a few months.


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    #43
    woohoo!!!
    Registered Users Posts: 803 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    The EU is doing fine. I came across a tweet earlier that in a negotiation where one side increasingly doesn't trust the other side, they demand precise, legally binding proposals or precisely the opposite of what Johnson is doing. Other trading blocs and countries are already pricing this untrustworthiness in. Whilst they may succeed domestically in the short term, the cost/price is going to be horrific.


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    #44
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1175125903518687233

    I'm not sure Labour understand the rules of the game. Anytime it seems they've an open goal they go and shoot themselves in the foot


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    #45
    ltd440
    Registered Users Posts: 292 ✭✭ltd440


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1175125903518687233

    I'm not sure Labour understand the rules of the game. Anytime it seems they've an open goal they go and shoot themselves in the foot
    Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
    Boris can't believe his luck I'd say


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    #46
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    ltd440 wrote: »
    Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
    Boris can't believe his luck I'd say

    Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.


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    #47
    A Shropshire Lad
    Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭A Shropshire Lad


    There will be a Backstop, it just wont be called a 'Backstop' so Boris can say he got rid of the Backstop!

    DUP will have to accept some different status for NI than the rest of UK. More or less in the customs union, more or less in the single market.

    The other point about that would be that Scotland would look at this 'special status' for NI and say, hang on, we want that too!

    Christmas for the SNP


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    #48
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,695 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    woohoo!!! wrote: »
    I came across a tweet earlier that in a negotiation where one side increasingly doesn't trust the other side, they demand precise, legally binding proposals or precisely the opposite of what Johnson is doing. Other trading blocs and countries are already pricing this untrustworthiness in.

    This point is yet another one lost on the Brexiters: for all their petty attempts at spinning EU "cave ins" and "backing down" and "poor Boris, humiliated" for the domestic audience, they've forgotten that all their future trading partners are watching. Attending trade negotiations with a bunch of papers saying "you can look, but you can't touch" is not just pissing off the EU, it's exposing the undeniable weakness of the British position, and the amateurishness of their team, to everyone else who might want to trade with them.

    No amount of oomph can make up for an unrelenting series of misjudgements.


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    #49
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Good thread this evening by Peter Foster which I think gets to the heart of the Johnson/Cummings strategy.
    The reason the EU is making warm noises is not because they like UK 'non-papers', but because they can see Johnson is utterly cornered and hope he might 'pivot' to a manageable deal.

    But in truth, I think there is first a much bigger question to address. Why would Boris Johnson risk it?

    Because step back from the minutiae of this 'deal' issue and what is clear is that we are in a General Election campaign.

    This is not a government, its a campaign machine.

    So if we view Johnson's decision post Party Conference through that political prism, then what?

    The EU's rejected slice n dice and he can:

    a) pivot to a deal, some version of NI-only, or maybe extended transition etc and in doing so take a HUGE risk.

    I don't know about you, but I don't trust those Labour votes materialising.

    And if they don't, then Boris Johnson goes into the next election have BOTH pivoted towards a compromise his Brexit base are gonna hate AND failed to meet his Oct 31 'do or die' deadline. That's a double whammy.

    Would it not be more politically rationale not to muddy the waters?

    To stand rock solid on the backstop and keep burnishing those hard-Brexit, bucaneering Britain credentials and enter the inevitable election campaign unsullied by compromise?

    In short, there is a notional prize of doing a deal and getting Brexit over the line by October 31 before the election is appealing...but that's probably only possible with a deal that enrages the base and anyway has a high chance of failing in London.

    Seems to me that Steve Barclay Madrid speech fits that pattern...keep tilting at the notional deal, and then - come October 17 Council - you can call the EU all manner of names as you prepare to hit the campaign trail demanding a majority to get the job done.

    I guess all will be revealed after Party Conference and at the point when the 'negotiations' hit the customs buffer...

    To pivot, or not to pivot, that is the question...Parliament has already nobbled you once, why give them the satisfaction of doing so again?

    I hear the Letwin plan of using an extension to create a 'zombie' government while Parliament passes a Withdrawal Bill subject to a referendum, but that feels a stretch to me.

    And once the extension is forced, will Labour really be able to shirk an election?

    At that point Johnson valiantly (after Court fights etc) loses the battle but seeks to rally Brexit forces to his standard to win the war.

    All of which makes me weary - and sceptical about talk of a deal; greater forces are at play here than the viability of customs technologies.

    In short: Johnson is in a corner. My gut says he feints and counters, rather than sues for peace.

    I think this is the likely scenario. I can't see Johnson being seen to 'cave' ahead of the party's conference, and if there is an extension which is followed by an election then he is not going to want to be portrayed as soft with Farage breathing down his neck.

    From what Tony Connelly has reported tonight, it's obvious the UK aren't putting forward credible alternatives to the backstop.

    If we look at Johnson's twin problem of both keeping his party on message and winning over the Brexit voters, doing nothing is the option with the least risk. If he throws the DUP under the bus and signals a shift towards accepting the Withdrawal Agreement, then he not only loses their votes but also has elements of the ERG who have said they don't like the WA - the likes of Francois - on his case, and Farage will accuse him of not delivering a proper Brexit. Why make that gamble now ahead of an election?

    If he sits on his hands and does nothing, keeps waffling about the vigour and dynamism of his sham talks, then he can keep giving the Brexit voters the soundbites they want to hear, keep sending the EU nonsense ideas, safe in the knowledge that Westminster will likely put the brakes on the prospect of a No Deal Brexit by compelling an extension.

    I can just picture the sham performance he gives about how he is incandescent with rage at being forced to do this, bloomin' furious, apoplectic, how he can't wait for an election to put the surrender merchants to the sword etc.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #50
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Infini wrote: »
    Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.

    It's Momentum behind it, which of course has always backed the leader, but i dont think Corbyn is in any way directly behind it. Labour membership majority have been seeking a vote on deputy leadership for some time, so conference is probably their chance to do something about it.

    “Labour members overwhelmingly want a deputy leadership election, but our outdated rulebook won’t let it happen. You need 20% of Labour MPs to trigger an election, and they just won’t let the members have a fair and open election.”


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    #51
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭trellheim


    From what Tony Connelly has reported tonight, it's obvious the UK aren't putting forward credible alternatives to the backstop.

    YET . Got conference still to come on the 29th and then after that the fun really begins. Remember this is NOT about the EU its all UK internal politics.

    In other news Labour conference starts tomorrow and exactly as expected the infightings started, why does the left at every turn shoot itself in the foot its the same in Ireland


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    #52
    ltd440
    Registered Users Posts: 292 ✭✭ltd440


    Infini wrote: »
    ltd440 wrote: »
    Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
    Boris can't believe his luck I'd say

    Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.
    Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy


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    #53
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    A Shropshire Lad wrote: »
    The other point about that would be that Scotland would look at this 'special status' for NI and say, hang on, we want that too!

    Christmas for the SNP

    Scotland have no case to argue for special status and the EU wouldn't grant it to them anyway. Should Brexit happen, it's a simple in-out of the UK choice if Scotland want EU membership.


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    #54
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    ltd440 wrote: »
    Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

    In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems


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    #55
    ltd440
    Registered Users Posts: 292 ✭✭ltd440


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    ltd440 wrote: »
    Corbyn supporters, although may only be a bit of a warning to the deputy to stay on message with Jeremy

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

    In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems
    Wow, it's clear that to the politicians in the UK, brexit comes very far behind party politics.
    Irish politicians, who are united on the issue make it all look professional and easy to compromise.
    While we actually know ff/fg hate each others guts


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    #56
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

    Labour showing they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as much as the next.

    Jo Swinson happiest with this but it doesn't bode well for removing the Tories.


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    #57
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175141143283154944

    In brexit Britain there is only room for the true believers everyone else is a counter revolutionary. If you aren't a true believer you can join the party for lost boys the Lib Dems

    In fairness Watson seemed to be carrying on like he was in another party altogether.


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    #58
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    I was talking to a few remained from Leicester a few days ago, they were condemning of the tories and had high regard for Coveney and varadkar. I had to partially disagree with the second statement as it's very easy to defend from the European position compared to the brexiteers position


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    #59
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 17,981 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    trellheim wrote: »
    YET . Got conference still to come on the 29th and then after that the fun really begins. Remember this is NOT about the EU its all UK internal politics.

    In other news Labour conference starts tomorrow and exactly as expected the infightings started, why does the left at every turn shoot itself in the foot its the same in Ireland

    I think you're being optimistic. The likes of Connelly and Foster are very sceptical that Johnson is looking for a deal.


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    #60
    reslfj
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The EEC morphing into a much closer federal union which prevented individual deals with other countries really pissed off some of the elite in the UK.

    "The customs union is a principal component of the European Union, since its establishment in 1958 as the European Economic Community." /wikipedia

    The SM was created under Margaret Thatcher and and very much by the EEC commissioner she appointed Arthur Cockfield. It was first in the treaties by January 1993.

    The SM requires identical standards, rules and regulations in all member states
    primarily for goods. Strict standards and regulations are surely absolutely necessary in any modern economy.

    Note the FoM for workers was always in the treaties right from the Treaty of Rome from 1958 (and in some ways FoM was in the coal and steel union)

    Lars :)


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    #61
    GM228
    Registered Users Posts: 8,925 ✭✭✭GM228


    GM228 wrote: »
    Headshot wrote: »
     Has anyone been keeping up with the court proceedings? Any legal experts saying anything on what side the supreme court with go in favour of?

    Personally id be amazed if it goes agains the Government, I suspect the Judges wont want to get involved in politics and just do what the court in London did

    Various legal experts are of the opinion the Government will loose, however as Lady Hale (the President of the Supreme Court) stated today, don't make assumptions.

    Just to come back to this, as I have previously stated it really could go in either sides favour, though many in the profession seem to believe the Government will loose:-

    https://twitter.com/DinahRoseQC/status/1174685669412786176?s=19

    https://twitter.com/WomaninHavana/status/1174689759177973761?s=19 


    David Allen Green, however notes what a Barrister friend has told him who has studied the judges record on previous cases, not a true indicator of any result but interesting reasoning none the less:-

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174766501804617728

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1174767450354847744

    [url] 


    Also a decent article by David Allen Green in today's Financial Times about the difficulties of the case:-

    https://www.ft.com/content/096bb96c-db8a-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
    Financial Times wrote:
    The court may or may not be able to plug the gaps in this unprecedented case with its extraordinary facts. But whichever way the judges decide, there will remain a wider worrying gap between a determined executive and ready access to checks and balances. On any view, a complicated Supreme Court case, the outcome of which nobody can predict, should not be all that stands in the way of arbitrary government.

    And to finish off, for me the Tweet of the week in relation to the Supreme Court case:-

    https://twitter.com/thewritertype/status/1173924042291765248?s=19

    Best synopsis.


This discussion has been closed.
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