Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
05-04-2020, 16:22   #46
WhiteMemento9
Registered User
 
WhiteMemento9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,313
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
When you consider that owners, including myself, report that hundreds of people apply for rentals when they are advertised, a few hundred properties does not make a significant difference. All those Airbnb properties will not return to the rental market. From reports about numbers who applied for PP, it would seem Hosts are ignoring the regs. Collecting the info about short lets is easy, just open Airbnb/Booking.com etc, but having the info is not enough to prosecute. The LA have to prove money was paid, catch the guest in the property and confirm they were guests who paid for a short let. A tall order to do in any meaningful number of cases, LA staff literally have to watch the property to catch the guest.

I’ll look for the article.
I am not saying they will all return to LT rentals but saying that they don't represent a significant proportion of rentals in Dublin that contribute massively to the current problems in the market is disingenuous. You said in your last post that even if they were all released back to the market it wouldn't make any difference and that is clearly not true. We are not talking a few hundred but almost five thousand properties.

There is a pretty simple solution to gather actual proof of doing dummy rentals. Considering it is very obvious when places are in breach and success rate would be extremely high to cover costs of having people rent the places undercover. for the purposes of gathering evidence for prosecutions. I am sure a private company would be willing to undertake the task considering it would currently be an extremely lucrative contract. (Edit - Obviously right now, not so much )

Last edited by WhiteMemento9; 05-04-2020 at 16:27.
WhiteMemento9 is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
05-04-2020, 16:30   #47
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteMemento9 View Post
I am not saying they will all return to LT rentals but saying that they don't represent a significant proportion of rentals in Dublin that contribute massively to the current problems in the market is disingenuous. You said in your last post that even if they were all released back to the market it wouldn't make any difference and that is clearly not true. We are not talking a few hundred but almost five thousand properties.

There is a pretty simple solution to gather actual proof of doing dummy rentals. Considering it is very obvious when places are in breach and success rate would be extremely high to cover costs of having people rent the places undercover. for the purposes of gathering evidence for prosecutions. I am sure a private company would be willing to undertake the task considering it would currently be an extremely lucrative contract.
Do you believe 1% is a significant change? And that would be if all properties returned.

Getting the evidence is not easy:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.iri...bnbs-1.3708469
Dav010 is online now  
05-04-2020, 16:34   #48
sabat
Registered User
 
sabat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,215
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post

Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.
Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently. Unless you have a unique or very well located house it might be more profitable to just get regular tenants, especially when you factor in vacancies, cleaning, maintenance, assorted airbnb hassles etc.
sabat is offline  
05-04-2020, 16:41   #49
WhiteMemento9
Registered User
 
WhiteMemento9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,313
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
Do you believe 1% is a significant change? And that would be if all properties returned.
All dumped on the market tomorrow. Yes it would represent a massive change. There is usually about 1.5k of these type of properties on Daft for rental in Dublin at any one time each day. Are they going to help with the housing crisis in Dublin, NO. Are they going to help with the rent situation in this particular sector of the market, massively.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
I don't see what is so hard judging on that article. It is exactly as I suggested and given the rewards of shooting fish in a barrell for a few months the upside would be massive. As I said let a private company take it on and you have no start up costs.
WhiteMemento9 is offline  
05-04-2020, 16:42   #50
Ozark707
Registered User
 
Ozark707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by sabat View Post
Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently.
This is a very good point, international travel is going to take a long time to recover to previous levels so if STL's are going to sit it out and compete with hotels at lower rates then it is going to be interesting.
Ozark707 is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
05-04-2020, 16:44   #51
Idbatterim
Registered User
 
Idbatterim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 16,321
the biggest issue is, tourism has stopped and huge amounts of students etc, have returned to their family homes outside dublin. Supply is now stopped, population is still growing. I mean they would have provided what in dublin this year in terms of new units? ten thousand units + probably and prices were not dropping.

there will be drops now obviously, but if colleges , english schools ( maybe before) etc are back in september etc, that will come to an end...

if this turns out to be on the lesser end of the scale of disaster, rents could be cheapest, during early summer, when leases on college places are up and supply normally increases (to be taken up often by more tourists, but this summer or at least early summer , that is highly unlikely)...
Idbatterim is offline  
05-04-2020, 16:46   #52
Graham
Moderator
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 12,499
I'd anticipate there will be almost no tourism for the remainder of the year and what bit we do get is going to be nowhere near enough to sustain most STLs.

When the tourist market does eventually return, most of the current STLs will be long gone effectively giving local authorities a very manageable clean slate when it comes to controlling new entrants to the STL market.
Graham is online now  
05-04-2020, 16:50   #53
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by sabat View Post
Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently. Unless you have a unique or very well located house it might be more profitable to just get regular tenants, especially when you factor in vacancies, cleaning, maintenance, assorted airbnb hassles etc.
Very true, but STLetting is an emotive subject for a verity of reasons. From my own Airbnb experience, guests tend to be families/friends who want the benefits a whole property provides. I was in New York last year, with teenagers, an apartment was better and more practice than 4 hotel rooms. So when tourism returns, there will be a market for STLs.

The reality is that new builds have a far greater effect on supply. Many developments currently under construction in Dublin are forward financed, the financing depends on receiving a certain minimum level of rental income. Right now that building has stopped so supply, much needed will be further delayed. During the last recession, people emigrated to get work, with joblessness rising in virtually every country, particularly the traditional markets like the US, UK and Australia, there is no place to go. So, same population, same low supply., and the likelihood of more small LLs selling. Makes STLs pretty insignificant in the greater scheme of things.
Dav010 is online now  
05-04-2020, 16:50   #54
Ozark707
Registered User
 
Ozark707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 216
Will any LL's contact their tenants to try and agree a new (lower) deal before the tenants call them with a potentially bigger reduction?
Ozark707 is offline  
Advertisement
05-04-2020, 16:53   #55
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham View Post
I'd anticipate there will be almost no tourism for the remainder of the year and what bit we do get is going to be nowhere near enough to sustain most STLs.

When the tourist market does eventually return, most of the current STLs will be long gone effectively giving local authorities a very manageable clean slate when it comes to controlling new entrants to the STL market.
Graham, lots of hotels won’t open until the numbers of tourists increase. People can go online today and book an Airbnb for later in the year. I have had loads of cancellations, but I’ve still got a few bookings from September onwards.

Existing entrants can stay on Airbnb. You can block/suspend bookings if you want.
Dav010 is online now  
05-04-2020, 16:54   #56
Ozark707
Registered User
 
Ozark707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
Many developments currently under construction in Dublin are forward financed, the financing depends on receiving a certain minimum level of rental income. Right now that building has stopped so supply, much needed will be further delayed.
There is also a number of developments that are about to hit the market with now no chance of receiving the rents they might have expected to get 6 weeks ago. Are they simply just going to leave them empty with no rent roll from them? That might be fine if it was just going to be a few weeks but now it is generally excepted that this will go on for longer than this.
Ozark707 is offline  
05-04-2020, 16:59   #57
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozark707 View Post
There is also a number of developments that are about to hit the market with now no chance of receiving the rents they might have expected to get 6 weeks ago. Are they simply just going to leave them empty with no rent roll from them? That might be fine if it was just going to be a few weeks but now it is generally excepted that this will go on for longer than this.
According to the finance expert on the Last Word, there is a development in the IFSC with one third occupancy, the owners preferred to leave units empty than rent at a lower price. Posted about it while it was on, on another thread, it should be up on a podcast. But I’m not going to look back through all my posts to find the date. I suspect most big developers will wait to see how this plays out. But again, time will tell, at the moment a lot of those developments are far from complete.
Dav010 is online now  
05-04-2020, 17:04   #58
Ozark707
Registered User
 
Ozark707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
According to the finance expert on the Last Word, there is a development in the IFSC with one third occupancy, the owners preferred to leave units empty than rent at a lower price. Posted about it while it was on, on another thread, it should be up on a podcast. But I’m not going to look back through all my posts to find the date.
Capital Dock was over 50% empty after a year (unsurprising given the astronomical rents they were looking at). Another development down there listed that all 2 beds could have a month free...well before Covid hit and still the same (obviously). There are other developments further afield which also look like they are not shifting in any meaningful manner....their backers must have deep pockets...
Ozark707 is offline  
05-04-2020, 17:11   #59
Dav010
Registered User
 
Dav010's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozark707 View Post
Capital Dock was over 50% empty after a year (unsurprising given the astronomical rents they were looking at). Another development down there listed that all 2 beds could have a month free...well before Covid hit and still the same (obviously). There are other developments further afield which also look like they are not shifting in any meaningful manner....their backers must have deep pockets...
In a lot of cases they are institutional investment firms, deep pockets 2 months ago, squeaky bum time now. But they are far more likely to wait it out than small time LLs would have been, had so many of them not left the market. A few ads with lower prices today is not a quantitative indicator of market collapse, it will take another couple of months before the true effect can be measured. A general downward push on rents may be counteracted by a further reduction in supply if LLs sell off investment properties.
Dav010 is online now  
05-04-2020, 17:12   #60
Graham
Moderator
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 12,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dav010 View Post
Graham, lots of hotels won’t open until the numbers of tourists increase. People can go online today and book an Airbnb for later in the year. I have had loads of cancellations, but I’ve still got a few bookings from September onwards.
I suspect many AirBnB hosts are the same.

I'd guess many of those haven't cancelled yet as the extenuating circumstances cancellation policy only applies to stays up to May 31st (for now).

I don't envy any hosts dependant on a handful of bookings 6 months from now, most couldn't survive as evidenced by the sudden rush back to long-term rentals.
Graham is online now  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet