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05-04-2020, 14:26   #31
WhiteMemento9
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Originally Posted by Reversal View Post
Is there anything that will stop these properties going back to Airbnb once the short term let's are up? Will the fact a property was in the residential rental market make it easier to enforce the law?
Some of them are being offered as 12 month rentals already. So they won't be returning to Airbnb. Most I see are being offered as 2-3 month rentals. I think they will soon start to realise that the demand for the properties on Airbnb will be low for much longer than when we see most of the restrictions lifted and will will join others in putting them into the long term rental pool. In many cases they won't have a choice as they will get into massive financial difficulty if these properties aren't generating any revenue.

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05-04-2020, 14:30   #32
headtheball14
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If you are letting a property e.g. a one bed and pulling in 15000/16000 a year you would need a high occupancy level with an Airbnb to match that. With letting of a properly organised property you could go 12 months without having any contact with tenants. In an Airbnb you have cleaning, laundry, taking bookings etc all the time. Hard to see that this is worth whatever extra income you might get
If you have an agency running it then you can have very limited involvement in an Airbnb. You have the potential of a let that causes one or two nights damage, along with some level of coverage of damages in an Airbnb. This is compared to the potential of a year or two of not receiving rent along with legal action to remove a tenant, the tax treatment is the same more or less currently .
I think what’s interesting is the complete lack of enforcement or ability to enforce the Airbnb regulations that were brought in but the effect actually limiting the income that could be made from Airbnb has made.
At the moment in general, current taxation doesn’t encourage activity, this may change if there is increases in property tax for example.
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05-04-2020, 14:31   #33
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Last edited by Mic 1972; 05-04-2020 at 14:44.
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05-04-2020, 14:42   #34
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Originally Posted by WhiteMemento9 View Post
Some of them are being offered as 12 month rentals already. So they won't be returning to Airbnb. Most I see are being offered as 2-3 month rentals. I think they will soon start to realise that the demand for the properties on Airbnb will be low for much longer than when we see most of the restrictions lifted and will will join others in putting them into the long term rental pool. In many cases they won't have a choice as they will get into massive financial difficulty if these properties aren't generating any revenue.
Looking around south Dublin and you have to laugh at the ex AirBnb rentals for close to 2k but with **** 3 months lease only**** in the description. As if there is much demand for €2k/pm 3 months rentals in the regular rental market so the property owner can get back to Airbnb-ing it when it suits them leaving you barely settled before you’re back to square one.

https://www.daft.ie/22018726

Last edited by cisk; 05-04-2020 at 14:47.
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05-04-2020, 14:45   #35
Graham
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I suspect those landlords are in for a short, sharp re-education cisk.
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05-04-2020, 14:52   #36
HerrKuehn
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Looking around south Dublin and you have to laugh at the ex AirBnb rentals for close to 2k but with **** 3 months lease only**** in the description. As if there is much demand for €2k/pm 3 months rentals in the regular rental market so the property owner can get back to Airbnb-ing it when it suits them leaving you barely settled before you’re back to square one.

https://www.daft.ie/22018726
That is delusional. I wouldn't imagine there is any market at all for short term leases like that at the moment.
I remember in 2008 I rented an apartment. When the year was up, in 2009, I was able to negotiate a 25% reduction. Other apartments in the same building were advertised at that price. I am not sure if it will be the same thing this time.
Will landlords be unwilling to reduce the rent given that they will be then only allowed to increase by 4% a year? It would take several years to get back to previous level.
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05-04-2020, 15:26   #37
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Talk of AirBnB is all a bit academic in the current environment.

I suspect that will remain the case for at least the remainder of 2020.

My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.
While I agree with your first two points, the third is rubbish.

When you say “wiped out”, the income made for STLs were multiples of rental income, in my case X3, I’m sure in more popular tourist areas, it was even more. 6 months of this, compared to renting, will not wipe out profits made over the last couple of years. Your post is more wishful thinking than reality.

Profits were certainly an important consideration for many owners when deciding to enter STL market, problems with the residential tenancy are equally if not more important. That has not changed, a few properties going back will not make any difference. What would be more interesting is whether 2-3 months after flights/tourism has resumed, Airbnb listings have fallen. It is possible that some properties where tenants leave will decide to take the opportunity to enter the STL market.

I read in a recent newspaper article that Airbnb’s account for about 3% of rental properties, Graham a few hundred going back to rental sector isn’t going to make a lot of difference, in fact, if every Airbnb changed to rentals, it still wouldn’t make a significant difference.

Also, some landlords may also take the opportunity to sell when tenants leave. So while there is a lot of speculation and wishful thinking, a lot of people still need places to rent, all building has stopped, landlords are selling (and more likely to do so if rents fall) and the pariah that is the Airbnb host, may hold, flip flop, or go into rental sector. No one can be sure.

The fact is, a cumulation of multiple factors will contribute to rents falling, staying the same, rising. And while there are a number of unknown variables, what we know for certain is that new builds are stalled, landlords have been selling off properties and STLs are a tiny portion of properties.

Last edited by Dav010; 05-04-2020 at 15:47.
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05-04-2020, 15:47   #38
Graham
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When you say “wiped out”, the income made for STLs were multiples of rental income, in my case X3, I’m sure in more popular tourist areas, it was even more. 6 months of this, compared to renting, will not wipe out profits made over the last couple of years. Your post is more wishful thinking than reality.
Maybe you're right Dav010.

Maybe ex-AirBnB properties are somehow insulated from property price turmoil and competition from several hundred ex-STLs all hitting an unsteady market simultaneously.

Maybe ex-AirBnB properties will sell quickly at pre-pandemic prices.

Maybe hundreds of ex-AirBnB rentals hitting the market at once aren't going to drive down market rents before locking themselves into those new market rents +4% for years to come.

Maybe (if/when) the STL market starts to return, local authorities aren't going to find it easier to play whack-a-mole with a handful of new unathorised STLs each month rather than the current cast of thousands.

Maybe.
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05-04-2020, 16:00   #39
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Maybe you're right Dav010.

Maybe ex-AirBnB properties are somehow insulated from property price turmoil and competition from several hundred ex-STLs all hitting an unsteady market simultaneously.

Maybe ex-AirBnB properties will sell quickly at pre-pandemic prices.

Maybe hundreds of ex-AirBnB rentals hitting the market at once aren't going to drive down market rents before locking themselves into those new market rents +4% for years to come.

Maybe (if/when) the STL market starts to return, local authorities aren't going to find it easier to play whack-a-mole with a handful of new unathorised STLs each month rather than the current cast of thousands.

Maybe.
Yip, that’s pretty much it in a nutshell, you can speculate and/or wish something to happen, but the market is fickle. When rents were at an all time high, LLs were selling, I can’t imagine many will be reversing investment strategy if prices are falling.

I doubt too many Hosts worry about the LA, I’m not aware of a single prosecution so far, in fact it seems the legislation is largely being ignored. I’m sure LA staff will be thrilled at the prospect ot talking to tourists from other countries, face to face, as is necessary to reach the threshold to prove a STL has occurred.

Time will tell. But in relation to Airbnb, gauging how it has effected listing should be postponed until the tourism market reopens. Listing numbers may dip now as owners rent for a while, or sell, but may rise again as new properties list and existing ones return. Maybe it will drop, maybe if rents fall, Airbnb numbers will go up.

Maybe.
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05-04-2020, 16:00   #40
WhiteMemento9
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I read in a recent newspaper article that Airbnb’s account for about 3% of rental properties, Graham a few hundred going back to rental sector isn’t going to make a lot of difference, in fact, if every Airbnb changed to rentals, it still wouldn’t make a significant difference.
Can you provide a link to the article? This thread is specifically about Dublin. 4700 entire apartments or houses plus all the rooms in other rentals. Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.

Here is the data in Dublin

I wonder how many planning permissions Dublin has on its books for Airbnb rentals? I hope they are using the data available during this time to collect information on properties in breach and impose the current fines where appropriate.
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05-04-2020, 16:02   #41
Graham
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But in relation to Airbnb, gauging how it has effected listing should be postponed until the tourism market reopens.
Absolutely right.

All we can do for now is speculate how the AirBnB/STL landscape might change.
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05-04-2020, 16:04   #42
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Originally Posted by WhiteMemento9 View Post
Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.
That would be my guess, in the short term at least.
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05-04-2020, 16:08   #43
Dav010
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Originally Posted by WhiteMemento9 View Post
Can you provide a link to the article? This thread is specifically about Dublin. 4700 entire apartments or houses plus all the rooms in other rentals. Releasing even half of these back on to the market as long term rentals would clearly have a very significant impact.

Here is the data in Dublin

I wonder how many planning permissions Dublin has on its books for Airbnb rentals? I hope they are using the data available during this time to collect information on properties in breach and impose the current fines where appropriate.
When you consider that owners, including myself, report that hundreds of people apply for rentals when they are advertised, a few hundred properties does not make a significant difference. All those Airbnb properties will not return to the rental market. From reports about numbers who applied for PP, it would seem Hosts are ignoring the regs. Collecting the info about short lets is easy, just open Airbnb/Booking.com etc, but having the info is not enough to prosecute. The LA have to prove money was paid, catch the guest in the property and confirm they were guests who paid for a short let. A tall order to do in any meaningful number of cases, LA staff literally have to watch the property to catch the guest.

I’ll look for the article.

Edit: The most recent CSO figures on rentals was 500k in 2016, Airbnb listings in peak season/summer 2019 was just under 5k.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/scraped-data-suggests-that-most-airbnb-revenue-comes-from-renting-full-homes-for-more-than-90-days-4700461-Jun2019/%3famp=1

Last edited by Dav010; 05-04-2020 at 16:20.
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05-04-2020, 16:15   #44
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Talk of enforcement is pretty meaningless in the context of zero market.
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05-04-2020, 16:19   #45
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Talk of enforcement is pretty meaningless in the context of zero market.
And zero staff.
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