Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
30-06-2020, 17:34   #9721
MrMusician18
Registered User
 
MrMusician18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 2,430
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
Someone looking to buy property in Dublin in 2014 Spring/Summer and completing sale 2-3 months later would have paid around 40% more then the ones in 2012, meaning missing bottom by large margin.
Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.
MrMusician18 is online now  
Advertisement
30-06-2020, 17:58   #9722
GreeBo
Registered User
 
GreeBo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 21,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMusician18 View Post
Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.
I dont think I would every buy a house by timing the market rather than timing when I wanted/needed a house.

Far too many stories of people stuck renting a decade later with bugger all savings to show for it.
GreeBo is offline  
(4) thanks from:
30-06-2020, 18:09   #9723
Marius34
Registered User
 
Marius34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 190
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMusician18 View Post
Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.
There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.
Marius34 is online now  
(2) thanks from:
30-06-2020, 18:48   #9724
Mascher
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 267
Quote:
Originally Posted by awec View Post
It is pretty important to point out that the people who bought around ~2012, and therefore bought at the bottom, had no idea that they were buying at the bottom, it was coincidental and only became clear in retrospect.

You can be sure there were people saying that prices were still crazy, buying a house was nuts, just wait a few more years for all the repossessions to really floor the market etc etc.
I was going to buy in late 2012 but at the time everyone was saying I was mad. I read too much boards.ie and property pin and most people thought further drops were inevitable. It was very doom and gloom then and majority of people thought prices would fall more. I convinced myself that's what was going to happen.

In 2013 prices started quickly rising and most people thought we were in a dead cat bounce. I bit the bullet and went sale agreed in late 2013 and paid 260k. Just a year earlier a similar house on my road sold for 200k. Current value is about 380k. In hindsight I did well, but at the time I thought I was buying at the top of the market and was sick with myself for not buying earlier.

What did I learn? That you cannot time the market, despite thinking you know better. What would I do again? I'd buy as soon as I could and move on with my life and forget about it. Especially with rents being so high.
Mascher is offline  
30-06-2020, 19:01   #9725
kippy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mascher View Post
I was going to buy in late 2012 but at the time everyone was saying I was mad. I read too much boards.ie and property pin and most people thought further drops were inevitable. It was very doom and gloom then and majority of people thought prices would fall more. I convinced myself that's what was going to happen.

In 2013 prices started quickly rising and most people thought we were in a dead cat bounce. I bit the bullet and went sale agreed in late 2013 and paid 260k. Just a year earlier a similar house on my road sold for 200k. Current value is about 380k. In hindsight I did well, but at the time I thought I was buying at the top of the market and was sick with myself for not buying earlier.

What did I learn? That you cannot time the market, despite thinking you know better. What would I do again? I'd buy as soon as I could and move on with my life and forget about it. Especially with rents being so high.
This is it for a lot of people. Life is short enough.
kippy is offline  
(5) thanks from:
Advertisement
30-06-2020, 19:11   #9726
Deub
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 443
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.
Trader and investor are 2 different things. Both groups have successful people doing it for life.
The property market is no different. However the issue is when non professional people try to do it. Buying a small property to “go on the property ladder” and knowing you will need to sell to get something bigger within 5 years, is a high risk strategy and most of those who managed to gain from it, did it by luck.
Deub is offline  
30-06-2020, 19:32   #9727
Mic 1972
Registered User
 
Mic 1972's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,558
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.

Q4 2019 was pointing down
Mic 1972 is offline  
Thanks from:
30-06-2020, 19:41   #9728
fliball123
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mic 1972 View Post
Q4 2019 was pointing down
I think it was more or less steady all 2019 with small drops towards the end but Q1 2020 it came back to what it was. Its hard to know what shape property is in
fliball123 is online now  
Thanks from:
30-06-2020, 19:48   #9729
Marius34
Registered User
 
Marius34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deub View Post
Trader and investor are 2 different things. Both groups have successful people doing it for life.
The property market is no different. However the issue is when non professional people try to do it. Buying a small property to “go on the property ladder” and knowing you will need to sell to get something bigger within 5 years, is a high risk strategy and most of those who managed to gain from it, did it by luck.
Investors and long term traders is same thing.
There is lots research that short-term trading rarely brings profit, you can not catch timing. There are lots scam and fraud involved in day trade.
Do you know any really rich trader, not a value based, but "day-trader", time catcher?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_trader
"Day trading sits at the extreme end of the investing spectrum from conventional buy-and-hold wisdom. It is the ultimate market-timing strategy. While all the attention that day trading attracts seems to suggest that the theory is sound, critics argue that, if that were so, at least one famous money manager would have mastered the system and claimed the title of "the Warren Buffett of day trading". The long list of successful investors that have become legends in their own time does not include a single individual that built his or her reputation by day trading."

Similar with Property (although agree property is easier to predict), but the successful Traders/Investors are typically not the ones that try to catch time, but the ones who try to find good value.

Last edited by Marius34; 30-06-2020 at 19:55.
Marius34 is online now  
Advertisement
30-06-2020, 21:34   #9730
GreeBo
Registered User
 
GreeBo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 21,289
I know a number of high frequency traders who of are laughing at that post.
GreeBo is offline  
Thanks from:
30-06-2020, 23:41   #9731
Walnut Salad
Registered User
 
Walnut Salad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wordress View Post
We were on track to being granted a mortgage and buying our first home Pre Covid. However, because we found our dream house, we did a rush job by only applying through the bank we have accounts with. We then withdrew our offer because of the uncertainty around Covid.

3 months later, my husbands job is hanging by a thread. We went back to a broker to apply for a mortgage. As soon as he found out that my husband is still on Covid payment, he sent application in as single income family based on my income.

This was over 3 weeks ago. I don't know why anyone would be shocked by AIBs approach. We knew that banks would be reluctant to lend 2-3 months ago and if we can't get a big enough mortgage, then we will continue to rent&save and hopefully strike while the iron is hot coming out of whatever downturn happens.

How anyone believes there isn't a major downtown coming is beyond me.

As I said before, business is down 60% around here. Every business feeds each other around here and incomes are way down.

Basic economics.
Good post. You made a prudent decision. The 2008 recession was inevitable and did hit hard especially when many of our young talent had to emigrate. This recession will be way more unpredictable and, for want of a better word, frightening. We wont even begin to understand the impact until the end of the year. Hopefully there wont be a second wave in Europe.
Walnut Salad is offline  
30-06-2020, 23:52   #9732
Assetbacked
Registered User
 
Assetbacked's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,103
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreeBo View Post
I know a number of high frequency traders who of are laughing at that post.
You're friends with computers?

So it's official, there is a massive asset price bubble with Wall Street stocks closing out a record quarter and Wall Street investment banks making massive fees from the Fed's QE.

https://www.ft.com/content/6d09858e-...b-9f837e4aa7c8
https://www.ft.com/content/84ee3b24-...a-5ac9c57f810a

The effect of this is to prop up zombie companies and create an asset bubble as the fundamentals of investing are thrown out the window since the Fed is just guaranteeing investments. However, the money printer will need to print money to put into the accounts of small businesses and entice consumers to spend or else the inevitable is just being prolonged. The US economy is on its knees and the social fabric is being torn apart with the BLM protests. It would be fascinating if it wasn't so frighteningly close to home given our reliance on the strength of the US economy for our own economic growth.

US property price growth, same thing happened in Ireland. Property crash there, property crash here. Big US tech companies booming, Irish Silicon Docks emerges. US tourists coming to Ireland, tourism booming. US private equity firms with cash to burn, Irish commercial property sector booms.
Assetbacked is online now  
01-07-2020, 00:02   #9733
smurgen
Registered User
 
smurgen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,473
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assetbacked View Post
You're friends with computers?

So it's official, there is a massive asset price bubble with Wall Street stocks closing out a record quarter and Wall Street investment banks making massive fees from the Fed's QE.

https://www.ft.com/content/6d09858e-...b-9f837e4aa7c8
https://www.ft.com/content/84ee3b24-...a-5ac9c57f810a

The effect of this is to prop up zombie companies and create an asset bubble as the fundamentals of investing are thrown out the window since the Fed is just guaranteeing investments. However, the money printer will need to print money to put into the accounts of small businesses and entice consumers to spend or else the inevitable is just being prolonged. The US economy is on its knees and the social fabric is being torn apart with the BLM protests. It would be fascinating if it wasn't so frighteningly close to home given our reliance on the strength of the US economy for our own economic growth.

US property price growth, same thing happened in Ireland. Property crash there, property crash here. Big US tech companies booming, Irish Silicon Docks emerges. US tourists coming to Ireland, tourism booming. US private equity firms with cash to burn, Irish commercial property sector booms.
I think it is frightening. Was reading a CNBC analyst factors for the record June quarter close figures 1 was government stimulus 2 was positive trends of the virus.
These people are in denile and the longer the bubble goes on the harder and more brutal the correction will be.
smurgen is offline  
01-07-2020, 07:25   #9734
Villa05
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,740
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgen
I think it is frightening. Was reading a CNBC analyst factors for the record June quarter close figures 1 was government stimulus 2 was positive trends of the virus. These people are in denile and the longer the bubble goes on the harder and more brutal the correction will be.
There was analogy with the punch bowl at the party during the last crash and people asking why the punch bowl was not taken away when party got out of hand

Well now the participants at the party are leg less and the punch is being forced down their throats.

Lessons learned?
Villa05 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
01-07-2020, 07:50   #9735
Villa05
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,740
Quote:
Originally Posted by awec
Generally, nicer houses in nicer areas will maintain their value for longer, and will attract more interest. Lesser houses in lesser areas will see drops sooner.
The data completely contradicts your post with Fingal the best performer and Dun laoighre/Rathdown the worst in Dublin on a growth measurement over the last 12 months.
If people can't afford current price in high demand areas, they move to areas with greater affordability
Villa05 is offline  
Thanks from:
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search