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17-11-2020, 07:22   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Strong winds will develop late Wednesday 18th

There's fairly broad model consensus that strong winds (west to northwest) will develop especially near Atlantic coasts and across most of Ulster late Wednesday, with potential for gusts to 120 km/hr. For now I have given this a Level 1 tag but expect it may be a level 2 (orange alert) event in a few places, notably Galway, Mayo, and Donegal. There is a polar low type of feature embedded in the flow moving southeast across western Scotland tomorrow night and strong winds could briefly appear in central and eastern counties as it drops towards the north Irish Sea.

Having started this off, I won't be around much until this evening now, so over to you weather forum ...
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17-11-2020, 07:32   #2
sdanseo
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00z ECM & GFS very similar

Nothing too dramatic, Level 1 / yellow seems about right.



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17-11-2020, 11:32   #3
Oscar Bravo
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Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Southwest to west winds veering northwest will reach mean speed 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h.

The combination of strong winds coupled with high tides brings an increased risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 15:00 Wednesday 18/11/2020 to 01:00 Thursday 19/11/2020

Issued: 09:00 Tuesday 17/11/2020
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17-11-2020, 17:08   #4
sdanseo
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Gerry Murphy just there making a big deal of it, emphasized "very strong gusts" a few times.

Maybe Harmonie showing something ECM isn't.

(Totally OT, but am almost embarrassed to admit RTE was even on in the background.. last time I looked at the TV was lunchtime. This work from home is now having undesired side effects- Daithi O Sé and his pal would bore the pants off even the most dedicated septuagenarian housewife. Traumatic.)
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17-11-2020, 18:13   #5
Reckless Abandonment
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Gerry ramping ?? Surely that can't be good
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17-11-2020, 19:51   #6
Gaoth Laidir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Gerry Murphy just there making a big deal of it, emphasized "very strong gusts" a few times.

Maybe Harmonie showing something ECM isn't.

(Totally OT, but am almost embarrassed to admit RTE was even on in the background.. last time I looked at the TV was lunchtime. This work from home is now having undesired side effects- Daithi O Sé and his pal would bore the pants off even the most dedicated septuagenarian housewife. Traumatic.)
Throw it over to Virgin for the Judge Judy doubleheader. It's the only way to get through those late afternoon just-switched-off-the-laptop hours. Something to dumb down the brain a bit.
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17-11-2020, 23:08   #7
Meteorite58
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Arome 18Z showing a strong sweep of W N/W winds running across the country for a time tomorrow night gusting up around 80 to 90 km/h. It is showing strongest winds in the W ,100 to 110 km/h, and later very strong winds channeling down the North Channel early Thurs morning.

ECM and ICON showing strong winds further down along the W coast as far as Kerry gusting 100 km/h and up to 110 km/h on exposed headlands would think.

ECM showing strong onshore winds ( 80 to 100 km/h ) penetrating inland for a time from Mayo down to Kerry.

New colder airmass, feeling very cold tomorrow evening with the Windchill. Heavy showers, some of hail possible more so in the W, NW

Looks like a fairy rough evening.

The W looks like high end Yellow, will it go Orange for Mayo?? Sligo might also be included to yellow, in fact the central counties might need to be added to yellow warning also just for a few hours tomorrow night.









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17-11-2020, 23:21   #8
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Tight isobars of the W coast tomorrow evening.




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17-11-2020, 23:53   #9
pauldry
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Definitely a dangerous stormy period in Sligo tomorrow night. Probably gusting to 100 or 110. But 120 plus causes all sorts of chaos here so there might be a few branches about Thursday morning.
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18-11-2020, 09:39   #10
Graces7
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Gusty out here already. One of my cats got literally blown the length of the path in a sudden gust yesterday afternoon.

And the wild noise the last two nights has been intense. But all normal in these winter months.

All battened down and fuel etc well stocked inside. .

Not yet seen here a gale to equal those in Orkney! Callum was the nearest.

PS cat is fine! But a new experience for both of us .

west mayo offshore

Last edited by Graces7; 18-11-2020 at 10:10.
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18-11-2020, 10:18   #11
Meteorite58
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No great change in the charts today, a tad lighter in general , nothing too severe showing up, strong winds along Atlantic coasts, unless there is a big shift there seems to be no chance of any county going Orange warning level at this stage. Stronger winds cross the country quickly tonight.








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18-11-2020, 10:31   #12
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AROME 06Z has eased off the strongest winds



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18-11-2020, 12:03   #13
pauldry
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App on phone quite good at these storms and it says 90 to 100kph gusts top now.

Was 110 last night.
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18-11-2020, 12:15   #14
Oscar Bravo
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Nothing to severe on Sligo TAF, a chance of gusts up to 50 knots between 8pm & 9pm

TAF EISG 181100Z 1812/1821 23015KT 9999 SCT040
BECMG 1812/1814 22020G30KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1815/1820 4000 SHRA BKN012 SCT018CB
BECMG 1818/1820 30025G35KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1820/1821 31030G50KT
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18-11-2020, 12:46   #15
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Very strong squally gusts accompanying the showers. Getting stronger with each shower.

North Galway
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