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09-11-2020, 10:30   #46
pauldry
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A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.
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09-11-2020, 11:31   #47
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Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.
knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.
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09-11-2020, 13:10   #48
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knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.
I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.
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09-11-2020, 13:30   #49
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I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.
Yes, sleet and cold rain does not cut the mustard for me either. Something like December 2000 during Christmas week would do nicely. We are well overdue something like this during the winter months.
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10-11-2020, 07:23   #50
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Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"
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12-11-2020, 19:44   #51
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Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"
Ah now MT i got all excited when I saw you were the most recent update, thinking oooh maybe?

Nope. Situation normal. Sigh.
Feb it is.
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12-11-2020, 22:15   #52
M.T. Cranium
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I just posted something interesting on Net-weather where the top 23 November CET values were then analyzed for winter values to follow.

Basically what I found was that the mild signal was almost gone from the averages by December and entirely absent by Jan-Feb. That means a random distribution of mild, average and cold months will follow the mildest 10% of Novembers. In fact, November 1946 was tied 24th warmest. There were two milder than 1946 (1822, 1939) that were followed by a sub-zero January. And most of the really mild winters were not preceded by a mild January (2015-16 an exception).

There's no need to write off winter based on this November. But it does add some further weight to the back-loaded winter scenario.
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12-11-2020, 22:26   #53
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It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.
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12-11-2020, 23:40   #54
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It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.
Or that they all go off together.
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13-11-2020, 06:57   #55
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2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.
I was up in the Blue Stacks in Donegal. Well and truly snowed in for 6 weeks. Water frozen so melted snow to drink.... I had the two dogs then and they had a ball tunnelling in the snow.

Utterly beautiful but impractical as Ireland is just not equipped for such weather. One of the local priests was going about on skis. but unless you had a 4 wheel drive or good neighbours. ? Many old folk got stranded and there were cases of hypothermia.

Up there they did not deal with the roads which were literally three inches thick with solid ice.

We were saved by a local boardsie! Supplies of food and fuel... ( wonder if he is still around? )

In Orkney we had snow every year and we were equipped for it. As a farming community.. My Home Help arrived with supplies by tractor. One year the lorry with the snowplough attachment got stuck and had to be pulled out by a tractor. I was too far away to hear the language thankfully

But there was never the chaos we saw here, as it was normal.

Here I am well stocked for every eventuality; and have good neighbours.

You have to be ready for these events well in advance. Orkney and then Donegal taught me that with their opposites.

So be very careful what you wish for and be aware of the probable dangers!
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13-11-2020, 10:42   #56
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Nice GFS chart initializing so far with us on colder side of normal coming to the end of month. Thats it jinxed.
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13-11-2020, 12:37   #57
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Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.
Haven't looked at model runs besides glances at model threads but looks to me that there's an increasing chance of likelihood on mid-Atlantic ridging getting going in late November or at least the Euro high retrogressing to our west allowing heights to lower over Scandinavia. This is more indicative of what La Niña Novembers are characterised by as compared to what we've seen this November to now.

The La Niña signature has been overriden thus far by tropical convection and global patterns. It doesn't look to be a classic by any means and should not be garnered comparisons to late 2010 or even late 2017 but higher chance nevertheless of some cold snaps rather than full on Euro high, Icelandic low and mild, cloudy damp conditions.

As ever with weather, we'll see it through and see how she goes.
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13-11-2020, 12:56   #58
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I always like to see snow on the peaks (600m+) first. Always gives me hope of a cold spell.
I don't know about the rest of you but I've seen no white summits as yet.
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13-11-2020, 14:41   #59
pauldry
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Cant even see the mountains due to cloud
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13-11-2020, 16:11   #60
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My climacell app says there is no chance of the temperatures dipping before the beginning of January. It seems it will stay cloudy throughout the winter.
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