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01-11-2020, 17:53   #31
Working class heroes
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We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.
Boooooooooo!!!!
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02-11-2020, 14:57   #32
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November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.
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02-11-2020, 17:03   #33
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Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather
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02-11-2020, 18:33   #34
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we will get snow in December. Winter 2000 was snowy, winter 2010 was really snowy and 2020 will deliver. Also level 5 restrictions will lift in early December and you just know the moment lockdown is lifted and we can all get out and about again, the snow will arrive. There is something about 2020 even from a weather perspective, warmest and driest spring i can remember, followed by a wet summer when lockdown lifted. Since Summer ended, September and October were very pleasant. I have a feeling we will get some good snow in December.
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02-11-2020, 20:40   #35
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Looking at what's expected from a vague aspect for November

Wet til Wednesday
Dry and cool till about 7th
Mild with a little rain until about 15th
Slightly cooler and more unsettled until 25th
Then FI has very cold

But FI will probably be FI
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02-11-2020, 20:41   #36
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Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather
I disagree, mild equates with wet this time of year, the land could do with some time to dry out, especially the western half of the island.
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03-11-2020, 11:07   #37
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The GFS is not without interest again, but there is not much support for it. It's more likely in that Set up we'd end up with stalled systems over us, than the block far enough west to bring in our friend from the east.
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03-11-2020, 14:00   #38
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Ah the GFS cold Bias rears again

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Ccold%20bias%E2%80%9D%20means%20that,British%20and%20European%20weather%20agencies.&text=The%20existing%20NWS%20forecast%20model,accuracy%20to%20the%20European%20models.

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THE GOVERNMENT’S NEW weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”
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03-11-2020, 18:01   #39
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Is it that hard to fix the GFS to remove the cold bias? This was supposed to be the new and improved GFS. My a*se
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03-11-2020, 18:41   #40
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November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.
I don't think we will have any extended period of warmth, probably some WAA southerlies briefly but I think a more settled easterly quadrant flow will establish by around mid month, the models are today leaning back towards a colder solution in the extended range... but who knows, might be back to a euro high tomorrow, such is the nature of FI.

A sceuro high as an in between solution is definitely a possibility, Greeny heights seem to have disappeared for now but Scandi/Svalbard heights look a distinct possibility looking at the GFS/UKMO/ECM.
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04-11-2020, 09:26   #41
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2010 down here in Cork City wasn't very snowy, made a small snowman but nothing like 2018 but was the first year our water froze and it was bitterly cold, always remember the de-icer refreezing on the trip to school! I was only 10 at the time though.. so maybe don't remember fully but definitely wasn't very snowy

I would also prefer a 2018 repeat over the 2010!
Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.
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04-11-2020, 20:22   #42
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Both 2010 and 2018 were phenomenal snow events in Dublin. November and December 2010 was remarkable in that it was such sustained cold for nearly 6 weeks. I measured nearly 40cm in the garden on Christmas Day. I think the max temp on Christmas Day afternoon was around -4.

2018 was huge volumes of snow over a shorter period of time but the cold wasn’t as sustained and temps didn’t go as low.

Both hugely memorable though

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Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.
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08-11-2020, 21:42   #43
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I presume this thread is dead in the water
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08-11-2020, 22:41   #44
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I presume this thread is dead in the water
Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.
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09-11-2020, 09:32   #45
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I presume this thread is dead in the water
9 out of 10 years it is. Give or take.
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