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27-10-2020, 23:41   #1
Meteorite58
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Storm Aiden - Saturday October 31st

I think it is worth starting a thread highlighting the threat of very windy and wet weather over the Halloween Weekend, possibly stormy , this on the back of very wet weather on the days leading up to it.

MT has very good analysis here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...postcount=5800

Met Eireann has a very good Meteorologist's Commentary with a cracking title 'Howling Halloween' here https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Met Eireann have already said to keep an eye on expected further warnings.

Rivers will be running very high after the heavy rainfall over the coming days more so on the Western side of the country and especially along Atlantic coastal counties .Moving into Spring tides this weekend and with areas of deep LP and strong winds all adding to flooding potential.

Warnings and Title will need to be amended over the coming days if warranted.



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Current model standings has the ECMWF and UKMO quiet similar for Sat and Sunday with a deepening depression running up off the W coasts on Saturday and possibly another deepening area of LP closer to Ireland later Sat night into Sunday morning, ECM also goes on to show potentially very windy weather Monday also ( UKMO not developing this LP as much ) .

To note the GFS was showing very windy stormy conditions, backed off almost completely and is back showing some windy weather but nothing compared to the other models.

The shorter range models are a bit too far out yet to be reliable but are remarkably similar for now anyway. Of course will expect tracks and intensity to change one way or the other but for now showing strong wind event potential.










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28-10-2020, 00:40   #2
Meteorite58
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Current forecast from Met Eireann :

Next weekend: Very unsettled with occasional showers and longer spells of rain and strong predominantly south or southwest winds. There is a risk of extremely windy weather or even possibly stormy conditions in Atlantic coastal counties on Saturday and Saturday night. . Some sunny spells by day also. Maximum temperatures on Saturday 10 to 14 degrees, but cool on Sunday with values of 9 to 12 degrees.

Further outlook : Current indications are for unsettled conditions continuing in the early days of next week, with sunny spells and showers, some heavy and possibly thundery, with a risk of hail. Very windy on Monday, with very strong westerly winds, easing a little on Tuesday.



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ECMWF 18Z just out up to Sat 12.00




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28-10-2020, 04:07   #3
Graces7
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Thank you.

It is bad out here already , with strong winds/gales a great feature. As in marine warnings which affect coastal dwellings and 12 miles out to sea.

It has basic practical implications here as the ferries are in jeopardy in high winds; which is why the cupboards are well stocked . Rain/flooding is less of an issue for us. It depends too on wind direction,

Well, all normal autumn weather! Right on cue...truly ferocious !

West Mayo offshore

Last edited by Graces7; 28-10-2020 at 06:07.
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28-10-2020, 06:53   #4
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The key concept here is the range of possible outcomes, we have the energy from current Gulf of Mexico hurricane Zeta rapidly merging with a short wave being ejected out of an upper level low in Texas-Oklahoma (bringing them a freezing rain storm), and the combined energy races east about as fast as low pressure ever moves in the general area of this forecast scenario. That all means that tiny changes could build into significant alterations of forecasts on both timing and intensity.

Take the weekend part of this as a watch situation for now. The heavy rainfall for Thursday is pretty much locked in and a generally unsettled weekend scenario seems like a sure bet too, but these details could change. With these sorts of speeds in the jet stream, you have to think that some place is going to get nailed by the resulting frontal system.
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28-10-2020, 15:57   #5
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So nothing out of the ordinary for kerry then
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28-10-2020, 16:39   #6
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An unsettled day here in claremorris had very frequent showers .the 3 weather fronts coming between now into the weekend
Tonight into the early hours
Friday night into Saturday morning
Saturday night into sunday
Sunday day be an unsettled enough day in the west especially .
From then on into early days of next week be more of a possibility of clear and colder weather developing but still room for showers to pop up here and there . Welcome to wintertime .
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28-10-2020, 16:42   #7
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I just posted on the autumn thread as it has escalated swiftly here.

The sudden increase in noise had me outside

The ocean bay at the back is usually flat calm,. or occasionally ruffled, Now it has white breakers crashing in. A first time sight for me in my more than four years here

Exhilarating! And invigorating. The next while will be.... challenging. Pure volatile autumn weather at its finest.

West Mayo offshore
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28-10-2020, 18:04   #8
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Met eireann on radio 1 said they will be issuing weather warnings for this weekend tomorrow for heavy rain and stormy weather.
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28-10-2020, 19:17   #9
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ECM has been the most consistent I reckon for the first strong winds on Saturday but this is a very fast moving system, deepening as it reaches Ireland so by no means the exact track and strength. Very strong winds on the coasts and strong winds overland.

Most places would have strong winds at some stage during the day from a chart like this. Less than 60 hrs away but the nature of its approach, fast jet and deepening as it arrives will need watching right down to the wire perhaps.

Heavy rains ahead of the winds, possibly thundery.











Last edited by Meteorite58; 28-10-2020 at 19:22.
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28-10-2020, 19:29   #10
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The second quick moving system for now looks windy on the coasts and blustery overland. Again nothing certain about the track or strength but looking windy




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28-10-2020, 19:42   #11
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GFS showing it windier than previous runs but nothing too strong as yet.

ARPEGE starting to look like the ECM on Sat but timing much different and track keeping the strongest winds off shore but I think it will look more like the ECM on the next run.






ICON quite like the ECMWF but much stronger ( this has been showing a wide variety of tracks and strengths over the last few runs. I don't trust these wind speeds yet, would need to settle down and show consistency for a few runs.





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28-10-2020, 19:55   #12
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UKMO has a different look to it bringing the Low much further S on Sat morning with the strong winds missing the country, goes on to show a windy Sat night into Sun morning and then very windy along the W, NW on Sunday into Monday, quite windy on the Northern half of the country Sun into Mon morning.

If I was to guess I would think leaning more towards the ECM and the ARPEGE for now .

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29-10-2020, 03:40   #13
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Listening here and looking at met ie and I will be making calls in the morning re no deliveries as they are saying gusts up to 100 k. So no ferries.

The sound effects are awesome now. Gale gusts, deluges hurled against windows and roof.. Sheer power...
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29-10-2020, 08:05   #14
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Torrential rain in Galway now
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29-10-2020, 08:21   #15
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A soft day in North kerry.
Saw a neighbour out for a walk battling up the hill against the wind and rain.
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