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14-11-2020, 11:53   #121
Meteorite58
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Looking a t the last couple of runs it would look like there is a shift towards cooler weather but with a mix of warmer fronts going through. Does not look like getting overly cold at this stage, maybe a good frost towards the end of the week. Source of cold coming down from the N around Thurs /Fri but shifting in off the Atlantic from air sourced from Canada and Greenland after that. Bit of a spread in the models regarding the positioning of LP's which will determine wind strength and rainfall amounts. Lot of mixed weather it would seem , cool, breezy/ windy at times, periods of rain and showers, hail showers, maybe a bit thundery at times, dryer interludes but overall staying on the unsettled side would think.

Cold nights with frost over next weekend.

Northern half of the country might ight wake up to a few white mountain caps Fri morning and a hard frost.






Last edited by Meteorite58; 14-11-2020 at 11:57.
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19-11-2020, 11:10   #122
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Just to ramp up this thread so someone might post some charts it is trending a bit colder towards the last week of November. Could be frost, hail, sleet?
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19-11-2020, 14:51   #123
bazlers
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20ft snow drifts this winter
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19-11-2020, 22:30   #124
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Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.
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19-11-2020, 22:51   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno View Post
Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.
the GFS 18z says cold zonal so far and it's looking very wet (possibly sleety at times especially on high ground).
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20-11-2020, 08:00   #126
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Bloody 00z is now breezier and more mobile with little or no frost. A few 5 to 8c days but nights will also be about 2 to 4c as it's too breezy plus it will be 8 to 11c most days.

Last edited by pauldry; 20-11-2020 at 11:22.
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20-11-2020, 10:10   #127
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A mix bag from + 120hrs, no clear pattern but does look to mostly come in off the Atlantic but influenced by Canada and Greenland at times. On the cooler side with alternating cold and milder interludes, neither very cold or very mild, next Weds to Fri looks cool from the 3 main models . ECM wetter than the GFS and the ECM, showing some stormy weather around Sat 28th which MT alluded to in his forecast , difference in the models as not shown by the GFS.

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21-11-2020, 11:26   #128
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OMG



Arctic Unleashed
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21-11-2020, 13:33   #129
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Ah lads

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21-11-2020, 20:08   #130
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ECM showing colder weather + 120 hrs . Lots of cold nights with frost potential and quite wet at times, showing sleet potential also , might be seeing our first icy roads if these charts verify but as we have seen they have got downgraded quite a bit recently nearer to the time.

Purely for the craic, first bit of snow from the ECM . Might disappear though as quick as the storm it was showing a few runs ago for next weekend






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21-11-2020, 20:46   #131
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GFS getting cooler as well in the final days of the month and into the first week of December. Nothing that cold on offer but cold rain and sleety precipitation a possibility.



temperatures by the end of the end of month no more than 5 or 6C during the day.





Not totally sold on this cooler trend yet, could easily flip back to mild south-westerlies.
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26-11-2020, 13:14   #132
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What if ?

As mentioned by MT an interesting if somewhat unreliable run this morning showing a LP system developing around Biscay on the 4th. GFS lets it drift into Europe while the ECM deepens it to a potential storm and sends it up towards and in over Ireland. Windy on coasts but the most interesting outcome is this system running into very cold air over Ireland and dropping a large amount of snow a sort of sneaky beast maybe . Possibly blizzard like if a set up like this happened.

This set of charts could be just a one off wonder , big outlier, and not even feature on the next run but as it presents on this run to me it is meteorological beauty, a perfect storm so to speak, it would no doubt be disruptive but of huge interest to the weather community I'm sure but also of course not to get carried away either , as ever a lot of wheels would need to turn in the right direction for this to happen as presently shown.

FI is always a tricky and sometimes futile domain in which to try and foresee various weather potential and especially in this time of so little data input due to Covid but it is always interesting when there is a hint of an event.

Will see what comes up on the next runs .







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26-11-2020, 14:02   #133
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Yes, I was wondering what you model watchers would make of that chart, I don't think it has any real chance of happening as shown but the idea of a low moving up from the south instead of staying down around Iberia makes some sense, no strong signals for any wintry outcome yet, could rather easily transition into some sort of cold zonality with the usual marginal snow on hills.

As shown that would be a catastrophic storm for Britain especially areas around the Severn estuary, south Wales. Timing very similar to the 1703 storm which was Nov 25-26 old style, or around 8 Dec in Gregorian calendar.

Would not want to be seeing that on a more reliable time frame. Think it would be a pretty wild mixture of precip and wind fields over Ireland, from the looks of the day ten output the centre tracks through Ulster to get to where it ends up.
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26-11-2020, 16:10   #134
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That will be likely be gone on subsequent output, it's an outlier. I wonder are we seeing the early hints of a warming in the stratosphere? We seem a long way from a return to raging zonality going by the hemisphere profile, but of course that can change rather quickly.

Last edited by nacho libre; 26-11-2020 at 16:22.
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26-11-2020, 19:08   #135
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Well the latest ECM still has that low, albeit a bit more diluted. Looks like a cold, wet and windy day. There could be snow in the Wicklow area. If so i expect an imminent return to this forum
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