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02-10-2020, 12:25   #46
US2
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If we had this setup in the middle of January we'd certainly see a fair deal of snow, no doubt after this cold October is over and done with i'm expecting the mild south-westerlies to come back during November and December as per usual. It's been 10 years since we've had a cold December and even longer than that for a cold January.

January 2018 was cold ? Few morninngs of -8c I think I remember
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02-10-2020, 12:57   #47
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January 2018 was cold ? Few morninngs of -8c I think I remember
it was chilly at times with some frost but what I mean by a cold January is a properly cold January with snow trains rolling in off the Irish sea!
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02-10-2020, 13:39   #48
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October is the new Winter.

Its the next normal.

November and December are dark Springtime
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03-10-2020, 15:32   #49
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October is the new Winter.

Its the next normal.

November and December are dark Springtime
October is beginning to look like it will be a colder than average month, we are on a north-west to south-east alignment with our weather over the next few weeks and it's possible we may still get a northerly at some point. However it does look like the jet stream is going to push north again for November with flat westerlies or mild south-westerlies taking over, but that's along way off.
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05-10-2020, 20:02   #50
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Big changes appear to be on the way as the wet weather and Atlantic in general will be sent on an Autumn holiday.

Northern blocking looks like become a big player over the next few weeks with high pressure on the cards and dryer weather.

To begin with we pull in a very cold northerly from this weekend with winds from the Artic.



A chilly week to follow with some frosts possible and dryer conditions but showers cannot be ruled out, particularly in northern and eastern areas as high pressure stays just out to our west. The ridge of high pressure will attempt to move in over us but remaining cold throughout.





The high is then expected to move over to Scandinavia and this could pull in a fairly long fetch easterly from the Russian interior, frost could become fairly dominant and showers may get going across the east and this could possibly start to turn wintry over high ground, however this is a long way off..... If only this was December or January.....



Certainly something to watch, this is really shaping up to be a colder than average October, but will it last into the winter?
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06-10-2020, 14:16   #51
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October will probably be our winter. I really hope it does not turn out like last year, but once the PV gets going and the south westerlies set in we all know that's a pattern that is hard to shift.
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06-10-2020, 21:24   #52
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October will probably be our winter. I really hope it does not turn out like last year, but once the PV gets going and the south westerlies set in we all know that's a pattern that is hard to shift.
I too am getting very worried with how cold this October is becoming, this is happening 8 to 10 weeks too early and I find it very hard to believe we can maintain this pattern into November which is still autumn, never mind the heart of winter itself.

As we are well aware Zonal muck can go on for months and months without interruption, while winter cold spells and warm summer spells rarely last for more than one or two weeks and it's back to normal service.

Fingers crossed if we do get the mild zonality back in November, that we can have another go at this in December or January. I'm completely fed up of cold spells happening final days of February and into March. We can still get cold during overall mild winters, even a 3 day snowy period in an overall mild winter would satisfy most people.
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07-10-2020, 08:51   #53
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90% of Decembers must be Zonal muck

You can almost guarantee it now

Maybe January will be unzonal muck
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07-10-2020, 10:57   #54
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The trends are not showing that cold. Maybe .5 to 1 degree below in some places.
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07-10-2020, 12:16   #55
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The trends are not showing that cold. Maybe .5 to 1 degree below in some places.
next week could be 1 to 2 degrees below average and then the trend is to back to normal or slightly milder than average for November.





Temperatures are set to become average in the second half of October so once we get next week out of the way it should start to warm up slightly.

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08-10-2020, 10:10   #57
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More settled and less rain and wind than of late it would seem, wet and damp at times but rain looks lighter and more patchy, perhaps some cloudy days. Staying generally on the cool side, some quite cold nights perhaps leading to frosts.










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08-10-2020, 15:54   #58
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The GFS ensembles now run out to 4 weeks. The 2 weeks ensembles are still available but there is an extended option now too. Of course these would be even more unreliable than the regular 2 week ensembles but I thought it'd show it here just for fun. As they have a months worth of data they are even more tricky to read than before. This is the months trend for Dublin and it appears we keep slightly cooler than average conditions all the way into November with alot of rainfall associated with it.



As we move into November the precipitation remains constant but it does start to take on a sleety nature towards the end of the run during November.
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11-10-2020, 02:04   #59
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I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"
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11-10-2020, 12:24   #60
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I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"
very, very unlikely. Even if we end up with a cold winter the chances of it snowing on Christmas Day would still be very low.
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